Afghanistan-Russia Cooperation

Afghan President Hamid Karzai had gone to Russia recently leading a high-ranking delegation on a formal invitation of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. During his two-day visit to Russia, Afghan President Karzai met Russian President Medvedev at the Kremlin House. Both presidents took part in a joint news conference after the meeting.

Welcoming his Afghan counterpart Karzai at the news conference, the Russian president expressed the determination that Russian would extend its cooperation with Afghanistan in trade and economic sector, and the trade transaction would be increased from last year's estimated $500 million.

Referring to strengthening of economic cooperation with Afghanistan, Medvedev said that in addition to modernizing the Naghlu power dam, central wind projects, factories of chemical fertilizers, and reconstruction of the Salang tunnel, Russia will also initiate power production projects in other provinces of the country, which will resolve problems of Afghanistan regarding power.

Boosting Defense Relations
The Russian president said at the news conference that in addition to cooperation with Afghanistan in the civil sector, his country will also continue providing support in the military sectors, which will start from extending the training of the National Army and the National Police of the country.

Similarly, he added that Russia would also increase the number of its experts in civil as well as military sectors in Afghanistan.

Referring to provision of academic scholarships to Afghan youths in Russia, Medvedev said: 'In the field of promoting and strengthening education in Afghanistan, we will continue our cooperation with the country, so that its youths receive higher education in Russia. Just now a number of students of Afghanistan are engaged in study in different fields in Russia.'

Medvedev announced the support of his country to the peace and national reconciliation process in Afghanistan, saying Russia would increase its support and cooperation in strengthening security foundations for establishing peace and stability in the country so that Afghanistan being an independent country gets strong national foundations and it can independently protect its land after withdrawal of international forces, and achieve considerable progress in different sectors with each passing year.

Fight Against Terrorism
Pointing to the international fight against terrorism, the Russian president said: 'Russia is cooperating in the field of providing transit facilities to international forces for establishment of peace and stability in Afghanistan and the region, so that these forces are able to further extend and make effective the joint struggle against terrorism.'

Medvedev said that Russian and Afghanistan had ancient relations, and termed Karzai's visit to Russian opening of a new chapter in the relations between the two countries. He said that strengthening and promoting the relations could further protect national interests of the two countries.

At the news conference, Afghan President Karzai thanked the Russian president and the people of the country for the better hospitality, and termed his visit to Russia very fruitful and successful in political and economic sector.

Referring to the ancient relations between Afghanistan and Russia, Karzai said: 'We have been having ties with each other for a long time, and now we are trying to have further close and deep relations.'

He acknowledged the support of Russia with Afghanistan in different sectors during the past 10 years, and hoped that this support would be further enhanced and extended in future.
During the news conference, the Afghan president sought the Russian president's cooperation in timely completion of the process of transferring responsibility of security from international forces to the Afghan forces.

He added: 'We demand of Russia to provide every kind of support in the field of training the National Army and the National Police of Afghanistan so that the Afghan forces are able to independently defend their land after the withdrawal of international forces from Afghanistan.'
Similarly, Karzai sought President Medvedev's support and cooperation in provision of scholarships to Afghan students and, similarly, reconstruction of projects carried out by the Soviet Union of the time in Afghanistan, and completion of a number of other projects, which have been left incomplete long ago.

At the news conference, Karzai invited Russian President Medvedev to visit Afghanistan at a suitable time, which he accepted.

Answering a question that United States is not repeating the mistake of the Soviet Union of the time in Afghanistan, the Russian president said that Russia was closely observing the mission of international forces in Afghanistan. He said: 'We want that their mission is successfully completed; that is why we are continuing our cooperation with them in the transit sector. Russia wants establishment of peace in the country and the region. International forces should not commit strategic mistakes that can become the reason for their failure.'

Russia is supporting Afghanistan so that its forces can protect their land themselves, and the international forces can leave Afghanistan one day with pride after completing their mission.
Replying to a question at the news conference regarding opening of a new chapter of relations between Afghanistan and Russia, Karzai said: 'Russia has very old relations with Afghanistan, the two countries understand each other well, and our relations have improved since 2002, and further promotion and strengthening of the relations is in the interest of both countries and the region.'

Similarly, Afghan President Karzai, and Russian President Medvedev also signed before the media a joint declaration of cooperation in different sectors between the two countries.

Similarly, before the press conference, Afghanistan Foreign Minister Dr Zalmay Rasool and Russian Economic Development Minister Livonia signed a trade and economic cooperation agreement in the presence of the presidents of the two countries, under which a number of projects will be initiated in the power production sector in different provinces of Afghanistan, including reconstruction of the Salang tunnel and central wind projects.

Afghan President Karzai met Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on 20 January. At the meeting held at the residence of the Russian prime minister, both sides stressed further promotion of political, economic, trade and cultural relations between the two countries.

Putin expressed the determination that his country would extend cooperation with Afghanistan in different sectors, saying: Russia is ready to provide support to Afghanistan in those fields where it needed the most.

On the second day of his visit to the Russia, Afghan President Karzai said in his address to students of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs: 'As a great political and economic country, Russia is capable of supporting not only Afghanistan but also other countries of the world in different fields.'

The president said: 'Afghanistan and Russia have had mutual relations for a century. The said relations are very old and everlasting, and Afghanistan is among those countries which the Soviet Union of the time has helped in different fields and has completed many projects in this country.'

He said that the relations between Afghanistan and Russia had grown stronger during the past 10 years and Russia was among those first countries whose heads he had met in 2002.
About the economic and trade relations between Russia and Afghanistan and similarly the military support, Karzai said that the approximation of the annual transaction between the two countries now reached $500 million and Russia was the country that did have economic and trade cooperation with Afghanistan and also supported them in training the National Army and the National Police.

Referring to the presence of international community in Afghanistan, the president said: 'In a situation when Afghanistan has relations with the United States, NATO and many other countries in different fields, it also holds very good bilateral relations with Russia; each of which is worth significance in its own place and no one can take the place of other.'

Referring to the better terms and conditions for investment in Afghanistan, the president said: 'Now Afghanistan is offering better terms and conditions for Russian investors, which will enable them to expand their projects by investing in Afghanistan.'

New Phase of Ties
About the fight against narcotics, Karzai said: 'The fight against this menace requires wide global efforts. Afghanistan is unable to fight against this phenomenon alone because the international mafia is involved in producing and transporting narcotics. We all should launch a strong and wide struggle for eliminating this menace.'

President Karzai met the head and members of the Russian Trade House and a number of traders of the country at the hall of the Trade House of the said country on 21 January.
Referring to trade relations between Afghanistan and Russia at the meeting, the Afghan president said that trade relations between the two countries existed for a long time, even before the formation of the Soviet Union, an example of which is the purchase of 50,000 tons of raisin from Afghanistan during the period of the Soviet Union. Construction of the Salang tunnel had also start during that time.

Pointing to the new phase of relations between Russia and Afghanistan, Karzai said that Afghanistan and Russia had entered into a new phase of their relations since 2002 and the approximation of transaction between the two countries reached $500 million per annum, now.

Free Trade Economy
Karzai added: 'Keeping in view that Afghanistan and Russia are situated in the same region, this feature can prepare ground for investment for traders of the two countries. He informed that Afghanistan welcomed the initiatives and presence of Russian investors in the country.'
He said: 'At present, Afghanistan has made quick progress in the telephonic service sector, and this country depended on free trade economy, its laws have also been formed on this basis.'
Similarly, about the performance of both Afghan and foreign joint companies in Afghanistan, the president said that the aforementioned companies were making good profits. He added that the economy of Afghanistan was improving; our country had $180 million in its coffers in 2002 which has now reached approximately $5 billion.

Similarly, pointing to natural reserves of Afghanistan, the president said: 'The natural reserves of Afghanistan are much richer than estimated in the past. According to initial studies, Afghanistan had natural reserves worth $3 trillion. On the basis of this study, I invite you to take advantage from the opportunities and sources available in Afghanistan, and invest in the country.

During the meeting, the Russian investors showed willingness to make investment in Afghanistan in different fields and demanded to functionalize the ports of Hairatan and Torghandi for the facilitation of trade between Afghanistan and Russia. Similarly, they showed their willingness in reconstruction of power production factories, mono-technique institutes and the Kabul Polytechnic, which were established at the time of the former Soviet Union.

Revolt in Egypt

The efforts made by people of Tunisia have at last succeeded. People in this North African country had fallen victim of exploitation and tyranny of a family dynasty for more than three decades. President Zine El Abidine Bin Ali had to flee the country after having accepted his defeat in face of popular protests.

It was one of the African countries, which had accepted and embraced Islam in the seventh century. The western borders of Tunisia are adjacent to Algeria, and in the northeast to Libya. Its northern and eastern boundaries are the coasts of the Medetterian Sea. The countries remained under Islamic occupation until 1870. After that, the country turned into a French colony when the French hatched conspiracies against it.

During the Second World War, Tunisia turned into a war field and was targeted by the Italian and German armies. Though Muslim institutions had nothing to do with the war, they bore the brunt of the war. The country remained under the occupation of Hitler and Mussolini for a long time. Later, it was taken over by the allied forces and it became a French colony yet again.

In 1957 Tunisia became an independent country and France handed over the presidentship of the country to Habib Bourguiba, who ruled the country for about twenty years. Later, physicians advised him that he was no longer in a position to rule the country. Without any protest he peacefully handed over the government to Zaine El Abidine Bin Ali. He turned the country into his own property. The country has a population of approximately 10 million. There is, although, democracy in the country, and Zaine El Abidine Bin Ali had been recognized at its duly elected president.

Large-Scale Rigging
During the 2009 elections, he was declared elected with an overwhelming majority. He secured 90 percent of the total votes cast yet the people were not happy with these results as they felt a large-scale rigging was done in the polls. Since he enjoyed the support of Western countries, one could muster courage enough to dethrone him from power. Encouraged by the blindfolded support of the West, he ruthlessly exploited this prosperous country to fill his own coffers.

It is worth a mention that the per capita income in Tunisia is higher than that of the Middle East and other Islamic countries in Africa. It is 40th in the international list of prosperous countries. Having become disillusioned with the family dynastic rule, the people there decided to bring about true democracy in their country. They revolted against him during 2010, but the army and the police under Zaine El Abidine crushed the revolt mercilessly. Even newspapers got stifled. Every newspaper was ordered to carry the Zaine El Abidine propaganda and publicity in at least 90 percent of their space and carry international reports in the remaining 10 percent.

Oppressive Government
The tyranny of the government increased by the day. At the same time the protest by the people continued to escalate and gain ground because of the sacrifices made by them. People bore every kind of tyranny perpetrated by the government but did not succumb to the oppressive government. At last, the president, along with his family had to flee the country. Though the situation in Tunisia is yet to get normalized and no stable government could be formed because of lack of leadership, it is a certainty that the fugitive president has no hopes to make a come back. If the dares to return, he would be arrested and put in prison. People of Tunisia have issued a red corner notice against him through the Interpol.

It is said that a person gets inspiration by seeing others do a thing. The same is happening is yet another African Islamic country, Egypt. People in Egypt have taken to the streets against the President, Hosni Mumbarak and his dynastic rule. Egypt is a country, which links two continents. It has the largest population in Africa and the Middle East. There are about 80 million people. Amongst them 90 percent are Muslims and ten percent Christians. It i s also one of these countries, which had embraced Islam during the seventh century. It remained an Islamic country until the 18th century, but during 1798, Napoleon took it over for a short span of time. During the 19th century the kingdom of Usmania, made the French army to leave the country. Thereafter the Islamic country had to bear the brunt of the First World War and then the British took it over.

US Intervention
It achieved independence in 1922 and during 1957 it was declared as Islamic Republic of Egypt. It was a rare privilege of the country that it got a stalwart Islamic leader in Abdul Gamal Naser, who made a futile attempt to take on the Zionists. After it was defeated by Israel, Egypt no longer remained an Islamic Republic but turned into a puppet of the United States. After the assassination of President Anwarsadat, Hosni Mubarak took over the reins of the government, a democratic despot.

Since then, he continues to come out successful at every husting and he claims to be the ruler of a democratic country but he is looking after the interests of Israel in the Middle East to the best of his ability. The Muslim populace in the country is not only troubled by the irregularities but are also frustrated with the role played by Egypt in the blockade of Ghaza by Israel. Moreover, after the attack on a church in Alexandria early this year, Christians retaliated against Muslims. This also annoyed people.The Muslim population decided to dethrone the pro-West government of Hosni Mubarak. They organized anti-government demonstrations in Cairo, Alexandria and other Egyptian cities.

These demonstrations are so hugely intense that the CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) has advised the family of Hosni Mubarak to leave the country. After that, the son and the daughter-in-law of Hosni Mubarak fled the country. The demonstrations are becoming more intense and the observers believe that he would have to abdicate. If it happens, there would be paradigm shift in the situation in the Middle East and there would be a fresh headache for Israel.

Obama's State of Union Address

US President Barack Obama's State of the Union Address delivered on 25 January can be viewed as his prelude to seek second term presidency in 2012. Obama has just completed the first half of his presidency. The second State of the Union Address is like a mirror that can reflect what Obama wants to do in the next two years. In this Address, Obama urged both the Democratic Party and Republican Party to work together in improving the US economy. While he wanted all politicians from the two parties to put the nation above politics, he also warned his political rivals not to pull one another's legs when the people of the United States are suffering from economic hardship. He said that if this was not observed, then both the parties could become losers at any one time.

In this second State of the Union Address, Obama did not waste too many times and words on US foreign policy. On the Middle East Peace process, which is a hot potato, Obama did not say a word. On international affairs, the praiseworthy words of Obama in his Address were none other than telling the people that the US military mission in Iraq would soon come to an end.

Revival of Economy

The pace of the US economic recovery has been slow. The US unemployment rate remains as high as above nine percent. The high US federal deficit that cannot go down has led to continual expansion of federal debt.

The reason why the Democratic Party led by Obama could lose out in last year's congressional elections was the Democratic Party has failed to ease the people's concern about the worsening economic situation in the country. If Obama wants to pave a smooth path to run for the next presidential election, then he has no other choice but to focus on domestic economic issues.

Health Care Reform Bill
During the presidential election campaign held two years ago, Obama has made the commitment to promote the sharing of power between the ruling Democratic and the opposition Republic party. Unfortunately, Obama's health care reform bill has divided the two political parties as fire and ice. Not too long after the Republican Party regained control of the House of Representative after the 2010 congressional election, the Republicans have already proposed the abolishment of Obama's health care reform bill.

The remarks addressed to the Republicans by Obama in his latest State of the Union Address have carried with it a special message. He said that when all sectors in the society made evaluation on him and on other congressional representatives, their evaluation "will be determined not by whether we can sit together tonight, but whether we can work together tomorrow." Although these remarks by Obama have won applause from the whole floor, we believe while the superficial applause coming from the Democratic and Republican congressional representatives were as loud as each party could release, but the deep feelings between the two political camps were different.

The gunshot tragedy in Tucson, Arizona, shocked both the ruling and opposition parties. The poisonous atmosphere in the US political scene has raised red light. To the Republican politicians who have formed a strong force to prevent Obama from being re-elected as a second term President, they know that if they focus only on confronting and opposing the US President and the Democratic Party without considering the feeling of the people, the general public who gave them the votes during last year's congressional election might embrace the Democratic Party again in the next presidential election.

National Policy Implementation
In this regard, when President Obama urged both the parties to join hands and rescue the US economy, not only could he win the hearts of the middle and independent voters, he could also push the Republicans to a corner losing both their advancing and retreating ground. When Obama talked about his thrifty budget plan, he said "We will move forward together, or not at all." With such a statement, President Obama has warned the Republican congressional representatives that if the US Congress failed to achieve any federal budget reduction plan, the overall Congress will upset the people. In the end, no party could reap benefit or take advantage of each other.

From the contents of Obama's latest State of the Union Address; we can observe that in the next two years, President Obama will adopt a pragmatic policy based on concrete work and concrete fight in dealing with national issues. For example, in this round of State of the Union Address, Obama did not mention the legislation of the huge and massive health care plan but instead he has thrown out some proposals deemed pleasing to both the Democratic and Republican Party. This has shown Obama has not only reinforced his 'fundamental political base", he has also tried to absorb some of the Republican congressional representatives to his national policy implementation track to reduce and counter-attack strength of his political rivals.

Lack of Strength
However, before President Obama has released the full contents of his second State of the Union Address, some Republicans have already launched their counter attacks on his speech without any delay. They sent emails to the media criticizing the lack of strength of Obama's decision to freeze federal spending.

If we say this State of the Union Address released by President Obama has subtly drawn open the battlefield curtain of the next US presidential election. This is not an exaggerating conclusion.Overall, Obama's second State of the Union Address has promoted national unity. The Address has included both Obama's defense and attack strategy in dealing with his political rivals.

Referendum in Sudan

The referendum has been the momentous occasion all Southern citizens have been waiting for generations. This just ended plebiscite will define and grant South Sudanese self-determination if the outcome is secession as widely and overwhelmingly expected or believed that 90 percent of Southerners voted for separation. The referendum was part of a key component of peace deal which ended with a landmark peace deal in 2005, after the death of more than 2 million people in the north-south Sudan civil war.

Thus, secession is tantamount to an independent South Sudan as well as a contingence for providing basic services, and enhancing freedom and good governance.

However, forming a nation is not that glorious and glamorous exceptionalism, especially in a region devastated and ravaged by war and poverty, and coveted by mercenary leaders who wish South Sudan not to be a viable state and who also want to influence their tribes as a shield for advancing their political interests.

Southerners believe and know very well that there are going to be challenges, but these constraints will be overcome because they are not new challenges.

First and foremost, most of the problems that face the Southern citizens came through marginalization by the successive governments led by northern leaders. Today such illusive marginalization and centralization have been overcome through secession, so the Southern citizens have unlimited roles to play with their leaders.

However, the most speculative questions every Southerner is asking, is what is next after referendum? For instance, the last fifty years underdevelopment has been blamed on the centralization and marginalization by the Northern elites. But if our Southern elites fail to envision and deliver good governance, who can we point to? These questions remain rhetoric in the feasibility and viability of the forthcoming independent state of Southern Sudan.

The current south Sudan government would continue till the birth of the new state, anticipated to be on 9 July, denying a transitional government in south Sudan would be established after the announcement of the referendum results.

Ongoing Challenges
The Government of Southern Sudan has been faced with so many challenges since 2005. Specifically, the provision of basic services to the public such as education, clean drinking water, physical infrastructures, health services, environmental protection, and employment opportunities to skilled citizens, all these developmental needs have to be the priorities in the next government post-referendum.

Why is development and equitable distribution of resources the most significant priority? All South Sudanese believe 100 percent that the underdevelopment and insufficient provisions of basic services prevalently exist in unprecedented scales because: first, there was no transparent system of governance; second, there has been protracted civil war for 39 years; and third, people lack the political will and freedom to invest in their natural capitals.

These monumental challenges were the root-causes for the protracted civil war in the Sudan since colonialism. Now, how these basic fundamental needs will be addressed remain an enormous challenge to Southerners.

Lack of Clear Vision
The fate of South Sudan's future prosperity remains a major concern for every Southern citizen with impeccable patriotism in all aspects of struggle to its realization. Numerous writers have been reporting mixed opinions regarding the performance of the Southern Government right away from day one of its inception in October 2005 to until today.

Yet little progress surfaced so far on the side of government pertaining development in all categories and some pragmatic idealists pose reasonable rhetorical questions whether the Government has always conducted retrospective self-justification or not. Yes, there is a lot which have been achieved by our government that reflects its strengths as an inexperience government, but still there remain few areas of essential need whereby the government has been expected to have done better than it did within five and half years of Southern Government.

One might have revisited Kenyan history back to when her first cabinet was formed under the President Mzee Jomo Kenyatta in 1964 after the British colonization was brought to an end by Kenyan freedom fighters under Mau Mau Movement. That government so much like our government in South Sudan under the President Salva Kiir Mayaar-dit was faced with trio-major challenges of inexperience in government, poverty and high illiteracy among the top list. However, the Kenyan cabinet confronted their tomorrow which is today's Kenya with faith through humility and positive response by the cabinet ministers when they addressed the above challenges with patriotism and loyalty to civil society they loved most. They turned blind eyes to wealth accumulation and keenly focused on developing their country through transparency and education with the aim of eradicating poverty and illiteracy that prevailed amongst the Kenyan populace at that time.

However, their past spirit of honesty and hard work was then thwarted by the successive government of Daniel Arap Moi and Mwai Kibaki who latter deep rooted seeds of corruption and nepotism against Kenyan citizens and forgot continuation with advancement of Kenya's prosperity laid by much admired leader Mzee Jomo Kenyatta and his first cabinet.

More or less, the Government of South Sudan have done much like Kenyan government of that time as it is similarly faced with unbearable challenges of inexperience in government before, poverty, and high illiteracy, but there are few blind spots that our government chose not to see that remain visible to the full view of every commentator.

Most of Government of South Sudan's cabinet ministers with the army top brasses focus mainly on wealth accumulation and openly chose to turn blind eye on development as the civil society is left ailing from poor health care, lack of social welfare, poor infrastructure, poor and few education facilities and no running drinking water in most major towns if not all just to narrow down the list.

Preliminary Results
The South Sudan referendum's counting process is coming to its end with the primary results indicating that separation of south Sudan is a foregone conclusion. The final result will be announced between 7 and 14 February. Meanwhile, George Makier, spokesman of the South Sudan Referendum Commission (SSRC), said primary results of the referendum showed that around 99 percent of southern Sudanese voters have voted for the region's separation from the north.

However, preliminary results from South Sudan's referendum in Western Equatoria state (WES) indicate 98.99 percent of voters have backed the secession of South Sudan, a key measure in South Sudan's bid to produce Africa's 55th state. The Western Equatoria State Referendum High Committee (WESRHC) on 20 January announced the preliminary results of South Sudan's referendum on independence, showing an overwhelming vote for in favour of secession.

Western Equatoria registered 216,567 voters and about 214,000 are reported to have voted. There are reported to have been 10 votes for unity, 211,833 for secession, 1003 invalid votes and 372 unmarked.

Supporters of the secession votes in WES include both the current governor, Bangasi Joseph Bakosoro and former governor, Jemma Nunu Kumba, who stood against each other in the April 2010 elections.

Agreement With Armed Militia Group
The ruling party in the South, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) and all the southern opposition political parties agreed on a roadmap in October 2010 to guide the region for future governance after the referendum.

A political agreement was inked on in Juba between the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) and the militias of South Sudan Defence Forces on 22 January, saying the latter was represented by Ashwang Arop.

However, Col Phillip Aguer Panyang, spokesperson of the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) denied knowing any armed group called south Sudan defensive with which they have signed an agreement.

In 2006 the SPLA and SSDF signed the Juba declaration incorporating the SSDF into the SPLA, which under the peace deal was the only legal army in the south. As part of the deal Paulino Matip became the deputy commander in chief of the SPLA.

In Khartoum, Sudanese Minister of Justice Mohamed Bushara Dousa said that southern Sudanese at the Sudanese National Assembly (parliament) would drop their memberships following the announcement of separation of south Sudan, adding that participation of the southern Sudanese citizens in other state institutions would continue. He further indicated that the constitution must be amended after the transitional period that scheduled to end on 9 July, with the participation of the Sudanese political forces.

Constitutional Review Committee
The President of the Government of Southern Sudan, Salva Kiir Mayardit, on 21 January issued a presidential decree forming a constitutional review committee, chaired by the minister of Legal Affairs and Constitutional Development, John Luk Jok, to review the current constitution of Southern Sudan as the region moves to statehood.

Although the terms of reference for the committee is not yet revealed, the 24-person committee's activity is believed to be part of implementation of the resolutions and recommendations of the Southern Sudan political parties conference, which brought together almost all of parties in the south.
Assessment
The new dawn that beckons in crisis-torn Sudan following a week-long autonomy vote by the southern Sudanese is a major step forward in the search for a long term solution to the Sudanese question. It marks the climax of a five-year painstaking process since the 2005 Naivasha agreement between the Khartoum central government and the SPLA/SPLM. Former United States President Jimmy Carter observed the referendum, whereas US President Barack Obama is also fully involved because their fortunes (north and south) are linked.

It is expected that the parties involved would be magnanimous in accepting the fate of the two regions as determined by the referendum. In fact, the declaration, four days after voting commenced, that the turnout passed the 60 percent threshold required for a valid result, with more than 2.3 million people voting is welcome; it shows the burning desire and excitement of a people for self-determination.

Nevertheless, the development deserves the continued support of the international community, which may be called upon to assist the new country if the plebiscite pulls through. That should also be a fitting complement to the peace efforts to end about 50 years of conflict and two decades of civil war in the country, a war that claimed more than two million lives, mostly southern Sudanese. Millions shamelessly became refugees in their own country. The consuming conflict clearly reflects a complete failure of governance for decades in Sudan, typical of many other African countries.

Crisis in Tunisia

The overthrow of the Tunisian regime, which prompted authoritarian President Zine El Abidine Bin Ali to flee the country on 14 January 2011, is an unprecedented event among Arab countries. In its short history, the Arab world -- which abounds with autocratic regimes -- has experienced many military coups that toppled the existing ruler and replaced him with another strongman.

However, in recent decades, military coups have nearly disappeared as a result of stronger internal security apparatuses; growth in the size of armies, which has made organizing military coups more difficult; and pervasive mass media. A battalion commander can no longer carry out a coup by taking over a radio station. In the Tunisian case, and for the first time, an autocratic regime was toppled as a result of a popular uprising.

The Problem
The Tunisian regime fell because it lost control over mass demonstrations that began when an unemployed university graduate working as a peddler set himself on fire after police confiscated his cart. Throughout the demonstrations, the abundance of media channels and the subversive use of the internet played an important role, as in the demonstrations in Iran more than a year ago. Regimes in the Middle East no longer have a monopoly on the mass media, which makes it difficult for them to withhold information and maintain their rule. The internet was also an important conduit for the waves of responses from other Arab countries.

What happened in Tunisia, the home of the Arab world's first oppressive and security regime, could be repeated in other Arab countries. Nobody managed to contain the widespread angry street protests which took on a social quality that soon changed into one of politics par excellence forcing President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to flee the country. The crisis in Tunisia is open to all possibilities now that the protesters against hunger and political oppression broke the barrier of fear never to look back behind them. Ben Ali's confession that he understood the people's anger and that his entourage misled him when they did not tell him the truth about the facts on the ground came to no avail.

Indeed, the fall of the regime in Tunisia fomented discontent among the public elsewhere in the Arab world, where those at the helm are generally alienated from the masses. In various Arab countries, protestors have rallied in support of change in Tunisia, spouting defiant rhetoric against the regimes of their own countries. This phenomenon was particularly blatant in Egypt, Jordan, Algeria, and Libya.

Outcome of Democratic Elections
Nonetheless, it is hard to foresee the outcome of democratic elections in Tunisia after such a long period of autocratic rule, which has prevented the populace from expressing its genuine inclinations. True, the exiled Islamic movement leader declared that his movement would not run its own presidential candidate in forthcoming elections, apparently aware of the difficulty in building a political infrastructure for elections in such a short time.

However, the parliamentary elections could reveal Islamic leanings that were concealed during the previous regime, especially in rural areas outside the large cities. This means that free elections, if they are in fact held, could produce a model of a functioning democratic regime or, alternatively, demonstrate the success of the Islamic movement in taking over an Arab state through democratic elections.

Arab World's Reaction
Possible reactions in the Arab world to the Tunisian events should be examined in two time frames. In the short term, the demonstrations and protests in some Arab countries could escalate to the point that the regimes would be hard pressed to control them. This scenario pertains primarily to situations in which the regimes use too much force, causing bloodshed and a chain reaction. At this point, it seems that the regimes in most Arab countries have a great deal of experience in controlling situations where the crowd is whipped into a frenzy, and, therefore, they could manage these events and quell unrest.

Indeed, against the successful example, at least in the short term, of Tunisia is the failure of the mass demonstrations in Iran in 2009, which were firmly suppressed by the Iranian Islamic regime. In any case any regime that wants to suppress a popular uprising at the outset will face a dilemma about how much force to use. Too much force at the start of a demonstration is liable to spark a counter-response that will bring about a more wide scale uprising. However, a response that is seen as sluggish is liable to project a lack of firmness on the part of the regime and encourage those involved in the uprising.

Demand of Situation
There are urgent demands of the situation and steps that politicians, partisans, and former statesmen propose to emerge from the bottleneck. They include:

* An integral modernization program and practical recommendations by an independent and neutral royal commission headed by national figures from several backgrounds who enjoy a high executive proficiency to address the overall tension on all paths through bold recommendations applied within time frames.

* The formation of a national unity government headed by a prime minister who enjoys an executive experience in state administration capable of speaking to the people on the street and not only to the elite, and the outside.

* To come up with effective mechanisms to engage with the independent institutions, which have grown over the past years. It is not enough that the finance minister should say that the budgets of these institutions will be subjugated to the Bureau of Accountancy. Most of them should be rather merged, or included in existing ministries.

* To disengage the existing interest-propelled relationship between the government and former and new parliamentary figures who chose to bounce toward the Fourth Circle instead of respecting the role played by the authority that resides there to restore respect for the Council of Representatives.

* To admit that the street movements are spontaneous, propelled by the interests of the people, and not forced by internal or external parties that do not want what is best for this country.

* To reduce the sales tax and apply the income tax in a cumulative manner, and to incriminate the widespread tax evasion.

* To fight corruption and corrupters from the bottom to the top and not to settle with referring the files of petty bribes or announcing that the Anti-Corruption Commission recalled four companies in connection with the Mawarid Corporation to investigate suspicious activities.

* To enhance the right to obtain information and to encourage the fourth authority to fulfill its oversight duty, instead of applauding the uninterrupted mistakes.

* To set up a national security council headed by the king to adjust the pace of the state's institutions to a strategic tune countering the flood of fateful challenges. The job of the aspired for council will be to offer advice and guidance to the state's head; in other words, it will act as the "state's central brain" that bears the responsibility of long-term planning and drawing strategies for the various sectors. Its plans must be binding to all the transient governments whether in the fields of politics, economy, and even counter-terrorism and peace-making. Reviewing Jordan's political hypotheses and building new conceptualizations responding to variables require a state's basic and integral political and security team to take part in drawing the higher policies and visions.

It has become evident today that this state of popular anger is irrevocable and will not recede unless essential measures are taken to bridge the gap of confidence and regain respect of the state. The essence of this movement is the miserable living conditions and the government's persistent use of the security therapy to quell social violence and alleviate people's daily suffering. Such measures have never been proven successful in any age at any time.

The consecutive governments have only known the policy of extending their hands into people's pockets oblivious of the poverty pockets and the rising violence and tension.Once clear strategies are instated, and new redlines are drawn within a clear vision, the train will still be on track to destination despite the change of persons in the driver's cabin. Otherwise, the confusion will continue to be the overwhelming trait of all policies inflicting a loss on the state and its entire components.

Avian Tuberculosis: New Animal Epidemic

A new animal epidemic is looming large here, following foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and bird flu, as a group of chickens found dead at poultry farms in the eastern part of the country tested positive, on 20 January, for avian tuberculosis, which had not been detected in South Korea for the past 50 years. The finding has dealt a serious blow to quarantine officials and livestock farms, which have been working day and night to contain the spread of FMD and bird flu for more than a month.

Spreading Chronic Bacterial Infection
According to quarantine officials, avian tuberculosis is a slow spreading chronic bacterial infection. There is neither treatment for infected birds nor vaccines to prevent the disease. Control can only be achieved through depopulation and proper sanitation practices, including rodent control and screening wild birds.

There have been no reported cases, in which humans contracted the virus from eating infected meat or coming into contact with it. But those with a weak immune system could become infected.

The Gangwon Provincial Government said that three chickens found dead at a poultry farm in Gangneung had tested positive for avian tuberculosis. Approximately 15 dead chickens at a nearby farm were also positive for the disease. The owners of the infected farms said dozens of chickens died everyday over the past week, adding they notified the provincial government of the incident to find out why they died.

It is confirmed that the dead chickens died from avian tuberculosis. But to be 100 percent sure, we will ask the National Veterinary Research and Quarantine Service to redo the test. If it tests positive again, we will cull all 6,100 chickens and ducks raised in the two infected farms to prevent the spread of the disease.

The latest outbreak is the first of its kind since 1961, adding the provincial and all municipal administrations will make every effort to stop the spread of the infection. Avian tuberculosis is not as fatal as bird flu. Also, it spreads at a much slower pace. But the problem is there are no known treatments for infected birds. No vaccines have been developed to prevent it either.

Preventive Measure
The best preventive measure is to keep farms clean and minimize birds' contact with the outside. Those infected must be destroyed. There have been no reports of humans being infected with avian tuberculosis. It is strongly advised poultry farmers to make their farms off-limits to outsiders and regularly disinfect sheds. If unusual symptoms are detected in poultry, report it immediately to the provincial government.

US-China Summit

The two most important countries in the world have an entangling cord of self interest that cannot be broken. Between these two countries there are also contradictions and chaos that are difficult to rationalize. This is the status quo of China and the United States at this moment. If we merely look at the relationship between these two countries, then the newsworthiness of the contents of the China-US bilateral ties are enough to let the mainstream media from China and the United States to feel as if they had hit the jackpot and found the treasure.

Moreover, for this current visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao to the United States, US President Barack Obama has accorded the grandest welcoming ceremony and high diplomatic protocol that were rarely used in the United States to receive a national leader. Adding to this, President Obama also used the "most private dinner" and the "most elaborated banquet" to entertain Hu Jintao....In this regard, whether we view Hu's visit to the United States from political contents or from merely the elaborated grand scale, the meeting between Hu and Obama was indeed a rare media feast for the press.

Diplomatic Event
Quite a lot of media have joined the crowd and watched the China-US diplomatic event passing by (in Washington, DC). However there were even more media channels devoting their energy to analyze the meeting between Hu and Obama. Just as the analysis done by the US Cable News Network (CNN) said: "If we can use one word to describe the China-US relationship, the relationship between these two countries can be described as 'complex'." As a matter of fact, the "complexity" of China-US relations is but the most essential nature and fundamental relationship between these two countries. The China-US economic and trade relations are related to business gains and advantages. However, amid such bi-lateral trade relationship, there exist bi-lateral disputes over the exchange rate of the Chinese currency Renminbi and the existing trade imbalance between the two countries. Coincidentally, out of the total Chinese foreign currency reserve as a result of the accumulation of China's trade surplus over the years, nearly $900 billion dollars of it has been used to repurchase the US treasury bonds. These bonds have in turn become a staunch financial support for the US Federal Government.

The geopolitical conflict of interest between China and the United States in Northeast Asia, the Cheonan ship incident, and the conflict between South and North Korea over the artillery shelling of Yeongpyeong island have eventually led to the strengthening of the US-Japan-South Korea alliance partnership. These developments in Northeast Asia have even led the world community to have glimpse of a possible development of a Cold War in the Korean Peninsula. But on the other hand, the United States has also considered China as a decisive force in resolving the pending North Korean nuclear weapon crisis.

Media's Interpretation
Because of this, the interpretation of the mainstream media on China-US relationship can also be quite complex, even contradictory. Take The New York Times as an example: On one hand this US media said the Chinese national leader has brought a message of peace and harmony to the United States; and on the other, this US media also questioned the authority, power and credibility of Hu Jintao. Similarly, when China's "People's Daily" emphasized the rapid and positive development of China-US trade ties; yet at the same time, this Chinese media also candidly said that the Chinese market has already become "a tree that can shake off money" of the United States. It further counter questioned the rationale of why the United States should still be unhappy about China.

Because of the complexity of China-US relations, it is unrealistic for the media from China and the United States to praise the elaborated and luxury meeting between Hu and Obama loudly and to hold high expectation that after the Hu-Obama meeting, the contradiction between China and the United States will all be eliminated and the hard ice between the two countries will all be melted. It is not practical to think that the China-US relationship has entered a period of springtime after the Hu-Obama meeting.

It remains a fact that the respective Chinese and US media will, regardless of whether their political philosophy is leaned toward right or left, will always stand on the side of their own country. Under such complex and contradicting circumstances encountered by China and the United States, we are not at all surprised that the Chinese and the US media will also engage in a kind of media war eventually.

It is worth mentioning that over the past year, the disputes and arguments between China and the United States have made the media from both sides of the countries feeling uneasy. As such, both the Chinese and US media are still full of expectation and optimism over the meeting between Hu and Obama. China's Xinhua News Agency, People's Daily, China Central Television (CCTV) and other media in China have elaborately highlighted the New energy Agreement signed between China and the United States. The Chinese media stressed that this round of meeting between Hu and Obama has opened a new chapter in China-US ties.

US Ungrateful Attitude
The Chicago Tribune is deemed as a good representation of the US media with optimistic outlook. It quoted Mayor of Chicao Richard D. Daley as saying that the visit of Chinese President Hu to China was "big deal." It reported that the Chicago Mayor has used the word "big" five times in the sentence. The excitement over Hu's visit to China as reported by the US press was palpable. Washington Post, the Associated Press, Bloomberg, and other US press have also given high hope for the positive outcome of the meeting between Hu and Obama.

No matter how the Chinese and US media interpreted the meeting between Hu and Obama, the message given out through the high profile meeting between Hu and Obama to China and the United States as well as to the world community is a good and favorable one. President Hu Jintao said: "Cooperation between China and the United States will benefit both the countries but confrontation between China and the United States will cause losses to both China and the United States." The Joint statement issued by President Hu Jintao and President Barack Obama after their meeting has stressed that these two nations would establish comprehensive and mutually beneficial partnership relationship. This has reflected the inner desire and wish of the governments of the two countries.

There is one thing we must mention here. China has signed a $13 billion dollar worth of clean energy bill, bought Boeing aircrafts and signed a big agreement worth $45bil dollars with the United States. China has taken pragmatic action to express China's goodwill and sincerity to the United States. This shows that although the China-US relationship is very complex, as long as both countries are willing to change their traditional thinking process and release goodwill to each other, there is no knot that cannot undo.

The question we have in mind now is that after the gala meeting held between Hu and Obama, while the United States enjoys the economic big feast given by China, will the US political and media circles again relapse to their own attitude and repeat their ungratefulness to China as the Chinese saying goes: "He is one who sucks the milk but turns back to scold the mother "? If this is the case, then the fantastic scene of the meeting between President Hu Jintao and President Barack Obama will become the clouds in the sky that resemble nothing. This will lead the world community to feel happy about the good meeting between Hu and Obama for nothing.

China Invites RSA To Join BRIC States As Full Member

Minister Maite Nkoana-Mashabane informed by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, Yang Jiechi that BRIC (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China) invites Republic of South Africa into BRICS (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China, and South Africa) as a full member.

Agreement Reached
The Minister of International Relations and Cooperation of the Republic of South Africa, Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, received a telephone call from the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, Yang Jiechi informing her that China, in its capacity as the rotating chairperson of the BRIC formation, based on agreement reached between the BRIC Member States, invites South Africa as a full member into BRICS.

He further indicated that President Hu Jintao also issued a letter of invitation to President Jacob Zuma to attend the 3rd BRICS Leaders' Summit to be held in China. Minister Yang conveyed that China believed that South Africa's accession would promote the development of BRICS and enhance cooperation among emerging market economies.

Communication and Coordination
On behalf of President Zuma and the South African Government, Minister Nkoana-Mashabane expressed South Africa's sincere appreciation for the invitation to join BRICS, as well as the invitation from President Hu to attend the Summit. The Minister emphasized that South Africa was ready to step up communication and coordination with China and other BRICS Member States for mutually beneficial cooperation.

Minister Nkoana-Mashabane wrote to her BRIC counterparts in 2009 to raise the possibility of South Africa's BRIC membership. President Zuma subsequently met with BRIC leaders in the course of 2010. The rationale for South Africa's approach was in consideration of a matter of crucial importance to BRICS Member States, namely the role of emerging economies in advancing the restructuring of the global political, economic and financial architecture into one that is more equitable, balanced and rests on the important pillar of multilateralism.

Relations With Emerging Powers
In fact, the approach to intensifying relations with emerging powers and other countries of the South is, of course, through active and strong bilateral engagement. In addition, however, BRICS also see the NAM (Non-Aligned Movement) and the G77 as important for South-South interaction, especially within the framework of the United Nations.

At another level, it is seen the formation of the IBSA (India, Brazil, South Africa) and our membership of that body as a mechanism not only for enhancing our trilateral partnership with India and Brazil, but also as an important pillar for strengthening the muscle of the South in global affairs.

Enhanced Cooperation Efforts
It is believed that the IBSA will get a better balance, and become even stronger, with South Africa now as a member of the BRICS. However, it remains convinced that South Africa's diversified foreign policy objectives and interests allow for both groupings (IBSA and BRICS) to co-exist. It is the belief that the mandates of BRICS and IBSA are highly complementary.

South Africa and BRICS Member States already collaborated and will continue to collaborate closely in various international organizations and formations such as the United Nations, the G20 and the IBSA Dialogue Forum. All BRICS countries will serve on the UNSC [United Nations Security Council] in 2011 as permanent (China, Russian Federation) or non-permanent members (Brazil, India and South Africa), which augurs positively for enhanced cooperation efforts in terms of the salient issues of common interest.

Indian Nuclear Installations, Reserves Highly Insecure

Recently, India and France signed a nuclear deal, under which France would provide two nuclear plants to India. The increasing Indian nuclear tendency raises several significant questions regarding security of the nuclear program. India has always been censuring Pakistani nuclear program so as to divert the global attention from the threats posed by its own nuclear program.

All Indian nuclear installations are situated in the eastern part of the country, where several separatist movements, including naxalites (Maoist guerrillas), are on their zenith. Similarly the Indian missile installations are situated either in the areas affected by naxalites or in those areas where Hindu extremists are active. Neither is the Indian Government's writ established nor is the Indian law enforced in 90 percent of these areas. The area has, rather become a no-go zone for the Indian Government.

Grim Situation
Koteshwar Rao, a Maoist leader, has recently claimed that they would get independence before 2050. If the naxalites can stop the Indian security forces from coming in any area, they can also blackmail the entire world by occupying the nuclear installations and material. According to the Indian Government sources, Uranium Processing Plant, Uranium Corporation of India Limited, Tiljer Heavy Water Plant, and Institute of Physics Jharkand are situated in the area where naxalites have complete control and their activities are at a premium.

Most of the Indian missiles installations are in Chandigarh, where the Sikh separatists, under the banner of Babar Khalsa are running an independence movement. Similarly, the reserves of Prithvi ballistic missiles are in the disputed valley of Jammu and Kashmir.

Ajit Dowel, former director of the IB [Intelligence Bureau], says that there are strong possibilities that naxalites direct their attention to illegal trade of uranium in order to enhance their resources. There are several people in the circles of the Indian nuclear scientists who are sympathetic to the naxalites, and provide covert support to the naxalites in using and illegal trade of Uranium. M. Mahalingam, scientist at Kaiga Nuclear Power Plant Karnataka, was one of them. Mahalingam mysteriously disappeared in June 2009, and his body was found in a pond a few days later.

It was presumed that he had committed suicide. In fact, RAW (Research and Analysis Wing), the Indian intelligence agency, had arrested Mahalingam for suspected links with the naxalites. However, he died as a result of the third degree torture during interrogation.
Illegal Trade of Nuclear Material
India has made no special security arrangements for its nuclear installations. Therefore, its installations meet accidents every now and then. The incident at Kaiga Nuclear Power Plant is one of these. In this incident, 90 officials fell ill as a result of drinking radiated water. In the nuclear installations throughout the country, 134 untoward incidents occurred during the 1990s. The Atomic Energy Regulatory Board claimed in 1998 that 28 incidents had occurred in nine power stations. However, none of these incidents was of a serious nature.

Nevertheless, the fact is that plants were shut because of fire eruption in five of these incidents. In one of the incidents, a scientist died when poisonous gas spread in a heavy water plant. Atomic pilfering, smuggling of nuclear fuel and mysterious deaths of scientists have become a regular feature of Indian nuclear plants and installations.

The Mumbai police arrested three people with large quantities of uranium on 7 December 2009. Similarly, the Bihar police arrested a group of smugglers near the Nepal's border on 19 February 2008. The police recovered 4-kg of uranium from their custody. The West Bengal police arrested two people and recovered more than 200 gm of semiprocessed uranium on 27 August 2001. The Mumbai police recovered 8.3-kg of uranium on 1 May 2000.

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the police arrested eight people on charges of involvement in illegal trade of nuclear material on 13 November 2008. Three uranium rods were also recovered from their custody. According to the IAEA sources, the Indian police recovered 57 pounds of uranium on 7 November 2000, and arrested two people for illegal trade of nuclear material.

All these incidents prove that Indian Nuclear Energy Commission does not have complete control over nuclear material. Moreover, its monitoring system is also quite deficient. As far as smuggling of nuclear material and the relevant resources is concerned, India is not behind any country. According to the CNN report of 26 January 2003, NEC (Naranjo Engineering Consultants) engineers, an Indian company, sent 10 consignments to Iraq, including very sensitive tools for the nuclear plant. Indian nuclear installations are threatened by the terrorists as well.

Security Measures
Fire erupted mysteriously in Bhabha Atomic Research Center on 29 December 2009. Later investigations proved that goons from the racket of Chhota Rajan, a Mumbai underworld don, had set it ablaze in collaboration with some less known serving as well as expelled police officials. Such incidents cast further doubts regarding the Indian nuclear program and nuclear installations. These incidents also raise questions as to how the United States and the Western countries can sign deals with India, in spite of such security arrangements of nuclear program.

These incidents are slap on the face of the Western media persons and governments. These incidents prove that Indian nuclear installations and reserves, rather the entire infrastructure, is highly insecure, and possibilities that extremists might gain access to it are far greater as compared to that of Pakistani nuclear infrastructure. India cannot boast the security measures of its nuclear program and its insecurity is a food for thought for the IAEA and also for the entire world.