New Geopolitical Equation in Asia

After the dramatic announcement of killing of Osama Bin Laden, a big change in the geopolitics of Asia has become evident centering the dilemma in the relations between Pakistan and the United States. Through this incident, signals are being received regarding a visible role of China and a shrink in the influence of the United States in this region as a split has been created in the relationship between Pakistan and the United States. The plummeting in the Washington-Islamabad relations first came to the limelight through the arrest of a US contractor Raymond Davis, who is known as a Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) spy, for his involvement in the killings of two Pakistani citizens. After languishing for three months in prison, Raymond Davis was freed in March with the payment of blood money.
Since then, it was being thought that the US pressure on Pakistan would be mounted. Exactly this happened. Subsequently, the United States claimed that their commandoes have killed Bin Laden in a raid. Pakistan has described the raid as a blow to its sovereignty. However, the United States has brought an allegation against Pakistani intelligence agency for providing shelter to Bin Laden. Though a number of questions have surfaced centering this raid -- whether Bin Laden was really killed in the attack or he was killed much earlier or anybody else was killed in the name of Bin Laden.
War on Terror
Centering this incident whatever it might be -- the actual Bib Laden killed or no -- Pakistan is trying to come out of the influence of the United States, a long time friend of that country. Within 15 days of the killing of Bin Laden, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani visited China. The Chinese leaders categorically announced that Pakistan has significant contribution to the war on terror. This country is also a victim of terrorism.
The Western countries must show their respect to the sovereignty of Pakistan. The Chinese leaders further announced that Beijing will consider any attack on Islamabad an attack against it and China will always stand beside Pakistan. This announcement from Beijing in the face of an intense pressure from the west was not only a matter of ease for Islamabad, but a clear indication that China support Pakistan at the time of difficulty.
Building Gwadar Port
Massive steps were taken to enhance military relations between China and Pakistan during this visit of Gilani. The area of cooperation also includes transfer of military technology side by side with military assistance. China has assured Pakistan of supplying more than 50 JF Thunder Aircraft within a shortest possible time. In addition, the two countries have reached an agreement on purchasing frigates for the navy and training on operating submarines. Seventy-five percent arms of Pakistani Armed Forces comes from China. Very soon 260 Chinese fighter planes will be added to the Pakistan Air Force. It is being though that Pakistan is going to be a member of Shanghai Cooperation from an observer at the behest of China. And this might add a new dimension to China-India relations in the coming days. During Gilani's visit to China this time, the most important military on the agenda was the proposal of setting up a naval base at Gwadar Seaport, built on assistance from Beijing.
China and India have long been involved in a race for expanding influence in the India Ocean. Comparatively India navy is now stronger in the India Ocean. It can be said India has its hegemony on the sea. An intensive relationship of cooperation of India navy with the US Navy has been added to this. China has to import its fuel oil from the Middle East through the narrow strata of Malacca under the India-US naval surveillance. During any adverse situation the India-US naval power may close down this supply route for China. Alternative sea routes are very essential for China. Beijing is going to be achieved this opportunity this time completely. Gwadar seaport has multifaceted military significance. Virtually this port will be the main center for China to maintain its influence in the southern seacoast of Asia. From there China will be able to maintain its surveillance on the Indian and US Naval Forces.
Gwadar Seaport is very close to the seacoast of Oman. The distance of the Persian Gulf from here is not so far. Before 1958, Gwadar was under Oman. Later, the area was handed over to Pakistan. In 1973, US President Richard Nixon visited Pakistan. During the visit, the then Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto requested Richard Nixon to help building a seaport at Gwadar. Bhutto proposed that Pakistan would ensure benefit of the US Navy from Gwadar if the port was built with assistance from his country. But Nixan did not make any response to that proposal.
Failing to get any support from the US for building the seaport at Gwadar, Pakistan did not abandon its plan in this regard. Later, they sought helps from China in this regard. The work on building the seaport began in 2002 with assistance from China. China invested $200million for construction of the seaport. The first phase of the construction of the port ended in 2006. Singapore Port Management Authority was given the responsibility of running the port. Now China will be given the responsibility of running the port from Singapore Port Authority. A decision has been taken to review soon the port management by Singapore Port Authority.
The work on establishing direct road and railway communications with China from Gwadar seaport has begun so that oil tankers could be transported to Chinese territory from the port. China began the expansion of road network on Karakoram Highway from Gilgit in Pakistan to Xinjinag province of China. In 2006, Islamabad and Beijing signed agreement to build a road from Kashgar in China to Abbottabad in Pakistan. The two countries took the decision of constructing an alternative land route in consideration that Karakoram Highway might be risky for bigger containers. Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari visited China in July 2010. During his talks with Chinese President Hu Jintao, a decision was taken to set up 3,000 km railway line from Kashgar to Gwadar.
Security experts believe China will use this port equally both for civil and military purposes. Chinese ships will not anchor at the port only, but its submarines use the same as a base. In a recent report by New Delhi-based Institute of Defense Studies and Analysis said this port is a threat to India. Gwadar Port is very close to Hormuz strata. During any adverse situation, Pakistan might impose restriction on this route. However, Beijing will be able to conduct a complete surveillance on Indo-US naval maneuverings in the Arab Sea and Persian Gulf.
Pressure From Western Countries
Both the United States and India are worried over this strategic and military cooperation between Pakistan and China. Many people think the conflict between the CIA and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is rooted in the relations between China and Pakistan. It seems that the US has toned down to Pakistan as Islamabad successfully played the China card in face of relentless pressure from the Western countries.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made a surprised visit to Pakistan along with Admiral Mike Mullen, then chairman of the Joint US Chief of Staff. Hillary announced that the United States will continue its cooperation and the war on terror with Pakistan. So long the United States has been alleging that Bin Laden had been hiding inside Pakistan with helps from Pakistani intelligence officials. But during her visit to Islamabad, Hillary said she did not believe top Pakistani official knew about the hiding of Bin Laden in that country.
The US security adviser has already announced that Washington's assistance to Pakistan will not be stopped. The US concern has started unfolding at a time when Pakistan is set to go under the total influence of China.
Despite conducting drone attacks inside Pakistan to eliminate the Taliban militants, the United States has been holding talks with the Taliban at the mediation of Turkey. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) officials have already held meeting with mid ranking Taliban leaders. Recently, former NATO official and former foreign minister of Turkey Hiqmat Setin said that Turkey was going to hold high level talks with the Taliban soon.
It is being observed that the United States contact with the Taliban still exists. However, Pakistan has been made the target of the Taliban. Questions have now been raised from inside Pakistan about the motive behind the recent attack on Pakistani naval base in Karachi and destruction of two naval surveillance aircraft. Whether any special message is being given by this type of attack. It has become clear from the nature of the attack that the target of the raid was to hit the military strength of Pakistan. A section of the mass media in Pakistan has alleged that those who have been conducting this type of attack in Pakistan in the name of the Taliban have special links with the US and Indian intelligence agency.
Pakistan's Military Cooperation with China
However, India has already expressed concern over Pakistan's military cooperation with China. Following the claim of killing Bin Laden at Abbottabad by the US force, a hint was given from New Delhi that India might conduct similar attack on Pakistan. The reaction shown by Pakistan in response to that desire of New Delhi is another cause of concern for India. Pakistan made it clear that if India dared to conduct such raids Islamabad will limited scale nuclear weapon or tactical nuclear arms. It was not so long known that Pakistan has such sophisticate nuclear arsenals.
At the same time, India plunged into another diplomatic difficulty. India handed over a list of 50 terrorists residing in Pakistan to Islamabad authorities and demanded their extradition for trials. The following day reports were published in the Indian newspapers that two of the listed terrorists detained in Indian prisons. Indian wanted to mount pressure on Pakistan in line with the United States, but they himself got entangled in trouble. And as a result, the image of India was tarnished.
After the killing of Bin Laden, the competition launch between the United States and China for expanding influence centering Pakistan gives a signal of a new strategic equation of the Asian superpowers. Iran has also joined the race. Iran has already expressed its solidarity with the integrity of Pakistan. It is being thought that Pakistani military officials have been maintaining contacts with Iran.
Importance of Islamabad
Except China, Pakistan has taken initiative of enhancing cooperation with Russia. President Asif Ali Zardari had already visited Russia. He was given a rousing reception in Moscow. The new relations of China and Russia with Iran and Pakistan could turnout to be a big concern for the United States in future. This will make the position of US-led NATO force in Afghanistan weak, and also deal a blow to the US initiatives of establishing control over the energy resources in Central Asia. In addition, Russia, China is also enhancing its influence in the Central Asia. A cooperative relation between China and Pakistan will help Beijing to make another step forward in expanding its influence in this region. Because of road communication with Central Asia and port facilities, the importance of Pakistan has increased. Despite multifaceted pressure from United States and acts of sabotage inside the country, Pakistan is playing the cards of its good relations with China and Russia because of its geostrategic position. And this is the main weapon of Pakistan. Because of this it is very easy to criticize Pakistan, but difficult to avoid.

Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations

Pakistan and Afghanistan are two brotherly countries sharing the holy religion of Islam and living up to the principles of this religion, while both the countries also have a common border and a common bright future. Earlier too, the two countries have faced strained relations along their common border. However, the then leaders had resolved the matter peacefully through their vision and wisdom.
During the rule of Shahids (martyrs) Sardar Mohammad Daud and Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, both the countries had suffered tense relations but Shahid Zulfikar Ali Bhutto made these relations all-time better with just one visit to Kabul.
Various Important Matters
The security commander of Kunar Province has informed the capital, Kabul that the borders of his province have repeated been violated by Pakistan with the use of artillery. He said the central government should allow him to show his reaction. The report has come at a time when several days ago a delegation of Pakistan visited Kabul and later a team of Afghan high officials paid a special visit to Pakistan. During the visits, both the sides discussed various important matters, including trade, and also signed agreements.
During the visit, no country even complained about violation of the common border. The Afghan delegation, during the talks, did not even mention that its border has been crossed by Pakistan troops.
The Afghan capital had also been given the report that two innocent children had been injured in firing by Pakistani troops. Both the countries need leaders having wisdom and vision to resolve the grievances of the neighboring Islamic countries.
Pakistan and Afghanistan should end differences and restore the normal relation, which are in the larger interest of both the countries. The enemy of Afghanistan is the enemy of Pakistan. Similarly, the enemy of Pakistan should be the enemy of Afghanistan.
Principles of Good Neighborliness
Serving the interest of each other, both the brother Islamic countries would become prosperous nations of the region, which is the interest of Afghanistan and Pakistan. There are over 18 countries of the region, including Central Asia, which are leading a happy life and whether at official or non-official level, they are making progress in every field. However, only Pakistan and Afghanistan have turned into battlefields of rival countries.
If the civil and military leaders of both the counties keep the principles of good neighborliness and better life of their people in view, all their problems will get resolved tactfully.

Kyrgyzstan in Crisis

The situation in Pakistan and Kyrgyzstan is quite similar. Both are faced with the same old problems of price hikes, unemployment and American bases. Kyrgyzstan is one of the poorest countries in Central Asia, but the President House in this country is called the White House. The police and the army have been unable to control or contain the roaring flood of masses suffering from hunger and unemployment.

Like Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan is also an US ally. The greater part of its border is shared with China. Some parts of its border adjoin Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. It has strategic importance for the United States because of its large common border with China. It, also, is home to a number of US military bases.

Background to Instability
According to the United States, these bases were established to support US and Allied forces in Afghanistan. Interestingly enough, Kyrgyzstan is a unique country by having both US and Russian military bases. It has become a sandwich between the two super powers. The leader of new opposition government, Roza Otunbayeva, claims control over four out of seven provinces of Kyrgyzstan. She intends to close US military bases in these provinces. Former President Kurmanbek Bakiyev has fled the country. Public hatred against him is very high.

The Kyrgyzstan opposition party has accused the US administration of ignoring rigging in the general elections after getting the issue of military bases decided. But the new government has demanded the United States to close down its military bases in the country. Russia offered $2 billion to ex-President Kurmanbek Bakiyev to close down the US military bases, but he bargained with the Americans and increased the rent for the US bases.

The situation is not very clear. I am still collecting information on it. The United States has established military bases to keep China in check. Strategically it is very important for the United States because from here it can easily oversee China.

Economically, people are ruined and their only source of survival is the money received through remittances by their labor working in Russia. The Russian economy itself is in bad shape. Instability in Kyrgyzstan will definitely affect the US interests in the region.

Pro-US or Anti-US
The opposition, being a coalition, is naturally anti-US. This is just the beginning. At this stage, their political affiliations and intentions are quite murky. The facilities provided to the common people by the old communist system are no more to be seen.

Now, the country is being run along capitalist lines, with the support of the United States. The capitalist system has increased the problems of the common people. In fact, it is an economic crisis.

Involvement of Religious Element
Unfortunately, whenever some thing happens in an Islamic country, the United States and anti-Muslim forces try to give it a religious flavor. The people want their basic needs of food, shelter and health provided, as it was under the communist system.

But the government is unable to do so. Since communism has been abolished, the next common factor is religion. This situation is being dubbed as an Islamic Revolution or as a form of extremism.

It is very difficult to say which country is supporting this crisis. But, there are many countries which have an interest at stake in Kyrgyzstan. They will support their interests. Neighboring countries definitely have their interests because they are sharing borders with Kyrgyzstan. It is just like the Pak-Afghan situation. Anything happening in Afghanistan casts its shadows on Pakistan. Changes in Kyrgyzstan will definitely cast their shadows on Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

Uzbekistan has expressed its concern over the situation in Kyrgyzstan. The Uzbek Government also smells changes within its own borders. Uzbekistan is adjacent to the Ferghana Valley and is primed for revolution. Central Asia is on the verge of a flash point.

Manmohan Singh's Saudi Arabia Visit

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's Saudi Arabia visit has been very successful and both objectives of strengthening bilateral relations and increasing pressure on Pakistan seem to have been fulfilled. Saudi Arabia has great influence over Islamic nations of the world.

There is a traditional reason for one, as the holy places of Mecca and Medina are situated there, and second, the economic reason, i.e., its coffers full of petro-dollars with which it helps many countries. Pakistan is among the main countries that have benefited from Saudi Arabian coffers.
Looking at the coverage given to the Prime Minister's visit in the Saudi Arabian media, it seems that Riyadh is aware of India's growing stature. Saudi Arabia knows that India would play a big role in future international politics. These things have been confirmed during the first visit of any Indian Prime Minister to Saudi Arabia in the past three decades.

Pakistan Factor
While calling Pakistan a friendly nation, Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal said in a straightforward manner that activities of terrorist elements in Pakistan are a matter of concern. However, Saudi Arabia's record in this matter has not been good. The demon that has raised its head in Pakistan was nurtured on petro-dollars of Saudi Arabia for decades. It was during Ziaul Haque's rule, that there was fundamentalist Islamization of Pakistan and it was done in those thousands of madrasahs that were built with Saudi Arabian money, where mujahidin were being prepared for Jihad in Afghanistan. Apart from Pakistan and United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia was the third country that had recognized the Taliban.

Before the 11 September 2001 attack in New York, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia were countries that patronized the Taliban. Salafi and Wahabi fundamentalist sects hold sway in Pakistan. The Saudi Arabian rulers are responsible for it. However, Saudi Arabia has changed in the post 11 September 2001, changed world. It is fighting with Al-Qa'ida on its own soil and is playing the role of a friend of the United States in Central Asia.

International Diplomacy
Saudi Arabia does not have a lot of hopes from Pakistan, because Pakistan is continuously going backward socially and economically, while India's graph is going upward. Practicality always weighs heavy in international diplomacy and power balance. The principle of practicality says that India and Saudi Arabia should increase mutual cooperation. Pakistan is on the margins in relations between these countries and it is better if it stays there.

Thousands of Indians working in that country will enjoy maximum benefit with this increasing cordiality in relationship. Reports of dishonest agents luring Indians to lucrative jobs and sending them to Saudi Arabia are received quite often. Their passports are snatched away on their arrival, and they are forced to live a life worse than slaves. These Indian laborers are expected to receive justice in the Saudi Arabian system with this new friendship being forged between the countries.

Iran's Rapid Progress After Revolution

Islamic Republic of Iran is one of those few countries that have traversed a long journey of progress and efficiency in a small period. Previously this country was regarded a backward country of the Third World. According to survey, from 2003 to 2005 Iran was ranked 44th out of 139 in the field of science and technology. Iran was at No 2 out of the 23 countries in the region, which include South Asia, Middle East, Central Asia, Coastal Countries of Persian Gulf, and Caucasian states.
In the cultural field Iran was No 2 among these countries and at the international level it was ranked 26th. With regard to military strength Iran is third in the region and at the international level is ranked the 13th country.

Prominent Advancement
Before the prominent advancement in space activities during the last two years Iran was at No 27 out of 39 countries with regard to space technology, whereas presently Iran has become the 11th member of the international space club. In this way a review of Iran's development in some fields can be seen.
After the revolution, the opinion of public was given importance and national matters were disposed off through self determination. Therefore, after a passage of thirty years in Iran, on the average, every year one stage of election is held. In these, worth mentioning are the presidential elections, parliamentary elections, local bodies elections and elections of council of experts (Majlis Khabargaan) for electing a guide.

Rising International Power
However, during the imperial era the leadership of the country was in the hands of one dictator king and ministers of cabinet were not the elected representatives of people. After the fall of Eastern bloc of former Soviet Union presently the Islamic revolution has come forward as a rising international power in confrontation to the Western Capitalistic system whose leader is the United States. Therefore, Islamic Republic of Iran and forces supporting Iran are obstacles to the new US plans in Middle East.
The development and progress of Iran in the field of science is being reckoned as an important success attained after the revolution. Thus, presently the scientists and researchers of Iran are being reckoned as top ranked scientists in the world. In the field of preparation of atomic fuel, Iran has become the world's fifth country. The prominent successes in the atomic field are the complete acquisition of atomic fuel technology, the large UCF complex in Isfahan, the uranium reprocessing installations at Natanz and the construction of heavy water project at Erac.
With respect to scientific research, Iran is included in the world's five important Islamic countries. Iran has made prominent advancements in Laser technology, biotechnology, nanotechnology, micro technology, and genes technology.
In the last few years Iran has made astonishing progress in the fields of computer software, hardware, and robot. Iran has many a times attained positions in robot making and robots in the international competitions.
Iranian male and female students have attained prominent positions in many international scientific competitions. They include mathematics, chemistry, physics, and computer Olympiads. The attainment of fist position in scientific inventions competition at Switzerland and second position in the competition of inventions and scientific revelation at Moscow are great work to be proud of.
Therefore, from the success of revolution to 2002, 500 inventions have been made. However, in August 2006, the leader of Islamic revolution Ayatollah Ali Hoseyni-Khamene'i stressed on further efforts in the field of sciences especially the compilation of scientific program in the country and creation of a revolution in software technology. After this in 2007, the number of inventions astonishingly reached up to 6,000.

Scientific Invention Research Sector
In 2007, in the scientific invention research sector, Iran became Asia's fifth and region's first country. They include the advancements in the fields of mathematics, mechanical, chemistry, engineering, nanotechnology, and medical which are worth mentioning.
Iran is ranked the world's 12th country in mathematics, 13th in the field of computer, 17th in the field of mechanical, 18th in the field of Chemistry, and 12th country in the field of nanotechnology. This matter is specially worth mentioning that in the field of nanotechnology, Iran has attained a prominent position among the Islamic countries.
In the past few years there has been an increase of 92 per cent seats in the Iranian universities. Before the revolution the number of male and female students in the universities was only 200,000, whereas after the revolution this number has increased to 1.3 million. This rate of progress is equivalent to developed industrial countries that is at the ratio of 3000 students to 100000 people.
Presently there are a large number of foreign male and female students studying in reputed educational institutions of Iran. There is an increase in the construction of schools after the revolution. Accordingly in the first 12 years of the revolution a total of 30,000 schools were constructed that despite during this period Iran Iraq war continued, whereas during fifty years of the Pehlavi era, a total of 47,000 schools were constructed.
At the time of Iranian revolution the rate of literacy was 30 percent whereas presently more then 80 percent of people are literate. Iran has been given numerous international awards in the field of spreading education. After the revolution Iran has made amazing progress in the medical field, whereas before the revolution it was backward.

Import-Export
With regard to medical treatment and medicine At present, Iran is self-sufficient and is included in the list of important countries providing medical services and manufacturing medicines. Ninety-five percent of the 4,000 medicines required for the country's need are being produced in Iran. In 1986, after the revolution medicines worth $70 million were exported.
In the last few years Iranian experts have produced such medicines which have been invented for the first time or their production was a monopoly of very few countries. Iran has acquired the ability of basic biological cells grafting and freezing technology which is in possession of only nine countries. With regard to producing biomedical goods Iran is ranked third in the world. Similarly, Iran is now included in the important countries for heart, eyes and kidney grafting.
Before the revolution, 50 operations of kidney transplantation had been carried out in the country whereas after the revolution this number has risen to 17,000. Iranian researchers have discovered treatment for aids. Similarly for the treatment of eyes, Iran has made a major advancement.

Industrial Sector
The United Nations has presented an award to Iran for population control. Iran, like other fields has made a significant progress in the industrial field. After the revolution many industries were set up for the first time whereas prior to the revolution mostly foreign goods were assembled. Presently helicopters and aircrafts are being manufactured in Iran. These also include passenger aircraft Iran-140, which by all standards is considered to be a most modern aircraft.
The ship manufacturing industry has been promoted. The vehicle manufacturing industry developed significantly and various types of buses, cars, tractors, trucks etc are being manufactured. In Erac, Sheraz, Tabrez, Bandar Abbas, Isfahan, and in North very large petrochemical complexes and oil refineries have been set up. At the beginning of the revolution production of petrochemical goods was 2 million tons, whereas in 2008 it increased to 22 million tons and the target fixed for the next year was 35 million tons.

Revolution in Field of Oil and Gas
After the revolution in the field of oil and gas, 40 large factories were set up. In Bushahr, the first atomic power plant was set up. In Ardbeel a power plant operated through underground energy and at various places power plants operated through air, gas and oil have been set up. Accordingly Iran has become self sufficient in power production and power is being exported to various countries.
Iran has also offered to supply 100 MW of power to Pakistan to end power cut. In their industries like household goods, industrial and construction material, electrical goods, nutritional goods etc, there has been an increase in factories. There has been a very major increase in steel and iron production. Thus, by 2013 Iran will be included in the big countries exporting steel goods.

Constructing Dams
Iran has made progress in the technology of constructing dams and is ranked 14th in the world in this regard. Iran is cooperating with different countries to plan for construction of dams which include construction, research and studies matters. Similarly, Iran has progressed in the field of construction of roads and bridges.
In the field of military hardware production, Iran has made significant progress. Iran has started manufacturing Zulfiqar tanks, missiles of different ranges particularly long-range Shahab missiles, most modern guided laser bombs, the world's fastest torpedo and most modern heavy armaments.