Crisis in Thailand Could Jeopardize Regional Stability

The latest political crisis in Thailand in these few days has plunged into a worse state since its eruption in April. The figure of casualties has reached 35 in the past four days of clashes and is expected to increase if the military is given the green light to attack the fortress of the pro-former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra Red Shirts.

Abhisit Vejjajiva administration should give due attention and immediately resolve the bloodshed conflict. If the conflict prolongs, there will be a huge potential or tendency towards a more severe conflict.

Current Turbulent Situation
In fact, some predict that a civil war may erupt in Thailand if the crisis is not resolved immediately. We have seen traces toward that direction when the government spokeperson Panitan Watanayagorn said the authorities would continue to attack the Red Shirts' fortress because the military wanted to crush the 'armed terrorists' among the Red Shirts. Like the conflict took place about 1,000 km away, which involved the Malays in the provinces of southern Thailand since 2004, it is said that some 'third party' has taken advantage of the current turbulent situation in Bangkok as well.

If this happens, Thailand is certainly on the verge of a civil war as predicted by security and strategic experts lately. Therefore, Abhisit should utilize all the strengths and wisdom to immediately restore the situation and bring Bangkok back to order and economic activities as it used to be. If Abhisit fails to restore the situation, it will expose his administration to new opposition from the business community who have been badly affected for almost two months already.

Political Stability and Economic Strength
Bangkok is the center of administration, tourism and trade, as well as the main entrance and exit for Thailand to connect with the outside world. Thailand is also one of the main cities in Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). The domestic conflict may also undermine the performance and image of the organization of Southeast Asian countries in the eyes of the international community. ASEAN has a bigger goal to create a developed and prosperous community, and in turn become an active economic player on the global stage.

All these will be influenced by political stability and economic strength of every member states. Assuming a civil war erupts in Thailand, it will increase the burden to the current government which has not managed to bring the conflict in the southern region of the country to an end yet. When this happens, it is worried that foreign countries or superpowers which have their interest in this region may have concrete reasons to interfere into the country. If this happens, Southeast Asia, a region declared as independent and neutral, may eventually be forced to accept interference of foreign powers which purportedly want to restore political stability and peace in this region.

Command of Foreign Power
The concern about 'third party' taking advantage of the situation in Bangkok is well-founded, especially if the group is linked with the label of 'Islamic extremists' or Al-Qa'ida. This will instantly beckon certain foreign power to 'help' eradicate the group and this will become the starting point when Southeast Asia will no longer be a peace, independent and neutral region.

It will instead become a region that is forced to follow the command of foreign power forever.

China's Globalization: Changing International World Order

Everyone is amazed to witness the growth of China, which has become a new model for development in the world. The Chinese model is different from the process of modernization that Western countries underwent through the stages of colonialism and imperialism in the last century. In the context of regionalization, free trade and 60 years of bilateral China-Indonesia relations, China is suddenly like the elephant in the room.

Not only that, but China is seen as a threat to just about everyone, including the US, which is suffering from the worst financial and economic crisis in the 21st century. It is certain that China will transform the world in a fundamental way with a greater force than any other world power in the past two hundred years.

Recent signals from China are that its leaders in Beijing want to see China rise in this century of information technology. They stress that their determination to do so will not result in a drastic change in the global system that up to now has been dominated by the West. However, slowly but surely, China's rise is beginning to shift the position that the West has always occupied.

Growth and Development
The developed countries seem not to admit to the existence of China as the elephant in the room. The West feels that the growth and development of globalization, which is currently being driven by China, must follow universal norms, including norms of ethics, humanitarianism, democracy, human rights, liberty and other liberal norms. The West considers it impossible that a platform of socialism-communism can be capable of changing the world system that has been built over the last two centuries.

But, without realizing it, there is now an extraordinary shift in the balance of global power that is happening "sotto voce," and, in fact, is invisible. The phenomenon indicates a significant difference between the rise of China and the rise of Germany or Japan during the two world wars. The rise of China is also different from the rise of the Soviet Union during the Cold War era.

Factory Floor
Since the beginning of the opening up and reform of China's economic and trade systems in 1978, it has struggled long and hard to be accepted by the international community and to accrue all the privileges and positions that go along with being a superpower. As a newly emerging power, China is being forced to change and to accept international norms.

However, many observers and politicians around the world are gradually beginning to see China as a hidden threat and are saying that the world is approaching what they call "the coming China wars," as in the title of a book by Peter Navarro published in 2008. Navarro sees China as slowly dominating one by one the strong countries, and emerging in the midst of globalization as the world's "factory floor." Its rise is happening through misleading international trade with the use of the slogan "made-in-China price", by pricing goods as relatively cheaper than those of any other country's.

The rapid growth of China's economy over the last two decades has been triggered by its exports. The question is whether by continuing to spur exports China can sustain and achieve continuous growth in the midst of a global recession that has dampened consumer demand.

The extremely rapid growth of China's economy has never been experienced by any other country on earth. China's performance is considered unjust by some who accuse it of practicing mercantilism, including subsidizing its exports, pirating intellectual property and various other practices that are considered the props of the cheap "made-in-China price."

The interesting thing is that in the midst of dampening consumer demand, China continues to actively look for opportunities to maintain its economic growth and to widen its market networks, including looking for new centers of cooperation to prop up its own internal demand, and especially finding new energy sources.

Dominant Power
It is understandable that fears of China have been cropping up everywhere, including Southeast Asia with the coming into force of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement. Many feel that it will be very difficult to compete and survive in trade and economic cooperation with China, which will tend to profit the most in that trade.

We need to understand that China will continue to have its own problems in the future, such as income inequality, sustainable development, environmental pollution, corruption and others that won't just go away. At the same time, there will be other critical points that threaten sources of fresh water or of imported oil that will force the leaders in China to come up with new ways of thinking to solve them.

China's regionalization in the Asia-Pacific region should provide interesting choices, including among them the idea put forward by Beijing of a new global currency that would de facto replace the US dollar as the international standard. China itself is actively seeking ways to gradually provide a role for the renminbi in the international arena.

Current Global Recession
It can not be avoided that China is a dominant power in the Southeast Asia region. This is the stage to make China a global power on the level of the United States. China has shown its ambitions to become the locomotive for regional growth. This is an approach to make China a market for countries in the region as well as a source of investment and technology.

Coincidentally, in the mid of the current global recession, the rise of China and the fall of the US as world powers are happening at the same time. This is causing a significant change in the balance of world economic power as well as a change in the relations between those two nations. We hope that a "changing of the guard" will not lead to a terrible shock that will endanger economic growth and trade everywhere.

US Puts High Hope on President Obama's Visit to Indonesia

US President Obama will soon begin his official visit to Indonesia. Before Obama's arrival, people in Indonesia have already staged protests in several cities. They burnt the US flags and used shoes to throw at President Obama's portrait posters. It seems that the shoe throwing act as means to denounce US reputation overseas has been set by former US President George W. Bush when it happened to him.

Elsewhere a bronze status of Obama depicting him as a school boy was also removed from a public park near Jakarta where President Obama used to live when he was a boy. Prior to this, this bronze sculpture of President Obama as a 10-year-old boy has triggered controversy when the sculpture was in a public park. This sculpture of a smiling Obama as a boy was dressed in shorts and T-shirt with a butterfly landed on his left thumb. At the base of the statue has inscription of these words, "Once there was a boy called Barry (Obama's childhood name) played here. Now he has grown up and become the 44th President of the United States. He is also a Nobel Peace Prize winner."

This lovely bronze status of boy Obama has good intention. The artist who made the sculpture hoped that the bronze portrait of Obama as a school boy could encourage young people to pursue their dream. However some Indonesians felt that since Obama was not an Indonesian hero and since he did not make any significant contribution to Indonesia, his statue should not be placed in public place. As such, this bronze statue was eventually removed from the public park and put in the compound of the primary school where President Obama used to attend.

Expanding Strategic Partnership
Despite local resistance, it is clear that President Obama is firmed to visit Indonesia. The visit of President Obama to Indonesia has reflected the importance of Indonesia to the White House.
Of course, President Obama's coming visit to Indonesia is not an emotional visit for him to revisit his childhood land. The main reason for President Obama's visit to Indonesia is because the United States wants to develop and expand the strategic partnership ties with Indonesia.

It is learned that the United States is prepared to resume the US training for the Indonesian Special Forces. The United States also plans to strengthen military exchange and cooperation with Indonesia and also to strengthen US cooperation with Indonesian on counterterrorism effort.

Establishing Positive Image
Another reason why Washington is keen to improve its ties with Indonesia is also because the United States is making an attempt to extend US influence in Southeast Asia in order to check and balance China's influence in this part of the world. Although Indonesia is the largest economy in Southeast Asia, there is a long relational gap of Indonesia's bilateral ties with China.

Moreover, Indonesia is also the world's most populous Muslim country. To a certain extent, Washington knows that by strengthening the US relationship with Indonesia, the United States can improve the relationship with the Muslim world. This improved and strengthened US-Indonesian ties can allow the United States to establish a positive image in other Muslin countries. This in turn will help the United States to handle the Afghanistan and the Israeli-Palestinian issues easier.

However, we still have to observe and see to see if President Obama's visit to Indonesia can achieve the substantial goals the United States hopes to achieve eventually.