Raja Pervez Ashraf Becomes New Pakistani Prime Minister: Political Instability in Country Continues

Water and Power Minister Raja Parvez Ashraf has taken over as the new Pakistani prime minister. Filled with little difficulty with the country’s National Assembly (parliament) electing Ashraf as a replacement for Yousuf Raza Gilani, disqualified by the Supreme Court.

The 61-year-old loyalist of the Bhutto family was pitchforked into the hot seat after the original choice Makhdoom Shahabuddin faced an arrest warrant. But the new leader himself is dogged by corruption charges relating to his tenure as power minister.

The 342-member National Assembly chose Ashraf as the country's 25th prime minister with 211 votes, against Opposition PML-N nominee Sardar Mehtab Ahmed Khan Abbasi who got 89 votes.

Undoubtedly, Ashraf is lucky to have been elevated to the highest executive post, as the first choice of President Asif Ali Zardari, Makhdoom Shahabuddin, missed the bus because of an arrest warrant issued against him by a Sindh court in an ephedrine scam case.

Since the issue was contempt of the highest court in the land the verdict was not unexpected, though the scale of punishment is. While all Supreme Court verdicts must always be honored even if they do not appear to be sound, it may not be possible to avoid a prolonged discussion on the present judgment. There are quite a few issues that will need to be clarified.

To his admirers, Pakistan's Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry is a hero whose relentless pursuit of a money-laundering case against the president is teaching a generation of the country's leaders a long-overdue lesson in respect for the law.

To his critics, he is a runaway judge in the grip of a messiah complex whose turbo-charged brand of activism threatens to upend the power balance underpinning Pakistan's precarious embrace of democracy.

Recently, Chaudhry made his boldest move yet by disqualifying Prime Minister Gilani as punishment for his repeated refusal to obey court orders to re-activate a corruption case against President Zardari.

Gilani's downfall marked a watershed in a long-running showdown between the judiciary and the government that has laid bare the institutional tensions plaguing a country that has test fired ballistic nuclear missiles, but has yet to agree on how it should be run.

"In practical terms, democracy is finished because the balance of power between the parliament, the executive and the judiciary has been ruined," said a senior member of Zardari's ruling Pakistan People's Party (PPP).

Judicial Coup

The military, which has ruled Pakistan for about half of its 65 years as an independent nation, has also not hidden its disdain of the Zardari government, but has made it clear it does not wish to seize power. And it has its own problems with Chaudhry's activism.

The present crisis has its roots in Gilani’s refusal to follow the Supreme Court’s 2009 order to request Swiss authorities to reopen cases of graft against President Zardari. On his part, Gilani has pointed out that the President enjoyed immunity from such charges. But the apex court had disagreed — having only recently overturned a 2007 presidential amnesty to politicians accused of corruption, from which Zardari and his late wife Benazir Bhutto benefited the most. Since then, an epic battle has ensued, with both institutions attempting to protect their own turf. Ultimately, in January the Supreme Court ordered legal proceedings against Gilani, and in April, the then Prime Minister was convicted for contempt of court. At the time, he was given only a token sentence with the apex court leaving it to the Speaker of the National Assembly to decide if Gilani could continue as prime minister.

The drama has been spiced by allegations of bribe-taking brought against Chaudhry's son by a billionaire property developer, who has himself been accused of land-grabbing and fraud. The controversy briefly put the stern-faced judge on the defensive before he regained the initiative by disqualifying Gilani.

The next chapter in the saga started when the Supreme Court holds its latest hearing in more than two years of legal wrangling aimed at forcing the government to re-open proceedings against Zardari.

Pakistan's political class is now transfixed by the question of whether Chaudhry will opt to pause in the wake of his victory over Gilani, or press home his advantage by demanding that Raja Pervez Ashraf, the new prime minister, reactivate the case.

Charges Against Gilani

Earlier on June 19, the Pakistani Supreme Court declared that Gilani stood disqualified as the prime minister since April 26, 2012 and ceased to be the premier since that date. The court punished with 30-second imprisonment. It also asked President Zardari to take steps for continuity of the democratic process, an apparent reference to the election of a new prime minister. Gilani was elected Prime Minister in March 2008 and has remained in that office longer than any other elected leader in the country’s history.

Capping approximately 30 months of bitter feud between the judiciary and the government, a three-judge bench headed by Chief Justice Chaudhry held that Gilani, “ceased” to be the prime minister from April 26, 2012.

Gilani was then convicted and sentenced for not obeying court orders to reopen graft charges in Switzerland against President Zardari.

Contrary to expectations that the PPP will back him to the hilt, the ruling party said it would abide by the verdict and set in motion the process of selecting Gilani’s successor.

The Election Commission also issued a formal notice disqualifying Gilani as a Member of Parliament, hours after the Supreme Court ordered it to do so. A session of the National Assembly or lower house of Parliament is likely to be convened for the formal election of the new prime minister.

The present verdict came in response to several petitions that had challenged National Assembly Speaker Fehmida Mirza’s decision not to disqualify Gilani following his conviction.

However, the timing of the judgment is definitely suspect as it comes only days after a business tycoon accused the Chief Justice’s son of accepting millions in bribes to swing cases. Also, the legal validity of the judgment has come under a cloud. References in the judgment, for instance, to two Indian court cases are largely misplaced.

New Cabinet

A total of 27 Federal Ministers and 11 Ministers of state were given portfolios. Hina Rabbani Khar and Naveed Qamar retained their portfolios of foreign and defense, respectively, in the new Cabinet, announced by Prime Minister Ashraf, which has some new faces. Most of the Ministers in Ashraf's Cabinet have been drawn from the previous dispensation of Gilani.

Hina retained the Foreign Ministry while Qamar Zaman Kaira, who had also filed his nomination for prime ministerial contest as a covering candidate, retained the Information Ministry. Qamar was again assigned the Defense Ministry.

Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, whose PML-Q party is a key ally in the Pakistan People's Party-led coalition, was again inducted as a senior minister and given the Defence Production and Industry portfolios.

Farzana Raja, a loyalist of PPP chief and President Asif Ali Zaradri, was among the new faces inducted into the Cabinet. She was given charge of the Benazir Income Support Programme, a scheme to help the poor.

The other members of the Cabinet include Makhdoom Amin Fahim (commerce), Arbab Alamgir Khan (communication), Nazar Muhammad Gondal (capital administration and development), Rana Muhammad Farooq Saeed Khan (climate change), Abdul Hafeez Shaikh (finance), Mir Hazar Khan Bajrani (inter-provincial coordination), Manzoor Wattoo (Kashmir affairs), Farooq Naek (law and justice).

Brief Profile

A strong loyalist of the Bhutto family, Ashraf hails from a family of agriculturists and remained in his occupation until he joined PPP of Rawalpindi in Punjab. Before joining active politics, 61-year-old Ashraf was an agriculturist and businessman by profession. He obtained his undergraduate degree from University of Sindh and did his diploma from UK in Industrial Management.

Ashraf, who was PPP cochairman Zardari’s second choice for the post of premier, became the main candidate after an arrest warrant was issued against party nominee Makhdoom Shahbuddin for alleged irregularities during his tenure as Health Minister.

Interestingly, Ashraf is facing a probe by the National Accountability Bureau for alleged corruption in rental power projects during his tenure as Water and Power Minister.

He was secretary-general of the PPP (Parliamentarians), a party formed in 2002 by the PPP for the purpose of complying with electoral rules governing Pakistani parties. The party contested the 2002 elections while former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was living in self-imposed exile.

Ashraf, who was elected to the National Assembly from Gujar Khan constituency in Rawalpindi district — both in 2002 and 2008 — served twice in the cabinet of Yousuf Raza Gilani, who was disqualified by the Supreme Court.

Ashraf resigned from Gilani’s cabinet in February 2011 after allegations of corruption in power projects. He returned to the cabinet in April 2012 when he was appointed minister for Information Technology. His candidature was backed by PML-Q, a major ally of the PPP with more than 50 seats in the National Assembly.

Tough Time Ahead

The new Pakistani prime minister not only faces corruption cases against him but is also considered an “insensitive” minister. He is accused of being solely responsible for Pakistan’s energy crisis. Instead of trying to find a workable solution to the worsening power supply problem, he has been making promises which he could never fulfill. It is surprising what made Mr Zardari choose him for heading the government as people have been protesting at different places over unending load-shedding, criticizing Ashraf for mishandling the situation.

Moreover, the new prime minister is also likely to face demands for reopening graft cases against Zardari from the Supreme Court.

Ashraf, who belongs to a royal family of Rawalpindi in Punjab, was elected in a two-way contest during a special session of Parliament after three other candidates – Shahabuddin and Qamar Zaman Kaira of the PPP and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman – withdrew from the race.

Zardari, a consummate political survivor, has already sacrificed Gilani in his determination to ensure the money-laundering case, which falls under Swiss jurisdiction and dates back the 1990s, remains closed.

While many Pakistanis are happy to see his unpopular government on the ropes, the pugnacious chief justice is facing a growing backlash from those who fear his court-room victories are being bought at the price of Pakistan's stability.

India will have to watch his moves as he has declared that he will try to do all he can to improve Pakistan’s ties with New Delhi. But will he have time for such moves when he has so much to concentrate on the domestic front.

2nd Nuclear Security Summit: Tightening Nuke Weapons Design and Programs

The two-day second Nuclear Security Summit concluded in Seoul (South Korea) on March 27. The first was held in Washington DC in April 2010 after US President Barack Obama mooted the idea in a speech in Prague in 2009. President Obama, who singled out nuclear terrorism as the most serious threat to international security in his speech, was in Seoul. Leading the Indian participation in the summit was Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
The gathering of 58 world leaders saw discussing the various issues surrounding nuclear security. The 9/11 attacks in 2001 appear to have spurred countries across the globe to discuss measures that are needed in the event of nuclear materials and facilities actually falling into the hands of non-state actors. Nuclear security is hence seen as a step to combat the threat of nuclear terrorism.
Joint Communique
Seeking strong national measures and global cooperation against nuclear terrorism, world leaders have underlined the central role of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in strengthening the atomic security framework and insisted that the rights of States to peaceful use of nuclear energy will not be hampered.
The leaders said: “We stress the fundamental responsibility of States, consistent with their respective national and international obligations, to maintain effective security of all nuclear materials, which includes nuclear materials used in nuclear weapons and nuclear facilities under their control.”
The communique, adopted by 53 world leaders and five multilateral organizations, also highlighted the fundamental responsibility of the States to prevent non-state actors from acquiring such materials and from obtaining information or technology required to use them for malicious purposes.
In the backdrop of the 2011 Fukushima disaster, the idea of nuclear safety came to the fore at Seoul, with India underlining the need for synergy between nuclear safety and nuclear security. The Seoul communiqué too touches on this aspect. After all, the release of dangerous radioactive materials in sufficient quantities from a legitimate nuclear power plant is no less dangerous than a terrorist stealing and unleashing a dirty bomb.
At a more practical and feasible level, at the Seoul summit, India pushed the expansion of its bilateral ties with South Korea to include the purchase of civilian reactors and military hardware from it, in addition to engaging in space cooperation under which this country would launch South Korean satellites. Maritime security was discussed too between Singh and President Lee Myung-Bak, in addition to stepped up Korean investment in Indian infrastructure.
India’s Stake
Addressing the summit, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said that India had made a strong pitch for membership of four exclusive nuclear clubs contending that it would help strengthen its export control systems and maintain highest international standards of its nuclear program.
He added that India had never been a source of proliferation of sensitive technologies and the country was determined to further strengthen its export control systems to keep them
At the summit, the prime minister said on par with the highest international standards. He underlined that India had already adhered to the guidelines of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NBG) and the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).
Singh said: "As a like–minded country with the ability and willingness to promote global non-proliferation objectives, we believe that the next logical step is India's membership of the four export control regimes."
India is keen for membership of the NSG, MTCR, Wassenaar Arrangement and the Australia Group. At the same time, Singh said an agreed multilateral framework involving all states possessing nuclear weapons was necessary to attain the goal of a nuclear weapons free world.
"This should include measures to reduce nuclear dangers by reducing the salience of nuclear weapons in security doctrines and by increasing universal restraints on the first use of nuclear weapons," he said.
The prime minister also announced a contribution of one million dollars to the IAEA’s Nuclear Security Fund for the years 2012-13.
India has also made some progress, albeit slowly, on its commitment to set up a Global Centre for Nuclear Energy Partnership. It announced that the centre will have a 200 acre campus in Bahadurgarh, Haryana and comprise four different schools covering nuclear security, nuclear energy systems, and radiation safety.
On India's nuclear program, the prime minister said comprehensive reviews of nuclear safety measures have been undertaken at nuclear facilities.
Concern for Pakistan’s Arsenal
President Obama has voiced concern over safety of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, saying the world cannot allow non-state actors and terrorists to get their hands on the nuclear weapons and end up destroying cities.
“We can’t afford to have non-state actors and terrorists to get their hands on nuclear weapons that would end up destroying our cities or harming our citizens,” Obama told reporters alongside Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani before the two leaders held private talks on the sidelines of the summit.
The West is concerned over the safety of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons as it remains vulnerable because the atomic facilities are located in areas where “Taliban and Al-Qaeda are more than capable of launching terrorist attacks”.
In their first meeting since the killing of Osama Bin Laden in a covert US raid on Pakistani soil in May 2011, the two leaders tried to rescue a troubled anti-terror alliance which has been full of mistrust and recriminations in recent times.
North Korea and Iran Warned
The US President has warned North Korea and Iran that their options are few and their friends fewer as those nations refuse to back down from actions the world sees as menacing.
Seoul warned that it might shoot down parts of a North Korean rocket if they violate South Korean territory, as worries about what Washington calls a long-range missile test overshadowed an international nuclear security summit.
Nuclear Terrorism
The leaders at the summit reached a consensus that nuclear terrorism is among the top global security challenges and that strong nuclear material security measures are the most effective way to prevent it. This may not seem like much, but getting 47 nations to agree on any nuclear issue, however innocuous, is not always easy.
In addition, 29 of the countries present made voluntary commitments to enhance nuclear security. Country-specific steps — colloquially termed “house gifts” — were taken ahead of the summit. Thus, Chile removed all its Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) — 18 kg — in March 2010, while the Philippines joined the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism. Several countries, including India, announced that they would create new “centres of excellence” to promote nuclear security technologies.
The outcome Seoul summit, as much as the first one hosted by US President Barack Obama in Washington in 2010, are traceable at the level of theology to President Obama’s Prague speech of 2009. And therein lies the weakness of the enterprise. In that address, the US President had highlighted the dangers of nuclear weapons and nuclear materials falling into the wrong hands, and envisioned a world free of the atom bomb. But until such time as that happens, Obama was quite clear in his vision that the United States would stand ready with its own nuclear weapons to take care of any potential adversary.

Pakistan Faces Chaotic Situation

At present, Pakistan is facing such a chaotic situation that no other Islamic country has faced such crisis. There is not a single but numerous problems, which are of grave concern to 160 million Muslims. There is not a single but so many reasons behind it, and not a single party, person, or group can reform it. However, the government can establish peace in the country. All people are suffering from the economic recession. Undoubtedly, provincial, national, and religious problems have made people worried. No other Islamic country is confronting both of these kinds of issues.
All military dictators have had to eventually face not only armed insurgencies but also large scale democratic movements. The reason behind this has little to do with Pakistanis being great admirers of democracy, because constant military interventions thwarting the evolution of the democratic process has not exactly produced a democratic polity. The main reason why military regimes have had to face intense political opposition in a not-very-democratic Pakistan is that Pakistan (unlike its monolithic military) is an extremely diverse entity with numerous ethnicities, Muslim sects and religions.
It has constantly waged brutal battles against Baloch nationalists (1960-62; 1973-77; 2003-); mercilessly wiped out whole villages with the help of tanks in the interior of Sindh (1983 MRD Movement); ran circles around MQM activists in Karachi (1992), and, of course, has been accused of engineering a genocide of Bengalis in the former East Pakistan in 1971.
Deepening Internal Conflict
The Pakistan Army remains in control of some key national policies such as nuclear weapons, Afghanistan, Jammu and Kashmir, and its hardware procurement. Over the years, it has also developed huge corporate interests and organizational autonomy. It does not allow its democratically elected government to interfere with them.
After every election and taking over the government, the political leaders and even the judiciary, scared of the Pakistani Army brass, tend to suck up to them. Even when Pakistan Army commits military and non military blunders, they have tried to cover and shield its leaders and image, never making anyone accountable. But whenever they have tried to assert or encroach upon Pakistan Army’s interests, they act clumsily and hand over the initiative to the Army on a platter. This has been repeated several times in Pakistan’s recent history.
Pakistan Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani tonight appeared to reach out to the army but the powerful Army Chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani is reported to have adopted a tough stance and wants withdrawal of his statements critical of the military.
With Kayani by his side, Gilani has said that all state institutions will be allowed to play their role, remarks seen as an attempt to resolve the tense stand-off between the civilian government and the military.
Gilani's seemingly conciliatory remarks came on a day when Kayani met President Asif Ali Zardari at the Presidency, in the midst of a tense stand-off between the military and the government over a move purportedly on behalf of Zardari seeking US help to avert an army coup.
Court’s Order to Gilani
Gilani’s continuance in office appeared to be in doubt after the Supreme Court has summoned him to appear in person on January 19 on contempt charges for failure to implement court order on reopening of a money-laundering case against President Asif Ali Zardari in a Swiss court.
The apex court’s order came hours before the Pakistan National Assembly adopted a pro-democracy resolution moved by ruling PPP-led coalition, which could act as a cosmetic booster for the embattled civilian government which is engaged in a tussle with both the powerful army and the influential judiciary.
Nawaz Sharif, who claims that he was not aware of General Pervez Musharraf’s Kargil plan and action, accompanied Musharraf to Pakistan’s Northern Areas to pacify local Baltis whose family members had been killed in Kargil action and whose dead bodies, Pakistan Army refused to accept from us. He defended Musharraf in public and accompanied him to several military stations.
Later, he tried to get rid of Musharraf in the clumsiest way possible. When Musharraf was returning from an official visit to Sri Lanka, he would not allow his plane to land at Karachi Airport and appointed a new Army Chief who was quite junior and unpopular with the establishment. The result: nine years of Army rule under Musharraf and the Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif going to jail and then to exile.
Yousuf Raza Gilani, when appointed Prime Minister, went to call on the Army Chief General Kayani, instead of asking him to visit his office. He tried to place the ISI under civilian control but within 24 hours, he gave in to Kayani’s refusal. He gave Kayani an unheard of three years extension in office and two years extension to Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Chief General Shuja Pasha.
The ISI’s involvement in toppling civil governments, rigging elections, autonomous handling of foreign relations, vigilantism, picking up people and making them disappear is well known in Pakistan. Shuja Nawaz, in his book ‘Crossed Swords’, writes of a sworn affidavit filed by the Pakistani defense secretary in a High Court stating that ‘his ministry had no operational control over the two rogue agencies-ISI and Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR)-and, therefore, was unable to enforce the court’s orders on either agency in matters relating to detentions’.
International Pressure

In fact, since the United States has started interference to achieve it heinous designs in the region, particularly in the Middle East, it has used Pakistan for its own interests. It has started interfering in the internal affairs of the country, and aired different kinds of evils. Resultantly, a Muslim has started coloring his hands with blood of another Muslim.
The only solution to this problem is that the US intervention should be stopped and Pakistan should develop good relations with neighbor countries of India, Afghanistan, Iran and China. Only then Pakistan will get rid of all these issues. At present, not only Pakistan but India, Afghanistan and Iran are also at the verge of terrorism and the United States wants to attack Iran. By carrying out this attack, it wants to fan the fire of sectarianism in Pakistan. The Pakistani Government and people should do nothing but to be united. Steps should be taken to curb these challenges.
Economic and Political Interests
The Pakistani Government's relations with Afghanistan are improving but not to great extent. The ways of communication have also been paved through trade agreements. We must say here that Afghanistan is in dire need of support from Pakistan, as both countries have common economic and political interests and are the need for each other. These needs can be fulfilled only when interference from the United States and other countries, having vested interests, is curbed. Then, there will be no danger of the US involvement in Iran.

Story of China-Pakistan Friendship

A Persian verse is the true reflection of the China-Pakistan friendship. The translation of the said verse is: "a friend in need is a friend indeed."
Time has always proved that China is the only country in this world, which helped Pakistan in testing times. Although the United States also claims to be our friend but in fact it is a friend about which we can surely say, "the one who has friends like you, does not need heavens to be his enemy."
Foundations of Ties
There is no denial the fact that the credit of strengthening Pakistan's friendship with China goes to late Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, whose efforts not only gave it a new direction but eternity. However, not many of us know that the foundations of the China-Pakistan friendship were laid by Pakistan's first Prime Minister Liaqat Ali Khan and Prof Ahmed Ali was the first person to hoist Pakistani flag in Beijing. Before performing this important duty he migrated from Hong Kong to China and established ties with the then communist leadership in China. Resultantly, not only Chu En-Lai, the right hand of Mao Zedong but the other senior members of the Communist party used to visit Pakistan's embassy but often used to sit and talk for hours in the night at Ali's home.
Late Prof Ahmed Ali does not need an introduction as he was in the vanguard of progressive writers' movement and was considered a famous writer of Urdu and English. He no only translated Chinese poetry prior to the revolution but owing to his emotional attachment, he also paid tribute to China in his poems. Ali's personal relations of Chu En-Lai played an important role in furthering China-Pakistan relations. Ali and his family were popular among Chinese and he used to celebrate his Eid along with Chinese Muslims with zeal and zest. Ali had a great affiliation for Chinese pottery, in addition to Chinese arts and paintings. He visited China for the last time with Pakistan's Prime Minister Hussain Shaheed Suhrawardy in 1956, which proved to be of historic importance for strengthening the roots of the friendship between both the countries. While appreciating Chinese, Ali writes: "Chinese are extraordinary self-respecting, practical and nationalist people. They are proud of their ancient history and culture. Affects of their culture could be felt world over. Chinese are proud of having an edge on the other nations of the world and their emperors used to call themselves "Tie'nTzu," i.e., sons of God. Chinese are patient, lively, energetic, and tasteful people. Their cuisine is popular all over the world."
Role in International Relations
Today, China is an excellent power, approved by the entire world, including the United States, the only superpower. Interestingly, the struggle by Muhammad Ali Jinnah and Liaqat Ali Khan for a separate homeland for Muslims of the subcontinent under the banner of the Muslim League coincided with the revolutionary changes in China in forties. Ali was in Nankeng at the time of partition of India.
After Pakistan came into being his family migrated and settled in the nascent state. Later on Ali also traveled through sea and joined his family in Pakistan. Soon he was appointed Director Foreign Publicity. His book the Muslim China was published in 1949 by Pakistan Institute of International Affairs Karachi. In the same year Chinese ruler Chiang Kai-Shek fled to Formosa after defeat and People’s Republic of China (PRC) came into being. Prime Minister Khan encouraged Ali's inclusion in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs because of his ability and knowledge about China. He took charge of Far East Desk in the Foreign Office. He introduced Pakistani leadership with the newly born PRC and its role in the international relations.
People-to-People Contacts
There is no doubt that Pakistan and China share relations higher than Himalayas and deeper than oceans. The sincere friendship of both the countries has become a precedent. Anti-Pakistan powers are worried and scared of this exemplary unity and solidarity. They cannot find a way to create rift between them. The clear and courageous support has pulled Pakistan out of isolation after killing of Osama Bin Laden. Therefore, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani's recent visit to China is much important. China has warned in clear words that no country has any right to violate Pakistan's sovereignty and integrity and no power in this world should dare look at Pakistan with malicious intent.
The most important quality of China-Pakistan relations is people-to-people contacts and both the countries consider each other as obligatory. China has openly announced that China-Pakistan relations would remain unaffected irrespective of any changes in the world. It is imperative that not only the 60th anniversary of China-Pakistan friendship was celebrated with extraordinary zeal but it should be fully reflected through the media. Meanwhile, issuing a commemorative coin will be appreciable. It is must be remembered that Pakistan was the first Islamic country to accept China.

New Geopolitical Equation in Asia

After the dramatic announcement of killing of Osama Bin Laden, a big change in the geopolitics of Asia has become evident centering the dilemma in the relations between Pakistan and the United States. Through this incident, signals are being received regarding a visible role of China and a shrink in the influence of the United States in this region as a split has been created in the relationship between Pakistan and the United States. The plummeting in the Washington-Islamabad relations first came to the limelight through the arrest of a US contractor Raymond Davis, who is known as a Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) spy, for his involvement in the killings of two Pakistani citizens. After languishing for three months in prison, Raymond Davis was freed in March with the payment of blood money.
Since then, it was being thought that the US pressure on Pakistan would be mounted. Exactly this happened. Subsequently, the United States claimed that their commandoes have killed Bin Laden in a raid. Pakistan has described the raid as a blow to its sovereignty. However, the United States has brought an allegation against Pakistani intelligence agency for providing shelter to Bin Laden. Though a number of questions have surfaced centering this raid -- whether Bin Laden was really killed in the attack or he was killed much earlier or anybody else was killed in the name of Bin Laden.
War on Terror
Centering this incident whatever it might be -- the actual Bib Laden killed or no -- Pakistan is trying to come out of the influence of the United States, a long time friend of that country. Within 15 days of the killing of Bin Laden, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani visited China. The Chinese leaders categorically announced that Pakistan has significant contribution to the war on terror. This country is also a victim of terrorism.
The Western countries must show their respect to the sovereignty of Pakistan. The Chinese leaders further announced that Beijing will consider any attack on Islamabad an attack against it and China will always stand beside Pakistan. This announcement from Beijing in the face of an intense pressure from the west was not only a matter of ease for Islamabad, but a clear indication that China support Pakistan at the time of difficulty.
Building Gwadar Port
Massive steps were taken to enhance military relations between China and Pakistan during this visit of Gilani. The area of cooperation also includes transfer of military technology side by side with military assistance. China has assured Pakistan of supplying more than 50 JF Thunder Aircraft within a shortest possible time. In addition, the two countries have reached an agreement on purchasing frigates for the navy and training on operating submarines. Seventy-five percent arms of Pakistani Armed Forces comes from China. Very soon 260 Chinese fighter planes will be added to the Pakistan Air Force. It is being though that Pakistan is going to be a member of Shanghai Cooperation from an observer at the behest of China. And this might add a new dimension to China-India relations in the coming days. During Gilani's visit to China this time, the most important military on the agenda was the proposal of setting up a naval base at Gwadar Seaport, built on assistance from Beijing.
China and India have long been involved in a race for expanding influence in the India Ocean. Comparatively India navy is now stronger in the India Ocean. It can be said India has its hegemony on the sea. An intensive relationship of cooperation of India navy with the US Navy has been added to this. China has to import its fuel oil from the Middle East through the narrow strata of Malacca under the India-US naval surveillance. During any adverse situation the India-US naval power may close down this supply route for China. Alternative sea routes are very essential for China. Beijing is going to be achieved this opportunity this time completely. Gwadar seaport has multifaceted military significance. Virtually this port will be the main center for China to maintain its influence in the southern seacoast of Asia. From there China will be able to maintain its surveillance on the Indian and US Naval Forces.
Gwadar Seaport is very close to the seacoast of Oman. The distance of the Persian Gulf from here is not so far. Before 1958, Gwadar was under Oman. Later, the area was handed over to Pakistan. In 1973, US President Richard Nixon visited Pakistan. During the visit, the then Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto requested Richard Nixon to help building a seaport at Gwadar. Bhutto proposed that Pakistan would ensure benefit of the US Navy from Gwadar if the port was built with assistance from his country. But Nixan did not make any response to that proposal.
Failing to get any support from the US for building the seaport at Gwadar, Pakistan did not abandon its plan in this regard. Later, they sought helps from China in this regard. The work on building the seaport began in 2002 with assistance from China. China invested $200million for construction of the seaport. The first phase of the construction of the port ended in 2006. Singapore Port Management Authority was given the responsibility of running the port. Now China will be given the responsibility of running the port from Singapore Port Authority. A decision has been taken to review soon the port management by Singapore Port Authority.
The work on establishing direct road and railway communications with China from Gwadar seaport has begun so that oil tankers could be transported to Chinese territory from the port. China began the expansion of road network on Karakoram Highway from Gilgit in Pakistan to Xinjinag province of China. In 2006, Islamabad and Beijing signed agreement to build a road from Kashgar in China to Abbottabad in Pakistan. The two countries took the decision of constructing an alternative land route in consideration that Karakoram Highway might be risky for bigger containers. Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari visited China in July 2010. During his talks with Chinese President Hu Jintao, a decision was taken to set up 3,000 km railway line from Kashgar to Gwadar.
Security experts believe China will use this port equally both for civil and military purposes. Chinese ships will not anchor at the port only, but its submarines use the same as a base. In a recent report by New Delhi-based Institute of Defense Studies and Analysis said this port is a threat to India. Gwadar Port is very close to Hormuz strata. During any adverse situation, Pakistan might impose restriction on this route. However, Beijing will be able to conduct a complete surveillance on Indo-US naval maneuverings in the Arab Sea and Persian Gulf.
Pressure From Western Countries
Both the United States and India are worried over this strategic and military cooperation between Pakistan and China. Many people think the conflict between the CIA and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is rooted in the relations between China and Pakistan. It seems that the US has toned down to Pakistan as Islamabad successfully played the China card in face of relentless pressure from the Western countries.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made a surprised visit to Pakistan along with Admiral Mike Mullen, then chairman of the Joint US Chief of Staff. Hillary announced that the United States will continue its cooperation and the war on terror with Pakistan. So long the United States has been alleging that Bin Laden had been hiding inside Pakistan with helps from Pakistani intelligence officials. But during her visit to Islamabad, Hillary said she did not believe top Pakistani official knew about the hiding of Bin Laden in that country.
The US security adviser has already announced that Washington's assistance to Pakistan will not be stopped. The US concern has started unfolding at a time when Pakistan is set to go under the total influence of China.
Despite conducting drone attacks inside Pakistan to eliminate the Taliban militants, the United States has been holding talks with the Taliban at the mediation of Turkey. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) officials have already held meeting with mid ranking Taliban leaders. Recently, former NATO official and former foreign minister of Turkey Hiqmat Setin said that Turkey was going to hold high level talks with the Taliban soon.
It is being observed that the United States contact with the Taliban still exists. However, Pakistan has been made the target of the Taliban. Questions have now been raised from inside Pakistan about the motive behind the recent attack on Pakistani naval base in Karachi and destruction of two naval surveillance aircraft. Whether any special message is being given by this type of attack. It has become clear from the nature of the attack that the target of the raid was to hit the military strength of Pakistan. A section of the mass media in Pakistan has alleged that those who have been conducting this type of attack in Pakistan in the name of the Taliban have special links with the US and Indian intelligence agency.
Pakistan's Military Cooperation with China
However, India has already expressed concern over Pakistan's military cooperation with China. Following the claim of killing Bin Laden at Abbottabad by the US force, a hint was given from New Delhi that India might conduct similar attack on Pakistan. The reaction shown by Pakistan in response to that desire of New Delhi is another cause of concern for India. Pakistan made it clear that if India dared to conduct such raids Islamabad will limited scale nuclear weapon or tactical nuclear arms. It was not so long known that Pakistan has such sophisticate nuclear arsenals.
At the same time, India plunged into another diplomatic difficulty. India handed over a list of 50 terrorists residing in Pakistan to Islamabad authorities and demanded their extradition for trials. The following day reports were published in the Indian newspapers that two of the listed terrorists detained in Indian prisons. Indian wanted to mount pressure on Pakistan in line with the United States, but they himself got entangled in trouble. And as a result, the image of India was tarnished.
After the killing of Bin Laden, the competition launch between the United States and China for expanding influence centering Pakistan gives a signal of a new strategic equation of the Asian superpowers. Iran has also joined the race. Iran has already expressed its solidarity with the integrity of Pakistan. It is being thought that Pakistani military officials have been maintaining contacts with Iran.
Importance of Islamabad
Except China, Pakistan has taken initiative of enhancing cooperation with Russia. President Asif Ali Zardari had already visited Russia. He was given a rousing reception in Moscow. The new relations of China and Russia with Iran and Pakistan could turnout to be a big concern for the United States in future. This will make the position of US-led NATO force in Afghanistan weak, and also deal a blow to the US initiatives of establishing control over the energy resources in Central Asia. In addition, Russia, China is also enhancing its influence in the Central Asia. A cooperative relation between China and Pakistan will help Beijing to make another step forward in expanding its influence in this region. Because of road communication with Central Asia and port facilities, the importance of Pakistan has increased. Despite multifaceted pressure from United States and acts of sabotage inside the country, Pakistan is playing the cards of its good relations with China and Russia because of its geostrategic position. And this is the main weapon of Pakistan. Because of this it is very easy to criticize Pakistan, but difficult to avoid.

Manmohan-Obama Meeting: Efforts To Accelerate Bilateral Ties

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh met US President Barack Obama in Bali (Indonesia). The Indian prime minister said that India had gone "some way" to allay the concerns of US firms by notifying rules for nuclear business and any specific grievance would be addressed within the "four corners" of Indian laws.
The issue came up during the over one-hour meeting between Singh and Obama here against the backdrop of apprehensions among US firms that Indian liability laws were not supplier friendly.
"I explained to him (Obama) that we have a law in place. Rules have been formulated. These rules will lie before our Parliament for 30 days. Therefore, we have gone some way to respond to the concerns of US companies and within the four corners of the law of the land we are willing to address any specific grievances," Singh told reporters after his meeting with Obama.
The rules, which were notified on Wednesday, make it clear among other things that there would be no unlimited or unending liability on part of the suppliers.
Obama, a day after India signaled it was willing to meet US and other potential nuclear supplier groups halfway by limiting the suppliers’ liability to a shorter period.
US-India-Australia Trilateral Relationship

Obama, in his opening remarks, with a visibly pleased Singh standing by his side, pointedly said the US would focus on how Washington and Delhi could work together “not only on bilateral issues but also in multilateral fora like the East Asia Summit, which we believe can be the premier arena for us to work together on a wide range of issues such as maritime security or non-proliferation, as well as expand the kind of cooperation on disaster relief and humanitarian aid that’s so important.”His remarks mark the culmination of a series of carefully calibrated statements that have pegged India and Australia as part of an emerging “robust, principled US-India-Australia trilateral relationship” in the Asia-Pacific, where the US has shown renewed interest.The prime minister publicly indicated the liability bill was on the agenda, and said as much to the media after the talks with Obama. “I explained to him we have a law in place and rules have been formulated... These will lie in Parliament for 30 days. We have gone some way to respond to concerns of American companies and within the four corners of the law of the land, we are willing to address any specific grievances.”
The prime minister said he had also told Obama that India was ready to ratify the Convention on Supplementary Compensation (CSC), another issue that the US wants to be done as part of implementation of the civil nuclear deal. "That's where the matter stands," he said.
Sources said the issue came up during the course of review of implementation of decisions taken by the two sides. They claimed that Obama did not respond and merely "noted" the prime minister's statement.
Civil Liability for Nuclear Damages Act
Under the Rules of Civil Liability for Nuclear Damages Act, foreign suppliers of nuclear material to Indian nuclear power plants would not be held liable for accidents caused by defective or faulty equipment supplied by them if the accident takes place after a guarantee period specified by them.
During the meeting, the first since Obama visited India last November, the two leaders also talked about strengthening the bonds of strategic ties put in place during the historic visit.
The two leaders also discussed issues related to the region as well as Singh's recent meeting with Pakistan Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani in Maldives and steps being taken to improve bilateral ties.
In the context of regional situation, the Prime Minister and Obama discussed Afghanistan. He apprised the US President about President Hamid Karzai's visit to India and the Strategic Partnership Agreement signed between the two countries.
Issues related to Iran's nuclear program were also discussed in the backdrop of damning report of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director general, with the Prime Minister saying the issue should be dealt with diplomatically.

Manmohan-Gilani Summit: Opening New Chapter in Bilateral Ties

India and Pakistan have talked about writing 'a new chapter' in their accident-prone ties, with Islamabad assuring New Delhi that the terrorists behind the Mumbai carnage, that virtually froze relations between the neighbors, will be brought to justice soon.
In a sign of the new spirit of mutual accommodation, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Pakistani counterpart Yousuf Raza Gilani agreed to open a new chapter in ties and hoped the next round of talks will be 'more productive and constructive'.
Meeting on the sidelines of the 17th South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit in Addu (the Maldives), the two leaders held delegation-level talks for around half an hour in a seaside beach cottage at the idyllic Shangri La resort hotel and followed it up with nearly 45 minutes of one-on-one talks.
In addition to resolving to candidly discuss all outstanding issues, ranging from Jammu & Kashmir to Sir Creek, the Prime Ministers focused on terrorism and trade. The two leaders agreed that the measures to facilitate trade and travel across the Line of Control, decided upon by the Foreign Ministers in their July meeting, should be implemented expeditiously. Both Prime Ministers urged a greater degree of openness in discussing all issues of discord during the next round of line Ministry-level talks.
Terrorism Menace
With relations having languished since the cataclysmic 26/11 terror attacks nearly three years ago, the two sided agreed to push a host of initiatives, including the revival of the joint commission, a preferential trade agreement and liberal visa regime.
The Indian prime minister conveyed to his Pakistani counterpart that both countries have an obligation to ensure that terrorism does not spoil relations between them and pressed for justice for 26/11 victims.
Terrorism is a perennial concern. We have an obligation to ensure that it does not spoil relations between the two countries," Manmohan conveyed to Gilani during talks.
Singh told Gilani that "it is imperative to bring the perpetrators of 26/11 attacks to justice." The two leaders agreed that terrorism posed the most serious threat to peace and stability in the region."
Foreign Ministers’ Meeting
External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna and Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar discussed trade and terrorism issues with a view to broadening the two countries’ engagement.
The two ministers informally indicated to the media that the atmosphere was positive. Krishna is learnt to have stressed the need for Pakistan to deal effectively with those responsible for mounting the 26/11 attacks on Mumbai, and not allow its soil to be used by terrorists targeting India.

MFN Status
India announced a trade-related confidence-building measure to match Pakistan according the Most Favored Nation (MFN) status to India. Ms Khar indicated Pakistan would soon finalize its decision to offer India the “MFN” trading status as a means to widen the engagement process.
Earlier on 2 November, Pakistan decided to grant MFN status to India, 15 years after New Delhi accorded it the same level of treatment.
MFN is a level of treatment accorded by countries interested in increasing trade with each other. Countries achieving MFN are given trade advantages such as reduced tariffs on imported goods. Special consideration is given to countries classified as "developing" by the World Trade Organization (WTO), which also enforces the status.
Pakistan has already bestowed MFN status on over 100 countries, including its all-weather friend China, but had been hesitant to do so in the case of India because of the fear that Indian exporters may flood Pakistani markets with their merchandise once normal trade is allowed.
Formal trade between India and Pakistan averages $ 2.5 billion annually, it is the informal route through the trading centers of Singapore and Dubai that is bigger and is estimated to be around $ 3.5 billion. Now Pakistan has granted India MFN status, formal trade may shoot up to $ 6 billion. Pakistan’s Planning Commission estimates that trade will to grow to $ 10 billion soon once MFN status is given to India. Freeing up many trading items could see the two countries making value additions to each other products.
Preferential Trade Agreement
India has decided to move toward a Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) with Pakistan as both sides agreed to put in place a liberalized visa regime soon.
The decision to move towards a Preferential Trade Agreement with Pakistan under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) that will lead to zero customs duty on all traded goods by 2016 came during Singh-Gilani meeting. The two leaders also agreed that bilateral trade will be conducted on Most Favored Nation basis.Both leaders decided to put in place a liberalized visa regime that is being negotiated at the earliest and revive the Indo-Pak Joint Commission that has not been in operation since 2005. The SAFTA is an agreement reached in the 2004 SAARC summit in Islamabad which created a free trade area of 1.8 billion people in Bangladesh, India, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

India-Pakistan Talks

Pakistani Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir and his Indian counterpart Nirupama Rao stood together in Islamabad at the end of their two-day talks on 24 June to announce that they had ‘very productive and constructive engagement’ for the resolution of outstanding issues through peaceful, sustained and serious bilateral dialogue.
The joint statement issued by the two foreign secretaries following their talks could be seen as a sign of the positive outcome of the talks as both sides used to issue a brief statement at the conclusion of the past bilateral talks. But this time the two sides not only issued a detailed joint statement but also replied to questions in a rare show of understanding.
Composite Dialogue
India had suspended the composite dialogue with Pakistan in the wake of the Mumbai attacks by blaming the Pakistan-based group Lashker-e-Taiba (LeT) as a culprit behind the attacks. Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and his Indian counterpart Manmohan Singh, who had met on the sidelines of a regional summit in Bhutan in April 2010, had agreed to revive the official talks and had assigned the foreign secretaries to explore ways to bridge the trust deficit.
India had earlier regularly rebuffed Pakistani calls to resume a substantive dialogue, saying Islamabad has not done enough to tackle militants or bring the Mumbai attack organizers to justice. Pakistan admitted that the attacks were partly planned on its soil, but it denied any official involvement and has arrested several suspects including a leader of the LeT operations chief Zaki-ur-Rahman Lakhvi.
The Pakistani and Indian foreign secretaries originally planned to hold separate press briefings after the talks, but they changed the schedule at the last minute by holding a joint press conference as both sides felt satisfied over the talk results and a need to share something with the media.
Peace and Security Issue
During the talks, India and Pakistan discussed peace and security, including confidence building measures, the Kashmir dispute and promotion of friendly exchanges. Both sides agreed on the resolution of outstanding issues through peaceful, sustained and serious bilateral dialogue. The shadow of the gun and the violence it has unleashed has caused untold sufferings for our people in these years past. This needs to end. The ideology of military conflict should have no place in the paradigm of our relationship in the 21st Century,’ the Indian Secretary for External Affairs Nirupama Rao told reporters, throwing the ball in the Pakistani court to come up with a similar approach.
Rao said: ‘Indeed, this relationship should be characterized by the vocabulary of peace; on ground cooperation in the interest of our peoples, growing trade and economic interaction as well as people to people contacts, and on this let me emphasize, in an atmosphere free of terror and violence.’
Ahead of the talks, India had asked for discussion on terrorism and the Mumbai trial in the Islamabad's talks and the Pakistani side was positive to address to the issues although it was not the subject for the talks of the foreign secretaries. Sources close to the talks said the Indian side raised the Mumbai trial in Pakistan, the alleged training camps of the Kashmiri militants and infiltration into the Indian-controlled Kashmir.
On terrorism, Pakistani Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir said the issue of terrorism requires objectivity; requires to be addressed in a collaborative approach. ‘Terrorism poses a threat to the two countries and to civilized societies. It must be eliminated,’ Bashir said at the joint press conference and added that terrorism and other related issues were discussed.
Confidence Building Measures
The foreign secretaries of the two countries will meet again in New Delhi on a date to be decided through diplomatic channels to prepare for the meeting of the foreign ministers of the two sides in New Delhi in July 2011. More meetings are planned ahead of the foreign ministers' talks. Both Foreign Secretaries agreed to convene a meeting of the Working Group on Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) on the Cross Line of Control (LoC), which divides the two countries in the disputed Kashmir region. The Group will recommend measures for strengthening and streamlining the existing trade and travel arrangements across the LoC and propose modalities for introducing additional Cross-LoC CBMs.
The two countries also agreed to the need for promoting friendly exchanges between the two countries. Both sides made progress towards finalization of the Visa Agreement which will help liberalize the visa regime and facilitate people-to-people, business-to-business and sports contacts. The two sides also discussed measures for promoting cooperation in various fields including facilitating visits to religious shrines, media exchanges, holding of sports tournaments and cessation of hostile propaganda against each other.
International Community’s Role
Keeping in view the fruitful foreign secretary talks to bridge the trust gap, the foreign ministers would be in a good position to make some announcements to bring the two nuclear-armed rivals closer and to achieve the goal of peace, security and development in the South Asian region.
The international community, especially regional countries, also encourage the arch-rival Pakistan and India to end their conflict and find out solution through negotiation. It is now widely believed that the situation in Pakistan has encouraged policymakers to act to counter the threat of terrorism which has already claimed lives of 35,000 people including 5,000 security personnel since 2001. Pakistan has also suffered a loss of nearly $60 billion in the same mentioned period and it is a best opportunity for Pakistan to positively respond to the Indian quest for end to armed conflict.

US Must Shift Policy on Pakistan for Peace in South Asia

Great significance is being attached, at the international level, to the meeting between Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and US President Barack Obama in Washington. The two countries have resolved to fortify bilateral relations. Obama said that the United States would try its utmost to end tension between the countries so that they should work in tandem with each other to meet the challenge of nuclear weapons facing the world.

Obama called for a world summit in Washington with the aim to prevent terrorists from threatening the world in any way through their access to nuclear weapons. Earlier, he termed nuclear terror as the biggest single threat to the world community. Addressing from the White House, he warned that absolutely horrifying consequences would emerge if any such nuclear weapons explodes in any country of the world.

Positive Outcome Expected
The Indian prime minister and the Indian delegation are optimistic about some positive outcome. He urged Obama to ensure that appropriate action is taken by Pakistan against the conspirators of the Mumbai terrorist attack. Obama then asked Pakistan to rein in the terrorist organization, the Lashkar-e-Taiyiba. A few hours after his meeting with Singh, the US president held a meeting with Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and asked Pakistan in no uncertain terms to take stern action against the perpetrators of the Mumbai attack.

Now, what Pakistan actually does cannot be said. For the time being Pakistan has assured the United States that it will take action against the accused. Hence, positive outcome is likely to emerge as a consequence of the Nuclear Security Summit, provided Pakistan does not bow before the Taliban pressure.

Regarding nuclear security, Obama expressed the hope that the Indian Parliament would adopt the controversial nuclear bill shortly. Earlier the bill could not be tabled in Parliament. It can, therefore, be commented that India will go ahead with its endeavors at the international level so that nuclear weapons do not find their way to terrorists' hands in any way.

Elimination of Terrorism
It is pertinent to recall that during the Second World War, the United States dropped nuclear bombs on two Japanese cities, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, leaving millions of people dead instantly and millions of others were afflicted with fatal diseases. Now, the future of South Asia would depend on how the menace of terrorism is eliminated completely.

Singh took strong exception to the supply of military equipment and war weapons to Pakistan. In response to his protest, Obama said that the United States was fully aware of Indian apprehensions, and Indian concerns will be kept in view appropriately. Obama has favored the need to lessen the tension between India and Pakistan and the United States also will strive to play it out in this connection. He endorsed the Indian demand for extradition of Lashkar-e-Taiyiba operative David Headley to India for interrogation.

The Indian prime minister said in no uncertain terms that infiltration from Pakistani side was being stepped up constantly, which was a challenge to India. The actual truth is that the United States needs to bring about a shift in its policy on Pakistan, failing which it would be difficult to maintain peace in this region.

Home Minister's Warning May Deter Pakistan From Attacking India

Indian Home Minister P. Chidambaram in his latest statement warned that if a fresh Mumbai-like terrorist attack is launched again India will take an instant retaliatory action. He said: "Pakistan is a trouble-shooter neighboring country of India. It should mend itself as a responsible neighbor."

It is a bold statement that the way terrorist attacks are being carried out against India it would be an ideal situation to give a befitting reply to Pakistan-based terrorist and their handlers, yet nothing has been done like that so far.

Resolving Kashmir Issue
Even a cursory look at the Indian history would show that India never invaded any country. On the contrary, it became the victim of invaders. On its very creation, Pakistan picked up trouble with India and captured one-third territory of Kashmir in 1947.

In 1965, when Pakistan attacked India, our forces marched forward right up to Lahore by crushing it heavily, but under the Tashkent Agreement reached through the Russian mediation, India withdrew from the Pakistani territory captured by it. Lal Bahadur Shastri died after signing the agreement.

In 1971, Pakistan made yet another invasion of India where 90,000 Pakistani soldiers were made war prisoners in Bangladesh and India captured certain parts of the Pakistan territory. But under the Simla Agreement, Indira Gandhi in response to the entreaties made by Bhutto released war prisoners and also returned the Pakistani territory. Likewise, Pakistan carried out an attack on Kargil treacherously. Pakistan was inflicted upon a crushing defeat in the Kargil war. As consequences, the US endeavors a cease-fire was enforced there and a safe passage was given to trapped invaders to retreat from there.

Since 1980, proxy war is being fought by Pakistan against India in the form of terrorism and it has been causing huge harm to Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir, and other parts of the country. But India has never launched attacks on terrorists and their sponsors in Pakistan.

When terrorists carried out strikes on the Jammu and Kashmir legislative assembly and the Parliament building in Delhi, the patience of the whole country was absolutely exhausted. The then Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee declared a "do or die" war with Pakistan and deployed Indian troops along the border with Pakistan, but failed to carry out an invasion.

A determined prime minister like Vajpayee who carried out the second nuclear test at Pokharan had the potential to launch an attack, but he did not do so. Gradually, he also agreed to hold talks with Pakistan and the Indian forces returned to the barracks.

In September 2008, when Pakistani terrorists triggered explosions under the very nose of the Indian Government, only then the government awoke out of its slumber to some extent. But, Pakistani militants attacked Mumbai on 26 November 2008. It took three days for the Indian security squads and commandos to tackle them and a Pakistani terrorist, Ajmal Kasab, was arrested.

Dismantling Militant Training Camps
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and other leaders asked the Pakistani Government to dismantle militant training camps on the Pakistan soil and hand over the conspirators to India or prosecute them within Pakistan. The government went to the extend of saying that unless and until Pakistan demolish terrorist training camps and hand over the accused to India talks will not be held with Pakistan.

However, even after remaining in the denial mode for quite some time, Manmohan Singh held talks, first with Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari at Yekaterinburg in Russia and later at Sharm al-Shaykh (Egypt) with Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani. In the wake of these talks, India returned with the cancer of Balochistan.

The state of affairs now is that whenever the Taliban or some other terrorist groups trigger an explosion or a violent incident, Pakistani ministers and other authorities stand harping on the allegation of the Indian hand behind it or the Balochistan unrest. Notwithstanding all this, Manmohan Singh maintains "resolution of bilateral issues between the countries is possible only through talks."

Focusing Internal Security
Ever since Chidambaram assumed the charge of the Home Affairs Ministry he has been focusing on the internal security and enhanced the strength of the police and security forces and also provided modern arms to them. He has taken effective steps against militants.

The question is: What is the prime minister's opinion on his latest statement? Will he allow him to go ahead to translate his statement into action? If Chidambaram actually implements his warning, Pakistan will never muster up the courage to launch terrorist attack on India.

Home Minister's Warning May Deter Pakistan From Attacking India

Indian Home Minister P. Chidambaram in his latest statement warned that if a fresh Mumbai-like terrorist attack is launched again India will take an instant retaliatory action. He said: "Pakistan is a trouble-shooter neighboring country of India. It should mend itself as a responsible neighbor."

It is a bold statement that the way terrorist attacks are being carried out against India it would be an ideal situation to give a befitting reply to Pakistan-based terrorist and their handlers, yet nothing has been done like that so far.

Resolving Kashmir Issue
Even a cursory look at the Indian history would show that India never invaded any country. On the contrary, it became the victim of invaders. On its very creation, Pakistan picked up trouble with India and captured one-third territory of Kashmir in 1947.

In 1965, when Pakistan attacked India, our forces marched forward right up to Lahore by crushing it heavily, but under the Tashkent Agreement reached through the Russian mediation, India withdrew from the Pakistani territory captured by it. Lal Bahadur Shastri died after signing the agreement.

In 1971, Pakistan made yet another invasion of India where 90,000 Pakistani soldiers were made war prisoners in Bangladesh and India captured certain parts of the Pakistan territory. But under the Simla Agreement, Indira Gandhi in response to the entreaties made by Bhutto released war prisoners and also returned the Pakistani territory. Likewise, Pakistan carried out an attack on Kargil treacherously. Pakistan was inflicted upon a crushing defeat in the Kargil war. As consequences, the US endeavors a cease-fire was enforced there and a safe passage was given to trapped invaders to retreat from there.

Since 1980, proxy war is being fought by Pakistan against India in the form of terrorism and it has been causing huge harm to Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir, and other parts of the country. But India has never launched attacks on terrorists and their sponsors in Pakistan.

When terrorists carried out strikes on the Jammu and Kashmir legislative assembly and the Parliament building in Delhi, the patience of the whole country was absolutely exhausted. The then Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee declared a "do or die" war with Pakistan and deployed Indian troops along the border with Pakistan, but failed to carry out an invasion.

A determined prime minister like Vajpayee who carried out the second nuclear test at Pokharan had the potential to launch an attack, but he did not do so. Gradually, he also agreed to hold talks with Pakistan and the Indian forces returned to the barracks.

In September 2008, when Pakistani terrorists triggered explosions under the very nose of the Indian Government, only then the government awoke out of its slumber to some extent. But, Pakistani militants attacked Mumbai on 26 November 2008. It took three days for the Indian security squads and commandos to tackle them and a Pakistani terrorist, Ajmal Kasab, was arrested.

Dismantling Militant Training Camps
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and other leaders asked the Pakistani Government to dismantle militant training camps on the Pakistan soil and hand over the conspirators to India or prosecute them within Pakistan. The government went to the extend of saying that unless and until Pakistan demolish terrorist training camps and hand over the accused to India talks will not be held with Pakistan.

However, even after remaining in the denial mode for quite some time, Manmohan Singh held talks, first with Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari at Yekaterinburg in Russia and later at Sharm al-Shaykh (Egypt) with Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani. In the wake of these talks, India returned with the cancer of Baluchistan.

The state of affairs now is that whenever the Taliban or some other terrorist groups trigger an explosion or a violent incident, Pakistani ministers and other authorities stand harping on the allegation of the Indian hand behind it or the Baluchistan unrest. Notwithstanding all this, Manmohan Singh maintains "resolution of bilateral issues between the countries is possible only through talks."

Focusing Internal Security
Ever since Chidambaram assumed the charge of the Home Affairs Ministry he has been focusing on the internal security and enhanced the strength of the police and security forces and also provided modern arms to them. He has taken effective steps against militants.

The question is: What is the prime minister's opinion on his latest statement? Will he allow him to go ahead to translate his statement into action? If Chidambaram actually implements his warning, Pakistan will never muster up the courage to launch terrorist attack on India.

Is Regional Scenario Changing?

Iran has said China would soon join Iran gas pipeline project. It must be clear that Iran, Pakistan and India were in this gas pipeline agreement earlier. However, the changing regional scenario and in the wake of Indian North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) type ties with the United States, India has apparently separated itself from this agreement.
The US rulers pressed upon Pakistan to suspend this agreement and statement regarding US displeasure continued coming into the newspapers. However, Pakistan demonstrated perseverance regarding this agreement. Now the Iranian disclosure of the Chinese inclusion in this project is highly significant in the current circumstances of US clout. Another issue of Iranian Government facing from Pakistan is that the organization Jundullah active against Iranian interests in Iranian Baluchistan allegedly operates from Pakistan.

Operatives of Jundullah
Iranian officials are of the position that either Pakistan should take action against Jundullah or Pakistan and Iran should take joint actions against it. It is a general perception that the US agency CIA is supporting and backing up Jundullah. Now the latest information is that Pakistan has apprehended some key operatives of Jundullah and handed them over to Iran.
Iranian Ambassador in Pakistan has met Pakistani National Assembly Speaker Fahmida Mirza in this regard and appreciated this Pakistani move. It is pertinent to mention here that Iran is the neighboring country that took initiative in recognizing newly state of Pakistan and good brotherly ties between both countries have always been important for both countries.
It is correct that due to Iranian anti-imperial policy after Imam Khomeini and particularly due to Pak-US ties, warmness between conventional friendly ties did not remain like before. Iran has already invited Pakistan repeatedly to join anti-US block in the region. However, Pakistan has its own strategy and this is that reason that this Iranian strategy could not be matured.

US Invasion of Afghanistan
The US invasion of Afghanistan, then the arrival of NATO forces in Afghanistan and particularly increasing Indian clout over there changed the situation and this created a room for flexibility in Pakistani strategy. Countries of this region have no difference with Pakistan's position over the issue of war on terror.
However, there could be different opinions over US interests. Pakistan and China has always been at good terms. China has always extended meaningful and conclusive cooperation for Pakistan's progress and defense. Perhaps no Pakistani Government can afford to adopt anti-China policy. However, it is not in the power of our ruling elite due to its luxurious life style and vested interests to spoil ties with the west and particularly with the United States.

Balance of Power
The balance of power in the world tilting to only one side is not favorable for the world itself. Moreover, the global capitalist economy is facing the worst crisis. It is quite a miracle that the economy of People's Republic of China is making progress at fast pace. The countries of this region are making efforts to end US clout in this region. The increase in Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in this regard has turned the situation quite explosive.
President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani have welcomed the inclusion of Frigate in Pakistan Navy manufactured by the cooperation of Pakistan and China. Another latest information is that US training of the police in Sihala Training School has been stopped. This picture of alliance between Pakistan, Iran and China is engendering this question, "Is Regional Scenario Changing?"

India, Pakistan To Desist From Provocation in Troubled Time

It is either a misfortune or the uncontrollable emotions of think tanks in India and Pakistan, which have entangled them in a competition of uttering rhetorics. Tension between the two countries has thus increased. The happenings, which have knowingly or unwillingly occurred, are adding to it. Violation of ceasefire on the borders and failure to bid for Pakistan cricketers for the Indian Premier League (IPL) for cricket are among such incidents.
At a time when there is no sign of bitterness in bilateral relations being reduced, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani issued a highly irresponsible statement. He refused to guarantee that there would be no further Mumbai-type terrorist attacks in India. What is surprising is that he said this to the US Defense Secretary Roberts Gates. That the latter gave him a patient hearing is even more surprising. This implies that he did not go to Pakistan in order to bring it on the right track.

Rise in Terrorism
In the midst of this tense atmosphere in the two countries comes the bad news about the terrorist organization Lashkar-e-Taiba conspiring a major attack on the Republic Day (26 January). This causes no sensation because ever since the Mumbai attack, reports about such conspiracies being hatched across the border have been pouring in. This is enough to prove that Pakistan is least interested in controlling the terrorist organizations which are flourishing on its soil and whose sole intention is to continue attaching India. In the midst of news that the Lashkar is planning another major attack on India, Defense Minister A.K. Antony issued a statement confirming that India was ready to face such attacks.
It is difficult to understand the implication of this speech. Why are such inciting statements being made to increase tension when it is quite clear that the Lashkar and other terrorist organizations are trying to push the two countries to a war through their anti India activities?

Creating Internal Security Challenges
The atmosphere caused by these statements is favorable to terrorists. India should at least refrain from issuing statements which will make Pakistan become frenzied. The same gesture can also be expected from Pakistan, but in the present circumstances its leaders are perhaps unwilling to think of their own good. If this had not been true, Pakistan would never have ignored the Lashkar threat looming large before it and described India the foremost enemy. Since Pakistan seems to be disinclined to undergo self-analysis, it has itself become a victim of terror. At the same time, it is creating internal security challenges for India.

India Fails To Spell Out National Action Against Terror Plans

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's statement at the Chief Ministers' Conference that "Pakistani terrorist groups are on the look out for yet another attack on India and we should remain wary of it" has stunned even his supporters who welcomed the joint statement between him and his Pakistani counterpart Yousuf Raza Gilani at Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt. It is tantamount to a virtual "U-turn" from his (Singh)statement at Sharm el-Sheikh. He agreed to de-link the terrorism issue from the India-Pakistan dialogue process during his two-hour talk with Gilani. Then, Singh gave the clarification that Pakistan had assured India that it would not allow the use of its soil for any "anti-India" terrorist activity.

Opposition to PM's Statement
The Congress party leadership opposed Singh's statement. The party leadership was angry over it. Finally, the Prime Minister had to say in the Lok Sabha [Lower house of Parliament] that no shift has taken place in the firm Indian stand on the India-Pakistan talks.

Unless and until Pakistan punishes the perpetrators of the 26 November Mumbai attacks and dismantles the terror infrastructure within its country, talks cannot be held with it.

Lapless At Indo-Pak Talks
It would have been better if the Prime Minister simply observed the formality of mere handshaking and put off the talks at Sharm el-Sheikh just like Atal Behari Vajpayee had done with Musharraf in Kathmandu." The prime minister's talks with Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari tended to soften the Indian stand.

The other lapse that took place was that during the talks with Gilani at Sharm el-Sheikh, Singh relented to such a large extent that he failed to keep in view the diplomacy that Pakistan, under great Indian pressure, was anxious to prove itself innocent. After believing the assurances given by Gilani, Singh returned to the country. But Pakistan persisted with its mischief.

Indian Army Chief's Views
Indian Army Chief General Deepak Kapoor also stated recently that prior to the start of the winter season infiltration attempts by militants have surged. The Pakistani military in these attempts cannot be ruled out. Pakistan does not favor that peace should prevail in Jammu and Kashmir for a long time and hence a spurt has taken place in the infiltration from across the border. Defense Minister A.K. Antony also said that a large number of terrorist training camps were being run in the Pakistani territory. Moreover, incidents of infiltration and pushing arms into Jammu and Kashmir registered a substantial rise during the past four days. This is amply evident from the incidents given below.

August 15: The Border Security Force [BSF] arrested four Pakistanis making a bid to infiltrate near the Tapu checkpoint of Khemkaran and recovered from them four pistols, arms and ammunition, night vision devices, and two kg heroin.

August 16: The security forces foiled the attempts made by militants to cross the Line of Control by cutting the barbed fencing in the "Chakhan da Bagh" area of the Ranigarh section of Poonch.

August 16: In an encounter between the police and the Lashkar-e Taiyiba in the Pulwama sector, one terrorist, John Muhammad, was killed.

August 17: In the Rajouri sector, security forces killed self-styled Hizbul Mujahidin commander Altaf Husayn. It also recovered 20 kg RDX in the Gambhir Mughal forests.

August 17: In the Sir Creek sector of Katch, the BSF arrested nine Pakistani infiltrators near the Akri Moti power plant.

August 18: In the Poonch sector, security forces seized 10 grenades, one carbine, and four pistols.

There are also news reports that the Lashkar-e-Taiyiba is once again trying to start a November 26 type attack from Jafarabad. The Pakistani Government is not taking any action against the main conspirator of the Mumbai attacks, Hafiz Sayeed yet.

Congress Dissatisfaction
The truth is the Congress party was not satisfied with the joint statement at Sharm el-Sheikh. Non-incorporation of Kashmir in the joint statement was being put up as India's achievement. But, harping on the Kashmir issue, Pakistan has started saying that Kashmir is such an issue without which resolution mutual differences of the two nations cannot be sorted out. In such a state of affairs the prime minister, in order to satisfy his partymen, had to mention at the chief minister's meet the possibility of a fresh Pakistani terrorist attack on India.

We reiterate that though the prime minister has made the point of a fresh Pakistani terrorist attack, he has not stated what action India will take in reply. There is also the need to think that fake currency notes, drugs, arms, etc. are often seized in train and bus services between the countries. It should be seen whether due to these services the country is being caused more damage than gain.