Is India Losing Hold on Sri Lanka?

Indian Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao's recent visit to Sri Lanka stirred hope and optimism among Tamil factions as well as in Tamil media circles to a considerable extent. However, the same cannot be said of the Sinhala people and the Sinhala media.

The question raised by most people is; what is the objective of her visit to Sri Lanka had been, especially at this time? Until someone who is well connected with the decision makers in New Delhi tell us what the true reason was, we have nothing much to do than seek refuge in speculations. Nevertheless, it is now obvious that it has nothing to do with the Tamil question. Then, of course it should be in the interest of India.

Relations With India
Since recent times, we observed, especially after the presidential election, that no one in Colombo seems to be showing any enthusiasm about the Colombo-Delhi relationship. This dreary attitude is a sharp contrast to the excited atmosphere that prevailed here a few months ago, during the latter half of 2009. Because of the affiliations in the war, both countries seemed to be very chummy during that period.

Now, it appears that the 'flirting' has suddenly ended. Some eyebrows in Delhi were raised and foreheads were creased when President Mahinda Rajapaksa went to Russia in his first visit after ending the war in Sri Lanka. Considering the volume of support New Delhi extended to Rajapaksa during the decisive phase of his war against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Ealam (LTTE), as well as the blessings bestowed by them for his controversial presidential contest, it is to India he should have paid his first visit after the conclusion of both contests.

However, even after two months of the conclusion of the presidential election, not only did the Lankan president make a goodwill visit to his closest neighbor, nor has he made any strong gesture to indicate that he has not forgotten. Of course, some statements were issued by the Presidential Secretariat to thrill New Delhi to the effect that, "Sri Lankan soil would never be allowed to be used for any action against India," and so forth. But even these kind of political lullabies have stopped since the past two months.

Considering these transformations, the million dollar question that arises now is: "Will the relationship of Colombo with New Delhi fadeout during the second tenure of Mahinda Rajapaksa's office?' The time will provide an answer to this question. It is important to note that certainly India too should have felt this sudden change of attitude of Sri Lanka.

There is another matter that should be mentioned at this juncture. India was not allowed to play any role in the gigantic development activities that are earmarked for the Hambantota District and in the surrounding areas in the south, which is the forte of Mahinda Rajapaksa.

Massive Development Projects
All the massive development projects have been granted to China. It was learned that Beijing has agreed to help build a most modern airport in south. Therefore, if there is any ebb tide in the Colombo-New Delhi 'love affair', there is a sense of urgency from the Delhi (not from Colombo) that it should be rectified as soon as possible. India's melancholy became evident by the congratulatory attitude radiated by Madam Rao during her short stay in the island. She was full of praises and applauds during her stay here. She even said India and Sri Lanka are like two sisters.

Moreover, utilizing this opportunity to please Tamil Nadu could have been another supplementary objective of New Delhi. Karunanithi had issued a statement a few weeks ago, more or les, to the effect that they will strive to win a just solution for the Lankan Tamils ethnic issue. By this, it becomes apparent that for some reason, Tamil Nadu needs the Lankan Tamils to win a political solution for the ethnic problem.

May be Chennai did turn some screws that are painful to New Delhi in this regard. May be, it could be that center wanted to please its southernmost state. It also could be that is why New Delhi chanted old lines such as "reconciliation among communities," "resolution for the ethnic issue," prior to Rao's Colombo expedition. New Delhi is well aware that statements are all that is needed to humor Tamil Nadu.

India's Objective
Probably, this could have been only an additional objective of India, while the prime objective being related with the one we mentioned earlier. However, it has become explicitly clear that India is not going to assume an offensive or punitive posture against her naughty little sister. New Delhi believes that maintaining control over Colombo, at this juncture, should be attained by radiating goodwill.

At any cost, the relationship should be maintained. That is why; Colombo was applauded and back-patted while several aid programs were announced, especially to resettle displaced people in the North and the East. Also infrastructure development was pledged for Mullattivu and Kilinochchi Districts along with financial assistance to construct railway tracks in the North. Feasibility of establishing a branch of the Indian High Commission in Jaffna too was explored.

Tamil Issue
What about the Tamil question? There is nothing significant in that direction though some persons still think wishfully that India is relentlessly pressing Sri Lanka to find a solution for the ethnic issue pronto. This is not true.

In fact, India is no longer in a position to coerce Sri Lanka. If New Delhi wishes to be 'hanging around' in the island, at least under the pretext of monitoring the aforesaid aid projects, it is important that it secures the goodwill of Colombo. If Colombo declines assistance, there is nothing the big sister could do. The only other option India has is resorting back to its old strategy of conspiring against Colombo as it did during 1980s. India presently does not relish theatrical conspiracies. Therefore, all what is left is sweet-talk Sri Lanka.

Conclusion
In a nutshell, India is not in a position to call shots for the Lankan ethnic issue. That is why the good Madam Rao kept mum with regard to this issue thus pulling the rug off Tamil factions here. May be the subject could have been skimmed and it could be that the president did not make any enticing moves. And the bitter fact is that India has nothing to do in this regard.

However, it becomes apparent when observing the potentials of the projects of New Delhi, that it has shown keen interest in tools that would give India controlling interest, not just over the North and East regions but if possible, upon the entire people of Sri Lanka. An embassy in Jaffna is nothing but a medium to control the Tamil people in the region.

Therefore, it should be comprehended without any illusions that India is not going to champion a speedy political resolve for the Tamil ethnic problem here. Also, it would not be surprising at all if we Tamils have to try to wriggle ourselves from the political pull of India once again.