Vietnam, Philippines for Seeking US Intervention

The South China Sea, where China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei all have their sovereignty claims, is recently clouded by conflicts. Vietnam and the Philippines, in particular, have made a lot of efforts and attempts to make the United States intervene into the sovereign right disputes in the South China Sea. The conflicts have drawn the attention of the international community. Considering that four out of these five countries are member states of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the issue is related to safety in the Asia Pacific region, Indonesia, as the chair of ASEAN this year, naturally cannot turn a blind eye. Indonesia has the responsibility to stop the attempts of the two ASEAN member-states to internationalize the South China Sea row.
Exclusive Economic Zone
Vietnam conducted live-fire exercises in the waters near Hon Ong Island in its self-claimed 'exclusive economic zone' on 13 June. The nine-hour long exercises were kept limited to naval gunfire and no missile was launched. The Vietnamese authorities also mobilized its citizens to stage anti-China demonstrations outside the Chinese Embassy in Hanoi twice. These actions aimed at flexing its muscles to China. Lately, the Aquino III administration in the Philippines has repeatedly alleged that Chinese vessels had made incursions into the Spratly Islands.
The Philippines announced on 13 June that the country will rename the South China Sea as the West Philippine Sea and some Philippine Congressmen proposed to boycott Chinese products. Both Vietnam and the Philippines welcome the international community, the United States in particular, to help ease the tension in the South China Sea. In the face of all these provocations, the official media of China has warned Vietnam and the Philippines to restrain, rather than escalate the sovereign right disputes in the South China Sea.
Freedom of Navigation
The Obama and Democratic government of the United States proclaimed their plan to return to Asia in 2008 after assuming the ruling power. US State Secretary Hillary Clinton claimed that the United States will intervene into the South China Sea issue because the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea is also a core interest of the country. The US Defense Secretary Robert Gates recently announced that the country will boost its military strength in the Asia Pacific region and will even deploy its most advanced near-shore warship to Singapore. All these actions have given Vietnam and the Philippines an impression that the United States will give them its support if they come into military conflicts with China in the South China Sea.
Yet, the United States made it clear on 10 June that it does not wish to see the tension in the South China Sea and would not take the side of any party involved in the conflicts. Freedom and safety of the navigation in the South China Sea are the concerns of the United States. One-third of the US freight is shipped via the South China Sea every year. The South China Sea offers a fast passage from the western Pacific Ocean to Middle East. If a war erupts in the South China Sea, it will hit the US economy badly. At this time, the popularity of Obama has declined due to his inability to fulfill the promises he made in the presidential election in 2008 and to restore the US economy, as well as the country's massive debt and financial deficit and the high unemployment rate. Obama is now bothered by the chances of his reelection. It is impossible that the United States will go to war with China for Vietnam and the Philippines.
Why do China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei claim they have the maritime sovereignty in the South China Sea? This is because the South China Sea, which is dubbed the second Persian Gulf, is said to have the reserves of 213 billion tons of oil and enormous gas potential. The sovereign right disputes in the South China Sea is a long-standing issue that is impossible to be resolved overnight. In the 1990s, China put forth the proposition of 'set aside disputes, pursue joint development.' But it ends up 'China sets aside disputes, other countries pursue development.' General Zhang Li, former deputy chief of the general staff of China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) said in June 2009 that while other countries already had more than 1,000 oil wells in the South China Sea, China had zero oil well there. In early 2010, China proclaimed its core interests in the South China Sea and demarcated the entire South China Sea as the country's territorial waters. This became an issue of widespread concern.
State of Economy
Indonesia is the chair of ASEAN this year. The sovereignty disputes between China and Vietnam, and between China and the Philippines show a tendency to escalate and this has affected the stability in this region. Indonesia has the responsibility to contact all quarters involved and play the role of a mediator to ease the tension. Both Vietnam and the Philippines are plagued with scores of domestic problems including the weak economy, high unemployment rate, and rampant public resentment.
It appears that the Vietnamese and Philippine governments attempt to exploit this issue and incite narrow nationalist sentiment to divert the people's attention and their grudge against the governments. Meanwhile, some Chinese people have started the debate on whether the country should continue to 'keep a low profile' in its diplomatic policy.
Small Hegemonic Power
War is a continuation of politics. China has reiterated a few times that it would not resolve the South China Sea sovereignty disputes by military means and called on the relevant parties to seek peaceful resolution with sincerity and patience. China opposes to the interference of the United States because this will only make the issue more complicated. Vietnam had shown its bellicist inclination and its ambition to become 'a small hegemonic power in Indochina' before. The country had invaded its neighbor Cambodia and had gone to war with China.
Will Vietnam be overwhelmed by greed and once again provoke China -- its 'comrade and brother,' which had helped Vietnam defeat the US imperialists and regain its freedom by sacrificing the lives of its own people and its own money. How do the rulers of China, the Philippines, and Vietnam do their calculation? We really have no idea. It is quite unlikely that a war will erupt in the South China Sea, although small-scale conflicts are inevitable.