Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Will Next Pakistan-India War Be for Water?

With the passage of time, the Pakistan-India water dispute has assumed alarming proportions. It is a very long story as to when this dispute started, and which agreements the countries signed on this disputes, and how the two countries are bound to cooperate with each other under these agreements. Little brawls among farmers and peasants over water are the order of day in our rural areas today as they were yesterday. However, these brawls were far more intense when I was a child. I have seen several farmers and peasants smashing one another's head over water disputes.
However, war between countries and blocs over water was no more than a whim, idea, and apprehension until a little while ago; however, now, the war experts elaborately say that man will see this idea transformed into a full-fledged, ruthless reality in the next few years. According to their predictions, South Asia will be the first region which will fall prey to war for water and the region, famous for the fights of Panipat, will become a center of wars for water and will give the gift of a seeping cancer, like the Kashmir issue, to the coming generation. The region is all set to introduce the world to a horrible history because, like the Kashmir issue, this issue does not appear to be resolving through rebuttals and condemnations and debates and negotiations. Like the Kashmir issue, confrontation, instead of cooperation, is being resorted to in this issue too.
The devastation, which this war might wreak can be assessed from the fact that the war will be between three nuclear powers of the region, China, India, and Pakistan. Rather, the question is being raised now whether this war has not actually already started unnoticed.
Resolving Kashmir Issue
Tragically, the first decade of the 21st century has ended but the South Asian countries are still carrying the baskets of the past garbage on their heads. Considering the historical perspective and the sacrifices offered by the Kashmiris, the Kashmir issue should have been resolved and the chapter of enmity in the region should have been closed for ever. The climate of this region should have changed until now. We should have learned a lesson from the past hostility, fights, wars, and bloodshed and should have set new goals to move to new destinations. However, the conceited and intoxicates souls of the region are still soaked in the ignorance of the past while the oppressed ‘Kashmiri people’ are being subjected to atrocities.
Following the partition of the subcontinent, Pakistan and India signed an agreement on 18 December 1947. Under this agreement, the distribution of water between the two countries was to remain as it was before the partition. However, within a few months, in 1948, after the conciliatory tribunal was abolished, India blocked every canal, reserved for irrigation, which originated from Ferozpur and Gurdaspur and crossed the border between the two countries. This India act meant severe loss to the standing Pakistani crops. The unilateral Indian act was against the spirit of the international law pertaining to the rivers flowing between two countries. The Barcelona Convention of 1921, which India had signed, does not allow any country to block or divert water of a river which crosses the border to enter a neighboring country. Under Barcelona Convention, a country is not allowed to use river water to a level and in a manner that the lands of the neighboring country cannot be irrigated or it may not have adequate water.
The river system of Indus basin consists of River Indus and it tributaries, Jhelum, Bias, Chanab, Ravi, and Sutlej. All these rivers meet Indus River at Mithan Kot in Pakistan before they fall into the ocean, in the south of Karachi. The total area of Indus basin is around 365,000 sq miles. Most of this area happens to be in Pakistan while the little remaining part stretches across the disputed Jammu and Kashmir, India, China, and Afghanistan.
At the time of the partition of the subcontinent, 31 million acres out of a total 37 million acres of Pakistani land was irrigated by these rivers. However, while drawing borders between the two countries, no attention was paid to the canal system established in the Pakistan-India subcontinent. Although, the boundary commission recognized this dispute, it deliberately did not resolve it because the Kashmir issue was linked with it and the governments of both the country were unwilling to withdraw from their respective stance. Pakistan gave the threat to take the issue to the International Court of Justice. At this, India gave the assurance that the issue of distribution of water would be resolved through mutual dialogue. However, the experience of years proved that dialogue is the best tactic to delay the resolution of any problem and the insincere party uses this tactic expertly.
Continuation of Mutual Dialogue
Mutual dialogue continued from 1948 to 1951; however, the two countries could not make any headway on this issue in spite of the fact that they wanted to resolve the issue as they knew that unresolved issue of water can engender numberless disputes in future. Yet, thanks to the Indian stubbornness, they could not mutually resolve the issue.
During this time, India had started construction of a barrage in the upper part of River Bias and River Sutlej at Harik, a place beyond Ferozepur, and had also started work on Bhakra Dam site. Thus, India dismissed every Pakistani objection, which augmented bitterness between the two countries. When the stories of the hostility between the two countries spread, ‘Collier’, a famous US magazine, which continued to be published until 1957, sent ‘David,’ the former chairman of Tennessee Valley Authority and chairman of US Atomic Energy Commission, to India and Pakistan on a fact-finding mission. The idea was to prepare a report in the light of which the problem could be resolved. For several days, David tried to understand the Pakistan-India water dispute. On his return, he expressed his opinion in the form of a series of articles.
Removing Pakistan's Apprehensions
The first of these series of articles was polished in 4 August 1591 edition of the Collier. In this article he wrote that the efforts to resolve this issue should start from removing Pakistan's apprehensions of being deprived of water and being reduced to a desert. India should confirm the volume of water it is currently using and it should be made incumbent on Pakistan that it and India would jointly work on the international basin of the river. The problem should be resolved on the basis of engineering. The two countries would not be able to resolve this issue if they worked separately, as the River Indus disregards borders between the two countries and follows its natural course lying across disputed Kashmir, India, and Pakistan. The entire system should be developed as a unit and it should be run as a unit like the TVA system of the US states.

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