Rise of China Triggers External Response Syndrome

In the recent period, international commentaries that discuss the shift in China's foreign policy have increased. These international commentaries opine that with the increased influence of China in the international arena, the attitude of China toward the outside world has also become tough, arrogant, and is gradually giving up its traditional strategy of 'keeping low profile to conserve power.'

The forming of such opinions by international commentaries about China in recent months is based primarily on China's tough stance that was different from the past as reflected in Chinese leaders' handling of the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, President Obama's meeting with the Dalai Lama, Washington's arms sales to Taiwan, Chinese currency Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate issue and a series of other incidents such as the withdrawal of Google Search Engine portal from China.

However, through this series of recent events, what the writer of this article observed is that China has neither changed its foreign policy nor has China suddenly become tougher in the international arena than in the past. Such perception is formed when the West becomes worry and concern about the speedy emergence of China and with that concern; the West has developed a sense of loss.

Stand Toward International Community
Let us first take a look at China's reaction at the UN Climate Change Conference held in Copenhagen. At the UN Copenhagen Conference, China only insisted on adhering to the 'Kyoto Protocol' and ascertained the Bali roadmap fundamental principles. China did not come out with any new request. On the contrary, it was the United States and European countries that sought to deny the existing global warming negotiation framework and tried to start the negotiation all over again. Therefore, at that Copenhagen Conference, instead of saying China has taken a tough attitude, it is better to say the western countries have kept changing their minds.

As for the so-called incident whereby Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao did not attend the small scale multilateral summit as invited and thus reflected the arrogance of the Chinese leader, such accusation was indeed baseless. For what has transpired on this incident, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao has already given a good explanation at the press conference held during the 'two sessions.'

On US President Barack Obama's meeting with the Dalai Lama, although the Chinese Government did come out with strong words and statement in protest of the US President's meeting with the Dalai Lama, such statement was only limited to diplomatic protest. China in fact did not take any concrete action toward such protest. In the past, when the previous US presidents met with the Dalai Lama, China had always staged strong words to protest such US action. As such, judging China's traditional stand on the Dalai Lama issue, although President Obama has met with the Dalai Lama, China's position on this has been the same in the past. China did not sudden change its attitude over this issue.

Enacting Taiwan Relations Act
Now let us look at the US arms sales to Taiwan. Some US scholars opine that in the past the United States has also sold arms to Taiwan, but the Chinese Government's reaction toward it has not been as strong as the current one. However, they claimed that for this round of arms sale to Taiwan, the protest from Beijing was extraordinary strong. However such claim cannot stand the test of time. Ever since the United States enacted the 'Taiwan Relations Act' with Taiwan, the United States has engaged in arms sales to Taiwan for more than 50 times. But unlike the recent one, all the past arms sales to Taiwan only involved tens of millions of US dollars or hundreds of millions of US dollars. In other words, the amounts of arms sales to Taiwan were relatively small in the past.

Even with such a small amount of arms sale to Taiwan then, the Sino-US ties in the past 30 years have gone through many rounds of confrontation over the arms sale to Taiwan issue. In 2001, the US arms sale to Taiwan and the fleet conflicts between China and the United States along the South China Sea have added together and resulted in massive and strong anti-US protests by the people in China. As such as compared with the Obama administration's approval of arms sales to Taiwan, the protest coming from Beijing cannot be considered as too harsh and tough. Moreover, President Obama's announcement on arms sales to Taiwan was as high as $60 billion dollars. For such a large amount of arms sales to Taiwan, China's reaction and the people's response to it has not been particularly strong as compared with in the past.

Google Controversy
Another issue that has led the West to support the 'China becoming tougher and more arrogance' theory is based on China's reaction to the Google search engine portal. Some US media commentaries opined that China did not make any compromise with Google and that China has taken a tough attitude in handling the Google case. But in fact, the network filtering policy was not made by China when the Google controversial emerged recently. Several years ago when Google decided to enter the Chinese market, Google has already accepted such network filtering request from China. The initiator of the Google controversy was not China but Google. Therefore, if people interpreted that the Google case as China trying to impose stringent and tougher controls of network filtering on Google alone, such presumption is difficult to convince people.

Now let us look at China's currency RMB exchange rate issue. Some US media believed that in the past when the United States bought up China's RMB exchange rate issue, China would make concessions and compromises; but this time, China has stood firm on the currency issue. As a matter of fact, each year the US Congress would raise the RMB exchange rate issue however, it the past the annual US Treasury report released in April had never regarded China as 'currency manipulator.' This year, speculation that the US Treasury report would put China as currency manipulator was stirred very hot; and for the first time the US Treasury has delayed releasing such report but it did not refuse the request of US Congress in wanting to list China as 'currency manipulator.' Therefore, on the Chinese RMB exchange rate issue, it was the United States especially the US Government that has taken the hard-line attitude and not China.

Comprehensive Response to Rise of China
As explained above, it is difficult for us to observe that China has become tough. We also cannot observe that China's foreign policy has gone through major adjustment. Nevertheless, why has the international community, particularly the western nations think that China is becoming more rude and arrogant? I am afraid this is due to the fact that the rapid rise of China has triggered such external comprehensive response syndrome.

Since the outburst of global financial crisis, the emergence of China has become even more obvious। While China's speedy economic recovery was obvious, the western economy on the other hand, has become stagnant. As a kind of psychological sense of loss, the West has shifted blame to others. Even China has not changed its foreign policy; the economic rise of China will inevitably continue to become the target of western anger. To describe this phenomenon figuratively, it is as what the Chinese proverb says: 'when the tree becomes big, it will attract wind.'

Global Financial Crisis
In fact, in the process of China's emergence, the West has always maintained suspicious, jealous or even a resistant attitude. As such, during different period of time, all sorts of theory on the so-called the collapse of China, the threat of China, the stakeholder responsibility of china has come to the surface.

After the global financial crisis, China has shown stronger signs of recovery. Some people in the West have again come out with worry and concern about what direction a rising China will go. Moreover the international community has also become even more concerned about how the emergent China will play its influential role in the international arena. Therefore, regardless of what China does and what China says, the international community would like to put China's words and deeds under spotlight to magnify them and to come out with their own interpretation.

The influence of a strong China and the influence of a weak China in the international arena are of course different. As such the attention and the impact caused by the words and acts of a strong China are different from a weak China. This is like what will happen to our daily life as a human being. When a celebrity's words and deeds will attract attention and result in wanton speculation, but an ordinary people's words and deeds are rarely of any concern to anybody.

Toward International Spotlight
Therefore, to the emerging China that is moving toward the international spotlight and international platform gradually, when the same words and deeds China in the past might not stir strong reaction from the international community, but the similar words and deeds carried out by China this year might suddenly lead to media speculation. This is an inevitable response syndrome that can happen to China during the rise of China. This can further explain the reason why when the Chinese feel that their own words and actions have not changed, but the West feel that China is getting tougher and become more arrogant.

Nevertheless, this is the 'growing pain' of most major powers when they began to emerge in the international arena. To the speedy emerging China, this growing trouble has resulted in China has to deal with the increasingly complex range of domestic issues, and that at the same time, in the international arena, China will always have to be concerned about the reaction and feelings of the international community toward its words and deeds of China now. From analytical perspective, if China can keep adjusting its conduct and behavior during its speedily emerging process, China can make the international community feels that there is indeed no change in China's foreign policy.

South China Sea Dispute

The recent tension in the China-US relationship over the $6-billion arms sale to Taiwan, or the meeting between the US President Barack Obama and Tibetan spiritual leader Dalai Lama in spite of China's protest, are clear signs, which indicate that competitive aspects in the relationship between the two "ogres" are gaining ascendancy.

However, Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) should never use this card to solve existing problems such as the outstanding disputes in the South China Sea because it is a double bladed sword that could ultimately divide ASEAN member countries.

Effective Measures
To solve its own problems, typically the disputes in the South China Sea, the most effective measures, which ASEAN can employ in correlation with the US-China relations would include two essential points.

However, ASEAN should reinforce and strengthen its solidarity to promote the internal strength of the "whole bunch of chopsticks" as compared to each separate chopstick, both in dialogues and negotiations with the "ogres." The fact that ASEAN countries have ratified the ASEAN Charter is a good indication of confirming the hope to build a strong community of countries in the bloc.

Recent actions of member countries such as enhancing military strength through weapons procurement contracts and obtaining new materials and equipment even though are necessary, it should not be viewed as the main strategy for their external relations. The internal balance of power policy needs to be coordinated closely with a policy that draws and engages big countries in order to establish and protect the balance of power in the region.

Establishing Institutions, Legal Frameworks
Moreover, and perhaps more importantly, ASEAN should continue to establish institutions, legal frameworks with binding rules to identify and encourage the participation of "players" to reduce the possibility of uncontrollable conflicts. One of the hot spots that are causing concerns is the disputes in the South China Sea, which needs to be "managed" by a legal document that can bind more strongly than the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea.

In addition, another strategy that plays an important role in ASEAN engagement policy with the United States and China is to strengthen trade relations with investments in both countries. Trade and investments will be the connection line to link countries, and is the key factor to "pull back" the eager powers because all countries will pay the price if conflicts were to occur.
US-China Ties
The US-China relationship is indeed entering a challenging period, particularly when the international context is witnessing a relative "transfer of power" between these two power centers. As a regional organization in Southeast Asia, ASEAN can ultimately play the role in creating the playing field, influencing the game rules as well as encouraging "players" to participate.

Instead of taking advantage on the competition between China and the United States to serve short-term benefits, ASEAN will benefit much more in the terms of security, politics, trade, and investment, if it can promote unity and maximize the role as an "intermediary" between the two giants of the 21st century.

Beginning of Another Cold War

The Cold War between Russia and the United States ended with the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Thereafter, the United States led a unipolar world, but now the Chinese economic surge in recent times has triggered another Cold War.

Although no such conflict between China and the United States has come to the fore so far that can be termed a cold war, in the wake of the supply of nuclear weapons to the Taliban and the meeting between the Dalai Lama and US President Barack Obama, thereby extending moral support to Tibet, China has started raising its eyebrows.

The island named Formosa was recognized as the real China until the middle of the decade of the eighties and it was only thereafter that China was recognized as a nation in the United Nations. Prior to this, the Taiwanese Government was recognized as the defector Chinese Government. Because of the arms supply to Taiwan by the United States in recent past it became difficult for China to capture Taiwan. This small island, by virtue of its technical revolution emerged as a strong country economically and owing to its growing strength it started browbeating China. Meanwhile, the Tibet issue became a burning topic recently and has become a headache for China.

Aggressive Communism
Ideologically, there is a vast difference between the cold war of today and that of the one in the 1980s. The Cold War between Russia and the United States was created due to the conflict between communism and capitalism. Then Russia regarded communism as a better system of governance for the welfare of the working class, whereas the United States emerged powerful as a country favoring social welfare through capitalism. The two countries were involved in proxy war in Korea, Afghanistan, Germany, and Vietnam and the nuclear bombs and guns were kept ready against each other, but these were not fired out of mutual fear.

Now, China is coming into the Russian position, but China does not have an ideological agenda that was available with Russia because it has isolated itself from the aggressive communism by converting itself as a pro-capitalism country. Its people, not enjoying civil liberties, are living in a captive society and its censorship continues to be a mystery for the rest of the world. Chinese products are being marketed at cheaper rates all across the world, but most of the countries have banned the import of the low-quality Chinese goods or consumers of the world are not attracted to them. Doubtless, China has beaten Germany in terms of exports, yet German companies are still popular throughout the world for the quality of its products and the number of their customers has not registered any decline.

Establishment of Chinese Bases
China is now poised to build a nexus with countries such as North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran that will compete with US companies in these countries. North Korea and Iran have marched forward in the sector of manufacture of nuclear bombs. Other countries have also followed suit. Since Venezuela and Cuba are located in the vicinity of the United States and despite being rival of the United States do not pick courage to face it and probably will not be able to do so in the future also, but they can pave way for the establishment of Chinese bases in their soil.

India can derive maximum benefit from the cold war between China and the United States, but it can suffer also. India is such a country in Asia that is situated close to China and is surrounded by opponent countries. In recent past, India has suffered in terms of image due to its weaknesses in its foreign policy. Nevertheless, India can avoid the loss by bringing about changes in its foreign policy and maintaining an appropriate balance in the newly created cold war. India also is in possession of enough military potential and arms strength.

New Strategy Needed
In order to surround India, China has made excessive use of Pakistan and it can continue to pursue such a strategy in the times ahead. That is why there exists such a class of politicians who do not favor cordial relations with India.

Under the circumstances, India will need to exercise extreme caution and prudence, and simultaneously while giving a befitting reply to the Chinese browbeating it will have to steer clear of the adverse effects of the Cold War.

Wounded US-China Ties Take Time To Heal

The United States has insisted that the sale of arms to Taiwan is in accordance with the established Taiwan Relations Act to provide certain degree of self-defense to Taiwan, whereas Beijing has applied the most extreme use of diplomatic language to accuse the US gross interference in China's internal affairs.

Factors and Obstacles
What triggered added conflict between the two nations came when President Barack Obama intends to arrange a grand reception for Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama. The Chinese Government felt further wounded because it considers the Dalai Lama as the anti-state spoiler. In order to please the Chinese authority, few months ago, President Obama did say he would not receive the Dalai Lama. But now President Obama wants to treat the Dalai Lama as the world's religious elder and honored guest.
The Chinese Government also asked the United States not to treat the Dalai Lama with such high honor. With the absence of other factors and obstacles, President Obama is likely to meet with the Dalai Lama this month before he plans his trip to Indonesia and Australia.
In response, China has also shown its tough stance to confront the US evasive act in attacking China's two most sensitive issues. Not too long ago the world community has seen the leaders from these two countries performed a scene of bi-lateral cooperation and goodwill show. When the China-US relationship sudden takes such a confrontational downturn, no matter how either side tries to mend the crack in friendship in the future, there will always be a scare between China and the United States that can neither be wiped off nor whitewashed.

Sensitive Issues
If President Obama does not want to give in to China's request and proceeds with his plan to first sell arms to Taiwan and then receive the Dalai Lama as prestigious guest, this will imply that the United States ignores the request of China. This will also imply that the United States has taken the stand to ignore the revenge or confrontation that China might take by not wanting to cooperate with the United States on issues pertaining to North Korea, Iran, counterterrorism, economic and trade, military and cultural exchanges. If this is the scenario, then the protest of China over these two sensitive issues is but an empty cannon ball that can make loud sound but cannot reap actual result.
However, if President Obama changes his mind and makes new decision to neither sell arms to Taiwan nor receive the Dalai Lama, China will be the wounded winner, but in the end President Obama and the United States will be the wounded and biggest loser.

Time Ahead
Even if both countries make a concession and make a choice between arms sale to Taiwan and receiving the Dalai Lama, both China and the United States will still be the wounded loser. There is no winner in this round of confrontation. The scare of the wounded US-Sino ties will remain. It will take a long time for the wounded US-China ties to heal. In the coming days, through this wound, some small issues can blow into big US-Sino bilateral disaster.

China-US Relations Back to Old Inharmonious Mode

Barack Obama administration's decision to sell approximately $6.4 billion weapons to Taiwan has incited new tension in the relations between China and the United States. Earlier, Washington had announced several times to impose punitive tariffs on some China-made products; the US ambassador to China openly proclaimed that Obama would definitely meet with Dalai Lama; White House and the Department of State keenly showed their support to Google on its possible move to withdrawal from China market. All these recent issues have gradually changed the atmosphere surrounding China-US relations. The US announcement to sell weapons to Taiwan was in tune with the trend.

Antimissile System
The weapon deals between the United States and Taiwan this time involve three types of weapons, including Black Hawk helicopters, Patriot III antimissile system, and mine dredgers, all are considered weapons of defense. Taiwan has been hoping to acquire F-16C/D Fighting Falcons, but in vain.
The United States did not tell the reason why it rejected to sell the jets to Taiwan, but it was believed because of the concern of China's possible reaction. As what happened in the past, the United States gives a number of reasons to justify the weapons deals, yet they are apparently unacceptable for Beijing. It is unacceptable not because of the factors of how many weapons are sold or how advanced those weapons are, but because Beijing perceives it as being disparaged by the United States.

China's Reactions
Ever since the establishment of diplomatic ties between China and the United States, arms deals between the United States and Taiwan have always been a major disagreement between the two countries. There was a huge power gap between the two countries in the past, thus China's reactions had been "loud thunder, small raindrops" -- vocal complaint but little action, so that it would not cause any damage on its ties with the United States to avoid bigger losses. As far as Washington in concerned, previous US Presidents only made their moves in arms deals when their tenures approached the end, presumably to reduce the impact on China-US relationship. In any case, generally the United States had always been in the dominant position, while China could only react to the actions taken by the former.
The arms deals this time have an obvious difference after taking over the office one year ago, Barack Obama swiftly decided to put the arms deals in practice. This is unusual. Obama has rarely criticized China openly during his election campaign and his first year as the US President. He has been modest and gentle, rational and steady, which had saved the two countries from plunging into tension like what happened every time a new president resumed office in the past. However, the Obama administration attitude toward China has changed drastically since early 2010. Open criticism took over the place of diplomatic negotiation; modesty gave way to intransigence. Obama administration even chose to risk the diplomatic relationship with China by allowing the arms deals become an issue at such an early stage. What has caused the changes?

Decline of Obama's Approval Ratings
If we look at the matter in the context of recent period, internal politics is a major factor. The United States has, yet to recover fully from the economic crisis, where unemployment rate remains high at 10 percent, resulting in up surging public discontent and drastic decline of Obama's approval ratings. Moreover, the Democratic Party suffered a backlash in the Senate special election in Massachusetts. Stunned by the poll results, the White House started to feel the sense of crisis pertaining to the midterm elections. To bring itself up from the unfavorable situation, the Obama administration has to adopt a tough and dominant approach both externally and internally. In relation to China-US ties, it has shown its dominant gesture through trade protection, internet freedom, issue of Dalai Lama and the arms deals with Taiwan.
Nevertheless, it is a big question mark whether being firm and harsh on China will bring any political benefit to the Obama administration. The Chinese Government also faces all sorts of discontent among people and similarly, it also needs popular supports. In the face of the US actions that will undermine its "core interests," the Chinese Government has to take stern measures to react, to avoid losing popular supports. Therefore, in addition to the announcement of suspending military interaction with the United States, the Chinese Government has also imposed sanctions on the US companies involving in the arms deals. Unexpected for some Americans, China has never made such strong reactions in the past.

Expected Change
Like Obama administration, the most important political concern for leaders of China will get the support and approval of the country's people. Since Washington did not bother if its actions would make its bilateral ties with China go sour, China was not obliged to suppress its grievances for Obama's sake. The people's supports are worth everything, even if they have to sacrifice China-US ties, including high-level contacts.
The US midterm elections will be held in November and White House has started to prepare for the elections. Therefore, after the announcement of the arms deals with Taiwan, the United States is expected to change actions in relation to China-US ties. It is difficult to maintain any optimistic expectation on China-US relationship this year. The two countries have gone back to the old inharmonious mode where "all deals entail conflicts."

China-US Bilateral Conflicts

Recently, China-US relations have become rather tense. When the Google controversy is still lingering on, hiccups have raised further over the US arms sales to Taiwan. This is in addition to the on-going disagreements on China-US trade issues. Now that President Obama has announced that he would meet with the Dalai Lama when the later re-visit the United States, the chaotic Sino-US diplomatic ties seems even more confusing to many people. However, in the writer's view, all these Sino-US bilateral conflicts are but normal process between the two countries. We should not over interpret and over amplify the contradiction between China and the United States.
Trade, Taiwan, and Tibet are the "3T" problems that have accompanied the China-US relationship as long as we can remember. If we do not observe the existence of these "3T" problems in the dealings between China and the United States, the absence of them can contribute to abnormal China-US ties.

Taiwan, Tibet, Trade Disputes
The "3T" issues can best reflect the China-US relationship. In trade dealing, the two countries have developed an interdependency phenomenon that both nations have to rely and support each other based on their respective national interest. It was because of this trade factor that the Chinese Government was willing to help President Barack Obama's "New Deal" by coming forward to assist in the US debt problem in time of need in 2009 since both countries could see the shadow of each other in this bilateral trade ties. However, at the same time, both countries cannot avoid the ongoing disputes in the China-US trade balance.

Cross-Straits Relationship
As for the Taiwan factor, although China and the United States' position on Taiwan is like a "seesaw game"; and although each round of US arms sale to Taiwan would inevitably lead to rising conflicts between the two countries, but the arms sale to Taiwan issue has become a more and more low key issue. This is in addition to the fact that the cross-straits relationship has become better and better as time goes by. As we take a closer look at the Tibetan issue, it remains a fact that the influence of the Dalai Lama who is at dying age has weaken to the degree that the Dalai Lama can only depend on engaging frequent visits to foreign lands in order to provoke China. However, the hard-line attitude of Beijing toward Tibet has also led the Western major powers to become more cautious in wanting to interfere with the Tibetan issue in China. This was also the reason why in 2009 President Obama has avoided meeting up with the Dalai Lama in order to consider the feeling of China. As for the Google controversy that has led to war of words between China and the United States, in the writer's opinion, the reason that prompted US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in wanting to launch the so called "network diplomacy" war globally is but her "smart diplomacy" diplomatic game advocated by the Obama administration.
After all, Barack Obama is the US President. He is a Democrat US President. In dealing with issues relating to the press freedom, human rights and religious freedom, President Obama's criticism on China over these issues will certainly have his own value judgment and personal perspective. We should not take such criticism as surprises.
Moreover, we should also understand that the national situation and condition between China and the United States differ greatly. When the United States suffered a once in a century economic and financial crisis, it is understandable that the fight for self interest among the different US groups from the US Congress to labor unions and to different sectors in the US society can become complicated. All these complications have added pressure to the US Government. As a result, since the political ideology of China and the United States differs vastly, and since China and the United States have treated each other as mutually important trading partner, China has logically become an outlet for the various US opinion groups to vent their anger and grievances. As a US President, President Obama has to make use of the "3T" issues, the Dalai Lama and Google controversy as his effective strategy to ease the domestic grievances as well as to ease his political pressure and to divert the existing domestic contradictions elsewhere.

Changes in US Political Pattern
2010 is the year the United States will carry out its midterm congressional election. If we say the US people simply do not care about the China-US ties at the 2008 presidential election, then the China-US relationship will become the focus of attention for the US people in the coming mid-term election. To the United States 2009 was the "crisis year." During that crisis year, the US Government and US media have joined hands to create the concept of G2 (US and China) to rule in the world affairs. Although China has never acknowledged the G2 concept, but this G2 concept has already misled the US people into believing that China is the main rival country for the United States. A commentary in the latest issue of the "Washington Watch" said: "If the unemployment problem remains serious in the United States, and if the US people continue to hear good economic news coming from China, the negative emotions of US voters toward China will definitely go up." In this context, if President Obama does not take the advantage of the present anti-China public opinion that exists in the US society and play along with it, the Republican Party will take advantage of this issue to work against President Obama. In the end, the Democratic Party might end up losing the superior dominant status in both the Senate and House in the US Congress after the midterm congressional election.

Aggressive Anti-China Strategy
For the series of disturbances that happened recently between China and the United States, the Chinese leaders, the Chinese media and the Chinese people should treat them rationally and take careful approach to respond to them wisely. In response to President Osama's over-intimate China-US ties in 2009, it is time for the Chinese officials and Chinese people to mentally prepare for President Obama's new thought on China and observe his deeds and words more carefully. After all, Chinese officials and Chinese people should not forget that the China-US bilateral relationship is not really a partnership relationship. When the US officials described the China-US ties in a Chinese idiom in Chinese language as "feng yu tong zhou" or the so called "when two are in the same boat, the two parties will have to sail through wind and rain through thick and thin" it is but a diplomatic jargon. In reality, the most important aspect of China-US bilateral relationship is more referring the political game both countries have to fight and win in the long run.
From the high profiled US-China G2 doctrine to the flame of the G2 gradually died off, and from Sino-US disputes in Copenhagen to the Sino-US quarrels over trade disputes, it is clear that the US attitude toward China has evolved. The previous un-respect and contempt sytle of anti-China sentiment has become the present furious type of anti-China sentiment. The United States wants China to assume more global responsibility but China has objected. On the surface, it might seem that the focus of the US anti-China strategy remains at hitting the "3T" issues. However, in term of purpose and motive, this current anti-China strategy launched by the US Government has taken a new twist. It has become a phenomenon that the higher and more aggressive the United States tries to launch anti-China strategy on China, the more counter balance effect in strength and power of the two big nations can emerge. In this regard, the more frequent the United States executes its anti-China measure on China, the more China can grow stronger each day thus reflecting the weakening of the US power in the international community.

Obama Shows Diplomatic Flair in Handling International Situation

When the Dalai Lama was in the United States, President Barack Obama did not receive the visiting Tibetan spiritual leader. But one cannot interpret that President Obama had refused to meet with and exchange view with the Dalai Lama.

President Obama was just waiting for a more appropriate time to meet with him only. The ability of President Obama in using this old but still effective diplomatic skill in handling US-China diplomatic exchange has reflected the reality that the new US President has mastered some of the subtle diplomatic skills in handling international affairs and situation.

Important and Bigger Ideas
In November, President Obama will meet with Chinese leader Hu Jintao in Singapore. Following that meeting at the APEC Summit, President Obama knows that he will have more important and bigger ideas he wants to discuss with the Chinese leader. China has long declared to the world community that the Dalai Lama is a violent element who aims to separate Tibet from China, but President Obama, his Democratic Party, as well as the people in the United States have their own judgment about the Dalai Lama that can be very different from China's perspective.

However, when the Dalai Lama issue comes out at the diplomatic level, the judgment on the Dalai Lama has to be put on a different perspective. As such, when President Obama needs to talk to Chinese leader Hu Jintao, President Obama of course knows that he cannot upset Hu Jintao by meeting with the Dalai Lama during the period close to his meeting with the Chinese leader. President Obama knows that by not seeing the Dalai Lama, he at least can temporarily avoid having unnecessarily argument with China over the Dalai Lama issue.

President Obama understands perfectly well that although most of the past US presidents did receive the Dalai Lama or did enjoy the friendship with the Tibetan spiritual leader, it is not too convenience for him to meet with the Dalai Lama in his capacity as the US President now. Although President Obama did not receive the Dalai Lama, he has nevertheless allowed his Democrat leaders, leaders in the political circle and the local community to extend warm friendship with the visiting Dalai Lama.

President Obama knows that the Dalai Lama has too many friends in his Democratic Party as well as his rival Republican Party. As such when the Dalai Lama was in the United States, the visiting schedule of the Dalai Lama has proceeded as planned. In retrospect, President Obama has followed French President Nicolas Sarkozy's method in handling the controversial Dalai Lama issue to extend his friendship to the Dalai Lama in this indirect manner.

Dalai Lama's visit to France
Dalai Lama visited France in 2008. Prior to the Dalai Lama's visit to France, China had already given stern warning to the world community. China made clear that whichever countries received and made contact with the Dalai Lama, China would consider these countries as not respecting the wish of Beijing. Since Sarkozy wanted to go to China to attend the Beijing Olympics, Sarkozy knew that he could not afford to provoke China. So, when the Dalai Lama visited France in 2008, the French President found an excuse not to meet with the Dalai Lama. But after Sarkozy finished his important dealing with China and during a considerable low diplomatic period when France did not have major issue to deal with China, President Sarkozy did find an appropriate date and time to warmly welcome the Dalai Lama to France and compensated the temporarily broken friendship with the Tibetan spiritual leader.

Friendship Between Dalai Lama and US Political Circle
Such a diplomatic approach to see and meet with controversial figure at an appropriate date and time is simply and workable. As such President Obama has decided to copy such diplomatic pattern. We trust that after President Obama has settled what he wanted to discuss with the Chinese leader, he will pick a suitable date, perhaps during winter season, to invite the Dalai Lama to Washington for a visit. Yet there are many variable factors in international affairs.

Whether President Obama can find a suitable time to meet with the Dalai Lama will, to a great degree, depend on the US dealing with China. But since the United States and China will have frequent exchanges, President Obama might not have the time to receive the Dalai Lama. But even if President Obama puts his dealing with China above the Dalai Lama, we trust President Obama will not behave like the Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou who made effort to bar the Dalai Lama's entry into Taiwan. President Obama will show his diplomatic flair to allow the friendship between Dalai Lama and the US political circle and civil society to continue.

India's Firm Reply To China's Aggressive Attitude

The objection that China has raised over Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh's Arunachal Pradesh visit is completely improper and an illegitimate act. The Indian Government has given a befitting reply by rejecting it outright. Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of India. The people of this state are an inseparable part of the Indian democracy.

The threatening manner in which China has expressed its displeasure is an obstinate act of interfering into the internal matters of an independent and sovereign country. We are free to travel anywhere in our country. Our guests are also free to travel anywhere within our borders. China cannot instruct us where we can go and where we cannot.

Maintaining Peace on Border
This is not the first time that China has expressed its displeasure over the prime minister's visit. In 2008 also, it had expressed regret at calling Arunachal Pradesh as Indian territory. Earlier in 1987, China had taken control of a far flung border post in Arunachal Pradesh. It has illegally occupied 43,180 sq km of Indian territory.

On contrary, it accuses India of illegally occupying 90,000 sq km of its territory in Arunachal Pradesh. Talks are going on between the countries over the border dispute, and both countries are committed to maintaining peace on the border. Undoubtedly, the issue is very complicated. Until now, 13 rounds of talks have been completed, but the dispute stands where it was.

Honoring Line of Actual Control
Although India and China both have agreed not to use power and honor the Line of Actual Control as long as the border dispute is not settled, still apprehensions of conflict with China have been raised from time-to-time. For the past some time, China has been exhibiting its aggressive stance again. Though there is dominance of moderate leaders in China's government, its foreign policy is still on the old track, the foundation of which was laid by Mao Zedong. No matter where Dalai Lama goes, China always raises objection. If any leader goes to Taiwan, it becomes displeased. If anyone goes to Arunachal Pradesh, it becomes incensed. This has become its habit, but nobody would be afraid of going into the disputed territory.

In coming November, Dalai Lama is going to travel to Arunachal Pradesh. Even if China protests against it, the Indian Government would not stop him. All mutual disputes between India and China could only be sorted out through dialogue and not by exhibiting aggressive behavior. Both countries should sit together for this, so that it does not affect our long-term relations.

China's Claims
China's claim on a part of Arunachal Pradesh for years cannot be overlooked. But it has never been so offensive before. At one time, it had even started issuing visas to people of Arunachal Pradesh. It is, therefore, imperative for India to find out the reasons for this sudden extreme attitude. Can there be any other latent reason behind it, instead of the border dispute? Even otherwise, the border dispute had reached a deadlock long ago.

India has been accusing China of illegal occupation of a part of Jammu and Kashmir. As against this, China has been charging India of occupying 90,000 sq km of its territory. It must be also borne in mind that China alone is responsible for the stalemate in this old border dispute. Several rounds of talks have been held to solve it, but so far no plans have been exchanged.

China has most certainly experienced the strengthening of trade relations between the two countries. It is equally aware of the fact that tension in diplomatic relations might jeopardize its trade. Could it then be all set to increase this tension knowingly? In view of past experience it is necessary for India to tell China directly that it is not only embittering the relationship between the countries by this unfriendly behavior that is also ruining the atmosphere in Asia. It must also beware of foreign affairs experts like Natwar Singh who have suddenly started taking China's side. They are likely to prove harmful to India.

India's Reply to China's Aggression
Although belated, India has made the right move by showing firmness against China's aggressive attitude. Objection raised on Chinese interference in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir [PoK] is also totally justified. The earlier hesitation to replying to China in its own language is inexplicable. Is it not strange that the prime minister had described Chinese incursions into Arunachal Pradesh and Laddakh as a creation of the media? Surprisingly enough, when objections were raised against some projects China was working on in PoK, the Chinese President stated that his country would continue participating in them. India should actually have lodged a protest when China had started taking interest in Pakistan's projects.

It is difficult to say for certain right now how this neighboring country will react to India's sharp riposte. Nevertheless, India must try to find out the reasons for China's sudden aggressive stand. It not only causes concern but is also surprising.