Wednesday, January 20, 2010

One Year of Obama Administration

On 20 January, Barrack Obama would have sworn in as the US President for a whole year. The gains and loses of President Obama during his first White House year were full of different opinions. Some people think that President Obama has basically done what he was aspired to do when he first came to power with the vision to change the US society, revitalize the US economy, promote the health care reform, reconstruct the US international image, and so on. However, there are also people holding different opinions about him. They felt that the glory of his "stardom" has faded, the US economy is still struggling at the bottom, the financial industry and the automotive industry still crumbling, and the unemployment rate is still close to two digits. Nevertheless, President Obama has given himself a performance rating of B plus, a rating that is between B and A.

Major Achievement of President Obama During First Year in Office
When people look back at President Obama's achievement during the past year, many people's feeling about President Obama was similar to the feeling about him when he was awarded the Nobel Peace prize. They have overwhelming doubt in their mind. They felt Obama was granted the Nobel Peace prize when they still could not see any great peace achievement done by President Obama. This is an unfair and unbalanced comment on Obama. This is because during the past one year, President Obama did help the United States make changes in world affairs, although these changes were a far cry from many people's expectations.
For example, in international political arena, the US relationship with Muslim countries such as Turkey, Iran and other nations, including Russia, Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea, and other countries have shown signs of improvement. During the past one year, the pace of President Obama's overseas trip across Latin America, Africa, Europe, and Asia did permeate "multilateralism," "flexible diplomacy" and "pragmatic" approach of the Obama administration's foreign policy. Within the first year of Obama administration, the US President has fully abandoned former US President George W. Bush's unilateral diplomacy. He has allowed the United States to begin the long march to rebuild the US image in many Muslim countries. On US-China diplomacy, President Obama has walked an extra mile than Bush in trying to reduce Beijing's traditional dissatisfaction factors toward the United States' criticism on its human rights records, armed race, and other issues. In the process, President Obama tried to pave a larger diplomatic space with China to enter into a win-win strategic relationship of mutual trust.
Because of President Obama's effort, the US prestige in the world has also gradually climbed up from the valley and moved upward. In June 2009, a public opinion poll announced that based on a study in 22 countries, the poll result has indicated that since Barrack Obama became the US President, the US image abroad has boosted up to a 6 percent point and that 42 percent of the people overseas said that they had a good impression of the United States. In June the same year, another survey done overseas in 24 countries also indicated that many countries held positive view of the United States. Such positive view about the United States has almost returned to former US President Clinton's era.

Domestic Support Rate for Obama Fades in 2009
On domestic economy, President Obama managed to persuade the US Congress to approve the $787 billion economic stimulus package. This financial budget was mainly used for the expansion of domestic infrastructure. The effect of this economic stimulus was significant. At the same time, President Obama also made use of the relief budget of $350 billion approved during the Bush administration as relief fund for the three major automobile manufacturers in order to stabilize the US automobile industry. After going through four consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, the US Department of Commerce has recently reported that from July to September 2009, the US economy has rebounded to a growth of 3.5 percent.
In addition, President Obama also made every effort to promote universal health care reform for all citizens. After a whole year of intense debate with the US Congress, President Obama's health care reform bill was finally gone through the US House and Senate. It has always been the dream of few generations of past presidents to push forward some kind of health care reform plan for people. President Obama has fulfilled this health care reform dream during his term as the president.
However, there were also some citizens whose confidence and support rate of President Obama have dropped drastically. They could not conceal their disappointment toward President Obama because many of his campaign promises have not been fulfilled. These people lost their confidence in Obama not because of economic or unemployment issue but because they felt Obama did not done a good job in the elimination of divide and difference between different political parties. Survey has shown that the success rate of Obama in trying to mend the political rift has dropped to 28 percent as compared to the 54 percent that he achieved a year ago. However, in the United States, the support rate for a US President is considered by the US people as the barometer for the public to gauge the performance of the US president and for him to gain public recognition. The opinion poll has already shown that the support rate for President Obama has fallen below the half way mark and it was clear that the prestige and image of President Obama has gone done substantially in the eyes of his domestic audience.
Some US citizens also felt Obama was a weak US President. They said that when making major decision, Obama has reflected hesitation. On budget expenditure and taxation, they said President Obama has done them in great hurry without giving details consideration.
There were also people who criticized President Obama's world peace effort. They said Obma has said many things and has paid great effort to do the peace work but the result has been ineffective. For example, although the Obama administration did try hard to mediate lasting peace between Palestine and Israel, but Palestinian-Israeli relations remain stalled. Although President Obama has actively promoted the concept of a nuclear-free world, but the number of "quasi-nuclear state" has not decreased but has increased. Although President Obama advocated the abolishment of the term "counterterrorism war," but the US troop withdrawal plan from Iraq has been delayed in implementation. On Afghanistan war front, the eight-year war in Afghanistan ended up having the United States to continue adding more troops to Afghanistan. On Russia, although President Obama managed to broker and discuss a new nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia by taking the initiative to stop the construction of antimissile bases in Eastern Europe, however, people do not see any significant progress on his effort or observe significant change in US-Russian relations. On the North Korea nuclear weapon issue, the international community does not see a breakthrough and any sign that the Six-Party Nuclear Weapon Negotiation Talks with North Korea will soon reassume. On the US relationship with Iran, President Obama did try to use "badminton diplomacy" for the Iranian authority to release the US woman journalist. However, in dealing with the most crucial Iran's nuclear fuel issue, both parties remain at an intransigent stage.
At this moment, we hear overwhelming waves of criticism and doubt flocking into the White House. They said that Obama did not end the war. They said that Obama did not close the Guantanamo Bay. They said that Obama did not let all citizens to have access to health care. They said that Obama did not reduce the high unemployment rate. They said that Obama did not provide health care access to all. They said Obama did not manage to reduce the high federal budget deficits. There are many criticism about President Obama. Different criticism just comes out one after another. This has led to the mainstream US media to lament that perhaps these are indeed the deep cries of the US people. To the US media, they seem to conclude that "in the past one year, the greatest achievement of President Obama was to kick George W. Bush out from the White House."
In response to all these external criticism, President Obama's response was to call the US people to be "patience." In fact, to be fair, any reform a new government tries to take will surely face resistance from all sides. Moreover, President Obama is but a novice President on the road for reform. When Obama's reform plan coincided with the US financial crisis, many blood warming presidential campaign slogans President Obama promised his supporters that he would do after becoming the US President eventually were not many. However, it is unfair to say that President Obama was only putting up a "political show" during presidential campaign time. On contrary, we feel that all along, President Obama still put in effort trying to fulfill his commitments to the voters.

Greater Challenges Ahead for President Obama in '10
After ruling the country for one year, President Obama's real test has just begun. In 2010, there are three most critical challenges President Obama must face. First, it is the high unemployment rate. This is the most urgent and most difficult economic problem for any US Government to handle. The White House National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers admitted that improving employment opportunities for workers should be the Obama administration's top priority in 2010. Second, the United States has an astronomical figure on the federal budget deficit. In 2009, the most serious economic recession since the Great Depression has led to sharp drop in US revenue. While the US Government's expenditure on providing unemployment insurance and other social security schemes are soaring, the US federal budget deficit has also turned record high. We believe how President Obama can reduce the fiscal deficit should be another major challenge faced by the Obama government in this New Year. Third, the United States continues to face the consequence of the two wars in Afghanistan and in Iraq. The Afghanistan war launched by the former Bush administration has turned into the "Obama's war." In many people's view, the war in Afghanistan has developed more and more like another kind of Vietnam War the United States has to shoulder. However, for the Afghanistan war the United States is facing now, there is no indication that the United States can win the same. Instead, there is indication to show that the United States might likely to be dragged into a muddy situation that can be difficult for the country to pull out.
The aforementioned three critical challenges faced by President Obama will determine the success or failure of President Obama's "New Deal" as well as the entire success of President Obama's full term as the US President. However, all these three critical challenges have a lot of variables. The situational development of any one of them may be far beyond President Obama's scope as US President to control. Fortunately, President Obama has reacted such challenges with a clear mind. For instance, on economic issues, he repeatedly warned that the United States still faces a series of tough challenges. He also warned that economic and complete recovery is still long way off for the United States. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has also said that although a sharp decline in the US economy in the coming days is unlikely, but the United States should not rule out the possibility that a "double-dip" economic recession could also happen. Many economic experts also believe that it might take five to six years for the US economy to return to a healthy level.
On the problem of unemployment issue, in a recent interview, President Obama said: "We cannot be unconcerned or be complacent. The unemployment rate in the United States is still exceedingly high." In addressing the unemployment problem, the Obama government has announced an economic package to promote employment rate for the workers.
On the Afghanistan war issue, President Obama also faces similar challenge. In general, most people believe that 2010 will be the year for the United States to "surge US troop presence" in Afghanistan. President Obama must try to seek significant military progress in Afghanistan within a short period. Then, he can send the entire US troops home after 18 months as planned. In other words, President Obama has already set a target that before the end of his first term as US President he must withdraw most of the US troops from Afghanistan. Otherwise, his effort to seek reelection as a second term president might come to naught.

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