The red-shirted group scheduled a big rally on 14 March in Bangkok, the capital of Thailand, saying there would be hundreds of thousand protesters. I believe that the group will be able to gather that many protesters, but I do not think that it will be able to oust the government.
Meanwhile, the red-shirted group can hardly back down at this stage. If it fails to stage the demonstration, it will lose its credit in the long run. The government will not back down either. It invokes the Internal Security Act. It uses the media to stir up antagonism against the red-shirted group, wages a psychological warfare, and spreading rumors that the red-shirted would resort to violence. Its continuous mudslinging campaign is annoying.
Antibureaucratic Polity
The situation hangs precariously in the balance, no one knows how it will turn out and today no one can deter its development. I cannot say that I am neutral because I am antibureaucratic polity (antiestablishment) and I reject any illegitimate government, but I do diverge from the red-shirted group in certain issues. For days, I have wanted to write my comment on the current situation, but I had a mental block.
Today, I want to say that the red-shirted move this time is very risky. It might be suppressed and devastatingly defeated. Its objective to achieve "full democracy" for Thailand seems unachievable and a long struggle seems to lie ahead.
It would be unfair to tell the red-shirted group not to do anything and suffer the harassment and blatant injustice. It must be admitted that the red-shirted group has its democratic right to its "expression of sentiment" in the same vein as the middle class people from the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD).
Be that as it may, what will this rally bring about? This is a worrying issue. My friend who is a PAD member (in the progressive wing of the civil sector, not the bureaucratic elites' hangers-on) told me by the telephone of his (or her) concern for the protesters. He did not want to see a bloodbath. He heard that the northern people (Police Lieutenant Colonel Thaksin's stronghold) raised fund for the trip to Bangkok, although contributions. He said that they seemed to be truly angry and hot-headed, and they would come in their hordes.
What one can hardly trust is the state machinery, bureaucratic elites, and some red-shirted members, including Thaksin Shinawatra. The bureaucratic elites are atrociously barbaric and used to say that four of five deaths in a mob of one hundred thousand mean nothing. However, the stake is higher for the precious Aphisit Vejjajiva administration. It must also win on the political front. It must find a pretext to justify the use of force, like it did during the Songkran [Thai New Year] incident in 2009, otherwise it might have to dissolve the House, or might even trigger a coup, and its hand would be stained with blood for nothing.
Question of House Dissolution
What does the red-shirted group want from the demonstration? It calls for House dissolution, while some members might hope to trigger a coup, which will speed up their movement to topple the bureaucratic polity, but to trigger a coup, violence must take place.
If the red-shirted group is seen as divided into two factions, it will be clear that the faction that fights for democracy does not need violence since it sees this rally as a part of a long struggle with many battles ahead, while no one knows what the Thaksin associates and cronies think. No one knows their hidden agenda. Therefore, it is of grave concern. If I were Thaksin, I would certainly want to risk an all-out war.
Democratic Perspective
If one looks at the situation from the perspective of a democracy advocate, one must admit that there is no light at the end of the tunnel, yet for the political conflict in Thailand. No complete victory for one camp or the other is possible. To be defeated in this round of fight would only constitute a tactical defeat.
Suppose the red-shirted is defeated, it might stagger and falter for a while before it will return for another round of fight in the same move as it is about to do now after its defeat during Songkran in 2009. Suppose the red-shirted group is able to bring about House dissolution and fresh general elections and the Phuea Thai Party wins a majority and forms the government, it will fail to govern because it will be hurdled by the PAD, the military, the judiciary and the independent agencies.
The cronies and politicians in Thaksin's camp might think that winning in this way is better than being defeated, but a democracy advocate views that one must not trade people's lives for political victory.
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