The battlefield of the forthcoming election is reverberating with words such as 'historic blunder', 'historic obligation', 'historic betrayal etc. In all 22 districts including that of the North and the East an augmented number of candidates are contesting this time. The 'Swan' that was moving on the water during the presidential election period now has turned into a 'trophy' and the Sinhalese people will decide whether this 'trophy' should win or lose.
In the meantime, keeping the names of various political groups contesting the election in mind would be tedious for even journalists let alone the general public. A political alliance could be formed with relative ease by coining a name using words such as 'democracy', 'national freedom', 'united', 'freedom' etc.
Deviating From Basic Principles
The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) established jointly by Sivajilingam and Sri Kantha is an example for this. The Democratic National Alliance headed by General Sarath Fonseka, the United National Front led by the United National Party and the United People's Freedom Alliance of Mahinda Rajapaksa are few more examples for this juggling of words to create party names.
At the same time, it is seen that a 'peaceful war' is about to trigger in the North and the East as nominations have not been given to S. Gajendran and Padmini Sithambaranathan, who had received highest numbers of votes in the region at the last parliamentary election. These two have joined Ponnambalam's All Ceylon Tamil Congress (ACTC) in retaliation. This group argues that the TNA is deviating from the basic principles of 'Two Nations' and Sovereignty for Tamil ethnicity.
Here, the question arises whether they would have raised this issue of principals if they had been offered TNA nomination to contest the election. There is an apt Tamil adage in relation to this situation which means 'it is the exorcist who gains when the village is disunited.'
It is significantly seen that these 'nomination wars' are being fought mainly targeting Jaffna. Also, the withdrawal of ACTC from the contest in Amparai and Batticaloa districts harshly criticizing the TNA should be taken into account. Meanwhile, the news that a branch of the TNA is to be opened in New Delhi has attracted more attention. This has ignited accusations that the TNA is working according to the agenda of India.
Former TNA MP Suresh Premachandran responding to a similar blame during a radio interview in Canada regarding their activities in relation to the stance of the Indian Government said they are not willing to accept whatever solution thrust upon them by India or by Sinhalese rulers. He had reminded the fact at this interview that they had not willingly accepted the provincial council solution forced on them through an India-Sri Lanka Accord.
Effect on Tamil Community
In another instance, remarks made to the same Canadian radio station by R. Sampanthan, the former parliamentary group leader of the TNA created lot of controversy among the expatriate Tamils. Sampanthan had said the TNA would not work according the agenda of India, but it could not work ignoring the Indian stance either.
If Sampanthan believes it is not possible to win a unified motherland and sovereignty for the Tamils without the help of India, he should explain to the Tamil masses how India is going to pressure the Sinhalese rulers to grant these legitimate, political rights for Tamils. At a time where the Tamil people have considerably lost their faith in India, the assurances and beliefs of this nature expressed by Sampanthan would have no positive effect on the Tamil community.
Tamils would have placed minimal trust in India, if recommendations were made to the Government of Sri Lanka to relocate the construction of the thermal power plant project away from east Muttur. If that move had been made by India, over 45,000 Tamil families could have been resettled in their original lands.
Moreover, the scars of the painful memory that India did not come for their rescue at the Mullivellivaikkal killings, at the last stage of the war, is deeply embedded in the hearts of Tamils. They were hurt more when it was speculated India in fact supported this particular attack. Therefore, the skepticism of the Tamils over India's bona fides in relation to Tamil interests cannot be dismissed easily as this fear cannot be termed as baseless.
Participate in GTF
Within the new world order, transformations that are taking place in the Asian theater of politics, the role of India could be reinforced only with patronage of the Western world. The participation of prominent British figures in the recent Global Tamil Forum (GTF) conference held in London also can be taken as an indication of West's approval over recent moves of India.
Generally, ruling and opposition parties join only on issues that have national significance. Apart from this, rivalry crops up on occasions of facing problems including foreign policies. They might stand in unison in order to represent a particular stance, but would hold different notions on any such shared view to make sure that their majority vote banks is not affected.
Therefore, it can be reasonably said that the British parliamentary election coming up in the middle of this year and the power struggle taking place in Asia among superpower 'wannabes' could have been the main ingredients that brought prominent British political figures from both the ruling and opposition parties to participate in the GTF. At the same time, the Tamil Diaspora should understand that the western world would not move an inch away from the issues of regional interests of India.
It was reported that a parliamentarian of South Africa, who had congratulated and hailed the Sinhalese rulers for defeating terrorism in Sri Lanka had also participated in the London conference. Meanwhile, British Foreign Minister David Miliband had sung the old 'international sonnet' on how Tamils should join with all the communities to make a collective decision on arriving at a solution to the Tamil problem.
Stern Resolutions
'Vaddukoddai Declaration' and the eventual armed struggle were waged because the resolutions proposed by the Tamils were torn to pieces by Sinhalese rulers. Talks to resolve the problem had to be facilitated by Norway, because Tamils knew that Sinhalese rulers would never pave way for any just solution. Prior to that, talks were held in Thimpu with the backing of India.
The prescription Miliband has put forward only affirms the 'impotency' of the western world in relation to Asian affairs. The Sinhalese leaders managed to diplomatically diffuse all stern resolutions made directly and indirectly at the UN Security Council as well as at the Human Rights Council.
Therefore, the reality is that the pressures applied on Sri Lanka by the western world would be parallel to the moves of India. In-depth factors pointing to this development can be observed in the recent report issued by the International Crisis Group. In this backdrop, the moves that are being made in relation to the upcoming general election should be carefully assessed.
A formidable strategy is underway in the present political context to beleaguer the TNA. Several pro-government parties and opposition parties of the South and a number of independent groups have hurled themselves into the election battlefield against the TNA with the support of defectors.
Assessment
This has created the impression that nationalist hard-liners and conservatives among the Tamils are locking horns. But it is the communal majority who will eventually be benefited from all these rivalries among Tamil parties. Votes will be divided and the end result would be that each Tamil candidate will gain only a small number of votes.
These splits will lead to yet another dangerous political atmosphere where the Sinhalese people would be successful in creating a Tamil speaking group that is loyal to the government. The statement President Mahinda Rajapaksa recently made that he would discuss with the Tamil leadership regarding a solution to the ethnic issue, apparently points to this potential development.
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