Global Contradictions Over Lankan Politics

Waves of political violence which threatened the country during the presidential election have now translated into a political tug-of-war. This, which commenced just after the election peaked on 26 January when a special battalion commanded by Major General Sumith Manawadu besieged the Cinnamon Lakeside Hotel in Colombo, is now on the boil.
The shockwaves let loose in Southern Sri Lanka following the arrest of General Sarath Fonseka at his office by the military police on o8 February continue to reverberate throughout the country.
The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna leader Somawansa Amerasinghe, who was with Sarath Fonseka at the time of his arrest said 15 military police personnel stormed Fonseka's office and arrested him while the hotel was surrounded by the Army. The arrest that took place while President Mahinda Rajapaksa was in Russia and opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe was in India not only triggered a state of tension in Southern Sri Lanka but widened the chasm of ill-will that existed between the government and Western countries.

Victory Over LTTE
We would do well to remember that the arrest of Sarath Fonseka will impact dramatically since he was the Army commander that took the war against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) to victory.
The government is actively engaged in effecting extensive changes in the Army hierarchy as well as in the police. These structural changes that began with the conclusion of the presidential election on 26 January continued until Sarath Fonseka was arrested.
Approximately 40 high officials of the Army and 208 officials from the police were transferred. Fourteen other Army officials were sent on compulsory retirement in accordance with Army regulations introduced in 1992.
This was only the second time in the country's history that such a large number of Army officials have been sent home under compulsory retirement. Such compulsory retirement was enforced in 1999 too. Services of several front line commanders were terminated in that year. They were forced into premature retirement on the basis of military considerations but the recent spates of terminations were imposed for political reasons.
Following the "Unceasing Waves" operation launched by the LTTE in 1993 a large number of Army officials were sent on compulsory retirement on the orders of former President Chandrika Kumaratunge by the then Army Chief Srilal Weerasuriya. Lionel Balagalle, who was the chief of defense staff at that time, had terminated the services of seven Army officials after trying them in a military court.
Transformation in the entire Army structure is underway now. Consequent to Sarath Fonseka's arrest, there have been demonstrations in several parts of Southern Sri Lanka on 10 and 11 February. The demonstrations broke out into open clashes in several areas.

Charges Against Fonseka
The charges leveled against Sarath Fonseka by the government are as follows:
* Engaging in political activities while in service.
* Conspiring in a plot against the president.
* Providing refuge to over 1,500 Army deserters.
* Committing fraud in arms purchases.
The government is preparing to prosecute Fonseka in a military court. But opposition parties allege that the objective of the government to try him in a military court is targeted at suppressing the opposition and expelling Sarath Fonseka from the political firmament.
It is alleged that the government is attempting to secure a large majority at the next parliamentary elections by suppressing opposition parties.
Against this backdrop, fears are being expressed that there are possibilities of Sri Lanka being converted into another Myanmar which China dominates now through the suppression of opposition political parties. Sarath Fonseka's future depends entirely on whether the West will permit this to happen or not.
As far as China is concerned, the experience is that she always abstains from expressing views openly on internal affairs relating to neighboring countries. She adopted the same strategy on the affairs of Myanmar as well. But China subsequently strengthened its ties with Myanmar through economic, military, and infrastructure assistance. When close ties between China and Myanmar were established, Myanmar expelled India and other countries which sought to exercise undue influence in her affairs. Subsequently, China came out openly in support of Myanmar.
China and Russia jointly supported Myanmar at the UN Security Council using their Veto power to full effect. Western diplomats now view developments in Sri Lanka through the prism of the Burmese precedent. The recent views expressed by the Chinese president and the Chinese foreign spokesman, on Sri Lanka, are seen as significant policy stances in the Chinese foreign policy choices.
The Asian Human Rights Organization has said that the economic development achieved in China over the last two decades and its domination over Myanmar made this country feel that its close ties with China was essential.

Change in Myanmar Government
Although China and Myanmar developed their ties on the underpinning of broad commercial interests, China subsequently began to influence Myanmar in political and foreign affairs.
China strongly backs the military junta in Myanmar to this day. Opposition parties in Myanmar were suppressed in the same manner in which China suppressed opposition at home. In short, China did not want to disturb the status quo of her financial/economic interests in Myanmar by effecting a change in the Myanmar Government.
The activities of opposition parties are totally suppressed in countries where China has a foothold, western diplomats say. Some of them contend that the changes taking place in Sri Lanka too incite similar fear in their minds.
Sri Lanka is trapped in a hive contradictions fenced in by China, India and Western nations. One of these forces will in the end succeed in getting a stranglehold over Sri Lanka. Other foreign powers will come into the equation, seeking allies within this country. Those allies could very well turn out to be the minority Tamils or the opposition alliance.