Coup Plotted in Thailand

Two major political events have happened recently. First, the red-shirt people continued their rallies after they were buoyed by the success in their campaign to evict Privy Councilor Surayut Chulanon from Khao Yai Thiang. In the second event, two major coalition partners bypassed the coalition-leader Democrat Party to push for charter amendments.
The rallies by the red-shirt people and the attempts, led by Chat Thai Phatthana Party de facto leader Banhan Sinlapa-acha to pressure the Democrat to support charter amendments, would not lead to House dissolution and a new election.

Uncertainty Inside Army
Most of all, a coup can be ruled out. There may be undercurrents and uncertainty inside the Army, but these things must be dealt with by the Army top brass themselves. Those, who dare to roll out tanks to the roads, will not only have to fight against their fellow soldiers but they will also face resistance from the people who love and cherish democracy.
No matter how the red-shirt movement denied it, its rallies were made definitely to make headlines before the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Office will make a ruling in the Bt76-billion assets seizure case against former Prime Minister Thaksin Chinnawat.
The red-shirt movement does not aim for House dissolution and a new election in the near future. Although the Phuea Thai Party feels that it has an advantage when contesting the next election and will have a chance to form and lead the next government, the party now has a major problem. That is, it is not sure whether it will be ready to contest the election or not.

Important Factor
To start with the Phuea Thai could not even be sure whether it would receive financial support from the same major supporter if the Bt76-billion assets were gone. But I think the most important factor is that the Phuea Thai lacks the real party leader. The party is in the similar situation with the red-shirt movement whose leaders are only sergeants. These sergeants could only wait to carry out orders from the boss.
And when these sergeants tried to initiate their own moves, they always made blunders, such as planning to rally at the Sirirat Hospital and demonstrate at the Suvarnabhumi International Airport. Thaksin is also far away to control the game and his family members lack enough clout to substitute his role.

The Repurcussion
Turmoil will definitely break out if the party has to set its election candidates in the next three or four months. Fights will definitely erupt between professional politicians, who have been working for the party for a long time, and former senior military officers, who recently joined the party. The former military officers would definitely not contest the constituency-based elections as they do not want to go out to beg from the people's support. So, the former military officers will fight for quota of party-list candidates and the current party-list MPs will definitely not give away their quota.
No one would easily give in and no one in the party has enough clout to make a decision that would be accepted by the two sides without causing rifts. So, the Phuea Thai could be broken apart just when the party is selecting its election candidates.
This is why I dare to say that the Phuea Thai does not want to contest an election now.
The coalition partners are now having some conflicts with the coalition-leader Democrat. In particular, leaders of coalition parties feel that Prime Minister Aphisit Wetchachiwa is too distant from them although they are in the same coalition government. Despite this situation, the coalition partners are still happy to be parts of the government and do not want to lose their MP status for now.
The coalition partners and the leader are like teeth and the lips when they have conflicts. The coalition partners will also feel the pain if they bite the lips too hard.

Red-Shirted Movement
It should be watched closely whether and how the red-shirted movement, which is the front army of the big boss from Dubai, will launch an attack early February. We should wait and see what the next order from Dubai will be.
February could be the last chance for Thaksin to try to win back his power and assets. After February ends, the political situation as well as the red-shirt movement itself will completely change.

Phuea Thai Expects to Topple Government With Censure Debate

The lack of a real leader caused the Phuea Thai Party to send conflicting signals regarding to the charter amendments, and thus throwing the party into disarray.

Chaloem Yubamrung, the chairman of Phuea Thai MPs, announced that the party would boycott the efforts of the tripartite whips--the coalition, opposition and Senate whips--to amend the Constitution. Chaloem claimed that the Democrat Party was not sincere in pushing for charter amendments but the coalition leader simply used the charter amendments as a pretext to try to cling on to power as long as possible.

He said the Phuea Thai has earlier resolved to oppose the six amendments as proposed by the reconciliation committee on political reform and constitutional amendments and the party is also opposed to the national referendum. He said he would have the Phuea Thai whips inform the tripartite whip meeting, held recently, that the Phuea Thai would pull out from the amendment process.

But what happened puzzled everybody because Phuea Thai chief whip Witthaya Buranasiri and other Phuea Thai representatives continued to participate in the tripartite meeting. They also expressed their belief that the tripartite whips' efforts to amend the charter were really aimed at bringing about reconciliation, not for buying time.

Six Charter Amendments
Witthaya said Chaloem made the announcement because he simply wanted to urge the government to have sincerity toward charter amendments. Witthaya said the opposition did not boycott the charter amendments as most people understood. So, Chaloem was humiliated by his own party members because the Phuea Thai whips still participated in the tripartite efforts to amend the charter.

This was not the first time that Phuea Thai leading members sent out conflicting messages but they did it several times already because they tried to steal the show to exert their leadership in the party when there has been no real leader. What happened caused the Phuea Thai members to feel uneasy because they analyzed that the party had fallen into the charter amendment trap of the government. These dissatisfied members saw that the Phuea Thai whips' decision to join the amendment process was tantamount to extending the government's term.

They know that the Democrat is trying to delay the charter amendments as long as possible by using the national referendum as a tool. Prime Minister Aphisit Wetchachiwa and the coalition whips said the amendments would take about nine months or might be done in about the middle of next year. Then, the prime minister would consider whether the House should be dissolved and new election held or not.

Now, the Phuea Thai's goal is to have the 2007 Constitution annulled at all costs as the party sees that this version of the charter was enacted to eliminate the Thaksin regime following the 2006 coup.

The easiest way to annul the 2007 charter, which will make the party look best and allow it to provide the best explanation to the public, is to call for the reinstatement of the 1997 Constitution. Using this strategy, the Phuea Thai will have a legitimacy to campaign to change the supreme law of the country, which is a sensitive issue that could lead to opposition from the members of the society.

But the problem for the Phuea Thai is that the government is now in control of the charter amendment game. And if the Phuea Thai abruptly pulls out from the amendment process, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the party will immediately be attacked that they are not sincere to support the efforts to bring about reconciliation. They will be criticized that way because the amendment process has progressed this far not because of the government or senators.

Six-Point Charter
Earlier political pressure related to charter amendments led to the formation of the reconciliation committee for political reform and constitutional amendments. The panel has studied the political problems and concluded that the Constitution should be amended in six points as following:

1. To change the way how MPs are elected by amending Article 93 to Article 98.

2. To change the way how to elect senators by amending Article 111 to Article 121.

3. To increase the government's power in determining what kind of foreign contracts that need to seek parliamentary approval before signing. This point need to be changed by amending Article 190.

4. To change penalties against political parties and lift political ban against the party leader and executives by amending Article 237.

5. To amend Article 265 to allow MPs to become political officials.

6. To amend Article 266 (1) to allow MPs and senators to initiate how to solve the people's problems.

Reconciliation Trap
However, the process has gone this far because of an agreement of all sides concerned to tackle the political crisis following the Songkran riots. The political violence prompted the government, the opposition and senators to jointly form the reconciliation committee. The committee spent two months to study the political problems and resolved to amend the charter in six points. The proposals of the reconciliation panel led to the formation of the tripartite whips to push for the six charter amendments.

And the Phuea Thai has joined every step of the process. Moreover, the Phuea Thai whips managed to raise their voice to pressure the government to support several issues related to the six amendments. And it has not been clear yet that the government is not sincere towards charter amendments as alleged.

In particular, Senator Direk Thuengfang, chairman of the reconciliation panel who is regarded as an impartial person, is still among the Senate whips who take part in the tripartite efforts to amend the charter. And all sides in the tripartite whips agreed to have a public referendum held on the charter amendments. As a result, the Phuea Thai has been caught in the reconciliation trap.

So, if it makes an about-face to abandon the amendment process, its image will be affected. As a result, it will have to a make u-turn to announce that it has not abandoned the reconciliation process as declared by Chaloem.

As we have pointed out, the six charter amendments are trivial for the Phuea Thai because its main goal is to kill the entire charter. Since it is forced to join the game in which it is on the disadvantage, the Phuea Thai must learn to make use of the tiny game to gain advantage in the main game - seeking to annul the 2007 charter.

Supporting Reconciliation
The Phuea Thai remains in the tiny game to retain its image as supporting reconciliation. At the same time, it also want to take advantage of the process to push for the point of the amendment it wants most--to annul the penalties of party dissolution and five-year political ban against all party executives if a party executive violates the election law.

For the main game's goal, the Phuea Thai wants to use the space provided by the tripartite whips to push for the annulment of the 2007 charter. It is seeking to annul the 2007 charter by announcing its stand against holding a public referendum on the six amendments. It claimed that since the government would waste up to 2 billion for holding the referendum, the referendum should be held on the main principle as to whether the people want the 1997 or 2007 versions of the charter.

Doing so the party will manage to keep its campaign "to bring back the 1997 charter" alive and the party hopes to use this campaign theme in the next election.

And the party will pressure Aphisit to keep his promise that once the six amendments are done, he will immediately return the ruling mandate to the people. So, the Phuea Thai will use the charter amendment game to besiege the government to leave the office as soon as possible.

Government's Problems
The Phuea Thai realizes that the longer the government stays in office, the more stability it will have and the more difficult the Phuea Thai will be able to topple the coalition or win the next elections. But if the House is dissolved soon, the Phuea Thai will have a chance to win the next polls.

The Phuea Thai expects that the government's problems will turn into a crisis that topples the coalition in 2010. The problems will stem from the disputes over the shares in the budget cake under the Strengthening Thailand stimulus package and corruption in the projects under the package, which have been exposed on the daily basis now.

And Phuea Thai plans to hold a no-confidence debate against the government in the next parliamentary session or no later than May. When the Phuea Thai exposes alleged corruption in the Strengthening Thailand projects, the party hopes that the government will run out of legitimacy to remain in office. By that time, the charter amendments will have already been done.

Attacks Against Government
By the time, the Phuea Thai may have already used the referendum campaign to arouse the people to fully want the reinstatement of 1997 charter. By that time, the Phuea Thai will step up attacks against the government and make use of internal rifts among the coalition partners together with Thaksin's popularity, which is still strong. Moreover, the party has begun pulling itself together after former Prime Minister Chawalit Yongchaiyut joined the party to unite the Phuea Thai members.

All of these factors will give the Phuea Thai not only a chance to win the next election, but also an opportunity to win its long-term game to annul the 2007 charter and dissolve the current independent organizations. It will be able to achieve those goals by drafting the red-shirt version of the charter and grant amnesty to the big boss and his cronies so that they could return to power again.

Thailand Government Faces Strong Opposition Against Charter Amendments

The politicians proposed charter amendments on ground that the enforcement of the 2007 Constitution led to problems and conflicts that could cause severe damages to the country. The parliamentarians said some of the problems were caused by some articles and their enforcement so they set up the reconciliation panel to study how to improve the charter. The reconciliation committee in return proposed that the some articles of the Constitution should be amended urgently to reduce the atmosphere of rifts so that reconciliation and political reform could be done in the long run.

Pros and Cons of Proposed Charter Amendments
However, several sides studied the pros and cons of the proposed charter amendments and saw that the Constitution has been enforced for only two years and several articles have not yet been enforced to achieve the full benefits for the public yet. So, they saw that the Constitution should not be amended now. And they saw that the abolition of the second paragraph of Article 237, which requires a party to be dissolved if its executive buys votes, will worsen the vote-buying. The opponents of charter amendments believe that the abolition of the party-dissolution penalty would prompt political parties and executives to blatantly buy votes.

Inerference of Parliamentarians
And the abolition of Articles 265 and 266 would allow parliamentarians to interfere in permanent officials' administration of the country's affairs. This will allow corruption at the policy level and conflicts of interest to happen. And the plan to elect all senators like in the previous charter would turn the Senate into a chamber of slaves of politicians or change it to be chamber of spouses of MPs.

There were also disputes on the need to amend Article 190 of the Constitution. Critics question the need to amend it because the article does not require all types of contracts to be subjected to Parliament for approval. However, the article states that the types of contracts required to be approved by Parliament must be stated in the organic law. And the government and Parliament can change the organic law without having to amend Article 190 as a result the proposal to amend this article was seen as a pretext to have other articles amended.

So far, there are no impartial persons to consider the reasons of the proponents and opponents of charter amendments. But the charter amendments have become a political tool for bargaining between the government and the opposition as well as bargaining inside the Phuea Thai Party itself.

Now that Phuea Thai MP Chaloem Yubamrung has received an order from former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to withdraw the Phuea Thai's support for the charter amendments, it led to a doubt as to how achieve reconciliation.

Charter amendments were initially seen as a door that would open to political reconciliation. But now this last door to lead the country out of the political crisis has been nail shut.

The stand of the Phuea Thai to be opposed to the six charter amendments appears to support the stand of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD). The PAD announced that it would hold a mass rally if MPs and senators amend the Constitution.

The PAD definitely planned systematic moves against the charter amendments. Earlier, it sent Dr Tun Sitthisomwong, a lecturer of Chulalongkorn University, to file a complaint with the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) to take legal action against MPs and senators who signed their name in support of a charter amendment motion.

The PAD also has a contingency measure. If the NACC is too slow to act against the MPs and senators, the PAD will file a complaint to the full bench of Supreme Court judges to investigate the MPs and senators. In this case, the MPs and senators will be charged in the Supreme Court's Criminal Division of Holders of Political Office.

Fast-Track Measure
Filing a suit in the Supreme Court's Criminal Division of Holders of Political Office would be a fast-track measure against those who trade their interests with charter amendments on ground that they violate Article 122 of the Constitution.

After the situation changed, the PAD-led yellow-shirt people and the Phuea Thai, which supports the red-shirt people, have found a common stand after the two sides have been fiercely fighting against each other. But the two sides may have different motives for their opposition to the charter amendments. It has yet to be seen how the two enemies will find a way to cooperate their fights against the amendments.

After the situation has changed, only the coalition partners are left to make a decision whether to proceed with the charter amendments.

Now, the question is not whether a public referendum should be held or not but the question is whether the coalition partners will really go ahead with the amendments.

The Phuea Thai demanded that the 1997 charter be reinstated to replace the 2007 Constitution. The demand is backed up by the call of the red-shirt people who seek amnesty for all political offences following the 2006 coup. The red-shirt people also call on the government to return the ruling mandate to the people by holding a new election. They have been making campaigns outside Parliament for all of these demands.

Now that the situation has changed, it is worrying that the campaigns outside Parliament will grow more violent to try to push for a change to the political power. The concern came up after the red-shirt people announced that they will hold another mass rally in October and this rally will be a prolonged one.

As a result, the government could only wait and see how the situation will unfold regarding to the charter amendments because it will definitely face strong opposition to the amendments.