Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Effort To Make Middle East Nuclear Free To Be Futile

It appears that US President Barack Obama is still committed to his 'ambition' to make this world free from any form of nuclear weapon threat। It is not enough to host the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington in April 2010, this time Obama's momentum turns to the continuation of 'goodwill' effort in Middle East.

The United States is having negotiation with Egypt to woo the latter's support in order to make Middle East a nuclear free area। The report also mentions that the US wants all Arabic countries in that region, including Turkey, Iran and its strong ally -- Israel, to be 'free' from possession of any form of nuclear arms. While stressing that a regional meeting will be held to discuss the matter, the discussion between the US and Egypt about the issue will be continued in New York next month when the Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is held for one month. Our question here is, will the effort undertaken by the US succeed when the political and security situation in Middle East remains uncertain?

Some Conditions

From a positive point of view, the effort to make Middle East a nuclear free zone can succeed provided the following conditions are fulfilled:

1। All countries in the region concerned such as the Arabic countries, Turkey, Iran and the US's strong ally, Israel, agree to openly and officially 'announced' the 'actuality' of their possession of any form of nuclear or destructive weapons;

2। All countries concerned must agree to have an agreement or sign any form of agreement aims at achieving the abovementioned objective;

3। All countries concerned must agree to cooperate to conceive the best method to 'reduce' or 'eradicate' any form of nuclear weapons;

4। All countries concerned agree to cooperate especially with the United States and United Nations to ensure the remnants of the existing nuclear weapons are safe and prevented from falling into the hands of irresponsible 'quarters', such as international terrorist groups;

5। All countries concerned agree on the concept of using nuclear for 'peace' only.

In fact, the endeavor to make the world, including Middle East as a nuclear free zone can be considered as something 'stale', not because it is not good for global peace, but because the processes that are going to take place will be carried out by those interested in the concept of 'global peace and security'। It will cause more 'losses', because at the end of it, there will be 'invisible hands' attempting to mess up all these efforts of goodwill. This scenario often makes us wonder, are those world superpowers like the US genuinely and 'sincerely' want to see peace in the world. Or, is there any deception hidden behind all these efforts? Perhaps, this is the most effective way to 'dispose of' nuclear weapons possessed by Iran and other Islamic countries?

Until today, no development can convince us about the effectiveness of Obama's commitment to make Middle East a nuclear free zone, besides the 'oral agreement' between countries in that region, with the exception of Israel।

As we know, Israel will always deny it possesses hundreds of nuclear and destructive weapons (including chemical and biological weapons), in view of its policy of 'deliberate nuclear ambiguity', even though an official report from the US Congress Office of Technology Assessment published in August 1993 states that Israel is 'suspected' to have the capacity of chemical weapons and biological weapon program that has never been explained।

Whereas the US often sets the condition that any positive development including development in relation to the issue of nuclear free zone fully depends on the positive development that must be achieved in the series of peace talk between the Arabic world and Israel।

Positive Development Expected
Since the peace talk between the Arabic world and Israel is described as a 'sore' in Middle East, it is not expected to bring any positive development at least in nearest time। Therefore, we can already conclude that the effort taken by US to make Middle East a nuclear free zone will become another futile and time-wasting bid. Meanwhile, its close ally, Israel will remain 'impenetrable' under the protection of hundreds of nuclear weapons, most of which are stored in Dimona; while the region of Middle East will remain in the status quo.

Having realized of this reality, perhaps Obama can start to think of a 'plan B' to deal with any 'bad' possibilities that he will encounter in his effort to make Middle East a nuclear weapon free zone. Nevertheless, whatever 'plan' he is going to put forth, it will certainly 'strengthen' the status of the US and Israel in Middle East. Could it be a dilemma for a Nobel Peace Prize laureate like Obama to choose between being an 'idealist' or 'realist'?

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