Seven Groups Suspected of Involvement in Recent M79 Attacks in Thailand

Since the Thai politics entered a period of vacuum four or five years ago, there were several protests, first by the "Yellow Shirts" People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) and now by the "Red-Shirted" United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD). Political moves on Ratchadamnoen Avenue have always been under the watchful eyes of security agencies. And one worrying conclusion was agreed: Many groups of people are trying to create violence in order to effect political changes.

Waging Political War
The M79 grenade launcher has become the major weapon of choice in waging this "political war." The people on the streets have heard about this weapon for a long time. But they appear to hear about it more frequently after an attack on the Daily News' office, then other attacks on the Yellow-Shirted protesters gathering to drive out "nominee governments" at the Makkhawan Rangsan Bridge and later at Government House.

When the political power was shifted from Thaksin Shinawatra's group into the hands of the Democrat Party and the young Aphisit Wetchachiwa, there were protests by Red-Shirted. That was followed by M79-related incidents at a record number never been seen before.

Even the military became a target of attacks, including the Army chief's office and the Defense Ministry. Other targets included the Public Health Ministry and the attack took place shortly after the Cabinet completed its meeting there on 23 March. The attacks took place even at a time when Bangkok is still under the Internal Security Act.

Creating Confusion
The incidents have come under watchful eyes of intelligence and security agencies which are silently working on the cases. Information involving the groups suspected of being behind the M79 attacks is being collected. There are two main groups: those who want to pass the blame on the opposite side and those who want to create confusion in the country.

The security agencies are particularly interested in seven groups of people which also have subgroups within them.

Groups Involved
The first group is led by "Sia Piak," a former hard-line taxi driver who is close to "the old power clique." He has a good knowledge about traffic routes in Bangkok. His team is small and consists of amateurs but they are daring. Investigators are convinced this group was responsible for some incidents in which the M79 was fired and grenades were thrown. This group is connected to Sawai Yangsanthia, a 42-year-old man suspected of involvement with the grenade-throwing attack on the Bangkok Bank's Silom branch on 27 February. One "gentleman's agreement" among the group's members is that they will never implicate others when arrested.

The second group is led by "Se K," a high-ranking soldier who is a close aide to a senior politician and ex-general. He even wins the respect of the "famous Se". Security sources suspect that "Se K" had tried repeatedly to incite a coup. And when the "big boss" made his political moves, violent attacks often took place. ("Se," which is short for "senathikan", refers to military officers who pass the Command and General Staff College.)

The third group belongs to the "famous Se." On many occasions, his warnings that initially appeared to be nonsense turned out to become true. Many members of this group have come under the attention of intelligence and security agencies, such as "Sergeant M," the group leader's trusted aide who often is seen going places with him. The man was charged with murder and it was found that he provided weapons for other group members to carry out attacks.

Other group members include "Sergeant R," who is the chief bodyguard and another trusted aide to the group leader, followers Daeng, Nat, Sut and Rin. There are also "Wan," who is believed by investigators to hurt a lawyer of former police chief General Seriphisut Temiyawet while going to a court, and "Sek," who is believed to be responsible for many M79 attacks. Moreover, there are many other people who agree to join the group but make their moves independently.

The fourth group is led by a "famous general." Recent reports say he has been at odds with the old power clique and his role has been shunted aside. But behind the scenes, he is still making his moves secretly, albeit not as actively as before.

The fifth is a group of hardliners led by a violence-prone former singer. This group has now got special attention from the intelligence and security agencies since they created disturbances last year. They have been suspiciously inactive over the last few days, which led to suspicion among intelligence officials that they are preparing for something.

The sixth group is led by an MP in the Northeast. It has many members but most of them are grassroots people. Although they are not viewed as posing a severe threat, the group remains under a watchful eye of the authorities.

The seventh group is loyal to the former leader. They are active in northeastern provinces and are viewed as hardliners. This group made it clear they are against the Aphisit government and they are now under a close watch by the authorities. Many of their threats of violent incidents turned out to become true.

All of the groups are now politically active. The intelligence and security authorities are merely monitoring their activities and gathering information. There has been no sufficient evidence to positively link them to any of the recent attacks.

Thai Government To Survive Red-Shirted Coming Onslaught

The period 16 February to 26 February, the date set for the court to give its verdict on the case regarding the seizure of the 78-billion-baht frozen assets of Police Lieutenant Colonel Thaksin Shinawatra and his family, is the 10 days of danger. In related developments, four major incidents which were seen as the signs of real "danger" for the Aphisit Wetchachiwa government happened during the past weekend. The prime minister's motorcade was disrupted by ill-intention motorists twice on the Yommarat expressway ramp. An M79 grenade was fired into the Rajamangala University's Phra Nakhon campus. Three pounds of C-4 explosive was discovered near the Supreme Court's Division for Political Post Holders where the assets seizure case will be decided.

Attacking Government Security System
Security agencies have assessed the situation that the threat to the government's security is classified as the "red code," which is the highest level and there are four groups who are suspected of being involved in the M79 grenade attack and the planting of the C-4 explosive as follows:
1. A government-supported group who was assigned to create a violent situation to "justify" the imposition of the Internal Security Act or martial law to control the anti-government protesters in Bangkok and surrounding areas.
2. A certain military group who wants to stage a "coup d'etat" to seize the power from the government. This is because a violent situation will lead to the seizure of power by military force and setting up of an interim government.
3. The red-shirted group which has been broken apart into small uncontrollable factions. Among them there are those who believe in the use of "violence" and are skillful in using weapons. These people want to show off their prowess and potential to the government.
4. A group who wants to create a chaos to preempt the court's decision of the assets seizure case.

Unrest Situation
However, the security agencies have assumed that the incidents which can lead to an unrest situation will solely be triggered by the antigovernment elements. This includes the rallies of the red-clad protesters in 38 provinces, activities of the opposition MPs under the support of Thaksin, and the coming no-confidence House debate by the Phuea Thai Party. Amid the coup rumors, activities and big rallies of the red-shirted group are designed to give support to the Phuea Thai Party and members of the Thai Rak Thai House No 111 (banned politicians of the now defunct Thai Rak Thai Party). Particularly, the red-clad protesters will hold big rallies during the no-confidence debate against the government. They also plan to lead the masses to surround the "Parliament."
At the same time, the red-shirted group upcountry will launch their people's revolutionary (Red-in-the-Whole-Land) strategy by staging rallies to surround the city halls and important government offices in the provinces. Meanwhile, the rallies in Bangkok will be held at Sanam Luang grounds, along Ratchadamnoen Avenue, the Equestrian Plaza, and around Government House.

Tough Time Ahead
However, authorities have anticipated that the number of participants of the rallies should not exceed 60,000. The number of the protesters will be the highest only on the first day of the rallies and decline after that just like when it happened during the "Songkran bloodshed" in the capital in mid-April 2009. Cautions must be taken against any attempts among the red-shirted groups to "create a situation" leading to more violence.
The security agencies are still of the opinion that financial support is the main factor that determines the success of the red-shirted groups' attempts to trigger violence, number of rally participants, and how long the rallies will last.
After all, they still firmly believe that the government, security agencies, and armed forces are capable of coping with the situation as long as the government of Aphisit and the military stand together side by side and the silent-power groups of students and majority of the people in Bangkok do not joint the red-shirt movement. It will probably be difficult to topple the Aphisit government solely by red-shirt people from the provinces!

Coup Plotted in Thailand

Two major political events have happened recently. First, the red-shirt people continued their rallies after they were buoyed by the success in their campaign to evict Privy Councilor Surayut Chulanon from Khao Yai Thiang. In the second event, two major coalition partners bypassed the coalition-leader Democrat Party to push for charter amendments.
The rallies by the red-shirt people and the attempts, led by Chat Thai Phatthana Party de facto leader Banhan Sinlapa-acha to pressure the Democrat to support charter amendments, would not lead to House dissolution and a new election.

Uncertainty Inside Army
Most of all, a coup can be ruled out. There may be undercurrents and uncertainty inside the Army, but these things must be dealt with by the Army top brass themselves. Those, who dare to roll out tanks to the roads, will not only have to fight against their fellow soldiers but they will also face resistance from the people who love and cherish democracy.
No matter how the red-shirt movement denied it, its rallies were made definitely to make headlines before the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Office will make a ruling in the Bt76-billion assets seizure case against former Prime Minister Thaksin Chinnawat.
The red-shirt movement does not aim for House dissolution and a new election in the near future. Although the Phuea Thai Party feels that it has an advantage when contesting the next election and will have a chance to form and lead the next government, the party now has a major problem. That is, it is not sure whether it will be ready to contest the election or not.

Important Factor
To start with the Phuea Thai could not even be sure whether it would receive financial support from the same major supporter if the Bt76-billion assets were gone. But I think the most important factor is that the Phuea Thai lacks the real party leader. The party is in the similar situation with the red-shirt movement whose leaders are only sergeants. These sergeants could only wait to carry out orders from the boss.
And when these sergeants tried to initiate their own moves, they always made blunders, such as planning to rally at the Sirirat Hospital and demonstrate at the Suvarnabhumi International Airport. Thaksin is also far away to control the game and his family members lack enough clout to substitute his role.

The Repurcussion
Turmoil will definitely break out if the party has to set its election candidates in the next three or four months. Fights will definitely erupt between professional politicians, who have been working for the party for a long time, and former senior military officers, who recently joined the party. The former military officers would definitely not contest the constituency-based elections as they do not want to go out to beg from the people's support. So, the former military officers will fight for quota of party-list candidates and the current party-list MPs will definitely not give away their quota.
No one would easily give in and no one in the party has enough clout to make a decision that would be accepted by the two sides without causing rifts. So, the Phuea Thai could be broken apart just when the party is selecting its election candidates.
This is why I dare to say that the Phuea Thai does not want to contest an election now.
The coalition partners are now having some conflicts with the coalition-leader Democrat. In particular, leaders of coalition parties feel that Prime Minister Aphisit Wetchachiwa is too distant from them although they are in the same coalition government. Despite this situation, the coalition partners are still happy to be parts of the government and do not want to lose their MP status for now.
The coalition partners and the leader are like teeth and the lips when they have conflicts. The coalition partners will also feel the pain if they bite the lips too hard.

Red-Shirted Movement
It should be watched closely whether and how the red-shirted movement, which is the front army of the big boss from Dubai, will launch an attack early February. We should wait and see what the next order from Dubai will be.
February could be the last chance for Thaksin to try to win back his power and assets. After February ends, the political situation as well as the red-shirt movement itself will completely change.

Phuea Thai Expects to Topple Government With Censure Debate

The lack of a real leader caused the Phuea Thai Party to send conflicting signals regarding to the charter amendments, and thus throwing the party into disarray.

Chaloem Yubamrung, the chairman of Phuea Thai MPs, announced that the party would boycott the efforts of the tripartite whips--the coalition, opposition and Senate whips--to amend the Constitution. Chaloem claimed that the Democrat Party was not sincere in pushing for charter amendments but the coalition leader simply used the charter amendments as a pretext to try to cling on to power as long as possible.

He said the Phuea Thai has earlier resolved to oppose the six amendments as proposed by the reconciliation committee on political reform and constitutional amendments and the party is also opposed to the national referendum. He said he would have the Phuea Thai whips inform the tripartite whip meeting, held recently, that the Phuea Thai would pull out from the amendment process.

But what happened puzzled everybody because Phuea Thai chief whip Witthaya Buranasiri and other Phuea Thai representatives continued to participate in the tripartite meeting. They also expressed their belief that the tripartite whips' efforts to amend the charter were really aimed at bringing about reconciliation, not for buying time.

Six Charter Amendments
Witthaya said Chaloem made the announcement because he simply wanted to urge the government to have sincerity toward charter amendments. Witthaya said the opposition did not boycott the charter amendments as most people understood. So, Chaloem was humiliated by his own party members because the Phuea Thai whips still participated in the tripartite efforts to amend the charter.

This was not the first time that Phuea Thai leading members sent out conflicting messages but they did it several times already because they tried to steal the show to exert their leadership in the party when there has been no real leader. What happened caused the Phuea Thai members to feel uneasy because they analyzed that the party had fallen into the charter amendment trap of the government. These dissatisfied members saw that the Phuea Thai whips' decision to join the amendment process was tantamount to extending the government's term.

They know that the Democrat is trying to delay the charter amendments as long as possible by using the national referendum as a tool. Prime Minister Aphisit Wetchachiwa and the coalition whips said the amendments would take about nine months or might be done in about the middle of next year. Then, the prime minister would consider whether the House should be dissolved and new election held or not.

Now, the Phuea Thai's goal is to have the 2007 Constitution annulled at all costs as the party sees that this version of the charter was enacted to eliminate the Thaksin regime following the 2006 coup.

The easiest way to annul the 2007 charter, which will make the party look best and allow it to provide the best explanation to the public, is to call for the reinstatement of the 1997 Constitution. Using this strategy, the Phuea Thai will have a legitimacy to campaign to change the supreme law of the country, which is a sensitive issue that could lead to opposition from the members of the society.

But the problem for the Phuea Thai is that the government is now in control of the charter amendment game. And if the Phuea Thai abruptly pulls out from the amendment process, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the party will immediately be attacked that they are not sincere to support the efforts to bring about reconciliation. They will be criticized that way because the amendment process has progressed this far not because of the government or senators.

Six-Point Charter
Earlier political pressure related to charter amendments led to the formation of the reconciliation committee for political reform and constitutional amendments. The panel has studied the political problems and concluded that the Constitution should be amended in six points as following:

1. To change the way how MPs are elected by amending Article 93 to Article 98.

2. To change the way how to elect senators by amending Article 111 to Article 121.

3. To increase the government's power in determining what kind of foreign contracts that need to seek parliamentary approval before signing. This point need to be changed by amending Article 190.

4. To change penalties against political parties and lift political ban against the party leader and executives by amending Article 237.

5. To amend Article 265 to allow MPs to become political officials.

6. To amend Article 266 (1) to allow MPs and senators to initiate how to solve the people's problems.

Reconciliation Trap
However, the process has gone this far because of an agreement of all sides concerned to tackle the political crisis following the Songkran riots. The political violence prompted the government, the opposition and senators to jointly form the reconciliation committee. The committee spent two months to study the political problems and resolved to amend the charter in six points. The proposals of the reconciliation panel led to the formation of the tripartite whips to push for the six charter amendments.

And the Phuea Thai has joined every step of the process. Moreover, the Phuea Thai whips managed to raise their voice to pressure the government to support several issues related to the six amendments. And it has not been clear yet that the government is not sincere towards charter amendments as alleged.

In particular, Senator Direk Thuengfang, chairman of the reconciliation panel who is regarded as an impartial person, is still among the Senate whips who take part in the tripartite efforts to amend the charter. And all sides in the tripartite whips agreed to have a public referendum held on the charter amendments. As a result, the Phuea Thai has been caught in the reconciliation trap.

So, if it makes an about-face to abandon the amendment process, its image will be affected. As a result, it will have to a make u-turn to announce that it has not abandoned the reconciliation process as declared by Chaloem.

As we have pointed out, the six charter amendments are trivial for the Phuea Thai because its main goal is to kill the entire charter. Since it is forced to join the game in which it is on the disadvantage, the Phuea Thai must learn to make use of the tiny game to gain advantage in the main game - seeking to annul the 2007 charter.

Supporting Reconciliation
The Phuea Thai remains in the tiny game to retain its image as supporting reconciliation. At the same time, it also want to take advantage of the process to push for the point of the amendment it wants most--to annul the penalties of party dissolution and five-year political ban against all party executives if a party executive violates the election law.

For the main game's goal, the Phuea Thai wants to use the space provided by the tripartite whips to push for the annulment of the 2007 charter. It is seeking to annul the 2007 charter by announcing its stand against holding a public referendum on the six amendments. It claimed that since the government would waste up to 2 billion for holding the referendum, the referendum should be held on the main principle as to whether the people want the 1997 or 2007 versions of the charter.

Doing so the party will manage to keep its campaign "to bring back the 1997 charter" alive and the party hopes to use this campaign theme in the next election.

And the party will pressure Aphisit to keep his promise that once the six amendments are done, he will immediately return the ruling mandate to the people. So, the Phuea Thai will use the charter amendment game to besiege the government to leave the office as soon as possible.

Government's Problems
The Phuea Thai realizes that the longer the government stays in office, the more stability it will have and the more difficult the Phuea Thai will be able to topple the coalition or win the next elections. But if the House is dissolved soon, the Phuea Thai will have a chance to win the next polls.

The Phuea Thai expects that the government's problems will turn into a crisis that topples the coalition in 2010. The problems will stem from the disputes over the shares in the budget cake under the Strengthening Thailand stimulus package and corruption in the projects under the package, which have been exposed on the daily basis now.

And Phuea Thai plans to hold a no-confidence debate against the government in the next parliamentary session or no later than May. When the Phuea Thai exposes alleged corruption in the Strengthening Thailand projects, the party hopes that the government will run out of legitimacy to remain in office. By that time, the charter amendments will have already been done.

Attacks Against Government
By the time, the Phuea Thai may have already used the referendum campaign to arouse the people to fully want the reinstatement of 1997 charter. By that time, the Phuea Thai will step up attacks against the government and make use of internal rifts among the coalition partners together with Thaksin's popularity, which is still strong. Moreover, the party has begun pulling itself together after former Prime Minister Chawalit Yongchaiyut joined the party to unite the Phuea Thai members.

All of these factors will give the Phuea Thai not only a chance to win the next election, but also an opportunity to win its long-term game to annul the 2007 charter and dissolve the current independent organizations. It will be able to achieve those goals by drafting the red-shirt version of the charter and grant amnesty to the big boss and his cronies so that they could return to power again.

ASEAN Flexes Muscles To Free All Myanmar Political Prisoners

The Myanmar court has commuted by half the penalty for Aung San Suu Kyi, the Myanmar democratic icon and former leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD). The verdict on August 11, 2009 sentenced Aung San Suu Kyi to three years in prison on the charge of violating the internal security law. The court has recently commuted it to one-and-a-half year, or 18 months, and changed the detention method from imprisonment to house arrest. For John Yettaw, an American who swam to Suu Kyi's residence, the court handed him a seven-year imprisonment for three charges. The court gave him three-year imprisonment for violating internal security law, another three years for illegal entry into Myanmar, and another one year for swimming in a place where swimming is prohibited. What have happened is a challenge for The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that is a group of countries in Southeast Asia. It tested ASEAN whether it has enough potential to convince Myanmar to restore solidarity among its people.

ASEAN Views on Court's Ruling
It is pleasing that two days after the court sentenced Suu Kyi and a 58-year-old American who swam across a lake to see Suu Kyi, on the late morning of the 12th of August, Thailand on the capacity of ASEAN chairman has issued a statement expressing disappointment over the Myanmar court's verdict. The statement also cites the demand of ASEAN foreign ministers that attended the 42nd ASEAN Ministerial Meeting (AMM) and the 16th ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in July 2009 in Phuket province that the Myanmar Government should immediately release all political prisoners, including Suu Kyi, so that those people could take part in the 2010 general elections.

The determined stance of Thailand under the leadership of the Aphisit Wetchachiwa government was a consequence of the fact that the foreign ministries of several countries in ASEAN and in Europe and the United States have expressed dissatisfaction about the unfairly tough penalties handed down to Suu Kyi and the American man by the Myanmar court and military junta. For this reason, the Aphisit government should consult leaders of other ASEAN countries on further actions that the organization should take to pressure the Myanmar military junta to abide by the ASEAN statement, by immediately releasing Suu Kyi and other political prisoners. Then, those people would be able to run in the 2010 general elections.

Throughout the past several years, Myanmar has been a country ruled by an absolute military dictatorship that limits people's rights and liberty. Politicians who were on the opposite side of those in power, and people who disagreed with the government have been killed, arrested and detained and tortured with several methods, particularly Suu Kyi has been held under house arrest.

Sanction Against Myanmar
Although the United States and European countries have imposed economic sanction against Myanmar to pressure the Myanmar junta to release and free Suu Kyi and restore democracy in Myanmar, the sanction has not influenced the Myanmar military junta to adjust its authoritarian policy implementation.

There have been crackdowns against those dissenting the Myanmar junta. The foreign media have been barred from covering the situation in Myanmar. One reason is that certain powerful countries in Asia have supported Myanmar. Another reason is that ASEAN, in which Myanmar is a member, dares not to do anything for fear that Myanmar would be dissatisfied if ASEAN meddled with its internal politics.

Action Against Myanmar Military Junta
It is time now to take serious action against the Myanmar military junta. ASEAN has 10 member countries that are Thailand, Vietnam, Lao, Cambodia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, and Myanmar.

Although nine other countries (except Myanmar) has never handed the Myanmar junta an ultimatum, but from the fact that Thailand on the capacity of ASEAN chairman has issued the official statement based on its goodwill toward Myanmar people and the wish to see peace in Myanmar and to see the progress in national development that is a cooperation between member countries of ASEAN -- that would become ASEAN Union in the next six years, this should be the time for the beginning of a push to make the Myanmar military junta return freedom to Aung San Suu Kyi and let her prove herself in a free and fare general election next year. If such a push could be done, Thailand and ASEAN would win praise from the international community.

Political Counter-Attacks on Thai Government

The Aphisit Wetchachiwa Government has announced that it successfully passed the test of performing the administrative work when it declared its achievements in the first six months in office last week.
As the smell of success still persisted in Government House, rumors and speculation were rife and destabilizing the Government.
"Have you heard that the military will stage a coup against the Aphisit Government?" "Is the prime minister really going to remove the Army commander-in-chief?"
"Does Deputy Premier Suthep (Thueaksuban) really support General Phatcharawat (Wongsuwan, the national police chief), or is he just double-dealing to please General Prawit (Wongsuwan, the Defense Minister who is Phatcharawat's brother)?"
"Are the petition by the Red Shirts and the intervention into the police appointments going to be the proverbial single drop of honey for the Government (a small incident leading to a catastrophic consequence)?"
"The Sufficiency Community Project is having fallout, with other coalition parties pressuring for removal of Kopsak (Saphawasu, deputy prime minister)." And so on.

Magnitude of Possible Consequences
Those are just part of something that is viewed only as small "undercurrents". But the Government should not underestimate the magnitude of possible consequences, particularly an expansion of resistance against the Aphisit Government , namely the Red Shirts, the parliamentary opposition, and even the fellow coalition partners. In addition, a wedge is likely to be driven between the Government and the security side and the police.
When those undercurrents are reinforced by some political crisis, there will be a direct and inevitable impact on the longevity of the Aphisit Government .
A current of thought may be treated just that, but it cannot be completely ruled out. There is a possibility that it will be expanded into a mainstream and actual phenomenon.
It appears that a main figure like Aphisit Wetchachiwa, the Democrat Party leader and Thailand's prime minister, is busy and happy with interfering into the international affair of the permanent officials, particularly the Royal Thai Police. Amidst reports of intervention into the transfer lists of police generals and less senior commanders, there was some loud talk at the Thai Khu Fa Building (the PM's Office) that Prime Minister Aphisit's current main task is to take a close supervision of the police force.

Public Image
The Government of Aphisit Wetchachiwa commands a better public image than those of Samak Sunthorawet and Somchai Wongsawat. It is viewed as clean and honest. But as time passes, its behavior is pointing to its actual self. While the Government is denying interference in the police transfers, it has kept General Phatcharawat away from the line of command and appointed the caretaker police chief to do something behind his back.
Always maintaining that it abhors corrupt people, but when the Sufficiency Community Project scandal emerges, the Government limits the blame within the local level, preventing the damage from being linked to its cohorts and MPs.
There are more and more "smelly and fishy" projects, which makes one to wonder if people are getting fed up with "the Clean Boy" and "Mister Neat".
Over the past week, the Government was busy with trying to defeat the opposite side about the issue of royal petition. And there were claims by people of different political colors about the numbers of supporters to their signature campaigns. To announce aid measures too early, with insufficient reasons to support, may land the Government in a dead end.

Social Welfare System
The expansion of benefits for employees in the social welfare system to cover their children and spouses is creating confusion to those involved. The policy that the Government bills as "a party policy" aimed at taking care of people may end up being a double-edged sword.
The desire to hastily create an achievement has forced someone to prematurely announce a policy without careful consideration. With the Ministry of Labor's decision to host the project, it remains unclear if Labor Minister Phaithun Kaeothong discussed the matter carefully with the people involved. There could once again be confusion similar to that taking place during the distribution of the Government 's cheques to poorer employees.
To stay in power for a long term, the Government needs to be good in its work. Its style of working must not be something known as "NATO" by some groups of people. The slang term stands for "No Action, Talk Only."

Impact of Economic Crisis
One measure after another to aid people and to ease the impacts of the economic crisis, in addition to political ploys to expand the scope of the "mega-populism" aimed at winning the hearts of people from the middle class to the grassroots level, all point to the Government 's desire to continue running the country for a long time.
The mass media are pleased to be used by the Government as a channel to present its achievements. That is in addition to the state media that already is serving as the Government 's mouthpiece.
However, it is surprising for the Government to feel that its communication with the public is not good enough and there is an idea to find a new spokesman to do the job. Is it because the information sent by the Government through the media is just political rhetoric?
It is worrying that if the Government focuses on finding words to attack its rivals without working for added value for itself, it will eventually end up having no concrete work for the public. Thai people are getting sick of the "NATO-type politics.

Tackling Signature Campaign for Royal Pardon in Thailand

Again, the Democrat-led government is on the defensive. Ministers from the main ruling party have indeed just started educating people about what red-shirt folks, Phuea Thai Party and former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra have been trying to do.

Their latest move surrounds a campaign to gather people's signatures for a petition that will seek a royal pardon for the fugitive Thaksin. The Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions has convicted Thaksin of corruption in the Ratchadaphisek-land deal case.

Criticism of Signature Campaign
The Democrat-led government is clearly on the defensive because so many groups and organizations have long come out to criticize the signature campaign. They have also expressed concerns that such petition campaign is clearly against the normal procedures for seeking royal clemency and it has interfered with His Majesty's royal power.

Many critics have loudly lamented that the signature campaign will only inflict greater divide in Thai society. Moreover, they believe that the red-shirt leaders and their mastermind want to use this signature campaign to incite Thaksin's supporters once more. Perhaps, the red-shirt folks will use the lack of progress in the petition process as a ground to begin a fresh round of political rallies.

Various organizations, academics, legal experts and political parties especially the Phum Chai Thai have shared these concerns.

Key Government Figures
So far, key government figures had kept silent. Prime Minister Aphisit Wetchachiwa, Suthep Thueaksuban, the Deputy Prime Minister overseeing security affairs, and PM's Office Minister Sathit Wongnongtoei, who oversees media, had acted as if nothing happened.

It is true that the government will not be able to bar people from signing the petition. People have the right to make their own decision and to join any signature campaign, if they want. Anyway, the government is expected to explain to people about the procedures involved. The government should have told people that the Criminal Code does not allow anyone other than Thaksin or his close relatives to submit a petition for royal pardon. By law, gathering one million signatures will not help Thaksin particularly if he has yet to start serving his term. He has never been jailed. If he is not in jail, the process to seek royal pardon can never legally start. Thaksin's brother-in-law Somchai Wongsawat and two of Thaksin's younger sisters, Yinglak and Yaowaret Shinawatra, have already announced that they will not sign the petition. They insist that they are not involved in this campaign. Given this, the government should in fact inform people of whether they should join this signature campaign.

About this campaign, the government has indeed been so slow to react. Only after the red-shirt folks are about to conclude their campaign, the government has started some moves.

The belated moves also come after so many respected figures like Privy Councilor General Phichit Kunlawanit, senators and civic-organization leaders have already directly expressed concerns that the signature campaign will divide people in the society even further and that it will interfere with His Majesty's royal power.

Government’s Approach
Finally, the Democrat-led government has just started to do what it should have long done. Now, the government is preparing to use the state-owned TV station, Channel 11, to educate people about the right process to seek a royal pardon. On July 30, the government also instructed all heads of government units to make locals in their areas understand about how a royal petition can be sought under laws.

Anyway, at this juncture, many people can't help questioning why the government was so slow in reacting to such challenge. When will the government start working proactively? Will the government stop working like passive bureaucrats? With much publicity about the signature campaign to save Thaksin, the government should have realized long ago what it should do. At this juncture, the government is thus questioned as to why it is so slow about all political matters.

The signature campaign to seek royal pardon is a big issue. As the country's oldest political party, the Democrat is expected to take active role in defending the monarchy and educating people about what the right procedure to seek royal clemency is. Instead, it's the months-old political party like Phum Chai Thai that has spearheaded a nationwide campaign against the red-shirt folks' signature-gathering move. Indeed, the government figures from the Democrat are expected to be more alert and active in resolving the country's political divide.

Preventing Political Moves
The Democrat-led government should have learnt a lesson from its failure to prevent the Songkran bloodshed. Due to its wrong assessment of the red-shirt rallies that dragged on between March and early April, the situation then spiraled out of control over Songkran holidays. After such a lesson, the government should make a thorough analysis of all political moves so as to prevent them from causing many other adverse impacts.

At present, the government is rather late in reacting to the signature campaign by the red-shirt folks and Thaksin. Complaints from many people thus grow loud. Anyway, it is good that the government has now acted. Acting rather late is still better than doing nothing at all.