Tuesday, June 14, 2011

2012: Year of Change of Big Powers’ Governments

US President Barack Obama has announced that he would contest the presidential election in 2012. Not only he, the leadership of four more permanent members of the UN Security Council is also facing election phase in their respective countries and the change of leadership may possible be seen. Obama announced to participate in the presidential election at a time when he recalled his bombers from Libya. But perhaps to fulfill his this promise or for the time being to show the American people that he intends to fulfill his promises, including the promises he had made in 2008 that he would call back the US troops from across the world, but it is the phase of producing the proof of his US citizenship. He is presenting his birth certificate.
Economic Crisis
British Prime Minister David Cameron too faces elections and perhaps he too may be far away from the success because his coalition government may face any economic crisis. There are signs of change in China as well. Xi Jin Yung will replace Hu Jintao there.
In the case of Russia, the election of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev depends on Vladimir Putin.
The success of the French president depends on his success in Libya and his office is at stake in the Libyan war.
As far as Obama is concerned, he still enjoys popularity and is moving fast and the killing of Usama Bin Laden has upped his popularity graph and history is with him. Republicans have yet not nominated their candidate. Perhaps, the 2016 election may be their target because currently they have no personality, who could compete with Obama. They are, however, definitely being accused in the US that they do not take hard stance against the enemies and ignore friends. If Sarah Palin emerged successful, it would be a historical jerk but its chances are very slim. For the success, Obama also needs success in Libya while the game of the chances of success in Afghanistan and withdrawal of troops from there will have to be played whereas in the US, there is talk of dialogue with 400 Taliban.
The Americans have made much investment on Russian President Medvedev, as they consider him a moderate person and supporter of a moderate policy. The Americans believe that he would avoid the policy of confrontation with the US because their problems too are of very serious nature. This is the reason that he avoids raising voice against the US and NATO because he is aware of the difficulties hovering around Russia. Their economy is not on sound footing and their population is decreasing. They too face threat from the Islamic extremists and they face the threat of the vacation of Siberia. As far as China is concerned, Obama knows that China is preparing to challenge them. It will definitely happen one day.
Correcting World Situation
The Americans are saying themselves that the US hunger that it correct the world situation or can lesson the difficulties of the world has died and it has started looking inwards. Then, the Americans know a little less about the incoming Chinese president but they are supporters of establishing relations on the economic lines.
1. The China challenging the US and the competition between the US and China is unavoidable. It is very important question as what arrangement Obama makes for it.
2. The Russian wholly depends on one vote of Vladimir Putin as to whether he supports the Russian president or not or he himself becomes the president. If he himself becomes the president, the difficulties may increase for the US but the affairs of Putin are not much good.
3. Third issue is of Afghanistan. This issue will be very important in the election campaign of Obama and that whether he starts fulfillment of his promise or not. The American people will definitely want to see it.
4. Last, the most important thing is that another major terrorism incident can change the entire global scenario. Any non-state actor may do anything such that the power game in the world can be turn down. The world may plunge into a global war or the tension may increase in the world. If the US president wins but the British and French rulers face defeat and in addition to Putin does not accept the pro-US president in Russia, the scenario may change. Bu after the arrest and humiliation of the International Monetary Fund Chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn of French origin, who was a candidate for the French presidency, in a sex scandal, the chances of the success of the incumbent French president have increased. Thus, the US president is advancing the game of next five years.

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