Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Repercussions of 9/11

The events marking the 9/11 anniversary this year have a special significance for Afghanistan, India and the United States for several reasons. Some of the major are presented to understand the objectives of the United States.

First, it was after this fateful day eight years ago that the Pakistani military decided to carry out a massive operation against the Taliban in Swat. The notorious terrorists were either captured or killed and now the military is ready to fight Al-Qaeda in Waziristan as well.

Internal Threats to Pakistan,
This big advancement outlines the reality of the internal threats to Pakistan as a consequence of the US attack on Afghanistan. Second, the Pakistani Government, the opposition, the military and the media have finally agreed on the fact that this is Pakistan's war not America's and that this war has become compulsory to mitigate the possible threats to the country even though it might not guarantee success if used in isolation.

Third, the Pakistani military has accepted this public opinion that India is no longer Pakistan's enemy even if it remains a permanent threat to Pakistan's security. Thus, it is necessary to continue the peace process that was started by Nawaz Sharif and was carried forward by former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf.

The fourth reason is that the Obama administration has identified the need to look for a way to end the conflict that is not only related to actors in Afghanistan but also seeks to bring an end to hostilities between Pakistan and India, and Pakistan and Afghanistan.

This supports Pakistan's viewpoint that for durable peace and stability in Afghanistan, it is necessary for Afghanistan to at least maintain friendly ties with Pakistan politically or else she should be willing to fully cooperate with Pakistan.

New Political Strategy
The fifth reason is that the Americans have finally reached this conclusion that the new political strategy to expand the scope of legitimacy in Kabul is as important as the military operation to stop the resistance.

To prove this contest right, the strategy to make use of this year's presidential elections was not ignored as evident from accusations of massive vote rigging and fraud on the Afghan President Hamid Karzai. This will make it even harder to achieve stability in Afghanistan. The United States will become more dependent on Pakistan to draw the Taliban's attention toward devising a feasible formula to end the conflict. This would be a more realistic way forward for Afghanistan as compared to the military strategy, which was dependent solely on Karzai.

Support for Afghan War
The sixth reason is that the support for Afghan War amongst the American public is weakening. Like the European nations, majority of Americans are demanding the withdrawal of their soldiers. The Obama administration is looking for ways to achieve several victories in Afghanistan by next year's Congressional elections. This mission could not be achieved without a stable Pakistan and full support for her strategic interests as Pakistan cannot separate her Jihadi elements to be used against India from Al-Qaeda or the Taliban.

Pakistan had to pay a huge price in the form of Pakistani Taliban for this unfinished business. Likewise, the United States cannot assert this viewpoint that the Taliban and Al-Qaeda are one and they pose a real threat to it. The Pakistani Taliban and other jihadi groups in the country are Pakistan's problem; they have nothing to do with America.

In fact, Pakistan and America would only need to work hand in hand against the Taliban until they break the ties between Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. To separate the Taliban from Al-Qaeda, the Taliban must be given a part in the government in the future. This is the ultimate solution to the Afghan problem.

Attaining Regional Peace
The seventh reason is that India is being asked to play an important role in attaining regional peace. India's secret war against Pakistan in Afghanistan and Balochistan, which was started to bring a halt to Pakistani intrusion in Kashmir, is closing its end. So the sooner India resumes the unconditional dialogues with Pakistan, the better it is.

This should not be a problem for the Congress-led UPA Indian Government as it has the capability to look into the future and strengthen Pakistan's hands in her fight against extremism both at home and abroad.

Spirits of 9/11
If 9/11 does not remain an issue for anybody, the next 12 months would be extremely crucial. Each and every party would definitely have to make compromises. The United States would have to create circumstances that bring the Taliban's representation back to Kabul. Pakistan would have to realize that some of its assets have become her liability, which needs to be taken care of.

India would have to realize that you reap what you sow and that the plans with a zero sum game are no longer viable. Now she needs to solve her issues with Pakistan through the give and take principle. Otherwise the spirits of 9/11, which have not been dead for very long, would come alive again to spread chaos in the region.

Fresh and Better Understanding
Former Pakistani President Musharraf's decision to become George W. Bush's right hand was mostly correct. However, both of them did not trust each other and kept playing games, which led to destruction. That is the reason the new Governments of the US and Pakistan must unite and try to gain a fresh and better understanding of the ground facts.

The sooner Karzai's Afghanistan and Manmohan Singh's India become part of this new arrangement, the better it is.

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