Showing posts with label Hu Jintao. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hu Jintao. Show all posts

Friday, March 15, 2013

Change of Reigns in China: Xi Jinping Takes Over as Country’s President, Military Commission Chief; Li Keqiang Becomes Nation’s Premier



Xi Jinping emerged as China's most powerful leader in decades after he was named President and head of the powerful Military Commission on March 14. He was also named chief of the ruling Communist Party, smoothly completing a 10-yearly transition of power in the world's second-largest economy. Officially, Xi is being elected for a five-year term, but barring extraordinary events the 59-year-old president will hold the position for a decade.

In addition to being the general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC), which effectively rules the country, Xi has been appointed as the chairman of the powerful Military Commission, when he was elected as the new leader of the party in November 2012.
According to an official announcement here, Xi was elected as president by 3,000-strong National People’s Congress, which also endorsed his appointment as the chairman of the Military Commission.

The Military Commission supervises 2.3 million-strong and the world’s largest standing army called People’s Liberation Army (PLA), incorporating Army, Navy and Air Force.

Xi’s election a formality as the NPC, dominated by the CPC functionaries completed the once-in-a-decade power transfer from the administration headed by Hu, 70, who along with team of leaders including premier Wen Jiabao formally retires.

With today’s election Xi has emerged as the most powerful leader in China as heads the country, CPC and the Military.

The NPC also elected Li Yuanchao, a reformist and Politburo member of the CPC, as vice president. Yi who was reportedly picked by Xi ignoring pressures within the factions to energize the economic reform process to revitalize slowing economy.

Widely regarded as smooth transfer of power, Xi along with seven member standing committee of the CPC which virtually rules the country completed over 100 days in the leadership running various public campaigns against corruption, austerity both in the government and military and revamping the administration by cutting down size of cabinet.

Election of New Prime Minister

China’s annual Parliament confirmed Li Keqiang as the country’s new prime minister to replace Wen Jiabao on March 15, who retires after a decade in the post. Approximately 3,000 delegates to the National People’s Congress, the ruling Communist Party’s nominal state Parliament, endorsed Li’s recommendation by the party.

Li was nominated to the Congress by state president. He won 99.7 per cent of the 2,949 votes counted, with just three votes against him and six abstentions

Profile of New President

Xi is the son of one of China's most esteemed generals and known as a "princeling", the name given to relations of China's first generation of Communist leaders, who grew up immersed in the ruling party's upper echelons. But he has threatened to target not only lowly "flies" but also top-ranking "tigers" in corruption crackdowns, warning that graft could "kill the party".

Born in Beijing in 1953, Xi Jinping is the son of revolutionary veteran Xi Zhongxun, one of the Communist Party's founding fathers.

Xi Zhongxun was purged from the post of vice-premier in 1962 prior to the Cultural Revolution and eventually imprisoned.

The younger Xi was then sent aged 15 to work in the remote village of Liangjiahe for seven years, like most other "intellectual youth" of the time.

A local village official who knew Xi at that time described him as "very sincere and honest", adding that he was just like one of them "so everybody liked him very much".

Xi has acknowledged that this time spent working alongside villagers was a key experience for him.

He went on to study chemical engineering at Tsinghua University in Beijing, which has produced many of China's current top leaders, including Hu Jintao.

Accepted into the party in 1974, Xi served as a local party secretary in Hebei province and then went on to ever more senior roles in Fujian and then Zhejiang provinces.

He was named party chief of Shanghai in 2007 when its former chief, Chen Liangyu, was sacked over corruption charges. Shortly after, he was promoted to the party's Standing Committee and became vice-president in 2008.

Challenges Ahead

In November 2012, in his first speech to the Communist Party’s elite Politburo,.Xi denounced the prevalence of corruption and said officials needed to guard against its spread or it would “doom the party and the state.”

In following month of the same,. Xi made his first trip outside of Beijing with a visit to special economic zone of Shenzhen in south China that has stood as a symbol of the nation’s embrace of a state-led form of capitalism. Xi’s trip was seen as a strong signal of support for greater market-oriented economic policies.

The new Chinese president is well-traveled and intimately familiar with the West. His daughter attends Harvard, and he is said to enjoy Hollywood films about the Second World War.

Hu, a onetime hydroelectric power technician, worked his way up through jobs in China’s hardscrabble interior. The new Chinese president is the son of a Communist Party aristocrat, Xi Zhongxun, who was present at the birth of China’s turn to capitalism and helped develop the special economic zone of Shenzhen.

Assessment

The Presidency coupled with the post of the chairman of the Military Commission which supervises 2.3 million-strong world's largest standing military, People's Liberation Army (PLA), gives him a head start to begin his 10-year stint in power.Hu got the post of head of the military from Jiang Zemin two years after he took over as the president.

While retiring, Hu ensured that the head of the country and the party has single power structure to ensure stability. Seen as having a zero-tolerance attitude towards corrupt officials, Xi has twice been drafted in to trouble-shoot major problems.

In Fujian, he helped to clear up a corruption scandal in the late 1990s which involved the jailed smuggling kingpin Lai Changxing.

Xi takes charge at a time when the public is looking for leadership that can address sputtering economic growth and mounting anger over widespread graft, high-handed officialdom and increasing unfairness. A growth-at-all-costs model that defined the outgoing administration's era has befouled the country's air, waterways and soil, adding another serious threat to social stability.

Friday, March 30, 2012

4th BRICS Summit: Playing Crucial Role at World Level

The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) is a grouping of the world’s emerging economies, representing five continents. The BRICS countries together account for 40 per cent of global GDP ($18.49 trillion). Intra-BRICS trade is worth $212 billion, and is growing at 28 per cent a year. It has set itself a trade target of $500 billion by 2015.
The importance of BRICs in the world economy has increased manifold since the acronym was first coined approximately seven years ago. Few could have imagined then how the US economy would collapse and bring down with it much of the rest of the world. It is worth revisiting the original formulations on the significance of these four major countries that were made by representatives of a major US investment bank
Some member countries in the organization are among the fast emerging economies in the world. At the same time, the world has come to realize that to bring an end to the unipolar world and to maintain the power balance, the importance of Russia cannot be ignored. Countries such as China and Brazil not only want to maintain close relations with the United States, but with Russia as well.
However, the aim of the BRICS is to enhance cooperation among member countries and working together at the international forums. Clearly, it is an opportunity for India to improve and strengthen its relations with China and strive to get their disputes resolved.
The fourth BRICS Summit was held in New Delhi on March 28-29. The summit’s theme was “BRICS partnership for Global Stability, Security and Prosperity.” The participants included Presidents Hu Jintao of China, Dmitry Medvedev of Russia, Jacob Zuma of South Africa and Brazil’s Dilma Rouseff. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh hosted the summit, and also held a series of bilateral sessions with his guests, including China’s Hu Jintao.
The summit held against the backdrop of continued profound and complex changes in the international situation, uncertain prospects in world economic recovery and the steadily rising status and role of emerging markets and developing countries in international affairs. It was yet another important event in the ongoing BRICS cooperation. India has worked effectively in preparing for the summit. China tried to work with other BRICS members to push for positive outcomes. On the summit’s eve, the five nations resolved to resist protectionist tendencies worldwide.
The leaders of five emerging economic powerhouses affirmed not just their growing economic clout but also their impact on the global political order.
Delhi Declaration
At the end of the summit, BRICS leaders issued a Delhi Declaration. The Declaration hinted at backing an alternative candidate for the World Bank president's post which has always been appropriated by an American and exhorted the Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to quickly realign their priorities and approach to the needs of the developing world. This is an agenda the five countries intend pursuing at the coming G20 meeting in Mexico as well.
The leaders also weighed the consequences of setting up a “BRICS Bank” and opted for a more contemplative approach by asking their Finance Ministers to examine its feasibility and report back at the next summit in Russia. They agreed that the bank should in no way emerge as a competitor to the World Bank and the IMF but provide funds for projects that do not find favor with these institutions.
In line with their professed commitment to multilateralism in economic and political problem solving, the leaders agreed to invest more in the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) which played a major role in catering to the interests of developing countries in the run-up to the setting up of the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Seeking to reinforce their growing economic heft with diplomatic clout, the BRICS grouping pitched for a bigger say in global governance institutions, including the United Nations and the IMF, and told the West that dialogue was the only way to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue and the Syria crisis.
The leaders of BRISC’s formulation on Iran came close to condemning the West's pressure tactics to make other countries obey their latest restrictions on trade ties, especially in the energy sphere. Saying that a conflict would have disastrous consequences, it wanted the two antagonists to resolve suspicions over Iran's nuclear program through talks on multilateral fora.
On Afghanistan, BRICS exhorted the international community to stay the course on the development front for 10 years after the West withdraws most of its combat troops by 2014-end and, on Russia's insistence, made a mention of checking narcotic trafficking.
In a fresh assertion, BRICS asked the West to implement the 2010 governance and quota reform before the 2012 IMF/World Bank annual meeting, as well as the comprehensive review of the quota formula to better reflect economic weights. They asked for enhancing the voice and representation of emerging market and developing countries by January 2013, followed by the completion of the next general quota review by January 2014.
In a signature step, the BRICS decided to create their first institution in the form of a BRICS-led South South Development Bank that will mobilise "resources for infrastructure and sustainable development projects in BRICS and other emerging economies and developing countries." The leaders directed their finance ministers "to examine the feasibility and viability of such an initiative, set up a joint working group for further study, and report back by the next summit."
The development banks of the five countries signed two pacts, including a master agreement on extending credit facility in local currency and BRICS multilateral letter of credit confirmation facility agreement, which could help scale up bilateral trade from $230 billion to $500 billion.
India’s Major Points
Addressing the summit, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh also said that the grouping has agreed to examine in "greater detail" a proposal to set up a South-South Development bank, funded and managed by BRICS and other developing countries.
Singh also urged member countries to speak in one voice on key issues such as the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) reforms. He suggested that BRICS countries should speak in one voice on issues such as reforms of the international body.
On UNSC reforms, Singh suggested that BRICS countries should speak in one voice on issues such as reforms of the international body.
He also said in their restricted session, the grouping also discussed the ongoing turmoil in West Asia and agreed to work together for a peaceful resolution of the crisis.
Touching upon the issue of terrorism, Singh said the countries should enhance cooperation against terrorism and other developing threats such as piracy, particularly emanating from Somalia.
UN Millennium Development Goals
BRICS nations are the defender and promoter of the interests of developing countries. In their cooperation, BRICS countries have committed to promoting South-South cooperation and North-South dialogue, endeavored to implement the UN Millennium Development Goals, worked for early realization of the goals set out in the mandate for the Doha development round negotiations, strived to secure a greater say for developing countries in global economic governance and fought all forms of protectionism.
Cooperation among BRICS countries is made necessary by the ongoing economic globalization and democratization in international relations. It is consistent with the trend of the times characterized by peace, development and cooperation, and fully conducive to building a harmonious world of durable peace and common prosperity.
Role of China
An impression is sought to be created that with its massive monetary reserves and political clout, China may exert undue influence in this bank. This is unlikely. Such a bank will not require too much paid-up capital (relative to the average size of respective sovereign reserves) if intelligent financial engineering can help sequester foreign reserves. This would mean that the smallest BRICS economy, South Africa, could easily commit an amount similar to that of China in the capital structure. Such doubts could be further allayed with the institution of a rotating Presidency of, say, a two-year term that could initially be restricted to the BRICS countries alone.
India-India Strategic Ties
The China-India strategic and cooperative partnership has made all-round progress in recent years. A sustained, sound and steady growth of relations between China and India, the two large developing countries sharing borders with each other, will serve not only the well-being of the two peoples but also peace, stability and prosperity in Asia and the world as a whole.
The Delhi Summit will be remembered forever for one major achievement, at least. Its expected decision to set up a BRICS bank on the lines of the World Bank may change the course of economic activity in the member-countries. The setting up of this new financial institution by the bloc that has brought together half of the world’s population may speed up infrastructure development programs in the BRICS countries and serve as a second line of financial defense in times of economic crisis as is being faced by Europe today.

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

New Geopolitical Equation in Asia

After the dramatic announcement of killing of Osama Bin Laden, a big change in the geopolitics of Asia has become evident centering the dilemma in the relations between Pakistan and the United States. Through this incident, signals are being received regarding a visible role of China and a shrink in the influence of the United States in this region as a split has been created in the relationship between Pakistan and the United States. The plummeting in the Washington-Islamabad relations first came to the limelight through the arrest of a US contractor Raymond Davis, who is known as a Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) spy, for his involvement in the killings of two Pakistani citizens. After languishing for three months in prison, Raymond Davis was freed in March with the payment of blood money.
Since then, it was being thought that the US pressure on Pakistan would be mounted. Exactly this happened. Subsequently, the United States claimed that their commandoes have killed Bin Laden in a raid. Pakistan has described the raid as a blow to its sovereignty. However, the United States has brought an allegation against Pakistani intelligence agency for providing shelter to Bin Laden. Though a number of questions have surfaced centering this raid -- whether Bin Laden was really killed in the attack or he was killed much earlier or anybody else was killed in the name of Bin Laden.
War on Terror
Centering this incident whatever it might be -- the actual Bib Laden killed or no -- Pakistan is trying to come out of the influence of the United States, a long time friend of that country. Within 15 days of the killing of Bin Laden, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani visited China. The Chinese leaders categorically announced that Pakistan has significant contribution to the war on terror. This country is also a victim of terrorism.
The Western countries must show their respect to the sovereignty of Pakistan. The Chinese leaders further announced that Beijing will consider any attack on Islamabad an attack against it and China will always stand beside Pakistan. This announcement from Beijing in the face of an intense pressure from the west was not only a matter of ease for Islamabad, but a clear indication that China support Pakistan at the time of difficulty.
Building Gwadar Port
Massive steps were taken to enhance military relations between China and Pakistan during this visit of Gilani. The area of cooperation also includes transfer of military technology side by side with military assistance. China has assured Pakistan of supplying more than 50 JF Thunder Aircraft within a shortest possible time. In addition, the two countries have reached an agreement on purchasing frigates for the navy and training on operating submarines. Seventy-five percent arms of Pakistani Armed Forces comes from China. Very soon 260 Chinese fighter planes will be added to the Pakistan Air Force. It is being though that Pakistan is going to be a member of Shanghai Cooperation from an observer at the behest of China. And this might add a new dimension to China-India relations in the coming days. During Gilani's visit to China this time, the most important military on the agenda was the proposal of setting up a naval base at Gwadar Seaport, built on assistance from Beijing.
China and India have long been involved in a race for expanding influence in the India Ocean. Comparatively India navy is now stronger in the India Ocean. It can be said India has its hegemony on the sea. An intensive relationship of cooperation of India navy with the US Navy has been added to this. China has to import its fuel oil from the Middle East through the narrow strata of Malacca under the India-US naval surveillance. During any adverse situation the India-US naval power may close down this supply route for China. Alternative sea routes are very essential for China. Beijing is going to be achieved this opportunity this time completely. Gwadar seaport has multifaceted military significance. Virtually this port will be the main center for China to maintain its influence in the southern seacoast of Asia. From there China will be able to maintain its surveillance on the Indian and US Naval Forces.
Gwadar Seaport is very close to the seacoast of Oman. The distance of the Persian Gulf from here is not so far. Before 1958, Gwadar was under Oman. Later, the area was handed over to Pakistan. In 1973, US President Richard Nixon visited Pakistan. During the visit, the then Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto requested Richard Nixon to help building a seaport at Gwadar. Bhutto proposed that Pakistan would ensure benefit of the US Navy from Gwadar if the port was built with assistance from his country. But Nixan did not make any response to that proposal.
Failing to get any support from the US for building the seaport at Gwadar, Pakistan did not abandon its plan in this regard. Later, they sought helps from China in this regard. The work on building the seaport began in 2002 with assistance from China. China invested $200million for construction of the seaport. The first phase of the construction of the port ended in 2006. Singapore Port Management Authority was given the responsibility of running the port. Now China will be given the responsibility of running the port from Singapore Port Authority. A decision has been taken to review soon the port management by Singapore Port Authority.
The work on establishing direct road and railway communications with China from Gwadar seaport has begun so that oil tankers could be transported to Chinese territory from the port. China began the expansion of road network on Karakoram Highway from Gilgit in Pakistan to Xinjinag province of China. In 2006, Islamabad and Beijing signed agreement to build a road from Kashgar in China to Abbottabad in Pakistan. The two countries took the decision of constructing an alternative land route in consideration that Karakoram Highway might be risky for bigger containers. Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari visited China in July 2010. During his talks with Chinese President Hu Jintao, a decision was taken to set up 3,000 km railway line from Kashgar to Gwadar.
Security experts believe China will use this port equally both for civil and military purposes. Chinese ships will not anchor at the port only, but its submarines use the same as a base. In a recent report by New Delhi-based Institute of Defense Studies and Analysis said this port is a threat to India. Gwadar Port is very close to Hormuz strata. During any adverse situation, Pakistan might impose restriction on this route. However, Beijing will be able to conduct a complete surveillance on Indo-US naval maneuverings in the Arab Sea and Persian Gulf.
Pressure From Western Countries
Both the United States and India are worried over this strategic and military cooperation between Pakistan and China. Many people think the conflict between the CIA and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is rooted in the relations between China and Pakistan. It seems that the US has toned down to Pakistan as Islamabad successfully played the China card in face of relentless pressure from the Western countries.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made a surprised visit to Pakistan along with Admiral Mike Mullen, then chairman of the Joint US Chief of Staff. Hillary announced that the United States will continue its cooperation and the war on terror with Pakistan. So long the United States has been alleging that Bin Laden had been hiding inside Pakistan with helps from Pakistani intelligence officials. But during her visit to Islamabad, Hillary said she did not believe top Pakistani official knew about the hiding of Bin Laden in that country.
The US security adviser has already announced that Washington's assistance to Pakistan will not be stopped. The US concern has started unfolding at a time when Pakistan is set to go under the total influence of China.
Despite conducting drone attacks inside Pakistan to eliminate the Taliban militants, the United States has been holding talks with the Taliban at the mediation of Turkey. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) officials have already held meeting with mid ranking Taliban leaders. Recently, former NATO official and former foreign minister of Turkey Hiqmat Setin said that Turkey was going to hold high level talks with the Taliban soon.
It is being observed that the United States contact with the Taliban still exists. However, Pakistan has been made the target of the Taliban. Questions have now been raised from inside Pakistan about the motive behind the recent attack on Pakistani naval base in Karachi and destruction of two naval surveillance aircraft. Whether any special message is being given by this type of attack. It has become clear from the nature of the attack that the target of the raid was to hit the military strength of Pakistan. A section of the mass media in Pakistan has alleged that those who have been conducting this type of attack in Pakistan in the name of the Taliban have special links with the US and Indian intelligence agency.
Pakistan's Military Cooperation with China
However, India has already expressed concern over Pakistan's military cooperation with China. Following the claim of killing Bin Laden at Abbottabad by the US force, a hint was given from New Delhi that India might conduct similar attack on Pakistan. The reaction shown by Pakistan in response to that desire of New Delhi is another cause of concern for India. Pakistan made it clear that if India dared to conduct such raids Islamabad will limited scale nuclear weapon or tactical nuclear arms. It was not so long known that Pakistan has such sophisticate nuclear arsenals.
At the same time, India plunged into another diplomatic difficulty. India handed over a list of 50 terrorists residing in Pakistan to Islamabad authorities and demanded their extradition for trials. The following day reports were published in the Indian newspapers that two of the listed terrorists detained in Indian prisons. Indian wanted to mount pressure on Pakistan in line with the United States, but they himself got entangled in trouble. And as a result, the image of India was tarnished.
After the killing of Bin Laden, the competition launch between the United States and China for expanding influence centering Pakistan gives a signal of a new strategic equation of the Asian superpowers. Iran has also joined the race. Iran has already expressed its solidarity with the integrity of Pakistan. It is being thought that Pakistani military officials have been maintaining contacts with Iran.
Importance of Islamabad
Except China, Pakistan has taken initiative of enhancing cooperation with Russia. President Asif Ali Zardari had already visited Russia. He was given a rousing reception in Moscow. The new relations of China and Russia with Iran and Pakistan could turnout to be a big concern for the United States in future. This will make the position of US-led NATO force in Afghanistan weak, and also deal a blow to the US initiatives of establishing control over the energy resources in Central Asia. In addition, Russia, China is also enhancing its influence in the Central Asia. A cooperative relation between China and Pakistan will help Beijing to make another step forward in expanding its influence in this region. Because of road communication with Central Asia and port facilities, the importance of Pakistan has increased. Despite multifaceted pressure from United States and acts of sabotage inside the country, Pakistan is playing the cards of its good relations with China and Russia because of its geostrategic position. And this is the main weapon of Pakistan. Because of this it is very easy to criticize Pakistan, but difficult to avoid.

Monday, November 7, 2011

China To Lead Technology Cooperation in Asia Pacific Region

The findings of science and technology in the 21st century is disseminated faster in a globalized world. However, competition arising from different countries and regions still exists. One good example is the setting up of research centers in Europe in 1960s in order to compete with the United States. Such centers in Europe consolidate resources and manpower from different countries to focus on research work together. One successful case is the European Organization for Nuclear Research in Geneva (CERN).
Highest-Energy Particle Accelerator
The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is the world's largest and highest-energy particle accelerator. The LHC was built with the intention of testing Higgs boson and the large family of new particles. It was built in collaboration with many scientists and engineers from various countries in the world. Their long term research had contributed to mankind.
Why are European countries willing to invest in millions of euros to conduct research on items which do not have commercial value? Apart from hoping to overtake the United States in their research, it also reflects that hereditary European culture of promoting science and technology. Science is one major component in human civilization and the Europe would not want to be left behind the United States.
Changing Economic Scenario
The United States and Europe are still leading Asia in scientific research. With the change of economic scenario in 21st century, China has become the second economic giant in the world while India is also rising. With Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore growing stronger by the day, one can't undermine the economic strength of Asia Pacific region. It is not impossible for it to overtake Europe and United States. The Asia Pacific should look into how to catch up in its research work in science in order to contribute to human civilizations.
First and foremost, whether Asia Pacific countries are able to contribute, to a large extend it will depend on the determination of political leaders. The setting up of CERN is the consensus reached among the political leaders in Germany, France, the United Kingdom and others. Such set up is impossible without the support of politicians. Chinese leaders are also supportive of scientific research and they are also aware of its significance. When Mao Zedong met up with Yang Zhenning and Li Zhengdao, he showed keen interest in science. Mao was discussing the structure of elementary particle with Yang. In a thick Hunan accent, he told Yang that in China, ancient philosophers also tried to explain the structure of substance. Mao also met with Nobel prize winner Abdus Salam and Japanese physics scientist Sakata Shoichi. In his antirightist movement, Zhou Enlai protected scientist first. He also had a name list of scientists to be protected. Many are experts of atomic, missiles and satellites. In 1979, when Li proposed setting up a high energy accelerator, Deng Xiaoping immediately agreed with the proposal. Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao also realize the importance of science. One can say that several generations of Chinese leaders support science.
More than 30 years after the reform and opening up policy, China has entered a phase where its economy is vibrant. Apart from upgrading its standard in science, technology and education level, it should also be contributing to science in the world. By becoming the leader of science and technology in Asia Pacific region, it should be assisting third world developing countries to speed up their leaps in science and education.
At this moment it is still premature for China or India to set a center like CERN. But China or India should take the cue from Prof Abdus Salam's experience and method to set up International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) 40 years ago. The main aim of the center is to assist scientists in third world countries for them to have a chance to interact with scientists from first world countries. They can also conduct research in the centre for several months to a year. Salam's center receive support from the Italian Government, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and UNESCO. It is pragmatic to set up similar research center in China.
Assisting Mankind to Progress
Scientists in developing countries lack funds and research facilities. To groom them one would have to start from areas in mathematics, theoretical physics, theoretical chemistry, theoretical biology and computer science to be effective.
For the past 40 over years, Salam's center groomed many world class scientists. It has also mobilized the science development in Asia, Africa and Latin America. China, India and other countries should also tell the world that they too, are concerned with assisting mankind to progress further to consolidate Asia Pacific for joint development and not only interested in domestic economy or benefits of technology.

Monday, September 5, 2011

China's 'New Security Policy,' ASEAN's Responses

Since the mid-1990s, China has changed significantly in global and regional security diplomacy. The fall of the Soviet Union (present day Russia) put an end to the bipolar structure that had been going on in the international scene and this was seen by China as an opportunity to turn into a developed country and become a country with a distinguished status at the regional and international levels.
The country has realized the importance of maintaining regional and international security based on the international norms which get broader and are no longer directed towards ‘Hard Politics’ but towards ‘Low Politics’ which focuses more on issues such as ‘Human Security’ and ‘Energy Security.’ To achieve its goals, China has chosen a more realistic, pro-active and constructive approach, and this country is ready to take a long term commitment.
China builds productive and closer relations with countries in Asia and the world including those in Central Asia and Southeast Asia, Africa, Europe and Latin America. All of these relations are based on a pragmatic security policy, stronger economic growth and diplomacy intensively carried out by Chinese officials. China's development had even begun before the World Trade Center (WTC) attack in September 2001 took place. After the WTC attack, China's involvement in a strategic partnership with the United States in military operations in Afghanistan, Iraq and global counterterrorism campaigns brought benefits to China to expand its influence at strategic regional and international levels. This country seems to have overshadowed Japan in terms of influence, has become an Asian dominant force in the Asia Pacific region, and is respected as one of the main factors in the regional and global political developments. China that seems to have overshadowed Japan's influence, took over the role at the same time with the stronger relations built by China with countries in Asia and the world.
Since the end of the Cold War, Chinese leaders have began to formulate policies that focus on the future of security and welfare with the objective of showing the country's intent to reestablish cooperation with other countries in Asia. However, the appearance of China as a big country has raised a new problem for its neighboring countries in the region. It is because many countries perceive China's approach as a way to recapture the glory of the past, which had been cruelly destroyed by the Western nations and later on by Japan during the ‘Shame and Humiliation’ era in 1840-1940.
China's Ambiguous Stance
During the Cold War, China solely focused on how to maintain its national security amidst the competition of two dominating powers. The idea was how China could fight against one of the great powers or even both of them at the same time along with their allies. The Chinese Government's perspective was, ‘Military power is the most important support in the mission of defending territorial sovereignty and integrity of a country, against the aggression of foreign nations and in maintaining the wholeness of a country.’ Therefore, China felt the need to strengthen its military power to achieve the abovementioned mission. It was so although direct military threat had declined since the division of the Soviet Union.
However, the intent to capture the glory should not always be perceived as the drive to expand aggressively by controlling a certain country or territory. China's rise should be understood as the country's intent to rebuild its status as the center of civilization. Since the current global trend challenges China not only to develop its power (military and economy), but also in terms of civilization. Catching up with the Western military is an important thing and it should followed by a social transformation. This has become a different concern for the Chinese nation in capturing the grandeur of civilization where the country's position is highly developing economically and militarily, and the trauma of the ‘Shame and Humiliation’ era is still haunting them.
China's ambiguous stance worsens the situation which is full of suspicions from other countries, as they feel that they are in dangerous spots and anarchy is likely to happen: an essential characteristic in the international system environment. In dealing with uncertain dynamics in global security and having no guarantees, the option of developing military power has been perceived as a rational move by a country. Furthermore, we know that in 1980 China had not had a closed policy so it was difficult to know its national stance and objectives.
China's Old and New Security Policies
At the end of the Cold War a new thinking of concept of anarchy emerged. According to Giddens, ‘The relation between structure and actor involves the inter-subjective understanding and the meaning of an interaction. A Structure certainly confines the actor into a certain space, but the actor can also change the structure by thinking and acting according to his own image.’
Conventional constructivists are traditionalist thinkers who not only accept the state and military security concept, but they also agree that strategic studies and international relation must be focused on the explanation on state behavior, because substantially and epistemologically that has been the long applied rule in international relation.
Since the beginning Wendt has explained the meaning of international relation or strategic study is the relation between states that does not recognize security dilemma like the realist and neo-realist thinkers. When a state understands in sharing its culture, its identity is open for a conceptualization, not only a calculation of power. Wendt also suggests that the anarchy system has three structures at the macro level (international politics and foreign policy) based on the role in the anarchy system, namely: enemy, rival, and friend or ally. Therefore, we can see that an anarchy structure has constructive components, but we must remember that the constructive components vary in the macro level that they have different final results.
Anarchy is like an empty ship without the intrinsic logic, and it is the structure that comes from us that makes the anarchy work. The inter-subjectivity structure is formed by a collective meaning. The international relation actor needs the identity that Wendt calls the specific role understanding that is relatively stable by participating in the collective meaning. Identity is the driving force of international actors in creating the motivation and characteristic of behaviors. Identity is significant because it creates the interest that becomes the foundation of a state. Because a state identity that is created by an actor is not something that naturally emerges.
For that reason, Wendt believes that the concept of individual and other people comes from the interaction between states. The state actor that always have institutional regulations, claims for monopoly of the legitimacy for the use of organized violence, sovereignty, civilization, and territory. This is present in the interaction of an independent state in the social context, where the state has four national interests, namely to maintain and defend security, autonomy, economic sustainability and collective recognition.
Therefore, constructivism can be understood as a construction of a state that sees the importance of the idea factor as its constructors namely culture, belief, norms, ideas, and identity. It usually focuses on its state behaviors. For that reason, in their analysis, constructivist thinkers see or build the security structure based on the history of behaviors and constructors.
Critical Security Study
Thinkers of Critical Security come from two schools of thought, namely the Copenhagen School and the Frankfurt School. The Critical Security study focuses on the individuals of a state. Individuals here can provide a concept on the peaceful world order. Conceptually, the critical security study believes that 'men as individuals are the primary reference' to create a security concept, because a state cannot guarantee the security because of the vast scope of state in explaining theories on security. Because of the large number of theories, a state will certainly face difficulty in providing 'a comprehensive theory on security'.
The critical security study on emancipation can be traced to be explicitly originated from the Frankfurt School, especially in Habermas' explanation on the emancipator's potential in interaction and communication. The critical security study states that the definition of security as a theory has been an analysis on the security concept that is most threatening, thus individual perception must also be accounted for in the search for the appropriate definition for security concept.
We can see that the concept of a state as a single actor is no longer significant. Human Security is currently the identity and connection to the community and culture. There are three assumptions that we can use to see human security. The first assumption is qua persons, as the object of the security itself, reminds the state to realize and analyze its actions in protecting its people. Protection of individuals in the community cannot be compared to the support for countries, but it focuses on the individual's human rights and the law enforcement that protects every individual from one another and from the state institutions that do not serve its people well.
The second assumption is (focusing on individuals of qua citizens) that illuminates the contemporary life that is important and dynamic which is consistently blurred by the neo-realists: where direct threats attacking individuals do not come from anarchic international environment and other citizens, but from organized and institutionalized violent groups that come from their own state. And the last, the third aspect, individuals as the object of the security, by treating them as a member of transcendental human community that have the same perception. The shift on focus of Human Security paradoxically enables the involvement of broader global threats.
China's Security Policy and ASEAN's Response
With the rise of China, many policymakers in other countries have the same concern over this country. Does China's rise have an intent and motivation to challenge the existing system? Do Chinese new leaders tend to be aggressive realists? Do they have the revisionist's belief? This reference is not only seen from China's power alone, but from the external situation and threats felt through China's leaders, and their perception and belief will reflect their strategic culture.
The end of Cold War also signified a change in China's leadership from Deng Xiaoping to Jiang Zemin. China's new leaders must realize that the systemic change based on the disintegration of the Soviet Union brought significant changes in China's security environment. After having been reforming itself for decades and opening itself, China's domestic situation has also changed.
The New Security Concept (NSC) has given contribution to China's leaders to prepare a new security strategy. At the end of Deng's leadership, China had relaxed its relationship with the United States and suggested an independent policy and emphasized on peace, the central point of policy is reactive and passive, and the objective of the policy is none other than to avoid the involvement in war or conflict. When compared to the non-alignment approach, the NSC emphasizes on dialogues and active consultation to prevent war and conflict through confidence building measures (CBMs). The NSC helps China to be actively involved in international issues because according to China's leaders, CBMs and dialogues suggested in NSC will facilitate China to gain political support, because it is based on the Confucian standard of ‘virtue and morality:
This fact shows us that China's New Security Policy still holds on to the values of Confusian and Sun Tzu that emphasize on the importance of avoiding war and the aggressive character feared by other countries will emerge together with China's rise. Therefore, it is very important to understand the values that remain the important belief in China's Policy. The works of Confucius and Sun Tzu significantly influence China's strategic thinking and behaviors. Confusian strategic culture, that has been the way of China's decision makers, has been underestimated or ignored by Western scholars. Confucian view on China's strategic behaviors is that China in general shows reluctance to use violence. Even under security threat, diplomatic ways and negotiations are preferred and proposed as the first choice. However, if hard power has to be used under the condition that all other ways do not work, China will continue to seek the opportunity to return to the negotiation table for peaceful resolution, thus reducing further damage.
China's defensive nature can be seen from the Great Walls, which are famous in the world and were built from the War State Period (403-221 BC) to the Ming Dynasty (1368-1644). The walls were the defense frontlines against external aggressions. In fact, the Great Walls are the symbol of China's defense and security strategy. When the use of force is ‘inevitable’, it must be based on the right standard, which means that the objective of war is to fight against the people who have created the war condition (invasion) or to stop the persecution of the weak by the powerful.
According to Confucius, yi or ‘truth or high moral standard’ is the foundation to gain people's support and to unite the people. Chinese political and military elites widely believe that ‘there won't be any way out of defeat if battles in war are waged without the right reason’ and emphasize that ‘power must be used with a certain reason’. When a war breaks out, China's strategy tends to rely on the defensive nature and limited use of power. Major attacks will only be launched to punish, prevent and maintain security rather than for destruction.
In facing new challenges, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) realizes the importance of involvement in the security policy making. PLA saw the possibility of playing a bigger role when China developed its military power, as in 2004 Hu Jintao formulated, ‘giving security guarantee for the national interests,’ which was then translated into defending further interests. China has fought well in the ‘defensive and offensive wars’ for the purpose of creating a security environment to achieve its national objectives. The defensive battles or war in the future can be waged to secure China's control over disputed territories with South Korea and Japan, and to achieve the ‘sacred mission’ and ‘reunification’ with Taiwan. The PLA is the key to hard line lobbying of policy against Taiwan, Japan and the US-led alliance system in Asia.
The Southeast Asia region is a strategic place for China to move its nuclear power together with the charm of military involvement campaign, which is meant to bring about operation training exercises and arms sales. China creates this scenario to strengthen its influence against the US domination by using soft diplomacy and hard-power piling ups. For instance, in December 2005, inspired by Malaysia, China helped establish the East Asia Summit, with the objective of creating a forum which excluded the United States. In the mid until late 1990s the PLA began to step up the involvement of Southeast Asian fellow countries, moving to a new point in late 2005 where PLA began to show that PLA and Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries' armed forces had began to hold military training exercises. Thailand is the fist country in Southeast Asia to hold a military training exercise with PLA in Guangzhou in July 2007. The following impact that became the reason behind the joint exercise was greatly expected by China considering that Thailand has had a close relationship with PLA in terms of soldiers and naval weapons sales. China had also marketed primary weapons: type 071 LPDs and 10 J fighters to Malaysia, Type 309 submarines to Thailand, Z-9 choppers to the Philippine, and possibly missiles to Indonesia.
China has pursued independent and peaceful security policy since the 1980s. The objective of China's security policy is to maintain a peaceful international environment, which later on will be useful for China's long term economic and social developments. There are four characteristics circulating in China's current security policy: peace, independence, mutual respect and cooperation.
First, China's security policy was formulated from the perspective of whether it is beneficial for peace and international and regional stability, not only from the perspective of achieving military superiority.
Second, with regard to independence, China formulated its security policy in accordance with the national interests and the interests of nations from all countries in the world.
Mutual respect shows that China wants to put its relations with other countries based on mutual respect, and it wants to see that international politics, security and non-proliferation agreements are based on mutual respect among the members.
Cooperation shows that China wants to continue cooperation based on ‘Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence’ with all countries in the world, including the United States, and it wants to put into realization a harmonious living among big countries.
China's intent to create a new image in security can also be seen in the Defense White Paper. Through the Defense White Paper, the Chinese government wants to explain the new dimension of security which is not only traditional, but also non-traditional security. Clearly in that context China wants to explain the importance of the growing economic issues, increasing needs for academics and policy makers to make peace by broadening the security concept. This feature defines that China's security interest is completeness. Essentially, this means that security is defined not only from the military aspect, but the political and economic dimensions are also the key components.
Since 1998, China has published its Defense White Paper twice a year to explain the national defense policy to the world. With the international security situation and change of environment, China's national defense policy in different historical periods has been adjusted accordingly but the basics remain unchanged. These basics are: China's national law (Constitution of People's Republic of China and National Defense Law), international relations, principles, international security situation, national security interests, responsibility of a big country, China's historical tradition and national culture, and warfare basic pattern.
China's Defense White Paper also explains about the evolution of PLA and its expanding role. Beyond the conception of the traditional military security, a Chinese analyst believes that the armed forces of all countries must play the role in countering new security threats such as terrorism and that international cooperation is needed to overcome such threats and even issues such as counterterrorism, epidemic disease medication, disaster prevention and fight against trans-national crimes have been indentified as measures where countries need to overcome them together. Currently, China supports counterterrorism convention and relevant legal frameworks and reached a consensus on a comprehensive draft of International Convention on Terrorism. In addition, China has called on Southeast Asian countries to strengthen cooperation in counterterrorism and drug abuse in a regional seminar on non-traditional security cooperation. In brief, it is important to note that China emphasizes on the need to strengthen armed forces to meet the military challenges from potential rival countries, but also sees the need to fight non-state enemies such as trans-national terrorism. Here, the public can see that even when discussing military security, China realizes that some non-state troops can be as threatening as the major forces that challenge China. China gives a positive view in the Asia Pacific region based on economic growth, creates long term good neighborly relations, and integrates more with other countries. China also shows its awareness as stated in the Defense White Paper:
‘However, there still exist many factors of uncertainty in Asia Pacific security. The drastic fluctuations in the world economy impact heavily on regional economic development, and political turbulence persists in some countries undergoing economic and social transition. Ethnic and religious discords, conflicting claims over territorial and maritime rights and interests remain serious, regional hotspots are complex. At the same time, the U.S. has increased its strategic attention to and input in the Asia Pacific region, further consolidating its military alliances, adjusting its military deployment and enhancing its military capabilities. In addition, terrorist, separatist and extremist forces are running rampant, and non traditional security issues such as natural disasters crop up frequently. The mechanisms for security cooperation between countries and regions are yet to be enhanced, and the capability for coping with regional security threats in a coordinated way has to be improved.’
In the Defense White Paper China also gives information on the development of military power, built-up defense, and defense expenses. This information was still classified by the old Chinese regime. However, by showing the information to the public, China wants to create the impression that the rise and development of China are meant to support and protect peace. China's intent to support world peace is also found in the Defense White Paper as quoted in the following:
‘China persists in developing friendly relations, enhancing political mutual trust, conducting security cooperation and maintaining common security with all countries on the basis of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. The Chinese government is actively involved in multilateral cooperation within the framework of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). At the Bishkek Summit in August 2007 the SCO member states concluded the Treaty on Long Term Good Neighborly Relations, Friendship and Cooperation, laying a solid political and legal foundation for security cooperation and ushering in a new phase of political mutual trust among the member states.’
China's Domination in Southeast Asia
ASEAN member countries took a careful stance when dealing with China, as this has been passed on for generations considering China's aggressiveness in its past history. China supported revolutionary groups in 1960s and then supported the Khmer Rouge to conduct genocide in Cambodia, launched attacks in Vietnam in 1979, and gradually occupied disputed territories in the South China Sea in the 1980s and the 1990s. However, over the last decade China's approach seems to have drastically changed, but the China's goal of expanding its domination in Southeast Asia remains the same.
To increase its influence in Southeast Asia, China has used Southeast Asian increasingly developing economy and its relations with Chinese ethnic communities spread out in this region. China's approach to these two issues draws more attention of ASEAN member countries than Washington's approach that brings the controversial terrorism issue considering that ASEAN member countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines are dominated by the Muslim community. This can also be seen in the cooperation established by ASEAN member countries where in the post Cold War era Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines were open for cooperation with the United States. Meanwhile, apart from the three abovementioned countries, Malaysia and Indonesia are also willing to build military ties with Beijing. It is one thing that cannot be imagined in the mid 1990s.
ASEAN was established on 8 August 1967 in Bangkok by five countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand and Brunei Darussalam joined it on 8 January 1995, Laos and Burma on 23 July 1997, and Cambodia on 30 April 1999. ASEAN territories have 500 million of population, the total size of 4.5 million sq km, joint gross domestic product of nearly $700 billion, and the total trade of around $850 billion.
The rise of China has made ASEAN realize that they too have to set aside the differences and begin to expedite the management of this organization that has yet to seriously look for the best solution in the defense field. In fact, the ASEAN Security Community is perceived as having many weaknesses, especially at the moment China releases a new security policy. Border issue remains the interest of both parties. Claims over the South China Sea and Spratly islands are still in the agenda of ASEAN and the UN meeting forum. Philippine President as the ASEAN Chairman clearly states that, ‘if China maintains its sense of ownership and does not care (about the South China Sea), ASEAN will stand up as a bloc and go against it,’ Aquino added. ‘Hopefully, we don't have to call it the South China Sea because the sea is not theirs alone.’
The most relation disturbing issues are prejudice and misunderstanding. Because in the 1990s China chose to continuously use bilateral approach instead of the multilateral one to resolve international conflicts, it seems that the option decreased the prospect of establishing an effective regional institution. China's ambiguous stance is one of the causes, as Beijing is sometimes willing to participate in the international regime and multilateral efforts in resolving a problem, but the stance directly changes when the issue being discussed obstructs China's national interests, especially the issue of territorial sovereignty that discusses the country's historical side. Especially when China was forced to resolve the Spratly Islands dispute in early 1990s, the country's stance nearly ruined the effort of international institutions in reducing security conflicts in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF).
Misunderstanding and Prejudices
ASEAN has, in fact, tried to build cooperative relations with China since the early 1990s. In 1991 for the first time China attended as observer the 24th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Three years later, Foreign Minister Qian Qiche and ASEAN Secretary General exchanged a memorandum of understanding and the ASEAN-China Relations was finally announced officially in Bangkok on 23 July 1994. ASEAN was given the full dialogue status to China at the 29th Ministerial Meeting in Jakarta in 1996.
Among the cooperation agreements made and agreed on by China with ASEAN, two of the most important cooperation agreements were agreed on in Phnom Penh in 2002 namely: ‘the Declaration on management arrangement and involved parties in the South China Sea’ and ‘Agreement on Economic Cooperation Framework between ASEAN and the People's Republic of China’. The two cooperation agreements can be seen as the pillars that constructed a new relationship between China and ASEAN after they managed to eliminate a lot of misunderstanding and prejudices. In the 1990s, China and ASEAN were in the Spratly Islands dispute, which could have lead to a serious armed conflict. China finally signed an agreement with Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Brunei to reduce the tension in that region.
With the presence of China's new security policy, the relationship of ASEAN and China apparently enters a new phase. Although the road gone through by both parties was full of obstacles, the relationship between China and ASEAN is getting closer and better. China finally can accept and realize the importance of pluralism, unlike its behavior before the last decade, where it still had relied on bilateral relationships in dealing with a problem with another country. China's involvement in ARF and then ASEAN plus three shows the intent of the country to see multilateralism as a good cooperative relation.
Role of ARF Regional Forum
However, controversial statements that frequently expressed by China have raised concern and confusion among ASEAN member countries. For instance at the ARF meeting in Brunei in 1995, Chinese foreign minister shocked the audience by stating that it had accepted the UN convention (including the one concerning Maritime Law) as a base to resolve the South China Sea disputes. This is a forward move for that country that still upholds its China's traditional policy that claimed islands based on 'historical' rights. At the same meeting, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson laid China's claims over 'irrefutable sovereignty' over the islands and waters near their territory and rejected ARF's role in the discussion of this issue.
For some time, China had shown self control in dealing with the claims made by Manila and Kuala Lumpur. During Philippine President Corazon Aquino's visit to Beijing in April 1988, China promised that it would not attack the Philippine troops stationed in Spratly Islands. When visiting Singapore in 1990, Chinese Prime Minister Li Peng expressed China's willingness to set aside the sovereignty issue and work together with Southeast Asian countries to develop collective resources. However, Beijing continued to pursue its territorial claims by adopting the territorial maritime law in February 1992, which claimed the entire Spratly Islands and be ready to use power to support the claims.
Political and Economic Cooperation Framework
ASEAN has claimed to have made some successful moves in dealing with China on the Spratly issue. This organization has managed to put the dispute in the ARF agenda, despite China's initial objection. With intensive lobbying by ASEAN member countries, China finally agreed to accept the agenda. In addition, ASEAN has been able to make an agreement with Beijing to hold the China-ASEAN multilateral consultation on security issues, including the South China Sea disputes. This fact made China reverse its previous stance of maintaining claims over the South China Sea and its contents. Then, ASEAN is able to influence China to find the solution for its territorial disputes using the framework of Law, the UN, the Maritime Convention and guarantee on navigation freedom in the sea claimed by China. ASEAN's effort to turn the disputes into an international issue shows China's great sacrifice of being willing to get into the diplomatic approach medium.
However, the protocol process of the relation between ASEAN and China was carried out very slowly. Therefore, a bilateral agreement was made between China and Vietnam in October 1993 declaring that both parties would not use any sort of forces that could put the ASEAN-China relation in danger.
Another bilateral agreement was made between China and the Philippines in August 1995 aimed to establish cooperation in navigation safety, marine research, rescue operations and environment protection, and dispute resolution negotiations. However, the agreement had yet to resolve the problem between Manila and Beijing. In August 1997, ASEAN agreed to consider China's draft proposal, a political and economic cooperation framework, that included 'behavioral norms' as the guidelines for establishing relationship between both parties, also for peaceful dispute resolution. (However, this draft did not refer to negotiations over sovereignty) A draft code of ethics was circulated in Manila at the ASEAN Foreign Ministerial Meeting in July 1999, and as a result, ASEAN member countries considered the code of ethics as too legalistic, as it took the form of a formal agreement, while the other members preferred to refer to the initial guidelines (more consistent with ASEAN Way).
Negative Image of ASEAN
This clearly shows that there was no ASEAN country that sees diplomacy as a very easy way to prevent conflict in Spratly Islands. The South China Sea disputes have become the main consideration behind the military modernization program and critical planning of ASEAN countries. The biggest threat in the Spratly Islands dispute for ASEAN is the internal division in dealing with China. This can present negative image of ASEAN where ASEAN solidarity is only an unreal imagination. Meanwhile, China has continued to push forward some forms of bilateral agreement to resolve a conflict or a problem. The form of cooperation shown by China and ASEAN as a way to find the solution for a dispute clearly shows Max Weber's concept on the interdependence condition as a result of the new understanding on the similarity of concept and values among involved countries. China's non-violent stance can be accepted by ASEAN member countries as a positive action that shows peace, so that it creates an opportunity to open up a new relation.
The rise of China into one of the strong and stable country in Asia shows that the country has its influence at the regional and international levels. However, China's rise still makes many Western observers doubt the country's stance. Therefore, it presents an ambiguous result in deciding the stance to take in dealing with China's rise dan its impact on global politics, and it brings up request on the appropriate paradigm to face China's rise in order to avoid making mistakes in foreign policy making. To further understand China's foreign policy behavior, the cultural factor is one of the important factors but it is not easy to understand.
Assessment
An existing relation in the international politics is based on some factors that construct the relation such as history and values upheld by each country. This is certainly becomes the important base in building a multilateral relation which has become a trend recently. These factors can also become our reference in seeing the relation between China and ASEAN.
China has a new security policy as the main force among developing countries that is peaceful in nature. This is certainly shown by this country in the shift of approach, from militaristic to diplomatic. In addition, China also challenges the domination of a country dan supports the harmonization by countries of equal power.
However, ASEAN has yet to fully understand the threat from this country. This is seen from the objective of China that actually came from the domination of market and its products in the economic field. The threat in the security field is relatively nonexistent because ASEAN and China have been actively cooperating militarily such as through joint training exercises and China's support for the Malacca Strait. Because of the broad expansion of economic market China wants to cooperate with ASEAN.
The second thing regarding the values that construct China's policy is the peaceful values. The influences of Sun Tzu and Confucianism are still closely attached to today's Chinese thinkers and leaders. In fact they are unintentionally reflected from the behavior and policy made by China. These values are sometimes neglected by strategic experts in projecting China's interests at the international level.
However, there are things to remember in understanding the values of China's policy. This can certainly be seen in the pseudo peaceful rise or that China's peaceful rise is only a wrapping that we should be aware of in seeing China's aggressiveness that intends to replace the declining US domination. But it would not be easy because China also realizes that its rise is not a single rise like that of the United States after the Cold War, but other new powers such as India, Brazil and Indonesia have also been born.
The biggest challenge faced by ASEAN actually lies in the historical memories of respective countries that form different perceptions in dealing with China. This is certainly a challenge in itself in how ASEAN wants to come forward as unanimous every time it meets with China. One the other hand, this frequently becomes an access for China to establish bilateral cooperation.
Based on the fact that we can see the efforts made by ASEAN to face China's new security policy, ASEAN realizes the importance of China as one of the cooperation partners that since 1991 and eventually in 2002 both parties signed an agreement containing the commitment to eliminate all negative prejudices in both parties.
1. Diplomacy: ASEAN in approaching China prioritizes diplomacy and multilateralism. China's move of wanting to resolve the Spratly Islands dispute with dialogue was warmly welcomed by ASEAN. This organization also learned to be unanimous in the forums that really require ASEAN to be so.
2. Multilateral Cooperation: ARF or ASEAN Regional Forum. China that previously disagreed with multilateral cooperation began to open up to follow the trend of global change which is no longer bipolar but multipolar. Therefore, China felt the need for the involvement of many countries to help achieve the interests of China and ASEAN in this case.
China's security policy has always drawn the attention of many countries, especially neighboring countries like ASEAN. However, as a rising country, China feels that the increased capacity of PLA is a logical step, which other countries would do if they were in the same position. On the other hand, many countries are concerned about the country's increased military power which will reveal the real face of aggressive China. Unfortunately, the values and belief contained in China's policy are relatively unknown to other countries. In reality, China's policy in managing its rise is to support the peaceful diplomacy and promoting dialogues without conflict and the use of weapons.

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

US Vice President Joe Biden's Visit to China

US Vice President Joe Biden visited China at the invitation of Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping. The meeting between the Chinese host and the US guest was carried out in a calm, peaceful and polite atmosphere without the United States dictating its traditional arrogant attitude toward China. On Beijing's side, China has also stressed its confidence in the US economy. The last time we observed such a peaceful scene in US-China public diplomacy was when Chinese and US national leaders met after the 2008 global financial tsunami. It can be observed that the similar kind of peaceful diplomatic scene has again emerged with the visit of US Vice President Joe Biden to China.
Bilateral Economic Issue
On one hand, it is because the US economy has again faced with economic difficulty while on the other hand, China's economy was also badly affected by it. When both countries have to absolutely depend on each other for economical support, China and the United States have no choice but to rise to the occasion and join hands again to go through this difficult economic time together. On the other, one of the focuses of Biden's visit to China has also come with Biden's intention in wanting to get to know this future national leader of China Xi Jinping better. In this regard, it is crucial for the United States to avoid the hardening of the US bilateral ties with China at this juncture so that when the Chinese and US leaders meet again in the near future, the meetings between them will not become somehow difficult and stiff.
During US Vice President Joe Biden's visit to China, the United States did not pressure China on issues relating to China's human rights, freedom of expression, freedom of religious, and other sensitive topics. Issue on the US stand to demand the appreciation of Chinese currency Renmibi has also been put aside. In addition, before Biden arrived in China, issue relating to the US arms sale to Taiwan has also been shelved through the message given out by the US media. As such, Biden's visit to China has given outsiders an impression that there was an added air of harmony and peace with less hostility in the public diplomacy between China and the United States. The focus point of the discussion during Biden's meeting with Chinese leaders was on bilateral economic issue only.
The US federal debt issue has triggered tremendous turbulence in international financial markets and there is a grave concern that the US economy might encounter another round of recession. As the largest creditor of US Treasury debt, how China views the economic outlook of the United States has become one of the intentions for Biden to find out during his visit to China.
On the first day of US Vice President Joe Biden's visit to China, Biden stressed that China and the United States were the two nations that held the key to global economic recovery. He said the stability of world economic will need to rely on US-China cooperation. In other words, the United States wants to move closer to China on economic cooperation. Later on, when it was Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping's turn to express his view, Xi said: "The US economy can rebound quickly. The self-repair capacity of the United States is also very strong. We believe that after the US economy has gone through the crisis, the future of US economy will be better than now." This positive view of Xi Jinping on the US economy should allow the Obama administration to have a peace of mind.
Future Prospects
During his six-day visit to China, Biden has engaged several rounds of talks with Xi Jinping. In addition, when Xi Jinping accompanied Joe Biden for his visit to Sichuan and other places, both the two leaders indeed have the opportunity to develop close personal contact. Such close personal contact between leaders from the two countries should be helpful for both sides to establish good working relationship in the coming days. Although the US Vice President does not process as much authority as the Chinese Vice President, especially in the case of China w hen Xi Jinping is expected to move up and take over the Chinese President post when it is time for the Communist Party of China to carry out national leadership transition next year, yet after all, in the case of the United States, Biden is still US President Barack Obama representative during his visit to China.
While in China, Biden told Chinese President Hu Jintao face-to-face of his intention to establish good personal relationship with Xi Jinping. Biden also said that President Obama and he hoped that Xi Jinping can continue Hu Jintao's China policy toward the United States in the coming years. If President Obama can be reelected as the second term US President next year, then such a good working relationship that Biden has already established with Xi Jinping will be helpful to further stable the development of US-China relationship. Of course, if Obama does not win in the coming US presidential election, then this will be entirely a different matter.

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

First China-US Meeting on Asia-Pacific Region

China and the United States held their first round of consultations on Asia-Pacific in Hawaii on 25 June, which was hailed by both sides as positive and beneficial. The one-day closed-door consultations were co-chaired by Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai and US Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell.
Friendly, Candid and Constructive
Calling the consultations "friendly, candid and constructive," Cui said it was the outcome of the third round of the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) held in May to implement the consensus reached by Chinese President Hu Jintao and his US counterpart Barack Obama during Hu's visit to the United States in January.
The two sides praised the progress made in bilateral ties since President Hu's visit, stressing that they would continue to boost China-US cooperative partnership as envisioned by the two heads of state, Cui told reporters after the talks.
Region and Regional Issues
They also had in-depth exchange of views on the general situation of the Asia-Pacific, their respective policies on the region and regional issues of common concern, Cui said. The two sides agreed to use the consultation mechanism as a platform to keep close contacts and coordination on the regional situation and respective policies to advance bilateral cooperation in the Asia-Pacific and play an active role in safeguarding regional peace, stability and prosperity.
The two countries held "open and frank" discussions with his Chinese counterpart, with the goal of "attaining better understanding of each other's intentions, policies and actions toward the Asia-Pacific region. The United States reiterated that it welcomes a strong, prosperous and successful China to play a greater role in regional and world affairs.
China and the United States discussed issues related to the Asia-Pacific, as well as each other's objectives at a series of meetings, including the Association of South East Asian Nationa (ASEAN) regional forum, Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders meeting to be held in Hawaii, the Pacific Islands Forum and East Asian Summit. It was also agreed that the next round of China-US consultations on Asia-Pacific will be held "at a mutually convenient time."
Established during the third round of the S&ED on May 9-10 in Washington, the mechanism of China-US consultations on Asia-Pacific was an important step to materialize the achievements of President Hu's US tour in January as well as the consensus reached between the two countries at the latest round of the S&ED.

The creation of the mechanism would help usher in a pattern of positive interaction between China and the United States in the Asia-Pacific region so that the two countries could cooperate better to boost the region's stability and development.

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

2012: Year of Change of Big Powers’ Governments

US President Barack Obama has announced that he would contest the presidential election in 2012. Not only he, the leadership of four more permanent members of the UN Security Council is also facing election phase in their respective countries and the change of leadership may possible be seen. Obama announced to participate in the presidential election at a time when he recalled his bombers from Libya. But perhaps to fulfill his this promise or for the time being to show the American people that he intends to fulfill his promises, including the promises he had made in 2008 that he would call back the US troops from across the world, but it is the phase of producing the proof of his US citizenship. He is presenting his birth certificate.
Economic Crisis
British Prime Minister David Cameron too faces elections and perhaps he too may be far away from the success because his coalition government may face any economic crisis. There are signs of change in China as well. Xi Jin Yung will replace Hu Jintao there.
In the case of Russia, the election of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev depends on Vladimir Putin.
The success of the French president depends on his success in Libya and his office is at stake in the Libyan war.
As far as Obama is concerned, he still enjoys popularity and is moving fast and the killing of Usama Bin Laden has upped his popularity graph and history is with him. Republicans have yet not nominated their candidate. Perhaps, the 2016 election may be their target because currently they have no personality, who could compete with Obama. They are, however, definitely being accused in the US that they do not take hard stance against the enemies and ignore friends. If Sarah Palin emerged successful, it would be a historical jerk but its chances are very slim. For the success, Obama also needs success in Libya while the game of the chances of success in Afghanistan and withdrawal of troops from there will have to be played whereas in the US, there is talk of dialogue with 400 Taliban.
The Americans have made much investment on Russian President Medvedev, as they consider him a moderate person and supporter of a moderate policy. The Americans believe that he would avoid the policy of confrontation with the US because their problems too are of very serious nature. This is the reason that he avoids raising voice against the US and NATO because he is aware of the difficulties hovering around Russia. Their economy is not on sound footing and their population is decreasing. They too face threat from the Islamic extremists and they face the threat of the vacation of Siberia. As far as China is concerned, Obama knows that China is preparing to challenge them. It will definitely happen one day.
Correcting World Situation
The Americans are saying themselves that the US hunger that it correct the world situation or can lesson the difficulties of the world has died and it has started looking inwards. Then, the Americans know a little less about the incoming Chinese president but they are supporters of establishing relations on the economic lines.
1. The China challenging the US and the competition between the US and China is unavoidable. It is very important question as what arrangement Obama makes for it.
2. The Russian wholly depends on one vote of Vladimir Putin as to whether he supports the Russian president or not or he himself becomes the president. If he himself becomes the president, the difficulties may increase for the US but the affairs of Putin are not much good.
3. Third issue is of Afghanistan. This issue will be very important in the election campaign of Obama and that whether he starts fulfillment of his promise or not. The American people will definitely want to see it.
4. Last, the most important thing is that another major terrorism incident can change the entire global scenario. Any non-state actor may do anything such that the power game in the world can be turn down. The world may plunge into a global war or the tension may increase in the world. If the US president wins but the British and French rulers face defeat and in addition to Putin does not accept the pro-US president in Russia, the scenario may change. Bu after the arrest and humiliation of the International Monetary Fund Chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn of French origin, who was a candidate for the French presidency, in a sex scandal, the chances of the success of the incumbent French president have increased. Thus, the US president is advancing the game of next five years.

Saturday, May 7, 2011

ASEAN-China Cooperation

Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao's four-day visit to Southeast Asia has ended with success. In his separate meetings with Malaysian and Indonesian top politicians, all leaders had engaged in cordial and intensive communications and reached better mutual understanding and mutual respect. They had also relayed friendly and essential messages to each other. Given the time constraint, he was unable to cover more countries in his trip. However, it is believed that all Association of South East Nations (ASEAN) member states can feel the sincerity of the Chinese government.
The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) has entered into its second year of implementation and in such a short period, it has made remarkable achievements. As the global economy is plagued by various turbulence and uncertainties, CAFTA has still managed to outperform other regions and maintain an impressive growth. We suppose Wen was impressed during his visit to this region. He will certainly establish more specific and feasible plans for the cooperation between China and ASEAN. Both the governments and private sectors of this region indeed look forward to it.
In the opening ceremony of the Boao Forum for Asia 2011 on 15 April, Chinese President Hu Jintao clearly indicated in his speech that China will strive to unleash the country's spending potential and increase its investment in Asia in addition to boosting its market potential in emerging economies.
Range of Flexibility
The members of CAFTA are virtually the direct targets of his pledge and they are in the forefront. Unleashing spending potential and enlarging investment in the Asian markets are actually the substance of the free trade agreement. Both parties of the free trade agreement will adhere to the agreement of zero or close-to-zero tariff in trade, service industry and investment, and this will naturally provide a wide range of flexibility. In the past one year, it has been proven that the exports of ASEAN countries have risen tremendously and new investment projects have emerged one after another in this region. Now China is going to take one step forward by unleashing its spending potential and enlarging its investment in Asia, it is not difficult to imagine the economic outlook and how it is going to benefit the development of various economies in this region. It is believed that Wen has brought a specific message in his trip to Southeast Asia. Are ASEAN countries ready to seize and fully utilize these opportunities?
Wen chose Malaysia, an ASEAN country that has close ties with China, and Indonesia, the current chair of ASEAN, as the destinations for his first foreign visit in 2011. His 30-hour activity-packed program in Malaysia and his policy speech in Indonesia have left profound impression in people's minds. This year marks the 20th anniversary of the dialogue relationship between ASEAN and China. The timing is commemorative while their success in maintaining such a good working relationship is also among the outstanding around the world. To be more precise, building and maintaining a good relationship and achieving regional economic integration within 20 years are results of highly effective works. With a population of 1.9 billion and $6 trillion Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the implementation of CAFTA will form the bedrock for the emergence of Asia. Is this not valuable?
Lack of Coordination and Unsustainability
CAFTA, which has started its operations for less than two years, is shouldering a tough and important mission of development. All basic member states of ASEAN are developing countries. Each of these economies are under tremendous pressure from the imbalance, lack of coordination and unsustainability in the face of their massive populations, inadequate resources and environmental challenges. They need to undergo tough tests in order to meet the standard and the best solution to overcome these problems is none but close cooperation with a sincere attitude.

The Chinese Government has stressed times and again that they will be 'a good neighbor and good partner to its neighboring countries forever.' Wen stressed to Indonesia, the biggest economy in ASEAN and also the current chair of the ASEAN, that 'We hope Indonesia can play an active and constructive role in the cooperation between China and ASEAN'. This is indeed a well-meaning bid.
12th Five-Year Plan
Investment is an instrument to vitalize economy and strengthen the ties between the two sides. As mentioned earlier, China has confirmed that it is going to increase its investment in Asia and emerging economies in international meetings. During his recent visit to Southeast Asia, Wen brought along the relevant issues or even investment projects that were already confirmed.
However, on the day Wen departed for his official visit, in the 5th Chinese Enterprises Outbound Investment Conference held in Beijing, a number of ministries and commissions under the National Development and Reform Commission announced that they will make joint efforts during the period of the 12th Five-Year Plan by supporting the corporate sector in matters related to finance, taxation, etc. They will amend the opening up strategy from emphasizing the inbound investment to coupling it with the outbound investment to expand the foundation for development. This measure is almost equivalent to a national policy package. It is noteworthy that ASEAN has an additional avenue to attract foreign investment following this development.
Wen Jiabao visited to Southeast Asia along with his concern over regional economic integration. His visit was well received and welcomed the various quarters. This is positive and meaningful to the 'emergence of Asia.' The continuously strengthened economic ties between China and ASEAN have become a valuable bedrock for the modernization of Southeast Asia.

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Manmohan Singh's Foreign Visit

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had detailed discussions with Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev during his foreign visit, and many agreements were signed between India and Kazakhstan.


The prime minister's tour started with China, where members of BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) met at a summit held at the Chinese coastal city of Sanya. An important decision reached at the BRICS conference was that these countries would use their own currencies for making grants and settling debts among themselves, and continue to use US dollar for international trade. The faster their economies rise further, the sooner they would manage to get rid of the use of Dollar, and the better it will be for them.


Encouraging Point


Toward the end of the BRICS Summit, Manmohan Singh met Chinese President Hu Jintao. This must be considered a very important meeting, where the issue of separate visas to Kashmiris was discussed. Jintao did not give any definite assurances to Manmohan Singh. It may be recalled that China started issuing visa on a separate piece of paper to Kashmiris. An encouraging point in this regard was that China issued visas to Kashmiri journalists accompanying the prime minister on their passports itself. Because the prime minister's trip was under the aegis of BRICS Summit, there was no expectation of discussion of any bilateral issues.


Many agreements were reached between the countries during the prime minister's visit to Kazakhstan. This will definitely be considered to be very far reaching. The basis of improvement in relations had already been reached during Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev's India visit in 2009. The most important of these agreements was the civil nuclear energy agreement, under which Kazakhstan will supply 2,100 tons of uranium to India to keep active two nuclear reactors in the country. It was to keep these reactors active that the India-US nuclear agreement had been reached. Supply of uranium from Kazakhstan will be considered to be a relief for India. Apart from other issues, maintenance of the reactors has been included in this agreement.


After the recent tsunami and earthquake in Japan, dangerous consequences of such a disaster have emerged. All nuclear capable countries have heard the alarm bells. Despite the progress in the nuclear field, if humanity wants to escape from a nuclear holocaust, it will have to take firm steps in this regard. The prime minister has offered to set up a technology center in Ursus University in Kazakhstan. India is progressing rapidly in the IT field. It can be said that the prime minister's Kazakhstan visit has been successful.


India's Position in World


India has had deep and long relations with the former Soviet Union. The USSR valued relations with India. After the Soviet Union's disintegration, many independent countries emerged from this area, and it has been to our advantage to have good relations with these democracies. But if we examine these countries closely, we will find that they are still attached to the Soviet Union in some way or the other. That is why we have good relations with former Soviet republics. This has proved to be to our advantage.


With the advent of "globalization," the entire world has become one large village. This has also led to alterations in international relations to some extent. India is carving out a place for itself on the global economic stage as a rising power. Leaning toward China is a dangerous trend, which has been mentioned before. Any country's position in this world is dependent on its economic clout. There can be no two opinions that eternal vigilance is called for in guarding our interests.