Coup Plotted in Thailand

Two major political events have happened recently. First, the red-shirt people continued their rallies after they were buoyed by the success in their campaign to evict Privy Councilor Surayut Chulanon from Khao Yai Thiang. In the second event, two major coalition partners bypassed the coalition-leader Democrat Party to push for charter amendments.
The rallies by the red-shirt people and the attempts, led by Chat Thai Phatthana Party de facto leader Banhan Sinlapa-acha to pressure the Democrat to support charter amendments, would not lead to House dissolution and a new election.

Uncertainty Inside Army
Most of all, a coup can be ruled out. There may be undercurrents and uncertainty inside the Army, but these things must be dealt with by the Army top brass themselves. Those, who dare to roll out tanks to the roads, will not only have to fight against their fellow soldiers but they will also face resistance from the people who love and cherish democracy.
No matter how the red-shirt movement denied it, its rallies were made definitely to make headlines before the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Office will make a ruling in the Bt76-billion assets seizure case against former Prime Minister Thaksin Chinnawat.
The red-shirt movement does not aim for House dissolution and a new election in the near future. Although the Phuea Thai Party feels that it has an advantage when contesting the next election and will have a chance to form and lead the next government, the party now has a major problem. That is, it is not sure whether it will be ready to contest the election or not.

Important Factor
To start with the Phuea Thai could not even be sure whether it would receive financial support from the same major supporter if the Bt76-billion assets were gone. But I think the most important factor is that the Phuea Thai lacks the real party leader. The party is in the similar situation with the red-shirt movement whose leaders are only sergeants. These sergeants could only wait to carry out orders from the boss.
And when these sergeants tried to initiate their own moves, they always made blunders, such as planning to rally at the Sirirat Hospital and demonstrate at the Suvarnabhumi International Airport. Thaksin is also far away to control the game and his family members lack enough clout to substitute his role.

The Repurcussion
Turmoil will definitely break out if the party has to set its election candidates in the next three or four months. Fights will definitely erupt between professional politicians, who have been working for the party for a long time, and former senior military officers, who recently joined the party. The former military officers would definitely not contest the constituency-based elections as they do not want to go out to beg from the people's support. So, the former military officers will fight for quota of party-list candidates and the current party-list MPs will definitely not give away their quota.
No one would easily give in and no one in the party has enough clout to make a decision that would be accepted by the two sides without causing rifts. So, the Phuea Thai could be broken apart just when the party is selecting its election candidates.
This is why I dare to say that the Phuea Thai does not want to contest an election now.
The coalition partners are now having some conflicts with the coalition-leader Democrat. In particular, leaders of coalition parties feel that Prime Minister Aphisit Wetchachiwa is too distant from them although they are in the same coalition government. Despite this situation, the coalition partners are still happy to be parts of the government and do not want to lose their MP status for now.
The coalition partners and the leader are like teeth and the lips when they have conflicts. The coalition partners will also feel the pain if they bite the lips too hard.

Red-Shirted Movement
It should be watched closely whether and how the red-shirted movement, which is the front army of the big boss from Dubai, will launch an attack early February. We should wait and see what the next order from Dubai will be.
February could be the last chance for Thaksin to try to win back his power and assets. After February ends, the political situation as well as the red-shirt movement itself will completely change.