Coup Plotted in Thailand

Two major political events have happened recently. First, the red-shirt people continued their rallies after they were buoyed by the success in their campaign to evict Privy Councilor Surayut Chulanon from Khao Yai Thiang. In the second event, two major coalition partners bypassed the coalition-leader Democrat Party to push for charter amendments.
The rallies by the red-shirt people and the attempts, led by Chat Thai Phatthana Party de facto leader Banhan Sinlapa-acha to pressure the Democrat to support charter amendments, would not lead to House dissolution and a new election.

Uncertainty Inside Army
Most of all, a coup can be ruled out. There may be undercurrents and uncertainty inside the Army, but these things must be dealt with by the Army top brass themselves. Those, who dare to roll out tanks to the roads, will not only have to fight against their fellow soldiers but they will also face resistance from the people who love and cherish democracy.
No matter how the red-shirt movement denied it, its rallies were made definitely to make headlines before the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Office will make a ruling in the Bt76-billion assets seizure case against former Prime Minister Thaksin Chinnawat.
The red-shirt movement does not aim for House dissolution and a new election in the near future. Although the Phuea Thai Party feels that it has an advantage when contesting the next election and will have a chance to form and lead the next government, the party now has a major problem. That is, it is not sure whether it will be ready to contest the election or not.

Important Factor
To start with the Phuea Thai could not even be sure whether it would receive financial support from the same major supporter if the Bt76-billion assets were gone. But I think the most important factor is that the Phuea Thai lacks the real party leader. The party is in the similar situation with the red-shirt movement whose leaders are only sergeants. These sergeants could only wait to carry out orders from the boss.
And when these sergeants tried to initiate their own moves, they always made blunders, such as planning to rally at the Sirirat Hospital and demonstrate at the Suvarnabhumi International Airport. Thaksin is also far away to control the game and his family members lack enough clout to substitute his role.

The Repurcussion
Turmoil will definitely break out if the party has to set its election candidates in the next three or four months. Fights will definitely erupt between professional politicians, who have been working for the party for a long time, and former senior military officers, who recently joined the party. The former military officers would definitely not contest the constituency-based elections as they do not want to go out to beg from the people's support. So, the former military officers will fight for quota of party-list candidates and the current party-list MPs will definitely not give away their quota.
No one would easily give in and no one in the party has enough clout to make a decision that would be accepted by the two sides without causing rifts. So, the Phuea Thai could be broken apart just when the party is selecting its election candidates.
This is why I dare to say that the Phuea Thai does not want to contest an election now.
The coalition partners are now having some conflicts with the coalition-leader Democrat. In particular, leaders of coalition parties feel that Prime Minister Aphisit Wetchachiwa is too distant from them although they are in the same coalition government. Despite this situation, the coalition partners are still happy to be parts of the government and do not want to lose their MP status for now.
The coalition partners and the leader are like teeth and the lips when they have conflicts. The coalition partners will also feel the pain if they bite the lips too hard.

Red-Shirted Movement
It should be watched closely whether and how the red-shirted movement, which is the front army of the big boss from Dubai, will launch an attack early February. We should wait and see what the next order from Dubai will be.
February could be the last chance for Thaksin to try to win back his power and assets. After February ends, the political situation as well as the red-shirt movement itself will completely change.

Thaksin’s Assets Seizure Case

The Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions will hand down the verdict on the seizure of Police Lieutenant Colonel Thaksin Chinnawat's 76 billion baht assets plus interest on Friday, 26 February 2010.
Several people will keep an eye on the day which is the day of an important political changing point, whether or not the verdict will be in favor of Pol Lt Col Thaksin Chinnawat. It is believed that before the verdict day, political situation inside and outside the parliament will be increasingly intensified. The intensity will reach its peak after the judge panel in this assets seizure case finishes reading the verdict in the evening of that day. The judge in charge of preparing the verdict is Somsak Netmai.
For this reason, right now the government and armed force leaders have closely analysed political situation and prepared to handle political activities before or after 26 February 2010. For example, Thaworn Senniam, the deputy interior minister, has announced that the government is ready to handle mass rallies by red shirted people. He only hopes the mass rally to be carried out under the framework of the law. However, if the situation was to turn violent, the government might have to invoke the security act in a bid to be prepared for the situation.

Clarification on Progress
At the same time, looking at the moves by red-shirted people, the leaders and MPs of Phuea Thai Party have tried not to talk about the Supreme Court's verdict reading on 26 February 2010 that how the verdict would affect the red shirted people and Phuea Thai Party's political moves, ranging from the no-confidence debate to the red shirted people's mass rallies. They only talked about places that the red shirted people will hold rallies. For example, they will hold a rally at Khao Soidao Resort in Chanthaburi Province on 23 January 2010. They will gather in front of the Justice Ministry to demand the clarification on the progress of the petition for the royal pardon for Pol Lt Col Thaksin that they have submitted.
The reason that the red shirted people and the Phuea Thai Party have not shown their clear stance about the no-confidence debate and the mass rally might be that they did not want to be viewed that they were planning their moves for political effect on the asset seizure case, both before and after the verdict was read. It is a political strategy that is understandable.
However, what many people are watching is that before the Supreme Court reads the verdict on the assets seizure case, political pressure related to the voting by nine members on the judge panel is expected. The pressure could be in the form of the release of information that could confuse the public about the working process of the Supreme Court in this case. For example, a rumor might be released among people in politics that the judges have already made decision on the verdict in advance. Or, there might be rumors on lobbying attempts, which are all inappropriate. And there might be an attempt to forecast the court's verdict that is to be handed down despite the fact that members of the judge panel have not yet voted on the verdict.

Judicial Process
In this kind of attempts to discredit the judicial process, relevant people intend to discredit judges' working process and also to create political pressure on this case.
However, the public could be ensured that they could trust the court's ruling. This is because the ruling is a result of a working process which has been carried out neutrally and fairly according to the law and facts. The working process has not been politicized. The court has not treated the defendant with double standard as certain group of people has tried to mislead the public.
The verdict is a result of the hearing of relevant facts from all facets, from all witnesses of the plaintiff, which is the public prosecutor, and witnesses of the defendant, which is Pol Lt Col Thaksin; witnesses summoned by the court, and documents that are evidence in this case. For this reason, it is believed people who try to pressure the court in this asset seizure case would not be able to do what they want.

Invoking Thailand Internal Security Act

Many surveys in fact have clearly reflected the same thing. The latest one by the Assumption University's Academic Network for Community Happiness Observation and Research shows that 61.4 per cent of respondents believe Thai society will be peaceful if former Prime Minister Thaksin Chinnawat stops his political movements. Just 38.6 per cent think otherwise. The survey was conducted among 1,292 families in 17 provinces across the country on 29 August.
Survey Findings
The survey also finds that Thais' happiness index soared to 7.18 in August, up from 5.92 in July. The findings, however, reflect that political climate and the unrest in deep South have weighed heavily in the hearts of the respondents. Up to 53.1 per cent of the respondents said they agreed a major red-shirt rally initially scheduled on 30 August should be postponed.
Approximately 36.8 per cent others disagreed. As many as 47.4 per cent of those polled said the incumbent administration should be allowed to stay on in office and work.
According to the Suan Dusit Poll, 52.48 per cent of 1,137 respondents in Bangkok and its adjacent province believe the rally postponement is just a political game. Some 27.59 per cent say the rally, even postponed, makes them worried.
About 30.27 per cent wish to see a peaceful rally, if the rally will have to take place. Up to 34.9 per cent urge the government and red-shirt folks to prioritize public order.
All the survey findings suggest that the majority of people do not agree with red-shirt folks and the Phuea Thai Party. The opposition party, in particular, has been pressuring Prime Minister Aphisit Wetchachiwa to lift the Internal Security Act saying that the imposition of such law hinders their scheduled rally. According to the Suan Dusit Poll, up to 76 per cent of Bangkok residents support Aphisit's decision to invoke in the Internal Security Act. Just nine per cent others are against the decision.
Eradicating Violence
It may sound convincing to say that invoking the Internal Security Act for the purpose of preventing or stopping violence will significantly revive the Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC). Its powerful role has otherwise been fading since the war against the Communist Party of Thailand ended. If the ISOC is once again actively powerful, so is the military.
However, one should take into account as to whether general laws, not the special one like Internal Security Act, are enough to handle the seizure of the Government House, the unlawful occupation of airports, or Songkran riots.
Do not believe in a claim that the Internal Security Act will give the government the power to ban a rally, arrest people or send them to re-education camp without a court order. Such claim is not true. Under the Internal Security Act, the government cannot ban a peaceful, unarmed rally at all. What the government can do is just to bar people from entering, leaving or occupying a specific area only. To date, the Aphisit-led government has also made it clear that there will be no ban on peaceful rallies.
Special Laws
Indeed, the Internal Security Act is the least stringent of all special laws. When Thaksin was the government leader, his administration passed the Emergency Decree on Public Administration in Emergency Situation BE 2548. This decree in fact gives officials far-reaching authority.
Armed with it, the officials can ban any gathering and arrest suspects without being held responsible for civil, criminal or disciplinary actions. The state of emergency has been imposed in the deep South for more than five consecutive years already.