When US President Barack Obama announced in early December 2009 of his decision to send additional troops to Afghanistan, he thought he could stop the revival of the Taliban and Al-Qaida network base there. However, before President Obama could even come out with any plan to train up the Afghan security force and prepare the total US troop withdrawal in a year or two, Al-Qaida terrorist network has already established a new base in Yemen as a new global terrorist shelter.
Large-Scale Conflicts
Yemen has never been a peaceful nation. All along, the Yemini Government has failed to provide social security to people. Activities of the Shiite rebels and family-based private Armed Forces have continued to be a challenge to the Yemini Government. Moreover, Yemen is also a Muslim country with long history of association with the religious extremists.
Since the armed rebellion staged confrontation with the Yemini Government in 2004,the Yemeni Government forces and the rebels have engaged in five large-scale conflicts resulting in thousands of deaths and tens of thousands people displaced.
Al-Qaida Terrorist Network
Yemen and the extremist forces have long established a kind of bond. From the early period when the former Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, Yemen has already become a safe haven for the Taliban militants in Afghanistan. Before the 9/11 terrorist attack incident in the United States, there were a large number of Yemenis trained by Al-Qaida terrorist network in Afghanistan. According to the media reports, at least two terrorist suspects who were released from the US Guantanamo Bay prison have later on gone to Yemen. These two terrorist suspects have eventually become the senior commanders of Al-Qaida terrorist network base in Yemen. One of the two has become the mastermind behind the terrorist plot in attempting to blow up the Northwest Airline plane heading toward the US homeland during Christmas seasons but failed.
Yemen is a country dominated with mountain plateau with narrow flat land along the coastal zone only. Such geographical contour is a perfect place for terrorists to hide, but difficult for the government forces to launch attack.
Favorable Factors
Based on favorable factors such as timing, human resource and geographical condition in Yemen, it is difficult for Yemen not to be chosen by Al-Qaida terrorist network to be its new shelter in addition Afghanistan. In addition, after the United States invaded Afghanistan and Iraq, the US Government has suffered heavy losses in both the US economic and military resources. If the US Government intends to get involved in the counter-terrorism war in Yemen, it is easier said than done.
Nevertheless, we heard that after the foiled attempt by a religious extremist to blow up a Northwest Airline plane heading Detroit, the US Government has reached a secret agreement with the Yemeni Government to allow the US military to launch cruise missiles or use the Unmanned Aerial Vehicles to hit at Al-Qaida terrorists hiding in Yemen.
Wave of Counter-Terrorism War
It seems to us that the Arabian Peninsula branch of Al-Qaida terrorist network has now moved beyond from creating regional threat to become one of the most active Al-Qaida terrorist network branch outside Pakistan and Afghanistan. It also seems to us that Al-Qaida terrorist network indeed has the ambition to stage global terrorist attacks again.
Before the United States can counter the current wave of terrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan, another wave of counter-terrorism war will soon begin. Looking the counter-terrorism war from afar, it appears to us that the Obama administration that is already trapped in the quagmire of Afghanistan ,will have an extremely busy time ahead.
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