Guinea-Bissau is experiencing times of political and military instability once again, a situation that reflects the fragility of the institutions of the "Republic." Contrary to what some might think, the government is not the holder of "real power" any more than the president and anyone who thinks otherwise is laboring under a misapprehension.
A total of 36 years after independence and 19 after the implantation of the democratic regime the fact is that there continue to be obstacles to the affirmation of the State in Guinea-Bissau and consequently the consolidation of democratic structures.
Existing Political and Social Pluralism
In spite of the existing political and social pluralism reflected in the existence of more than 20 political parties and civilian organizations, the hideous and barbaric assassinations of public figures, especially in the more recent past, in addition to constant threats to opposing voices that have succeeded in reducing the room for maneuver of the opposition, civilian society, and citizens at large. There has also been a certain decrease in freedoms of expression such as expressing opposition and staging demonstrations all of which reflects a step back in terms of democratic gains.
Guinea-Bissau had lived in apparent calm since December 2009 because of the government's incapacity and the failure of the UN mediation peacefully to settle the issue of former Navy Chief Rear Admiral Jose Americo Bubo Na Tchuto who had been a refugee in the UN premises in Bissau since then. It stood to reason that it was a situation the consequences of which simply could not be ignored.
Problem of Military Class
Given the contours of that particular problem was anyone naïf enough to suppose that there would be a peaceful outcome to it? The political power in Guinea-Bissau has been postponing rather than settling conflicts and so everything remains open and from "incident to incident" one sees more and more disorder, people being detained or killed, and no punishment at all for the culprits.
It has become clear that the country's power structures are impotent to settle the problem of the military class. After all, who is the chief of General Staff of the Guinea-Bissau Armed Forces? Who will be the new chief of General Staff of the Guinea-Bissau Armed Forces to be appointed by President of the Republic Malam Bacai Sanha?
The military situation in Guinea-Bissau is quite complex and it demands an answer that will be founded not just on the implementation of the Constitution and of the Law on National Defense but also on the sensitivities and perceptions at work within the Armed Forces. A failure to address the military issue could see it spread to society with predictably grave consequences.
What is more, it has become clear that there are factions within the Armed Forces even though it is equally clear that reform in the Defense and Security Sector is imperative and must not stalled any more but it should happen in tandem with reform in the Public Service and Justice sectors.
In-Depth Reform Needed
There is the need for in-depth reform in State institutions. The current situation of anarchy has been sustained by the inertia of the justice sector that has made little or no contribution to a much desired climate of peace and social stability.
It is far from being a simple matter of demanding justice to deal with the "evils" that have beset the country, including the participation of some and the complicity of others that are not known yet. What is at stake is the very defense of the country's interests and if the political powers that be are not able to manage this situation legally and reasonably then a new conflict is only being swept under the carpet but it is bound to rear its head at a later point.
The exercise of power is to have the authority and to ensure that the law is complied with and the State is the implementation of the law, not the use of force.
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