Thai Government To Survive Red-Shirted Coming Onslaught

The period 16 February to 26 February, the date set for the court to give its verdict on the case regarding the seizure of the 78-billion-baht frozen assets of Police Lieutenant Colonel Thaksin Shinawatra and his family, is the 10 days of danger. In related developments, four major incidents which were seen as the signs of real "danger" for the Aphisit Wetchachiwa government happened during the past weekend. The prime minister's motorcade was disrupted by ill-intention motorists twice on the Yommarat expressway ramp. An M79 grenade was fired into the Rajamangala University's Phra Nakhon campus. Three pounds of C-4 explosive was discovered near the Supreme Court's Division for Political Post Holders where the assets seizure case will be decided.

Attacking Government Security System
Security agencies have assessed the situation that the threat to the government's security is classified as the "red code," which is the highest level and there are four groups who are suspected of being involved in the M79 grenade attack and the planting of the C-4 explosive as follows:
1. A government-supported group who was assigned to create a violent situation to "justify" the imposition of the Internal Security Act or martial law to control the anti-government protesters in Bangkok and surrounding areas.
2. A certain military group who wants to stage a "coup d'etat" to seize the power from the government. This is because a violent situation will lead to the seizure of power by military force and setting up of an interim government.
3. The red-shirted group which has been broken apart into small uncontrollable factions. Among them there are those who believe in the use of "violence" and are skillful in using weapons. These people want to show off their prowess and potential to the government.
4. A group who wants to create a chaos to preempt the court's decision of the assets seizure case.

Unrest Situation
However, the security agencies have assumed that the incidents which can lead to an unrest situation will solely be triggered by the antigovernment elements. This includes the rallies of the red-clad protesters in 38 provinces, activities of the opposition MPs under the support of Thaksin, and the coming no-confidence House debate by the Phuea Thai Party. Amid the coup rumors, activities and big rallies of the red-shirted group are designed to give support to the Phuea Thai Party and members of the Thai Rak Thai House No 111 (banned politicians of the now defunct Thai Rak Thai Party). Particularly, the red-clad protesters will hold big rallies during the no-confidence debate against the government. They also plan to lead the masses to surround the "Parliament."
At the same time, the red-shirted group upcountry will launch their people's revolutionary (Red-in-the-Whole-Land) strategy by staging rallies to surround the city halls and important government offices in the provinces. Meanwhile, the rallies in Bangkok will be held at Sanam Luang grounds, along Ratchadamnoen Avenue, the Equestrian Plaza, and around Government House.

Tough Time Ahead
However, authorities have anticipated that the number of participants of the rallies should not exceed 60,000. The number of the protesters will be the highest only on the first day of the rallies and decline after that just like when it happened during the "Songkran bloodshed" in the capital in mid-April 2009. Cautions must be taken against any attempts among the red-shirted groups to "create a situation" leading to more violence.
The security agencies are still of the opinion that financial support is the main factor that determines the success of the red-shirted groups' attempts to trigger violence, number of rally participants, and how long the rallies will last.
After all, they still firmly believe that the government, security agencies, and armed forces are capable of coping with the situation as long as the government of Aphisit and the military stand together side by side and the silent-power groups of students and majority of the people in Bangkok do not joint the red-shirt movement. It will probably be difficult to topple the Aphisit government solely by red-shirt people from the provinces!