Crisis in Thailand Could Jeopardize Regional Stability

The latest political crisis in Thailand in these few days has plunged into a worse state since its eruption in April. The figure of casualties has reached 35 in the past four days of clashes and is expected to increase if the military is given the green light to attack the fortress of the pro-former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra Red Shirts.

Abhisit Vejjajiva administration should give due attention and immediately resolve the bloodshed conflict. If the conflict prolongs, there will be a huge potential or tendency towards a more severe conflict.

Current Turbulent Situation
In fact, some predict that a civil war may erupt in Thailand if the crisis is not resolved immediately. We have seen traces toward that direction when the government spokeperson Panitan Watanayagorn said the authorities would continue to attack the Red Shirts' fortress because the military wanted to crush the 'armed terrorists' among the Red Shirts. Like the conflict took place about 1,000 km away, which involved the Malays in the provinces of southern Thailand since 2004, it is said that some 'third party' has taken advantage of the current turbulent situation in Bangkok as well.

If this happens, Thailand is certainly on the verge of a civil war as predicted by security and strategic experts lately. Therefore, Abhisit should utilize all the strengths and wisdom to immediately restore the situation and bring Bangkok back to order and economic activities as it used to be. If Abhisit fails to restore the situation, it will expose his administration to new opposition from the business community who have been badly affected for almost two months already.

Political Stability and Economic Strength
Bangkok is the center of administration, tourism and trade, as well as the main entrance and exit for Thailand to connect with the outside world. Thailand is also one of the main cities in Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). The domestic conflict may also undermine the performance and image of the organization of Southeast Asian countries in the eyes of the international community. ASEAN has a bigger goal to create a developed and prosperous community, and in turn become an active economic player on the global stage.

All these will be influenced by political stability and economic strength of every member states. Assuming a civil war erupts in Thailand, it will increase the burden to the current government which has not managed to bring the conflict in the southern region of the country to an end yet. When this happens, it is worried that foreign countries or superpowers which have their interest in this region may have concrete reasons to interfere into the country. If this happens, Southeast Asia, a region declared as independent and neutral, may eventually be forced to accept interference of foreign powers which purportedly want to restore political stability and peace in this region.

Command of Foreign Power
The concern about 'third party' taking advantage of the situation in Bangkok is well-founded, especially if the group is linked with the label of 'Islamic extremists' or Al-Qa'ida. This will instantly beckon certain foreign power to 'help' eradicate the group and this will become the starting point when Southeast Asia will no longer be a peace, independent and neutral region.

It will instead become a region that is forced to follow the command of foreign power forever.

Why State of Emergency Declared in Bangkok, Nearby Provinces?

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva on 7 April evening declared a state of emergency under the executive degree for administration in emergency situations in Bangkok, Nonthaburi, and some districts of Samut Prakan, Pathum Thani, Nakhon Pathom and Ayutthaya. The state of emergency took effect immediately after it was announced.

Abhisit announced the move in a live nationwide television broadcast from the Centre for Administration of Peace and Order (CAPO) at the 11th Infantry Regiment in the presence of the cabinet members.

Invoking Internal Security Act
The decision was reached at a special cabinet meeting this afternoon after a number of the red shirts of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) broke into the parliamentary compound, forcing cabinet members, including himself, and MPs attending a House meeting to flee for safety.

According to the prime minister, the government had tried to control the situation by invoking the Internal Security Act in Bangkok and nearby provinces, but to no avail as the red-shirts had continued to step up their activities and resorted to violence in violation of the law and the constitution. Their activities had greatly affected people's lives and their work, as well as the national economy and Thailand's image in the eyes of the international community.

Solving Emergency Situation
A centre for solving the emergency situation had been set up, with Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, who is in charge of security affairs, as director. The centre is empowered to take action under the emergency law and enforce various orders issued under the law. Other members of the centre include the defense minister, the permanent secretary for defense and the commanders of all the armed forces and the Royal Thai Police Office.

The main objectives in imposing the state of emergency were to return the situation to normal as soon as possible, to stop any attempt to disseminate false information in a way to incite division, to more effectively take legal action against the protest leaders, and to enable other measures to be taken more effectively.

Role of Armed Forces
According to the prime minister, the government, in declaring the state of emergency, does not aim to crack down on innocent people, but wants to maintain the sanctity of the law. The prime minister promised that all measures to be taken would be in line with international standards of practice.

The emergency decree allows the armed forces to detain suspects for an initial period of 30 days in informal places of detention without a court order or immediate access to legal counsel, family members or independent monitoring. It also allows for the declaration of curfews in selected areas and bans on public gatherings of more than five people, prohibits news reports deemed to threaten public order and allows the government to use soldiers to quell unrest.

Opposition's Reaction
In response, the UDD called on all of their red-shirted supporters to get together on Friday and try to topple the Democrat-led government.

UDD leader Natthawut Saikua declared that the protesters will not leave their rally sites at Bangkok's Phan Fa bridge and Ratchaprasong intersection.

He said: 'I ask all red-shirted supporters in the city and nearby provinces to join forces at Phan Fa and Ratchaprasong. We will fight against the guns with our bare hands. The red-shirts in other provinces can converge on their respective city halls. More red-shirted supporters had gradually traveled to Phan Fa and Ratchaprasong while the group had increased the number guards and raised the security level.'

Thai Prime Minister Issues 12 Directives Against Emergency Decree Violators

Pursuant to the announcement of the state of emergency and serious situation in Bangkok; Nonthaburi Province; Mueang, Bang Phli, Phra Pradaeng, Phra Samut Chedi, Bang Bo, Bang Saothong districts of Samut Prakan Province; Thanyaburi, Lat Lum Kaeo, Sam Khok, Lam Lukka, Khlong Luang districts of Pathum Thani Province; Phuttha Monthon District of Nakhon Pathom Province; and Wang Noi, Bang Pa-in, Bang Sai, Lat Bua Luang districts of Ayutthaya Province.

Executive Decree on Public Administration in Emergency Situations
By the power and the authority as stipulated in Section 11of the Executive Decree on Public Administration in Emergency Situations of 2005, which contains certain provisions in relation to the restriction of rights and liberties of persons, in respect of which Section 29 in conjunction with Sections 32, 33, 34, 36, 38, 41, 43, 45, and 63 of the Constitution of the Kingdom of Thailand so permit by virtue of law; Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva here by announces that:

1. The competent officials shall have the power of arrest and detention over any person who is suspected of having a role in causing the emergency situation or suspected of being an instigator, a propagator, or a supporter of such an act or suspected of concealing relevant information relating to the act which caused the emergency situation; provided that this should be done to the extent that is necessary to prevent such a person from committing an act or participating in the commission of any act which may cause a serious situation or to the extent that is necessary to foster cooperation in the termination of the serious situation. In the exercise of their functions, the competent officials shall comply with Section 12 of the Executive Decree on Public Administration in Emergency Situations of 2005;

2. The competent officials shall have the power to summon any person to report to the competent official or to give an oral statement or submit any documents or evidence relating to the emergency situation;

3. The competent officials shall have the power to seize or attach arms, goods, consumer products, chemical products or any other materials in the case where there are reasonable grounds to suspect that such objects have been used or will be used to commit or support an act which causes an emergency situation;

4. The competent officials shall have the power to issue a warrant for the search, removal, withdrawal or demolition of buildings, structures or obstructions as necessary for the exercise of functions in order to promptly terminate a serious situation where a delay might render the situation beyond control;

5. The competent officials shall have the power to issue an order to inspect letters, books, printed matters, telegraphic transmissions, telephone communications or any other means of communication as well as to cancel or suspend any contact or communication in order to prevent or terminate the serious incident provided that the rules prescribed in the law on special investigation are complied with mutatis mutandis;

6. The Chief Official shall have the power to issue any prohibition of any act or any instruction to perform any act to the extent that is necessary for maintaining the state security, the safety of the nation, or the safety of the people;

7. The competent officials shall have the power to issue an order to prohibit any person from leaving the Kingdom where there are reasonable grounds to believe that the departure from the Kingdom will affect the security of the state or the safety of the country;

8. The competent officials shall have the power to instruct any alien to leave the Kingdom in the case where there are reasonable grounds to believe that such a person is a supporter in causing the emergency situation, provided that the law on immigration shall apply mutatis mutandis;

9. The competent officials shall have the power to issue instructions that the purchase, sale, use or possession of any arms, goods, medical products, consumer products, chemical products or any equipment which may be used for causing unrest or terrorism shall be reported to or permitted by the competent official or comply with any conditions set by the Chief Official;

10. The competent officials shall have the power to order or prohibit any act that obstruct the traffic or transportation route, or any act that causes the inability to use the transportation route in the usual manner, in all areas and localities under the Emergency Decree;

11. The military officers under the Prime Ministerial Order, Special 2/2010 regarding the appointment of the of Supervisor, Chief Official, and Competent Officials Responsible for Remedying the Emergency and Serious Situation shall assist the administrative officials or the police officers in urgently suppressing or controlling a serious situation and bringing about peace in accordance with the conditions stipulated in the aforementioned Prime Ministerial Order;

12. In the exercise of functions, the competent officials under this announcement shall apply measures as necessary and proper and take care not to perform any act which causes unreasonable hardship to the people.

The Chief Official shall have the power to determine, as he deems proper, the conditions or time conditions for the exercise of power of the competent officials under this announcement.

Red-Shirted Leaders, Thai Government Truce Talks Collapse

United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) co-leader and opposition Puea Thai Party MP Jatuporn Prompan said on 30 March that the truce talks between the government and the red-shirted UDD were over because the two sides had totally different standpoints. Jatuporn said that there would be no more negotiations and the red-shirted leaders would not hold talks with the government behind people's back. The two sides just cannot end their differences.

During talks late 29 March, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva offered the UDD a compromise, saying he was willing to call a general election by the end of the year, one-year ahead of schedule.
Jatuporn said: "We want the government to dissolve the House in 15 days, but the government said it needs nine months. The government and the UDD are like water and oil. We just cannot get along together."

Revocation of Internal Security Act
The government also cannot ask for further talks in exchange for the revocation of the Internal Security Act. The red-shirted rally will now be intensified, from pressuring the government for dissolution to expelling the government, but we will continue to protest peacefully.

However, if the government would consider dissolving the House in three months, the UDD leaders would discuss it and ask for the people's views on the same. Abhisit has expressed regret at the collapse of the talks.

It is a pity that protest leaders have swiftly rejected the government's offer and signaled the immediate end of talks. Despite this, the government is still open for negotiations. Deputy Interior Minister Boonjong Wongtrairat said that the cabinet on 30 March agreed to extend the use of the Internal Security Act (ISA) in Bangkok and two adjoining provinces for another week.

Tough Time Ahead
The security law, invoked in Bangkok, Nonthaburi and Samut Prakan to ensure peace and order during the antigovernment rally, had been due to end on 30 March. The cabinet has approved a plan to impose the ISA in Petchaburi's Cha-am district and Prachuap Khiri Khan's Hua Hin district during the Mekong River Summit, Deputy Education Minister Chaiwut Bannawat.

The Mekong River Commission will meet from 2 to 5 April in Hua Hin, Prachuap Khiri Khan. The invocation of the security law is to ensure security for foreign leaders attending the meeting.