Sunday, April 25, 2010

Thai Political Violence Becoming Unavoidable

Now Thailand has become a failed state so anything could happen. It was frightening to hear reports that businessmen pooled their money to try to deal with the situation because they could no longer depend on the government to protect their life and properties anymore.

In several countries, people had to take up guns to fight one another because their government could not protect them, and thus causing civil wars. In the three southern border provinces, some groups of people had to build their own armed force to protect their employees so that their workers could work in rubber plantations. Such a situation is now happening in the capital or Bangkok.

Deteriorating Situation
Now all sides share the same feeling that if troops are deployed to reclaim traffic space from protesters or to break up the rally again, casualties will be higher than what happened on 10 April 2010 by several folds because all sides are now ready to use violence to the full extent. Each side cited justification from different ground to use force.

At the same time, conflicts do not exist only between the government and the demonstrators. But the conflicts are setting stage for a major change of the structure of power. So, this is the transitional period of the current structure, which is being challenged.

And there is a need to build a new order like what happened after the 6 October 1976 massacre of student activists. So, if the red-shirted leaders still hope to earn a victory with help from an invisible hand or a special power, they should have a second thought. This kind of thought will cause them to be overconfident and prompt them to risk the people's life by leading them to their death again.

After the 14 October 1973 uprising by student activists, the democracy was enhanced and student activists earned a special status. They earned a status to become like a mechanism of the state because of the power they earned after the 14 October 1973 uprising. The increase of the power of the pro-democracy students after the 14 October caused certain groups to be dissatisfied, leading to the student massacre on 6 October 1976.

Demand for Immediate House Dissolution
Had the conflicts existed only between the United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) and the government, the problems would not have had escalated to this level. The UDD insisted on its demand for immediate House dissolution while the government wants to wait for nine months. Had the two sides agreed to negotiate, they should have compromised on the six-month timeframe.

But one side wants the House to be dissolved in 15 days while the other side wants to wait for nine months. This clearly showed that the two sides did not aim to reach a compromise from the negotiation. Instead, they aimed to use the negotiation to create justification for themselves. This caused the conflicts to have reached the point where no more negotiations could be made.

So, some groups started thinking about using a shortcut. And such a shortcut will cause a great loss of life. However, the new order after such bloodshed will lack stability and the country will not be peaceful like what happened after the 6 October 1976 event.

This is because the situation in 2010 has changed much from 1976. A great information revolution has happened and the people have greater access to information - both true and false. So, the belief that "everything could be put under control" is no longer true in today world.

At the same time, rifts exist in several organizations which are state mechanisms, such as the military, police and civil servants. They are divided into groups and their rifts have been amplified, prompting them to be ready to use violence against one another.

Current Power Structure
Since there is no stability in the current power structure, the general people could not depend on the government to protect their life and properties so the country has already become a failed state.

So, it was not unexpected that some private groups took their own actions. Under this kind of situation, a civil war is already knocking on our door. Only a miracle by the great force of pro-peace members in the society can stop this frightening event from happening.

No comments: