US at Sunset: China Captures No 1 Position in World

The United States is the most powerful country of the world. Nobody differs with this idea. The US is now at its highest peak. But many people think that this country will steadily proceed toward its sunset.
The world has a huge number of instances bearing the testimony that many nations had experienced their gradual downfall after reaching the highest level of advancement. The Roman and Ottoman empires are the glaring examples of this. It is not a story of very far past when the Sun never set over the British Empire. Now the condition of that country is very fragile. The country does not have any influence in the international fields. Economically the country is passing through a very hard time. Democracy has been in practice in that country for nearly 800 years. Britain is still the palpable symbol of democracy. Britain has presented the world with Magna Charta, which is considered as safeguard of democracy.
Democratic values born out of the Magna Carta. The absolute authority of British monarchy was curtailed by dint of Magna Charta and Petition of Rights. The British monarchy was deprived of right to capture lands anywhere. Britain had been recognized as the greatest nation of the world till the Second World War. Since then the downfall of British supremacy has begun. This empire was fallen apart after 1947.
Ongoing War on Terror
The journey of the US began after the Second World War. Despite its rising strength, the economy reached a very fragile state. President George W Bush (second) and Republicans are virtually responsible for this. Defying opinion of the international community George Bush engaged in war in Iraq and Afghanistan. The bloodletting began in the US at this is still continuing. The indomitable superpower the US has started suffering from anemia.
Recession in the US economy has begun to fall since the second tenure of President George W Bush. The Bush administration did not take any measure to check it. His successor at the White House President Barack Obama is now paying the price for that. The Republicans are now shamelessly shifting the responsibility of the recession to the shoulder of Obama. It is surprising that the Republicans are harassing taking advantage of their majority in the House. But George did face any obstruction to proceed with his political programs. During the second tenure of Bush, the democrats had majority in both the houses- The Senate and House of Representatives.
The mass media of the US has described as a 'political revolution' the capture of the House by the Republicans. Many analysts believe this is an expression of racism. Obama is the first black president and he has some 'Muslim smell' in his body. The racists in the United States and Europe could not tolerate the two aspects. And accordingly they have come furious.
Many have failed to understand why Obama is blamed for the responsibilities of George W Bush. It is misfortune for Obama that during his administration the US standard as a creditor has been brought down to two 'A' from three 'A'. And as a result, a storm was created in the world economy, which is still raging through.
The Republicans and the Democrats at loggerheads on the issue of reducing US budget deficit and desire for enhancing time frame of receiving credits. The Republicans want to save money putting the burden on the poor. They want to reduce expenditure in the heath sector. They also want to curtail the money of social security. The Republicans are dead against imposing additional taxes on the richer people. The main reason behind this is that the richer people and organization bore the big chunk of election costs of the Republican candidates in the last election.
At present a worldwide uproar has been created that the US dollar is not main recognized currency in the international market. The Chinese currency - Renminbi - is the claimant of that position. The price of the US dollar in the international market is decreasing. The greenback is in upswing only in the currency market of Bangladesh. The International Monetary Fund [IMF] thinks China will achieve the recognition of the number one country by 2025 superseding the United States.
Many analysts, however, believe China has already captured that position. The responsibility of overcoming the world recession has been shifted on the shoulder of China. And Beijing has successfully performed that responsibility.
International Economy
One analyst with The New York Times has expressed the view that one will be able to suppress the US dollar as the number one international currency in the coming 10 years. The present status of the greenback is very important for the international economy. The cause of this is that the biggest chunk of the world' saving is in the US dollar. The exchange rate of the dollar has been reduced by one third in the last 10 years. Before the greenback, the UK pound was the king of international currencies. The dollar took 10 years to replace the pound as the king of currency market. The US dollar covers 61 percent of the 5.3 trillion foreign currency fund. The Chinese currency Renminbi is still related with the dollar.
The world is now confronted with two major problems. One of the problems is inflation and the other corruption. There is no country in the world, which is not suffering from the two problems. The experts believe that the global economy will take a significant time to make a turnaround.
One Publication Ceremony and Some Sagas: A few days ago I joined a publication ceremony of two books written by ABM Saleh Uddin, who is like my younger brother. It was a jam-packed and lively function with huge participation of guests. The function earned the praise of all. I am passing days like a man under house arrest. And as a result, I gladly accept whenever any invitation comes. I always put forward a condition to the hosts. The condition is the hosts have to arrange my transposition to the functions.
I do not feel ease in discussion of literatures. Because, I have a very little knowledge about the subject. My conception about literature comes from Abu Rushd and Rashid Karim, who are like my elder brothers. However, I had gone through the novels -- Agatha Kristhi and P G Woodhouse -- just after passing the matriculation examination. I had gone though the novels of Rabindranath, Bankim and Sharatchandra Chattopadhaya at that time. I had no dearth in the supply of novels. My elder sister-in-law Sabera Tayeb was the librarian of reputed Lady Brebon College. The library of the college had also reputation across the country.
Inevitable Criticism
Rabindranath was known as the great poet while Bankim the novel king. But in the selling of books, Sharatchnadra surpassed the two. All most all the novels of Sharatchandra transformed into movies.
Movies were made more than one time on Sharatchandra Chattapadhaya's 'Devdas' and Shakespeare's 'Romeo Juliet.' None can determine which is the best one?
In the thirties and forties, condition of Bengali Muslims was very sad. They were backward in education. They could not cope with the situation. Awakening them was a difficult job. Sher-e-Bangla A K Fazlul Haque was the first person who could realize the pains of Bengali Muslims. He realized that there was no alternative of education to free the Bengali Muslims from the miserable condition. Thinking this, A K Fazlul Haque had launched Islamia College and Lady Breborn College in Kolkata and Eden Girls College in Dhaka. Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was the student of that Islamia College.
Kazi Nazrul Islam, Maulana Akram Khan and his daily newspaper-The Azad and monthly Mohammadi- were the pioneers of Bengali Muslims' awakening. Songs of Abbas Uddin, paintings of Joynul Abedin, winning spree of Mohammedan Sporting Club against the British teams were also the important factors. Jasim Uddin, Golam Mostafa, Farrukh Ahmed, Abul Hossain and Talim Hossain came out as their supportive force. No discussion on Bengali literature without making any reference to the above mentioned distinguished personalities could get perfection.
I have spent more than two decades in journalism. But many newsmen in New York have doubt about me and they frequently ask me by dint of what I claim myself as a journalist. In this regard, I will request all to remember the immoral saying of British poet and critic T.S. Eliot -- "Criticism is inevitable like breath."
But it is not wise to take cognizance of all criticisms. There are some criticisms whose acceptance helps achieving progress. For example Professor Mamtaz Uddin Ahmed a few days ago advised Saleh Uddin to read the holy Quran, the Bible, the Upanishad and the Ramayan-Mahabharat. Poet Bulbul Khan appreciated his courageous role. There are many writings in English literature, which are based on the Bible. The 'Paradise Lost' of Milton is an instance of that.

US-China Summit

The two most important countries in the world have an entangling cord of self interest that cannot be broken. Between these two countries there are also contradictions and chaos that are difficult to rationalize. This is the status quo of China and the United States at this moment. If we merely look at the relationship between these two countries, then the newsworthiness of the contents of the China-US bilateral ties are enough to let the mainstream media from China and the United States to feel as if they had hit the jackpot and found the treasure.

Moreover, for this current visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao to the United States, US President Barack Obama has accorded the grandest welcoming ceremony and high diplomatic protocol that were rarely used in the United States to receive a national leader. Adding to this, President Obama also used the "most private dinner" and the "most elaborated banquet" to entertain Hu Jintao....In this regard, whether we view Hu's visit to the United States from political contents or from merely the elaborated grand scale, the meeting between Hu and Obama was indeed a rare media feast for the press.

Diplomatic Event
Quite a lot of media have joined the crowd and watched the China-US diplomatic event passing by (in Washington, DC). However there were even more media channels devoting their energy to analyze the meeting between Hu and Obama. Just as the analysis done by the US Cable News Network (CNN) said: "If we can use one word to describe the China-US relationship, the relationship between these two countries can be described as 'complex'." As a matter of fact, the "complexity" of China-US relations is but the most essential nature and fundamental relationship between these two countries. The China-US economic and trade relations are related to business gains and advantages. However, amid such bi-lateral trade relationship, there exist bi-lateral disputes over the exchange rate of the Chinese currency Renminbi and the existing trade imbalance between the two countries. Coincidentally, out of the total Chinese foreign currency reserve as a result of the accumulation of China's trade surplus over the years, nearly $900 billion dollars of it has been used to repurchase the US treasury bonds. These bonds have in turn become a staunch financial support for the US Federal Government.

The geopolitical conflict of interest between China and the United States in Northeast Asia, the Cheonan ship incident, and the conflict between South and North Korea over the artillery shelling of Yeongpyeong island have eventually led to the strengthening of the US-Japan-South Korea alliance partnership. These developments in Northeast Asia have even led the world community to have glimpse of a possible development of a Cold War in the Korean Peninsula. But on the other hand, the United States has also considered China as a decisive force in resolving the pending North Korean nuclear weapon crisis.

Media's Interpretation
Because of this, the interpretation of the mainstream media on China-US relationship can also be quite complex, even contradictory. Take The New York Times as an example: On one hand this US media said the Chinese national leader has brought a message of peace and harmony to the United States; and on the other, this US media also questioned the authority, power and credibility of Hu Jintao. Similarly, when China's "People's Daily" emphasized the rapid and positive development of China-US trade ties; yet at the same time, this Chinese media also candidly said that the Chinese market has already become "a tree that can shake off money" of the United States. It further counter questioned the rationale of why the United States should still be unhappy about China.

Because of the complexity of China-US relations, it is unrealistic for the media from China and the United States to praise the elaborated and luxury meeting between Hu and Obama loudly and to hold high expectation that after the Hu-Obama meeting, the contradiction between China and the United States will all be eliminated and the hard ice between the two countries will all be melted. It is not practical to think that the China-US relationship has entered a period of springtime after the Hu-Obama meeting.

It remains a fact that the respective Chinese and US media will, regardless of whether their political philosophy is leaned toward right or left, will always stand on the side of their own country. Under such complex and contradicting circumstances encountered by China and the United States, we are not at all surprised that the Chinese and the US media will also engage in a kind of media war eventually.

It is worth mentioning that over the past year, the disputes and arguments between China and the United States have made the media from both sides of the countries feeling uneasy. As such, both the Chinese and US media are still full of expectation and optimism over the meeting between Hu and Obama. China's Xinhua News Agency, People's Daily, China Central Television (CCTV) and other media in China have elaborately highlighted the New energy Agreement signed between China and the United States. The Chinese media stressed that this round of meeting between Hu and Obama has opened a new chapter in China-US ties.

US Ungrateful Attitude
The Chicago Tribune is deemed as a good representation of the US media with optimistic outlook. It quoted Mayor of Chicao Richard D. Daley as saying that the visit of Chinese President Hu to China was "big deal." It reported that the Chicago Mayor has used the word "big" five times in the sentence. The excitement over Hu's visit to China as reported by the US press was palpable. Washington Post, the Associated Press, Bloomberg, and other US press have also given high hope for the positive outcome of the meeting between Hu and Obama.

No matter how the Chinese and US media interpreted the meeting between Hu and Obama, the message given out through the high profile meeting between Hu and Obama to China and the United States as well as to the world community is a good and favorable one. President Hu Jintao said: "Cooperation between China and the United States will benefit both the countries but confrontation between China and the United States will cause losses to both China and the United States." The Joint statement issued by President Hu Jintao and President Barack Obama after their meeting has stressed that these two nations would establish comprehensive and mutually beneficial partnership relationship. This has reflected the inner desire and wish of the governments of the two countries.

There is one thing we must mention here. China has signed a $13 billion dollar worth of clean energy bill, bought Boeing aircrafts and signed a big agreement worth $45bil dollars with the United States. China has taken pragmatic action to express China's goodwill and sincerity to the United States. This shows that although the China-US relationship is very complex, as long as both countries are willing to change their traditional thinking process and release goodwill to each other, there is no knot that cannot undo.

The question we have in mind now is that after the gala meeting held between Hu and Obama, while the United States enjoys the economic big feast given by China, will the US political and media circles again relapse to their own attitude and repeat their ungratefulness to China as the Chinese saying goes: "He is one who sucks the milk but turns back to scold the mother "? If this is the case, then the fantastic scene of the meeting between President Hu Jintao and President Barack Obama will become the clouds in the sky that resemble nothing. This will lead the world community to feel happy about the good meeting between Hu and Obama for nothing.

Rise of China Triggers External Response Syndrome

In the recent period, international commentaries that discuss the shift in China's foreign policy have increased. These international commentaries opine that with the increased influence of China in the international arena, the attitude of China toward the outside world has also become tough, arrogant, and is gradually giving up its traditional strategy of 'keeping low profile to conserve power.'

The forming of such opinions by international commentaries about China in recent months is based primarily on China's tough stance that was different from the past as reflected in Chinese leaders' handling of the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, President Obama's meeting with the Dalai Lama, Washington's arms sales to Taiwan, Chinese currency Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate issue and a series of other incidents such as the withdrawal of Google Search Engine portal from China.

However, through this series of recent events, what the writer of this article observed is that China has neither changed its foreign policy nor has China suddenly become tougher in the international arena than in the past. Such perception is formed when the West becomes worry and concern about the speedy emergence of China and with that concern; the West has developed a sense of loss.

Stand Toward International Community
Let us first take a look at China's reaction at the UN Climate Change Conference held in Copenhagen. At the UN Copenhagen Conference, China only insisted on adhering to the 'Kyoto Protocol' and ascertained the Bali roadmap fundamental principles. China did not come out with any new request. On the contrary, it was the United States and European countries that sought to deny the existing global warming negotiation framework and tried to start the negotiation all over again. Therefore, at that Copenhagen Conference, instead of saying China has taken a tough attitude, it is better to say the western countries have kept changing their minds.

As for the so-called incident whereby Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao did not attend the small scale multilateral summit as invited and thus reflected the arrogance of the Chinese leader, such accusation was indeed baseless. For what has transpired on this incident, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao has already given a good explanation at the press conference held during the 'two sessions.'

On US President Barack Obama's meeting with the Dalai Lama, although the Chinese Government did come out with strong words and statement in protest of the US President's meeting with the Dalai Lama, such statement was only limited to diplomatic protest. China in fact did not take any concrete action toward such protest. In the past, when the previous US presidents met with the Dalai Lama, China had always staged strong words to protest such US action. As such, judging China's traditional stand on the Dalai Lama issue, although President Obama has met with the Dalai Lama, China's position on this has been the same in the past. China did not sudden change its attitude over this issue.

Enacting Taiwan Relations Act
Now let us look at the US arms sales to Taiwan. Some US scholars opine that in the past the United States has also sold arms to Taiwan, but the Chinese Government's reaction toward it has not been as strong as the current one. However, they claimed that for this round of arms sale to Taiwan, the protest from Beijing was extraordinary strong. However such claim cannot stand the test of time. Ever since the United States enacted the 'Taiwan Relations Act' with Taiwan, the United States has engaged in arms sales to Taiwan for more than 50 times. But unlike the recent one, all the past arms sales to Taiwan only involved tens of millions of US dollars or hundreds of millions of US dollars. In other words, the amounts of arms sales to Taiwan were relatively small in the past.

Even with such a small amount of arms sale to Taiwan then, the Sino-US ties in the past 30 years have gone through many rounds of confrontation over the arms sale to Taiwan issue. In 2001, the US arms sale to Taiwan and the fleet conflicts between China and the United States along the South China Sea have added together and resulted in massive and strong anti-US protests by the people in China. As such as compared with the Obama administration's approval of arms sales to Taiwan, the protest coming from Beijing cannot be considered as too harsh and tough. Moreover, President Obama's announcement on arms sales to Taiwan was as high as $60 billion dollars. For such a large amount of arms sales to Taiwan, China's reaction and the people's response to it has not been particularly strong as compared with in the past.

Google Controversy
Another issue that has led the West to support the 'China becoming tougher and more arrogance' theory is based on China's reaction to the Google search engine portal. Some US media commentaries opined that China did not make any compromise with Google and that China has taken a tough attitude in handling the Google case. But in fact, the network filtering policy was not made by China when the Google controversial emerged recently. Several years ago when Google decided to enter the Chinese market, Google has already accepted such network filtering request from China. The initiator of the Google controversy was not China but Google. Therefore, if people interpreted that the Google case as China trying to impose stringent and tougher controls of network filtering on Google alone, such presumption is difficult to convince people.

Now let us look at China's currency RMB exchange rate issue. Some US media believed that in the past when the United States bought up China's RMB exchange rate issue, China would make concessions and compromises; but this time, China has stood firm on the currency issue. As a matter of fact, each year the US Congress would raise the RMB exchange rate issue however, it the past the annual US Treasury report released in April had never regarded China as 'currency manipulator.' This year, speculation that the US Treasury report would put China as currency manipulator was stirred very hot; and for the first time the US Treasury has delayed releasing such report but it did not refuse the request of US Congress in wanting to list China as 'currency manipulator.' Therefore, on the Chinese RMB exchange rate issue, it was the United States especially the US Government that has taken the hard-line attitude and not China.

Comprehensive Response to Rise of China
As explained above, it is difficult for us to observe that China has become tough. We also cannot observe that China's foreign policy has gone through major adjustment. Nevertheless, why has the international community, particularly the western nations think that China is becoming more rude and arrogant? I am afraid this is due to the fact that the rapid rise of China has triggered such external comprehensive response syndrome.

Since the outburst of global financial crisis, the emergence of China has become even more obvious। While China's speedy economic recovery was obvious, the western economy on the other hand, has become stagnant. As a kind of psychological sense of loss, the West has shifted blame to others. Even China has not changed its foreign policy; the economic rise of China will inevitably continue to become the target of western anger. To describe this phenomenon figuratively, it is as what the Chinese proverb says: 'when the tree becomes big, it will attract wind.'

Global Financial Crisis
In fact, in the process of China's emergence, the West has always maintained suspicious, jealous or even a resistant attitude. As such, during different period of time, all sorts of theory on the so-called the collapse of China, the threat of China, the stakeholder responsibility of china has come to the surface.

After the global financial crisis, China has shown stronger signs of recovery. Some people in the West have again come out with worry and concern about what direction a rising China will go. Moreover the international community has also become even more concerned about how the emergent China will play its influential role in the international arena. Therefore, regardless of what China does and what China says, the international community would like to put China's words and deeds under spotlight to magnify them and to come out with their own interpretation.

The influence of a strong China and the influence of a weak China in the international arena are of course different. As such the attention and the impact caused by the words and acts of a strong China are different from a weak China. This is like what will happen to our daily life as a human being. When a celebrity's words and deeds will attract attention and result in wanton speculation, but an ordinary people's words and deeds are rarely of any concern to anybody.

Toward International Spotlight
Therefore, to the emerging China that is moving toward the international spotlight and international platform gradually, when the same words and deeds China in the past might not stir strong reaction from the international community, but the similar words and deeds carried out by China this year might suddenly lead to media speculation. This is an inevitable response syndrome that can happen to China during the rise of China. This can further explain the reason why when the Chinese feel that their own words and actions have not changed, but the West feel that China is getting tougher and become more arrogant.

Nevertheless, this is the 'growing pain' of most major powers when they began to emerge in the international arena. To the speedy emerging China, this growing trouble has resulted in China has to deal with the increasingly complex range of domestic issues, and that at the same time, in the international arena, China will always have to be concerned about the reaction and feelings of the international community toward its words and deeds of China now. From analytical perspective, if China can keep adjusting its conduct and behavior during its speedily emerging process, China can make the international community feels that there is indeed no change in China's foreign policy.

China's Globalization: Changing International World Order

Everyone is amazed to witness the growth of China, which has become a new model for development in the world. The Chinese model is different from the process of modernization that Western countries underwent through the stages of colonialism and imperialism in the last century. In the context of regionalization, free trade and 60 years of bilateral China-Indonesia relations, China is suddenly like the elephant in the room.

Not only that, but China is seen as a threat to just about everyone, including the US, which is suffering from the worst financial and economic crisis in the 21st century. It is certain that China will transform the world in a fundamental way with a greater force than any other world power in the past two hundred years.

Recent signals from China are that its leaders in Beijing want to see China rise in this century of information technology. They stress that their determination to do so will not result in a drastic change in the global system that up to now has been dominated by the West. However, slowly but surely, China's rise is beginning to shift the position that the West has always occupied.

Growth and Development
The developed countries seem not to admit to the existence of China as the elephant in the room. The West feels that the growth and development of globalization, which is currently being driven by China, must follow universal norms, including norms of ethics, humanitarianism, democracy, human rights, liberty and other liberal norms. The West considers it impossible that a platform of socialism-communism can be capable of changing the world system that has been built over the last two centuries.

But, without realizing it, there is now an extraordinary shift in the balance of global power that is happening "sotto voce," and, in fact, is invisible. The phenomenon indicates a significant difference between the rise of China and the rise of Germany or Japan during the two world wars. The rise of China is also different from the rise of the Soviet Union during the Cold War era.

Factory Floor
Since the beginning of the opening up and reform of China's economic and trade systems in 1978, it has struggled long and hard to be accepted by the international community and to accrue all the privileges and positions that go along with being a superpower. As a newly emerging power, China is being forced to change and to accept international norms.

However, many observers and politicians around the world are gradually beginning to see China as a hidden threat and are saying that the world is approaching what they call "the coming China wars," as in the title of a book by Peter Navarro published in 2008. Navarro sees China as slowly dominating one by one the strong countries, and emerging in the midst of globalization as the world's "factory floor." Its rise is happening through misleading international trade with the use of the slogan "made-in-China price", by pricing goods as relatively cheaper than those of any other country's.

The rapid growth of China's economy over the last two decades has been triggered by its exports. The question is whether by continuing to spur exports China can sustain and achieve continuous growth in the midst of a global recession that has dampened consumer demand.

The extremely rapid growth of China's economy has never been experienced by any other country on earth. China's performance is considered unjust by some who accuse it of practicing mercantilism, including subsidizing its exports, pirating intellectual property and various other practices that are considered the props of the cheap "made-in-China price."

The interesting thing is that in the midst of dampening consumer demand, China continues to actively look for opportunities to maintain its economic growth and to widen its market networks, including looking for new centers of cooperation to prop up its own internal demand, and especially finding new energy sources.

Dominant Power
It is understandable that fears of China have been cropping up everywhere, including Southeast Asia with the coming into force of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement. Many feel that it will be very difficult to compete and survive in trade and economic cooperation with China, which will tend to profit the most in that trade.

We need to understand that China will continue to have its own problems in the future, such as income inequality, sustainable development, environmental pollution, corruption and others that won't just go away. At the same time, there will be other critical points that threaten sources of fresh water or of imported oil that will force the leaders in China to come up with new ways of thinking to solve them.

China's regionalization in the Asia-Pacific region should provide interesting choices, including among them the idea put forward by Beijing of a new global currency that would de facto replace the US dollar as the international standard. China itself is actively seeking ways to gradually provide a role for the renminbi in the international arena.

Current Global Recession
It can not be avoided that China is a dominant power in the Southeast Asia region. This is the stage to make China a global power on the level of the United States. China has shown its ambitions to become the locomotive for regional growth. This is an approach to make China a market for countries in the region as well as a source of investment and technology.

Coincidentally, in the mid of the current global recession, the rise of China and the fall of the US as world powers are happening at the same time. This is causing a significant change in the balance of world economic power as well as a change in the relations between those two nations. We hope that a "changing of the guard" will not lead to a terrible shock that will endanger economic growth and trade everywhere.

Spat Between China, US Over RMB Value Will Not Help Resolve Trade Disputes

The spat between China and the United States over the appreciation of RMB (Renminbi) exchange rate seems to have the tendency to heat up and expand. The US Treasury will release its annual report on 15 April. In this report, whether China will be blacklisted as a currency manipulator country might decide the future international trade direction.

As the date of the release of the US Treasury annual report approaching, the pressure coming from all directions in pressuring China to raise its RMB exchange rate has also intensified. Recently, 130 members of the US Congress have collectively sent letters to US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and US Commerce Secretary Gary Locke, requesting that the United States should list China as one of the countries that manipulates its currency. In addition EU Trade Commissioner De Gucht also felt that China's RMB is undervalued and that China should allow its currency to appreciate. Then came the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) that followed through and exerted pressure on China to appreciate the value of its RMB.

Revival of Global Economy
Facing overwhelming pressure coming from the western society, Beijing's tone has also been raised. In his work paper for the "two sessions" this year, Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao announced that the Chinese Government would not yield to external pressure and the RMB exchange rate will remain "basically stable." At a public forum held on 21 March, China's Minister of Commerce Chen Deming also said that if China was listed by the United States as a currency manipulator and if China suffered trade sanction, China would take retaliatory measures against the United States. He made this remarks in response to US corporate executives' questions on this issue at the public forum.

Issue relating to the currency rate of RMB has tremendous impact on the world community. As the world's two largest trading countries, if a trade war really breaks out between China and the United States, it will affect all other countries in the world and it may lead to the gradually reviving global economy back to the valley of economic setback again. Objectively speaking, the RMB exchange rate issue is not without a solution.

However, using high profiled propaganda measure to resolve the issue is not the best way to end the trade conflicts between China and the United States. It is obvious that the policy makers in Washington and Beijing are forced to take their respective stand on the RMB exchange rate issue because both governments are confronted by their respective internal situation and pressure.

US Health Care Reform Bill
Although the Obama Government has had its health care reform bill passed, the effort taken by the Obama administration to get it through has already consumed considerable political capital of Obama. Since becoming the US President, Obama has been actively promoting rational public affairs. But now his bipartisanship appeal has also fallen apart.

However, the unemployment rate in the United States has remained high. With the mid-term congressional election approaching, the White House has no choice but to pay more attention to the public opinion and value the feedback from the public opinions as well as to attend to the pressure coming from the opposition party and the pressure from within the ruling party.

The US public opinions attributed the US unemployment problem to the exchange rate of RMB. They said the RMB was unreasonably depressed by the Chinese authority and that as a result it has become a setback to the US export industries. At this very moment, the US domestic political scene is such that the Obama administration is n the defense side when facing the US public. As such, in dealing with the RMB issue, the weaken US Government has subtly reflected its intention to diverge its domestic pressure onto China's RMB by raising its voice sternly.

Economic Transformation
Similarly, on diplomatic front, China also cannot afford to show its weakness. This is because within China, its economic transformation has been slow, its employment situation is grim and its societal tension is on the rise. Voices coming from China's civil society demanding for societal structural change are continued to be heard. The Chinese Government is now faced with a populist movement. At this period of time when the Chinese Government has to pay full attention to handle domestic challenge, China really cannot afford to show its weakness in public diplomacy.

International pressures can only force the Chinese government to hold firm to its position and will not give in an inch. In other words, policy makers in Washington and Beijing were forced out of the internal situation to demonstrate a strong stance. However such situation will not help to solve the RMB exchange rate issue, but would further weaken each other's room for maneuver.

Trade Problem and RMB Issue
In fact the US-China trade problem and the RMB issue are not as insoluble as reflected on the surface. China's gradual accumulation of inflationary pressures will eventually prompt the Chinese Government to let the RMB to appreciate (but the appreciation rate and speed may not be what the United States intends it to be).

To this end, the Chinese Government has also sent a signal. Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao said that China advocated free trade. He said China would not go for the pursuit of trade surplus. In response to the US concern, he also stressed that China would make effort to expand imports. He said maintaining China-US trade balance should be a long-term efforts and direction.

Earlier, China's central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan also said China's current exchange rate policy was a temporary strategy in response to the global financial crisis. He said that adjustment of the value of Chinese currency was but a matter of time.

Exerting Pressure on China
Past experience has shown that if the United States publicly and openly exerts pressure on Beijing, it will be counterproductive. EU Trade Commissioner De Gucht has also pointed out that on dealing with China's RMB issue; the US Congress should adopt a cautious approach.

De Gucht believed that exerting pressure on China publicly and openly would only lead to negative and counterproductive result. As such he said he would not recommend that EU and Euro zone should adopt such an open approach to deal with China's RMB issue.

Vietnamese Protest Against Leasing Forest Land to China

Recently, public opinion is really concerned about the remarks of Lieutenant General Dong Sy Nguyen, former member of the Political Bureau, former Deputy Prime Minister about the fact that the 10 provinces along national border have rent out to foreign businesses nearly 300,000 ha of forests, including protective watershed forests and areas of vital importance to national defense and security.

Out of this total area, 264,000 ha of forests or 87 percent were leased out to Hong Kong, Taiwanese and Chinese businesses. This is not only "a miss is as good as a mile" but may be thousand miles afar and no one know where this will lead or what will be the consequences as the leased surface is too big, the leasing period is half a century and the location has a strategic meaning to national defense and security.

Independent Assessment

The Chief of Cabinet of the Lang Son Province people's committee and the Director of the Planning and Investment service have answered the interview of the BBC, refuting the concern and objection of General Dong Si Nguyen and defending the decision of the province while relevant authorities have not officially answered the heartfelt opinion of General Dong Sy Nguyen.

It is about time the public opinion raises its voice to request independent assessment the leasing process, the technical economic study as well as other issues related to national defense and security. It cannot accept the situation that regardless of whatever other people may say, it is our province's forests and we can lease out to anybody we want.

It must be asserted that the protection of forests and the forest land is our national interest that can have impact on the lower provinces and the action to lease out to foreign businesses nearly 300,000 ha of forests for 50 years is a big national issue and not just a simple matter of any one province.First of all, the effectiveness of cutting of existing forest trees for replanting new ones is still a controversial issue yet to be agreed on by international experts.

Technical and Economical Requirement

They warned that if Vietnam does not carry out the reafforestation effectively by following strict technical and economical requirement and timely (to avoid the soil being washed away or eroded by the rain when the old trees have been cut and the new ones have not been planted), it will be similar to someone "decides to amputee his good legs to opt for a pair of artificial ones". This means that it will do more harm than good, and a lot of harm.

There are a host of reasons to worry: if the new trees are not the right specie, the planting does not follow the technical and economic method and is not timely, if the company is irresponsible or not competent, if the supervision is loose, or there are loopholes in the leasing contract through which the company already reaps profit just by exploiting the timber while the reafforestation is still on paper or dragging slowly, we will encounter unexpected consequences.To help the decision process, we should start with a small scale pilot project, closely supervised by independent agency and carefully assessed before going large scale.

Implementation of Bidding Contracts

Experiences from other countries have shown that the leasing of land to Chinese companies or their implementation of bidding contracts are very complicated and not like the other countries' companies. These (Chinese) companies will usually bring big groups of Chinese workers bringing with them their own logistic and catering services typically Chinese style. They even set up their own community sector where they will use only Chinese money among themselves.The magazine the Der Spiegel (Germany) has ran a reportage about the township of Bo Ten of Laos near the border with China.

It is flooded with Chinese workers; its streets bear Chinese names; the Renminbi is freely used. The Lao living there are in fact Lao citizens administratively only while in reality they are "Chinese economic citizens".Many African countries have had similar experiences with Chinese logging and mineral exploitation companies. One may ask, with a leasing period of 50 years and a large leasing area, how big will be the number of workers mobilized for the job and how long they will stay in these regions.

These are the scenario that can not be totally set aside and which must be carefully and soundly considered before they become "things done"This is the reason why all the contracts signed by the provinces to lease land to foreign businesses on long term basis must be reassessed by an independent scientific council in a public and transparent way under the supervision of the National Assembly and public agencies.

Licensing Process and Dossiers

All the licensing process and dossiers must be controlled strictly and must take consideration of official opinions of relevant agencies including those related to national defense and security. The council will have the responsibility to propose appropriate recommendations to deal with these contracts in the name of the country and people long term interests and not of the short term benefit of a locality.

If anything dubious is found in the contract signing process, relevant agencies should be called in to clarify the matter. What should be done immediately is to draw experience from the fact that why such an important issue involving the lease of large forest land superficies for 50 years in the 10 provinces situated in national defense and security sensitive areas have not been discovered by the administrative agencies, the government and other relevant authorities?

If General Dong Sy Nguyen did not raise his concern, would the issue have been fallen into silence and what would be the consequences? The public is counting on the involvement of concerned authorities and scientific experts and is hoping that the authorities will have the obligation to answer not only the citizen General Dong Sy Nguyen himself but also the overwhelming majority of the Vietnamese people.

China To Face Mounting Foreign Trade Pressures From US, EU

China saw a 16 percent decline in its foreign trade volume in 2009. This is the greatest drop in three decades. The main reason is the shrinking demand in the international market, followed by the increase of international trade barriers, making some Chinese products facing all kinds of import restrictions.

China's Share in Global Trade
However, if we compare China's trade with other big trading nations horizontally, China's foreign trade situation in 2009 reminded outstanding. According to an official from China's Ministry of Commerce, China's share in global trade in 2009 was likely to exceed 2008 and break through the 9 percent mark. At the same time, on the export field, China is likely to replace Germany as the world's largest exporter.
The above two illustrated cases point to a basic truth. This truth is that in general, although all economies were subject to global financial crisis, the counter trade balance among different economies will continue. In other words, in relation to developed countries' economies, although China's economic growth has slow down, but the China's trade volume still indicates that it is catching up from behind.

Economic Growth
For China, this is the reason for the nation to look forward to its future development trend optimistically. China has great market potential as a late comer in development. Even if China's economic growth has slowed down, but compared to the vast majority of countries, China's economic growth rate is still something other countries cannot attain. China's National Bureau of Statistics has recently amended the country's 2008 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate. It raised the original 9 percent of GDP to 9.6 percent GDP.
China's total GDP value of about $460 billion is almost equal to the world's second largest economy, Japan. For international investors, the inherent temptation of China's investment potential can be difficult to resist.

External Pressure and Resistance
However, from another perspective, this situation will also increase China's external pressure and resistance. This fits the Chinese saying: "big tree can suffer severe wind blow." Over the past years, the size of China's economy has kept growing. One after another, the size of China's economy superseded the Group of Seven. The next round is to catch up with that of the United States. This type of economic momentum would be intimidating to other nations.
Moreover, when the major economies were not doing too good except the rapid growth of China's economy, the criticism and accusation of these economies over their various suspicions on China also increase with time. The external pressure in trying to alter China's certain policies have also rolled bigger and bigger. In recent months, the reason why the trade frictions between China and its major trading partners have increased drastically can attribute to such a factor.
The focus of criticism and accusation on China seems to concentrate in two main areas. The first area is the position and value of China's currency Renminbi (RMB). The United States and European Union countries have been accusing China of manipulating the RMB exchange rate deliberately to a low value. They said such action has resulted in these countries suffering from large financial deficits when they trade with China.

Global Financial Crisis
Before the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the former Bush administration has been trying to apply diplomatic pressure and domestic legislation to force China's RMB to appreciate. When the Obama administration took office, the US government's attitude on this issue is more moderate. However, when faced with domestic trade protectionism pressure, the US government under Obama finally could not avoid making issues out of it. Moreover, Washington also began to impose anti-dumping duties on a variety of Chinese products imported to the United States. On the European Union front, China has also endured the same criticism and accusation. China has indeed been stricken from both sides.
China also faced accusations and pressured derived from the climate change issue. Before the global financial crisis, the climate warming issue was a less complicated environmental issue. However, after going through the global financial crisis, climate change issue has now openly linked with international trade.
A more representative event to illustrate the link of climate change issue with trade issue can be viewed from certain actions taken by the US Congress. Using the accuse that China has released more greenhouse gases than required, the US Congress said it would want to enact law to impose a form of carbon dioxide tax on certain Chinese products on the US market. There is a trend for country to turn climate change issue into political issue. Such development in the United States has triggered high alert from the Chinese authority.
China felt that the United States has the intention to use climate change issue as an excuse to suppress the development of China. With such perception formed, subsequently, at the UN Climate Change Conference held in Copenhagen, China began to adopt a tough stand to deal with the United States. Such a change in attitude by Chinese officials at the Copenhagen Conference can directly be attributed to China's perception of what the United States was trying to do to China. Similar to the issue of RMB, China also received pressure from EU nations on issues relating to climate change.
At the recently held China-EU summit, for the first time, Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao publicly accused the United States and Europe for attempting to contain China's development by calling the appreciation of RMB on one hand but on the other hand, practicing trade protectionism. Few days ago, at an exclusive interview with Xinhua news agency, Wen Jiabao again made similar counter attack by stressing that on the issue of China's RMB, China would not bow to external pressure. As we refer back to the attitude of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao's hard-line stance at the Copenhagen Conference, we can see that in such a major bearing on self-development issues, the greater the external pressure China encounters, the greater resistance China will face the same.

Increasing Trade Friction
We can foresee that for a long period in the future, China's trade surplus with Europe and the United States will continue to exist. Therefore, the argument between China and the United States and EU countries over RMB will continue to exist. This currency issue will continue to bring all kinds of accusations and pressure to China. In addition, with the emergence of carbon tariffs issue, the problems faced by China can even be more complex and the increasing trade friction between China and the United States as well as with other EU countries will become inevitable.
However, China will not bow to external pressure. That is for sure. But in the end, there is a need for China to turn these pressures into the expansion of its domestic demands for the good of the people. This should fulfill China's driving force for economic transformation.

ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement

The ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations)-China Free Trade Area Agreement covering 1.9 billion persons in this free trade zone will become effective on 1 January, 2010. After 10 years of efforts between ASEAN and China, the smooth sailing of this significant agreement is a challenging test not only to ASEAN countries but also to China. Beginning 1 January, a new round of tariff reduction between China and six key ASEAN member states namely Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand will see more than 90 percent of the products from both parties with tariffs drop to near zero.
In November 2000, then Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji put forth this idea of the formation of an ASEAN-China free trade zone with the purpose to lift the trade barriers between China and ASEAN member nations, so that China's huge market and ASEAN countries' natural resources could reach a mutually beneficial win-win trade relations.
However, within the past few years, the economy of China has increasingly consolidated and become powerful. This is most noticeable during the global financial turmoil when China's economic performance has continued to be outstanding. The strength of China's economy has become a concern to ASEAN member nations in the midst of the establishment of this ASEAN-China Free Trade Area Agreement. Such concern is in particularly reflected in ASEAN member countries that have high volume of trade dealings with China. The enterprises and business firms in five ASEAN member nations namely Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines are worried that the exemption from customs duties for goods coming from China will challenge their local business survival with an influx of cheaper Chinese goods in the local market.

Advantages and Disadvantages
On contrary, other less economically developed ASEAN countries, including countries that do not even have established stock market mechanism will probably welcome the formation of this ASEAN-China trade agreement. These countries include countries such as Cambodia and Laos. In the case of Laos, under the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area Agreement, China would give Laos zero tariffs or less than five percent tariffs of over 7,000 kinds of goods and products import to China. To Laos, having this ASEAN-China free tree agreement will undoubtedly give the country more advantages than disadvantages.
However, to Indonesia, which is the economic engine head of ASEAN, its business enterprises do not think the implementation of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area Agreement is a good idea. Erwin, chair of the Indonesian Young Entrepreneurs Association Chairman has earlier called on the Indonesian Government not to make a rush in the implementation of the free trade area with China. He said that Indonesia had not yet prepared for such a free trade agreement with China. He even warned that when the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area Agreement became effective, a number of industrial areas, particularly the small and medium-sized industrial zones and the industries in special economic zones might face the risk of bankruptcy. In view of such concern, the Indonesian Government has now formed a joint committee with the Indonesian Young Entrepreneurs Association and the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industries to gather feedback from business community and entrepreneurs on the impact of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area Agreement.
As for Malaysia, although the business community and private sector do not have such a strong rebound over the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area Agreement as in Indonesia, nevertheless, some larger enterprises, in particular the automotive industries are concerned about the impact of having a comprehensive free trade agreement with China. This is because the Agreement can have a huge impact level on local automotive industries. If Malaysia were to follow the country's original national automotive policy announced in 2006, Malaysia would fully abolish the permit to import foreign cars by December 2010. But under Malaysia's latest national automotive policy guideline, the abolishment of the AP (Approved license to import foreign car) system has furthered been delayed to 2015.
Although the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area Agreement will become effective on 1 January, all indications have shown that to most ASEAN member countries, this new free trade agreement with China comes with mixed felling of happiness and worry. We can even say ASEAN member nations are more worried about the impact of this Agreement than happy about the new trade opportunities available. When market force of China's 1.3 billion populations and ASEAN's total 600 million population combine and compete in the same market, it is quite natural for varied businesses and enterprises in ASEAN countries to worry about the impact of it. The ASEAN business community and enterprises are concerned whether an ASEAN-China Free Trade Area Agreement concept that was mooted ten years ago could still hold the original goal in allowing mutual and win-win trade between ASEAN and China to reap fruitful result ten years later. This is because over the past ten years, the China's economy today has growth much stronger now than ten years ago. There is a concern on the part of some ASEAN countries that the implementation of the free trade agreement with China now will eventually lead to trade imbalance between ASEAN and China. Some ASEAN member nations are afraid that there will be increased trade in favor of China rather than in favor of ASEAN member countries. This is because China is a huge country with not only huge market for domestic consumption but also a strong ability to export and supplies cheaper goods to the ASEAN region.

Importance of Agreement
Even so, we have to accept the fact that the engine head of this ASEAN-China Free Trade Area Agreement has already started running. We cannot pull the button and stop its advancement. This ASEAN-China Free Trade Area Agreement is not only China's first free trade area agreement in foreign trade; it is also the first free trade zone agreement ASEAN negotiated with a foreign nation. As such, the importance of this ASEAN-China Free Trade Area Agreement cannot be undermined. The importance of ASEAN's trade agreement with China will become particularly significance when under this free trade agreement ASEAN nations begin to use China's renminbi (yuan) as the major trading currency when engaging trade with China. Such development can greatly enhance the possibility that China's renminbi or yuan will eventually become a major global trading currency in addition to the US dollars.
Overall, we can only say that the birth of ASEAN-China Free Trade Area Agreement is a necessity product in the current regional economic environment. However, whether this Agreement can be achieved and reaped the expected result will, to a great degree, depend on how ASEAN member countries can maintain a united stance on the vast and varied goods and products entered into the Agreement with China as near zero tariffs products. If ASEAN member countries cannot stand united as one and begin to have different version of free trade area with China, then as a whole, it is impossible for ASEAN to reap trade benefits from the huge Chinese market.