Raja Pervez Ashraf Becomes New Pakistani Prime Minister: Political Instability in Country Continues

Water and Power Minister Raja Parvez Ashraf has taken over as the new Pakistani prime minister. Filled with little difficulty with the country’s National Assembly (parliament) electing Ashraf as a replacement for Yousuf Raza Gilani, disqualified by the Supreme Court.

The 61-year-old loyalist of the Bhutto family was pitchforked into the hot seat after the original choice Makhdoom Shahabuddin faced an arrest warrant. But the new leader himself is dogged by corruption charges relating to his tenure as power minister.

The 342-member National Assembly chose Ashraf as the country's 25th prime minister with 211 votes, against Opposition PML-N nominee Sardar Mehtab Ahmed Khan Abbasi who got 89 votes.

Undoubtedly, Ashraf is lucky to have been elevated to the highest executive post, as the first choice of President Asif Ali Zardari, Makhdoom Shahabuddin, missed the bus because of an arrest warrant issued against him by a Sindh court in an ephedrine scam case.

Since the issue was contempt of the highest court in the land the verdict was not unexpected, though the scale of punishment is. While all Supreme Court verdicts must always be honored even if they do not appear to be sound, it may not be possible to avoid a prolonged discussion on the present judgment. There are quite a few issues that will need to be clarified.

To his admirers, Pakistan's Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry is a hero whose relentless pursuit of a money-laundering case against the president is teaching a generation of the country's leaders a long-overdue lesson in respect for the law.

To his critics, he is a runaway judge in the grip of a messiah complex whose turbo-charged brand of activism threatens to upend the power balance underpinning Pakistan's precarious embrace of democracy.

Recently, Chaudhry made his boldest move yet by disqualifying Prime Minister Gilani as punishment for his repeated refusal to obey court orders to re-activate a corruption case against President Zardari.

Gilani's downfall marked a watershed in a long-running showdown between the judiciary and the government that has laid bare the institutional tensions plaguing a country that has test fired ballistic nuclear missiles, but has yet to agree on how it should be run.

"In practical terms, democracy is finished because the balance of power between the parliament, the executive and the judiciary has been ruined," said a senior member of Zardari's ruling Pakistan People's Party (PPP).

Judicial Coup

The military, which has ruled Pakistan for about half of its 65 years as an independent nation, has also not hidden its disdain of the Zardari government, but has made it clear it does not wish to seize power. And it has its own problems with Chaudhry's activism.

The present crisis has its roots in Gilani’s refusal to follow the Supreme Court’s 2009 order to request Swiss authorities to reopen cases of graft against President Zardari. On his part, Gilani has pointed out that the President enjoyed immunity from such charges. But the apex court had disagreed — having only recently overturned a 2007 presidential amnesty to politicians accused of corruption, from which Zardari and his late wife Benazir Bhutto benefited the most. Since then, an epic battle has ensued, with both institutions attempting to protect their own turf. Ultimately, in January the Supreme Court ordered legal proceedings against Gilani, and in April, the then Prime Minister was convicted for contempt of court. At the time, he was given only a token sentence with the apex court leaving it to the Speaker of the National Assembly to decide if Gilani could continue as prime minister.

The drama has been spiced by allegations of bribe-taking brought against Chaudhry's son by a billionaire property developer, who has himself been accused of land-grabbing and fraud. The controversy briefly put the stern-faced judge on the defensive before he regained the initiative by disqualifying Gilani.

The next chapter in the saga started when the Supreme Court holds its latest hearing in more than two years of legal wrangling aimed at forcing the government to re-open proceedings against Zardari.

Pakistan's political class is now transfixed by the question of whether Chaudhry will opt to pause in the wake of his victory over Gilani, or press home his advantage by demanding that Raja Pervez Ashraf, the new prime minister, reactivate the case.

Charges Against Gilani

Earlier on June 19, the Pakistani Supreme Court declared that Gilani stood disqualified as the prime minister since April 26, 2012 and ceased to be the premier since that date. The court punished with 30-second imprisonment. It also asked President Zardari to take steps for continuity of the democratic process, an apparent reference to the election of a new prime minister. Gilani was elected Prime Minister in March 2008 and has remained in that office longer than any other elected leader in the country’s history.

Capping approximately 30 months of bitter feud between the judiciary and the government, a three-judge bench headed by Chief Justice Chaudhry held that Gilani, “ceased” to be the prime minister from April 26, 2012.

Gilani was then convicted and sentenced for not obeying court orders to reopen graft charges in Switzerland against President Zardari.

Contrary to expectations that the PPP will back him to the hilt, the ruling party said it would abide by the verdict and set in motion the process of selecting Gilani’s successor.

The Election Commission also issued a formal notice disqualifying Gilani as a Member of Parliament, hours after the Supreme Court ordered it to do so. A session of the National Assembly or lower house of Parliament is likely to be convened for the formal election of the new prime minister.

The present verdict came in response to several petitions that had challenged National Assembly Speaker Fehmida Mirza’s decision not to disqualify Gilani following his conviction.

However, the timing of the judgment is definitely suspect as it comes only days after a business tycoon accused the Chief Justice’s son of accepting millions in bribes to swing cases. Also, the legal validity of the judgment has come under a cloud. References in the judgment, for instance, to two Indian court cases are largely misplaced.

New Cabinet

A total of 27 Federal Ministers and 11 Ministers of state were given portfolios. Hina Rabbani Khar and Naveed Qamar retained their portfolios of foreign and defense, respectively, in the new Cabinet, announced by Prime Minister Ashraf, which has some new faces. Most of the Ministers in Ashraf's Cabinet have been drawn from the previous dispensation of Gilani.

Hina retained the Foreign Ministry while Qamar Zaman Kaira, who had also filed his nomination for prime ministerial contest as a covering candidate, retained the Information Ministry. Qamar was again assigned the Defense Ministry.

Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, whose PML-Q party is a key ally in the Pakistan People's Party-led coalition, was again inducted as a senior minister and given the Defence Production and Industry portfolios.

Farzana Raja, a loyalist of PPP chief and President Asif Ali Zaradri, was among the new faces inducted into the Cabinet. She was given charge of the Benazir Income Support Programme, a scheme to help the poor.

The other members of the Cabinet include Makhdoom Amin Fahim (commerce), Arbab Alamgir Khan (communication), Nazar Muhammad Gondal (capital administration and development), Rana Muhammad Farooq Saeed Khan (climate change), Abdul Hafeez Shaikh (finance), Mir Hazar Khan Bajrani (inter-provincial coordination), Manzoor Wattoo (Kashmir affairs), Farooq Naek (law and justice).

Brief Profile

A strong loyalist of the Bhutto family, Ashraf hails from a family of agriculturists and remained in his occupation until he joined PPP of Rawalpindi in Punjab. Before joining active politics, 61-year-old Ashraf was an agriculturist and businessman by profession. He obtained his undergraduate degree from University of Sindh and did his diploma from UK in Industrial Management.

Ashraf, who was PPP cochairman Zardari’s second choice for the post of premier, became the main candidate after an arrest warrant was issued against party nominee Makhdoom Shahbuddin for alleged irregularities during his tenure as Health Minister.

Interestingly, Ashraf is facing a probe by the National Accountability Bureau for alleged corruption in rental power projects during his tenure as Water and Power Minister.

He was secretary-general of the PPP (Parliamentarians), a party formed in 2002 by the PPP for the purpose of complying with electoral rules governing Pakistani parties. The party contested the 2002 elections while former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was living in self-imposed exile.

Ashraf, who was elected to the National Assembly from Gujar Khan constituency in Rawalpindi district — both in 2002 and 2008 — served twice in the cabinet of Yousuf Raza Gilani, who was disqualified by the Supreme Court.

Ashraf resigned from Gilani’s cabinet in February 2011 after allegations of corruption in power projects. He returned to the cabinet in April 2012 when he was appointed minister for Information Technology. His candidature was backed by PML-Q, a major ally of the PPP with more than 50 seats in the National Assembly.

Tough Time Ahead

The new Pakistani prime minister not only faces corruption cases against him but is also considered an “insensitive” minister. He is accused of being solely responsible for Pakistan’s energy crisis. Instead of trying to find a workable solution to the worsening power supply problem, he has been making promises which he could never fulfill. It is surprising what made Mr Zardari choose him for heading the government as people have been protesting at different places over unending load-shedding, criticizing Ashraf for mishandling the situation.

Moreover, the new prime minister is also likely to face demands for reopening graft cases against Zardari from the Supreme Court.

Ashraf, who belongs to a royal family of Rawalpindi in Punjab, was elected in a two-way contest during a special session of Parliament after three other candidates – Shahabuddin and Qamar Zaman Kaira of the PPP and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman – withdrew from the race.

Zardari, a consummate political survivor, has already sacrificed Gilani in his determination to ensure the money-laundering case, which falls under Swiss jurisdiction and dates back the 1990s, remains closed.

While many Pakistanis are happy to see his unpopular government on the ropes, the pugnacious chief justice is facing a growing backlash from those who fear his court-room victories are being bought at the price of Pakistan's stability.

India will have to watch his moves as he has declared that he will try to do all he can to improve Pakistan’s ties with New Delhi. But will he have time for such moves when he has so much to concentrate on the domestic front.

Vietnamese Political Activities, Hostile Forces

It has become a routine that whenever our Party and state conduct political activities, hostile forces inside and outside of the country immediately distort and slander our Party and state in the media, especially on the internet.
Most recently, on the occasion of the election of deputies to the 13th National Assembly and people's councils at all levels for the 2011-16 term, hostile forces have posted on the internet and broadcast on radio to distort the election procedures and to slander our Party's leadership of the National Assembly. They ask the loaded question 'is the National Assembly of the Party or of the people' and assume that only democracy in Western countries is true democracy and allows true human rights.
Human Rights and Democracy
Scientifically, the concepts of human rights and democracy are common concepts. They are defined in documents of the United Nations, but they only have value when they are adapted and practiced in each country, each with its own model. Differences between human rights and democracy models among countries in the world are inevitable. It comes from history, tradition and culture. The international community acknowledged this in the document 'Vienna Declaration and Program of Action' at the international human rights conference in 1993 in Vienna, Austria.
At the present time there are more than 190 countries in the world, with many different political systems and national institutions, but no country calls them undemocratic and no one has the right to call them dictatorial or militaristic. In each country, following whichever ideology - capitalism or socialism - whichever political system- multiparty or one ruling party, separation of powers or centralization, whichever economic model - liberalism or socialist-oriented market economy -- it falls within the jurisdiction of each nation, and no one has the right to interfere, even the United Nations.
Post-Bourgeois Democratic Revolutions
History shows that after the bourgeois democratic revolutions, for example in Britain in 1689, in America in 1776, and in France in 1789, people to some extent enjoyed the democratic system, civil rights and human rights. In the colonies including our country however, after hundreds of years people still lived under colonial-feudal systems, which, in fact, was modern slavery. No 'mother country' shared the values of democracy and human rights with colonial peoples.
The fact is that democracy and human rights in our country were achieved by the blood and struggle of our people under the direction of the Communist Party of Vietnam and the leadership of President Ho Chi Minh who conducted the August Revolution in 1945.
In fact, throughout nearly a century of revolutionary history from 1930 to now, our Party and President Ho Chi Minh always headed toward the goals of independence for the nation and freedom and happiness for the people.
The leading role of the Communist Party of Vietnam in the state and society comes from a righteous historical, political, and legal background which the people respected and trusted and granted them that role. That role was defined in the constitution, the original law of the nation, by the National Assembly, the most powerful body in the country. This article is compatible with the Charter of the United Nations as well as international conventions on human rights. Article 1 of 'the International Convention on Civil and Political Rights of 1966 stated 'All peoples have the right of self-determination. By virtue of that right they freely determine their political status.' This means that nations have full rights to determine their social system, ideology, political system, constitution, and laws which include the role of the ruling party.
Socioeconomic Programs
The relationship between the Party and the National Assembly is that the leading institutional role of the Communist Party of Vietnam is shown in its comprehensive leadership, guidelines, the organization of the Party, and the roles of officials and Party members. This characteristic is not imposed by the Party, but has been formed by history and has gained the respect of all the people. The leadership of the Party throughout the past 12 National Assembly terms has aimed at the goal of following the words of Uncle Ho which are 'our National Assembly truly presents the interests of people.' In fact, our country's National Assembly is getting better at fulfilling the role of a powerful state body of the people, for the people and by the people. Sessions of the National Assembly are becoming more and more open and democratic, especially the questioning of members of the government. Many socioeconomic programs proposed by the government have been carefully discussed, assessed, adjusted, and even delayed for further study by the National Assembly. In elections, under the leadership of the Party through the Standing Committee of the National Assembly, the ratio of ethnic minority, female, and non-Party members is always taken seriously. For example, in the 11th term, members of ethnic minority groups comprised 7.2 percent.
In the 12th term it had risen to 17.6 percent while the 53 ethnic minority groups in our country account for only 13 percent of our population. Female members comprised 25.8 percent of the 12th National Assembly, while at that time in Thailand female members were 11.7 percent, 23.7 percent in Malaysia, 11.6 percent in Indonesia, 24.8 percent in Singapore, 25.2 percent in Laos, and 19.5 percent in Cambodia.
This evidence is the basis to reject the distorted argument of hostile forces and affirm that our National Assembly is the National Assembly of the Party and the people at the same time. The National Assembly of the Party does not mean ownership like in the economic sense, but rather it is a historical mission and the Party's love for the people and the nation. Therefore, to remain a National Assembly of people, we must ensure the leadership of the Party.
Enhancing Quality of Party Organizations
However, to fulfill its honorable mission forever, to deserve the status of ruling party and the faith of the people, our Party has to continuously renovate and enhance the quality of Party organizations and of each Party's member according to Ho Chi Minh thought 'The Party is morality and civilization.' At the same time, we must continue to improve the leadership mechanisms, and fight against covering others' shortcomings and doing the jobs of others. Now, at grassroots levels, the Party still does the jobs of the government and people's councils. We must surmount this resolutely.

11th Vietnamese National Party Congress To Consider Supplements to 1991 Platform

At the time the 1991 party platform was issued, our party declared 'The platform will be continuously supplemented as new issues arise.' In a recent article, Political Bureau member and National Assembly chairman Nguyen Phu Trong wrote: 'While carrying out the cause of reform and the 1991 party platform, the awareness of the party has grown, and it has developed in many basic and important respects which help to clarify and perfect the path of reform and the construction of the country during the transitional period to socialism.' 'This is also an important base for the coming 11th National Party Congress to consider and determine the supplements to the 1991 platform,' Trong said.

The 7th National Party Congress in June 1991 approved the platform, that is, the '1991 platform,' for the construction of the country during the transition to socialism. The platform, with its strategic orientation and ideological basis, determined the direction for Vietnam's transition to socialism.

Trong, who is also chairman of Party Central Committee Theoretical Council said 'After nearly 20 years of implementing the platform, our country has gained great historically significant achievements that have changed the face and status of the country.'

At the time the 1991 platform was issued, however, our party declared 'At present we do not have the basis on which to picture the shape of the society in the future. Nevertheless we can draw the principles and direction for the period of transition to socialism of our country. The platform will be continuously supplemented as new issues arise,' according to a speech by General Secretary Nguyen Van Linh at the ninth Plenum of the sixth Central Committee in August 1990.

In fact the country and the world have undergone significant changes since the 1991 platform. Many emerging issues were understood and resolved effectively by our party, and the content of the 1991 platform was supplemented, reflecting a deeper understanding.

The platform reflects the current situation, our country's revolutionary period and its lessons, the characteristics of the transitional period, and specifics of socialism in Vietnam, the goals, tasks, and directions for the gradual transition to socialism. It includes the economy, politics, culture, society, national defense and security, foreign affairs, and party and political system development. All these elements, at different levels, help to supplement the platform and develop consciousness.

Summarizing the content and reasoning of the platform, Trong emphasized that 'the transition to socialism is a long, difficult, and complicated course.'

Difficulties and Challenges
Socialism is the target and the ideal. Achieving socialism is inevitable, and the irreversible path of Vietnam's revolution. The 1991 platform said 'Socialism is facing many difficulties and challenges. The world is experiencing uncertain conditions. But mankind will definitely progress to socialism because this is the evolutionary law of history.' But what is socialism and how to progress to socialism? This is what the party always thinks about and studies, how to follow the rules of the world while adjusting them to the specific conditions and characteristics of our country.

In the years of following the path of reform, the party has gradually surmounted simple and immature concerns such as reconciling the ultimate goal of socialism with the tasks of the immediate period, incorrectly equating the market-oriented economy with capitalism, making light of the achievements and values of mankind in the period of development of capitalism, quickly abolishing the private economy, and equating a law-governed state with a capitalist state.

Leadership Factor
'Although some issues require further study, we can generalize that a socialist society is a society with wealthy people, a powerful country, with democracy, justice, and civilization, owned by the people, with a highly-developed economy based on a modern production force and public ownership of the means of production, with a law-governed socialist state of the people, by the people, and for people under the leadership of the communist party,' Trong wrote.

The chairman also affirmed that the concept of the socialist-oriented market economy 'was a creative breakthrough in the reasoning of the Party and is an important theoretical argument after 20 years of carrying out the 1991 platform. It arose from Vietnam's reality and lessons from the experiences of the world.'

The 8th National Party Congress in June 1996 introduced an important new concept of productive economy and socialism: 'Productivity is not opposed to socialism, but it is an achievement of human civilization. It is necessary for the cause of socialist construction, even when socialism is already built.'

However, at that time, we said only that: 'Applying different forms of economy as well as management methods of the market economy are to use its positive side to serve the purpose of building socialism without following the capitalist road. Some aspects of the market-oriented economy are contrary to the nature of socialism. Employing the market economy, we need to overcome and limit as much as possible those negative aspects.'

Starting with the 9th National Party Congress in April 2001, the concept of 'socialist-oriented market economy' was entered officially into the documents of the party, and has been considered to be the economic model for the transitional period to socialism in Vietnam.

Promoting Strength of National Unity
According to Trong, the basis characteristic of the socialist-oriented market economy is uniting economic and social policies, and economic growth goes along with social progress and justice.

The chairman mentioned maintaining a peaceful environment, independence, self-reliance, and integration into the world. He emphasized the task of building a modern people's army and police and improving their fighting strength. He also emphasized democracy, the construction of a socialist law-governed state, and promoting the strength of national unity. Trong affirmed: 'Building socialist democracy and ensuring that the power really belongs to the people are important long-term goals of Vietnam's revolution.'

The policy to build a law-governed socialist state was a new awareness of our party in the 1990's, and was not in the 1991 platform.

A law-governed socialist state is different in nature from a capitalist state in that the laws in a capitalist state are a tool to protect and serve the interest of the capitalist class, while the laws in a socialist state express and carry out the rights of the people and protect the interest of the majority.

After emphasizing the role of the party as team leader of the working class, the people, and the nation, and as the ruling party with a party-building mission, Trong affirmed that our party considers party building to be the key and vital task of the revolutionary movement.

Need of the Hour
This sets out the requirement for the party to evolve, to reform itself, to promote the ideological mission, to train in moral qualities, and to fight against regression, degeneration, and corruption. It must reform and consolidate the party organization and the political system, raise the quality of officials and party members, improve job performance, enhance inspection and supervision, improve and streamline leadership and work practices, maintain a strong link with the people, and rely on the people to build the party. Especially beware of the risk of deviations from policy, degeneration, bureaucracy, and aloofness from the common people.

The chairman concluded that while carrying out the cause of reform and the 1991 party platform, the awareness of the party has grown, and it has developed in many basic and important respects which help to clarify and perfect the path of reform and the construction of the country during the transitional period to socialism. This is the basis for the 11th National Party Congress to consider and determine the supplements to the 1991 platform.

Vietnam Invests in Non-Urgent, Grandiose Projects

Ninety billion US dollars for infrastructure projects in the 'Expanding Hanoi' scheme; and more than 55 billion dollars for the construction of the high speed North -- South railways. This massive amount of capital investment is planned for these grand projects in the next few years, in comparison to Vietnam's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is currently only at approximately $100 billion.

Strong and Aggressive Campaign
There are many other projects and schemes, some very urgent with apparent outcomes, that are in need of capital investment and have yet found a funding source. Some of these projects are the metro system in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City; the North-South high speed road; Long Thanh international airport, and Van Phong international container transshipment port. For some unknown reasons, there seems to be a strong and aggressive campaign from relating departments and industries for those two grand projects to pass. Aiming for this purpose, people are putting forward all kinds of reasoning, such as let's just agree on the urgent necessity of the project first, then other factors such as the project efficiency, implementation and where the funding source come from can be discussed later. While in practice, an investment process should have been the reverse.

It is because whether these grandiose projects are implemented or not, it is not the same as when one buys a bunch of vegetables or a kilogram of fish. It requires a thorough study of the feasibility in terms of economic efficiency, repayment ability as well as the owner of the technology, and above all, affordability is the security of national finance.

Necessary To Prioritize Investments
Every body knows that to implement grand projects such as those mentioned above, foreign debts cannot be considered because of the limited capacity of the current national financial situation. Moreover, current government's debts have almost exceeded the safety threshold, while the budget deficit is still growing strongly. In the circumstances of very limited national finance capacity, everyone understands that it is necessary to prioritize investments for projects that can bring the fastest economic efficiency as well as rapid returns, otherwise the burden of national debts would be too overbearing for future generations.

Considering these criteria, those grandiose projects pose immediate problems on their effectiveness and feasibility. Many delegates from the National Assembly have frankly expressed their concerns about the economic burden and the financial security of the nation, should these two super projects be implemented.

Corporations for Investments
The question is: Why is it that those projects are still being interpreted as urgent projects for the economy? The answer does not lie anywhere else, but in the thirst for capital investment and local benefits of economic corporations, of the State's mother company and possibly for the benefit of certain groups. Corporations always crave for investments to feed themselves, and most of the time without any consideration for the overall interests of national economy.

However, the fact that projects such as these are put forward to Congress for discussion, people have the right to hope that delegates would actually consider for the common interests of the economy as a whole, and for the benefits of people at the present and also in the future, therefore, would refuse the thirst of benefit groups and corporations for investments. Otherwise, the loss will be bear by the economy as a whole, while the benefit would go to a minority of corporations regardless of the risk on the security of the national finance.

Vietnam Fishermen Determined To Cling to East Sea Despite China's Fishing Ban

Not abandoning the fishing ground regardless of the unilateral and illogical fishing ban of China (from 16 May to 16 August 2010) on the Hoang Sa sea waters belonging to Vietnam, fishermen from the central region bravely stand side by side together to hold on to the sea for their living and determined to keep the Vietnamese traditional fishing ground.

"What direction are you heading? Stay close to Danang then steers out: "Never before are fishermen updating information on radio frequencies regularly as they are, now. And in the context that China unilaterally and absurdly decides to close the sea, until now, the majority of fishermen from Quang Ngai Province still head to Hoang Sa direction.

According to the statistics of the Quang Ngai Border guards Command, to until today, there are 50 vessels with nearly 500 fishermen operating at the sea waters of Hoang Sa and 113 other vessels with 2,204 fishermen fishing in Truong Sa (Spratly) sea.

One of the localities that have the highest number of fishermen going to Hoang Sa is the Binh Chau Village (Binh Son District) with 24 vessels and 235 fishermen. The locality possesses two community radio stations at Chau Thuan and Dinh Tan communes. Information from Hoang Sa are updated every minute to the inland.

According to fishermen, to protect each other, they have to carry out watch while operating. This is the reason why all vessels operating in Hoang Sa waters are closely linked via radio to share information. When a black dot appears on the sea, immediately all Icom sets on the vessels would air the warning so the vessels can take appropriate actions.

Quang Ngai Province has 13 community watch outposts at coastal places plus the one of the Border guards. These watch outposts continuously monitor the operations of fishermen on the sea. At present, fishermen from Binh Son and Ly Son Districts often go in groups of three or four vessels together to support each other in their operations as well as in case of need, should they be captured by the Chinese.

Fishing Ground Restricted, Catches Diminished
It is still early dawn but the Tho Quang wharf (Son Tra -- Danang) is already busy with vessels unloading their catches. After a few days of rest, they will be refueled for the next seagoing trip. "We will hold to the sea" declares Tran Bay (from Duc Pho District, Quang Ngai), captain of the QNg 48759 TS vessel.

Almost 50-year-old, Bay already has 30 years of seafaring, mostly to the fishing ground at Hoang Sa. The hardships of a fisherman's life, from weather calamities to enraging storms, have not been able to break down the weathered man, but he cannot accept the fact that China has unreasonably put a ban of fishing in areas belonging to Vietnam's territorial waters and sovereignty and causes difficulties for thousands of fishing people in the central region.

Bay said: "Since the day the Chinese ban takes effect, we must move from 200 to 300 miles farther from Hoang Sa archipelago to operate. The banned area starts from coordinate 12º north parallel to 113° east longitude covering an area from near Hainan Island to Nhatrang sea and this means they block our way to the sea. Meanwhile, during this season, fish were coming to coral reef areas near Hainan Island and Hoang Sa and if we could not fish here, the catches would be reduced dramatically."

Not being able to reach his traditional fishing ground near Hoang Sa archipelago, Bay's vessel returned to land incurring heavy losses. Having spent VND 60 million for two weeks at sea, he only caught a few tons of fish and with the price going down drastically, he did not get any profit. Sharing the same situation, Nguy Bon (Duc Pho, Quang Ngai), captain of vessel QNg 98948 TS pointing to the small catch and said: "Before, we can freely fish at area near the Hoang Sa archipelago about 10-20 miles without any problem. But since the last five years, our fishing ground has receded gradually. We fishermen now are passing the word that everywhere we go near Hoang Sa we would find Chinese navy which makes our work more and more difficult". Talking about his recent trip, he said that he has spent more than VND 60 million in expenses for 16 days at sea while his catch of mackerel only brought back more or less VND 20 million. The ship mates have to put up their own money to cover the balance.

The estimates of the management of the Tho Quang fish port and dock show that the numbers of vessels leaving port and the catch volume have diminished drastically in the last few days. On average, each day, only approximately 10 vessels leave the port for the sea and the volume of fish catch is more or less 100 tons. It was partly due to the fact that it is not the main catching season yet and partly because the Chinese fishing ban in the East Sea has affected Vietnamese fishing vessels.

In Danang City alone, many owners of fishing equipment have sold out their vessels as scrap to "go out of the business." Nguyen Van Ly, owner of a ship building and repairing facility in Nai Hien Dong ward, Son Tra, Danang City informed that his workshop has received five vessels that the fishermen have dismantled and sold as scrap. "These days, many others have offered their boats for sale, but I cannot accept as my place is too small to accommodate. The prices are so cheap but the fishermen still want to sell as they have encountered so much pressure on each sea going trip."

Determination of Fishermen Not To Be Stopped
While hurrying to bring his vessel to Sa Ky port for overhaul as he prepares for a new sea going trip after a long detainment by the Chinese at Phu Lam Island, Mai Phung Luu, owner of the QNg 66478 vessel (Ly Son, Quang Ngai) still grudges over the new of China's fishing ban. After his calculation, he would be going out to the sea in two weeks.

Luu said: "We fishermen are familiar with this type of ban. They can ban the sea groundlessly but they cannot ban the determination of fishermen folk. At Ly Son, if we do not go out to Hoang Sa what can we have for living when fishing near the coast only gives small catches. But more important is the fact that it is our (Vietnam's) sea, if we give up the sea now for fear of the ban, then it might be that our future descendents would not have any sea to earn a living."

In other fishing ban periods, Luu was captured twice, each time with a different boat. "The first time was on April 2005 when they seized my vessel QNg6426 with nine workers onboard and fined me RMB 70,000. The second time was on July 2005 with my new vessel QNg 6437 and 11 persons. They held people and increased the fine up to RMB 100,000. And with the recent events, to be frank with you, I almost went bankrupt. But I have to borrow money to keep on going out to the sea. If I stay home, I would have spent all my life and not able to pay back the debts" Luu confided.

Luu said: "When we talked to the fishermen with their vessels mooring at the Tho Quang dock site, they all told us that though the fishing activities are encountering a lot of difficulties from restricted fishing ground and reduced catches that sometimes are not enough to cover the expenses, they are determined to continue to go out fishing and defend the territorial waters. Bon, a fisherman said: "Whatever the difficulties may be, we will sail out to the sea soon as this is the undisputed traditional territorial waters of Vietnam."

Although still haunted by the last year illogical repression by Chinese navy vessel at the Hoang Sa waters of Vietnamese sovereignty, but Pham Le (from Duc Pho, Quang Ngai) captain of the QNg 94734TS and his shipmates still choose Hoang Sa as their next destination.

"In May 2009, we were operating at coordinates17°30 North and 110° East, about 300 miles from Hoang Sa, when the Chinese vessels started to attack us, confiscate all the fish, destroy the equipment and harass the shipmates causing us a heavy loss that time. The fishing ban on the East Sea this time is aimed at creating difficulties for our fishermen but we are determined to go out to the sea as an act to assert our sovereignty" said fisherman Pham Le from Quang Ngai.

More Than 1,000 Proposals, Petitions Sent to National Assembly

The Central Committee of the Vietnam Fatherland Front has recently forward to the National Assembly the "Comprehensive report of proposals and petitions from the constituents and people of the country". Before the 7th session of the Danang City (12th tenure), the Board of Chairmen of the Central Committee of the Vietnam Fatherland Front and the Standing Committee of the National Assembly have compiled 1,157 opinions and petitions of constituents and people sent to the National Assembly.

Particularly, people and constituents are very concerned about the fact that seizures by foreign vessels of our fishing vessels operating in Hoang Sa waters belonging to our national sovereignty are on the rise and affect the living and production of our fishermen. The constituents and people petition to the National Assembly and the government to implement effective measures to protect and support fishermen operating at sea to help settle their living conditions, develop the economy and contribute to the safeguarding of national sovereignty over territorial waters and islands of our fatherland.

State of Vietnamese Economy

The trade deficit which in the last three years reached $45 billion has had a negative impact not only on the international balance of payments, but also on the macro balances of our economy. The target to "rein in this wild horse" at 20 percent this year is absolutely necessary.

Managers have approached this target from two directions: promoting exports and restricting imports. The Ministry of Industry and Commerce forecast that the increase in exports this year will not be 6 percent as planned by the National Assembly but rather 7 percent, so the export goal should be $60.777 billion (the 2009 figure was adjusted to $56.801 billion). By keeping the trade deficit at the threshold of 20 percent, this year's import "quota" will be $72.932 billion, and the import turnover will be $12.155 billion, which means a decrease of $719 million compared to the import turnover in 2009.

Export-Import Growth
According to the January 2010 estimate announced by the General Department of Statistics, although the absolute level of trade deficit decreased sharply compared to the last four months of 2009, the scale of trade deficit was still above the goal because while exports increased vigorously, imports increased even more.

Specifically, while export turnover was estimated at $4.9 billion, an increase of 28.1 percent compared to the same period in 2009, imports reached $6.2 billion, an increase of 86.6 percent. Therefore the import surplus was $1.3 billion, and the trade deficit was 26.53 percent, higher than the target limit of 20 percent.

Obviously, in theory, this is just a "warm up," and perhaps there is time to adjust, but actually there are grounds to assume that there will be a strong increase in imports, while exports will grow at a much slower rate. Therefore it is possible to be unable to achieve the target of reining in the trade deficit.

An increase in both exports and imports will resonate because of two factors, the increase of quantity and the increase in prices, but the factors for the basket of imported products are much more significant than for the basket of exports.

In particular, the estimates of export and import of products for which statistical data on quantity and value are available - nine export products and 11 imported products - showed that in January, total imports increased 95.82 percent, and that 41.1 percent was due to increases in price and 54.5 percent was because of an increase in quantity. The price factor caused a 45.24 percent increase in exports, and although actual export value increased only 37.43 percent, quantity decreased 7.81 percent because a considerable amount of crude oil was reserved for the "first-born" of the petrochemical industry in our country.

IMF Forecast
Certainly in the future "made in Vietnam" petrochemical products will replace some products we have had to import for a long time, but it is obvious that the import segment of the economy in general will grow much more than exports.

This judgment is based on the price trends which are very different for various product groups on the world market, as well as their unequal correlation in the two baskets of export and imported products. In fact, whether world prices decrease or increase, prices of manufactured and processed products will change less than prices of raw materials. In the present period, according to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast, instead of the decrease of 31 percent in 2009, world prices of raw materials will increase about 16 percent this year, while the estimates for manufactured and processed products are -9.1 percent and +3.1 percent respectively.

Affect of World Pricing
Given the conditions of world pricing, the structures of the two baskets of export and import products in our economy are sensitive. There are two reasons for this. First, on the average in the last three years, the basket of imported products was nearly 22.5 percent more than the basket of export products. Second, in such correlation, the group of raw and unprocessed materials and fuel accounted for 65 percent of the basket of imported products, while the group of raw and semi-processed products accounted for only about 46 percent of the basket of export products. Therefore, the affect of world pricing on the basket of imported products is 1.7 times greater than on the basket of export products.

Because of structural differences, the basket of imported products shrunk much more than the basket of export products (13.68 percent versus 9.39 percent) during global economic recession in 2009. This year the basket of imported products will expand much more than the basket of exports.

For this reason, instead of decreasing in the chilled conditions of 2009, the trade deficit will increase this year when world prices heat up again according to the familiar scenario of the past years. However, to restrict imports in order to restrain the trade deficit, we cannot avoid restructuring the economy, but that would take a long time.