Red-Shirted Rally Unlikely To Oust Thai Government

The red-shirted group scheduled a big rally on 14 March in Bangkok, the capital of Thailand, saying there would be hundreds of thousand protesters. I believe that the group will be able to gather that many protesters, but I do not think that it will be able to oust the government.

Meanwhile, the red-shirted group can hardly back down at this stage. If it fails to stage the demonstration, it will lose its credit in the long run. The government will not back down either. It invokes the Internal Security Act. It uses the media to stir up antagonism against the red-shirted group, wages a psychological warfare, and spreading rumors that the red-shirted would resort to violence. Its continuous mudslinging campaign is annoying.

Antibureaucratic Polity
The situation hangs precariously in the balance, no one knows how it will turn out and today no one can deter its development. I cannot say that I am neutral because I am antibureaucratic polity (antiestablishment) and I reject any illegitimate government, but I do diverge from the red-shirted group in certain issues. For days, I have wanted to write my comment on the current situation, but I had a mental block.

Today, I want to say that the red-shirted move this time is very risky. It might be suppressed and devastatingly defeated. Its objective to achieve "full democracy" for Thailand seems unachievable and a long struggle seems to lie ahead.

It would be unfair to tell the red-shirted group not to do anything and suffer the harassment and blatant injustice. It must be admitted that the red-shirted group has its democratic right to its "expression of sentiment" in the same vein as the middle class people from the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD).

Be that as it may, what will this rally bring about? This is a worrying issue. My friend who is a PAD member (in the progressive wing of the civil sector, not the bureaucratic elites' hangers-on) told me by the telephone of his (or her) concern for the protesters. He did not want to see a bloodbath. He heard that the northern people (Police Lieutenant Colonel Thaksin's stronghold) raised fund for the trip to Bangkok, although contributions. He said that they seemed to be truly angry and hot-headed, and they would come in their hordes.

What one can hardly trust is the state machinery, bureaucratic elites, and some red-shirted members, including Thaksin Shinawatra. The bureaucratic elites are atrociously barbaric and used to say that four of five deaths in a mob of one hundred thousand mean nothing. However, the stake is higher for the precious Aphisit Vejjajiva administration. It must also win on the political front. It must find a pretext to justify the use of force, like it did during the Songkran [Thai New Year] incident in 2009, otherwise it might have to dissolve the House, or might even trigger a coup, and its hand would be stained with blood for nothing.

Question of House Dissolution
What does the red-shirted group want from the demonstration? It calls for House dissolution, while some members might hope to trigger a coup, which will speed up their movement to topple the bureaucratic polity, but to trigger a coup, violence must take place.

If the red-shirted group is seen as divided into two factions, it will be clear that the faction that fights for democracy does not need violence since it sees this rally as a part of a long struggle with many battles ahead, while no one knows what the Thaksin associates and cronies think. No one knows their hidden agenda. Therefore, it is of grave concern. If I were Thaksin, I would certainly want to risk an all-out war.

Democratic Perspective
If one looks at the situation from the perspective of a democracy advocate, one must admit that there is no light at the end of the tunnel, yet for the political conflict in Thailand. No complete victory for one camp or the other is possible. To be defeated in this round of fight would only constitute a tactical defeat.

Suppose the red-shirted is defeated, it might stagger and falter for a while before it will return for another round of fight in the same move as it is about to do now after its defeat during Songkran in 2009. Suppose the red-shirted group is able to bring about House dissolution and fresh general elections and the Phuea Thai Party wins a majority and forms the government, it will fail to govern because it will be hurdled by the PAD, the military, the judiciary and the independent agencies.

The cronies and politicians in Thaksin's camp might think that winning in this way is better than being defeated, but a democracy advocate views that one must not trade people's lives for political victory.

Thai Government To Survive Red-Shirted Coming Onslaught

The period 16 February to 26 February, the date set for the court to give its verdict on the case regarding the seizure of the 78-billion-baht frozen assets of Police Lieutenant Colonel Thaksin Shinawatra and his family, is the 10 days of danger. In related developments, four major incidents which were seen as the signs of real "danger" for the Aphisit Wetchachiwa government happened during the past weekend. The prime minister's motorcade was disrupted by ill-intention motorists twice on the Yommarat expressway ramp. An M79 grenade was fired into the Rajamangala University's Phra Nakhon campus. Three pounds of C-4 explosive was discovered near the Supreme Court's Division for Political Post Holders where the assets seizure case will be decided.

Attacking Government Security System
Security agencies have assessed the situation that the threat to the government's security is classified as the "red code," which is the highest level and there are four groups who are suspected of being involved in the M79 grenade attack and the planting of the C-4 explosive as follows:
1. A government-supported group who was assigned to create a violent situation to "justify" the imposition of the Internal Security Act or martial law to control the anti-government protesters in Bangkok and surrounding areas.
2. A certain military group who wants to stage a "coup d'etat" to seize the power from the government. This is because a violent situation will lead to the seizure of power by military force and setting up of an interim government.
3. The red-shirted group which has been broken apart into small uncontrollable factions. Among them there are those who believe in the use of "violence" and are skillful in using weapons. These people want to show off their prowess and potential to the government.
4. A group who wants to create a chaos to preempt the court's decision of the assets seizure case.

Unrest Situation
However, the security agencies have assumed that the incidents which can lead to an unrest situation will solely be triggered by the antigovernment elements. This includes the rallies of the red-clad protesters in 38 provinces, activities of the opposition MPs under the support of Thaksin, and the coming no-confidence House debate by the Phuea Thai Party. Amid the coup rumors, activities and big rallies of the red-shirted group are designed to give support to the Phuea Thai Party and members of the Thai Rak Thai House No 111 (banned politicians of the now defunct Thai Rak Thai Party). Particularly, the red-clad protesters will hold big rallies during the no-confidence debate against the government. They also plan to lead the masses to surround the "Parliament."
At the same time, the red-shirted group upcountry will launch their people's revolutionary (Red-in-the-Whole-Land) strategy by staging rallies to surround the city halls and important government offices in the provinces. Meanwhile, the rallies in Bangkok will be held at Sanam Luang grounds, along Ratchadamnoen Avenue, the Equestrian Plaza, and around Government House.

Tough Time Ahead
However, authorities have anticipated that the number of participants of the rallies should not exceed 60,000. The number of the protesters will be the highest only on the first day of the rallies and decline after that just like when it happened during the "Songkran bloodshed" in the capital in mid-April 2009. Cautions must be taken against any attempts among the red-shirted groups to "create a situation" leading to more violence.
The security agencies are still of the opinion that financial support is the main factor that determines the success of the red-shirted groups' attempts to trigger violence, number of rally participants, and how long the rallies will last.
After all, they still firmly believe that the government, security agencies, and armed forces are capable of coping with the situation as long as the government of Aphisit and the military stand together side by side and the silent-power groups of students and majority of the people in Bangkok do not joint the red-shirt movement. It will probably be difficult to topple the Aphisit government solely by red-shirt people from the provinces!