The second presidential election in Afghanistan was held recently amid bomb explosions, raids on poling stations, bloody clashes with the occupation US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces. Could it be possible for the candidates to organize election processions, meetings, and establish contacts with the voters in the shadow of the bayonets of the collectively 300,000 police personnel and Army of the puppet Karzai administration, including 100,000 NATO forces? The general of the US occupation military had already determined the winning candidate in the elections and have planned for "positive results." Tactics of force, threats, and forgery have been used and its open proof is that the vote counting has not been done yet, but Hamid Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah have announced their success. They claimed to have secured 50 percent votes.
Voting Pattern
Statistics are dry and tedious; however, sometime state amazing story. A look at the recent presidential elections in Afghanistan once again reveals the same. The election data tells us story about the effects that the Afghanistan's presidential election and its results would pose to Afghanistan and the region. Votes polled in these elections were 16,094,810. Out of these, Hamid Karzai obtained 9,356,228 votes. The closest opponent of Hamid Karzai, Dr Abdullah Abdullah, stood second securing 3,766,649 votes. Another presidential candidate, Bashar Dost got 5,002,421 votes. After Bashar Dost, Ashraf Ghani comes next who succeeded in obtaining 486,889 votes.
These are the basic type of figures that makes it easy to dig out the result that the democracy rehearsal that continued in Afghanistan over the past a few years as well as people who desired to gain Afghanistan's leadership through election process had not jumped into the elections just to meet their desire, but they had done home work for this.
Polling of more than 16 million votes and obtaining more than 9.3 millions by Hamid Karzai clearly indicates that the political system in Afghanistan is strengthening its roots than the tribal system and the militancy. This is a very positive situation. Obviously, if roots of political process and democracy are getting stronger in Afghanistan then it will definitely have positive effects on our tribal areas as well.
Another aspect of these elections is the ratio of ballots voted in different parts of Afghanistan. A review of Pukhtun areas reflects this fact that 5,964,105 votes were polled in these areas. The number of votes polled in Tajik area is 3,606,870. In Hazara area, 2,394,753 votes were polled. Whereas, the number of votes polled in Uzbek area is 1,946,520. These figures reflect different kinds of tendencies.
Recalling the Afghan jihadist era reminds us names of several groups and parties. Two parties were very famous, including the Hizb-e Islami as well as the Jamiat-e-Islami. In addition, several active and effective parties were present in Afghanistan as well. These parties were active at two different fronts -- political and militancy fronts. The reputation that these parties had gained internationally was basically because of the armed struggle against the erstwhile Soviet Union. However, these, in fact, were just the political parties that were founded during the Zahir Shah's and then the Sardar Daud's time. These parties wanted reforms in the political system of the country. Those parties initiated their activities in a political and democratic style. However, war was imposed on them in the following era. These parties also faced miseries fell on them. Even the militancy became their identity. Until the Taliban era, the basic role of these parties was of militancy. Although, these parties were present when the environment had totally changed after the 9/11; however, the changed circumstances pushed them backward from the scene.
Usually, the Taliban are held liable for the retaliatory militancy activities that are taking place following the US arrival in Afghanistan. This is the truth, but not the whole truth. The entire truth is this that the parties from the past that are known to us from the time of the Soviet Union invasion on Afghanistan are fully involved in backing this armed struggle. Given the latest situations, the circle of activities of these parties appears to be limited and they are confined to militancy only.
In the recent election, absence of these parties is greatly felt and the figures indicate that the sectarian division of Afghanistan has deepened because of their disappearance from the scene. During the elections, the detail of vote casting with reference to sectarian division is before us. This reveals that element appears to be of decisive nature. However, the disclosure of number of votes to us reveals this reality to us that different areas and region are now representing the political parties.
Sectarian and Ethnic Units
Afghanistan has been divided into several sectarian and ethnic units. However, out of these, the two dominating units are Pushtoon and Tajiks. In the past, the two big parties were founded based on these units, which represented them. However, these parties also attempted to extend their political basis and, for this purpose, centuries old manners of the founders were followed. For example, Gulbadin Hikmat Yar got his daughter married to a Tajik. Similarly, at one point, he nominated a Tajik instead of a Pushtoon when he had the opportunity to nominate the prime minister [the president in Afghanistan]. Incidents of similar type have also been attributed to some other leaders. These efforts were wise attempts to keep Afghanistan united and intact. Following the departure of the Soviet Union from Afghanistan, it was realized that perhaps it might not be possible to keep the country intact. The same kind of threat was once again felt after the arrival US forces. Although, it was tried to counteract against this concerns by forming alliance between Hamid Karzai and the Northern Alliance. However, in absence of some binding force, it was thought that lest Afghanistan does not fall apart. The shadows of the same threat realized in the results of the recent election and so were the intended efforts to control it. This means that the voters have accomplished responsibility that was carried out by political parties in the past. The votes obtained by different candidates substantiate this assumption.
Undoubtedly Pushtoon and Tajik were two main wrestlers of the recent elections wrestling and, obviously, their constituency came into being by their ethnic affiliation. However, the two main candidates namely Hamid Karzai and Dr Abdallah Abdallah have strengthen Afghanistan by acquiring votes of the other race in addition to votes from the race that they belonged to. From this context, figures are very interesting. The winning candidate, Hamid Karzai, has obtained majority of votes from Pushtoon and Hazara areas. The remaining 30 percent votes of these areas were divided among the other candidates, but Tajik candidate, Dr Abdallah Abdallah, took more votes than the others.
The ratio in Tajik areas appear to be better than this where Dr Abdallah Abdallah, although obtained 10 percent more votes than what Hamid Karzai obtained in Pushtoon and Hazara areas like he obtained 80 percent votes in Tajik areas. However, Hamid Karzai obtained 5 percent more votes viz 15 percent from these areas than what Dr Abdallah Abdallah obtained from Pushtoon and Hazara areas.
This indicates that Hamid Karzai was not disappointed in Tajik areas and Dr Abdallah Abdllah was also not disappointed in Pushtoon and Hazara areas. This is what strengthens Afghanistan's unity.
Taking this opportunity, let us talk about some additional figure that Hamid Karzai has succeeded in obtaining 65 percent votes in Uzbek areas. Although, the role by Afghanistan's ideological parties in these elections does appear. However, the results of recent elections demonstrate that people of Afghanistan want to keep their country intact. Because these results reflect a glimpse of the mindset of those political parties that had played role to keep Afghanistan united in the past. This also indicates that, if the circumstances ever change, those parties will also be able to gain reputation among the masses.
Taliban Factor
Another aspect these elections is peaceful completion of the elections. The Taliban had threatened that they would not let the elections be peaceful. At that occasion suicide attacks took place as well as incidents of chopping fingers occurred. This loss was not as much as it takes place at the elections time in other countries in the world.
The Taliban stormed three polling stations in the western province of Herat, set a building on fire and destroyed all ballot papers. This was reported by the district governor. The Taliban were pushed back in Kandoz when they stormed a polling station. Tow suicide bombers were killed in Gardez. Gen Mohammad Zahir Azimi of the defense ministry claimed this.
What would happen after that? This is the question in the mind of everybody. Obama is not in his daydream, for it he pitted Shiite, Sunni and Kurds against one another in Iraq and established a coalition government, while remaining in the background. In other words, the United States would continue its hold on the military bases and it has full control on oil. Similarly, it will set up a remote-controlled government in Afghanistan too. However, the first point is that stability could not return to Iraq and it cannot be brought over there, too. The reason is that the United States has started disintegrating the country by dividing it among Shiite, Sunni and Kurds. Moreover, it has removed the Ba'ath Party from the scene and paved the way for the Iranian intervention. This move will intensify tension among the Arab and non-Arab (Iran).
Emerging Situation
Similarly, the United States intends to establish supremacy of the non-Pashtuns in Afghanistan by breaking their (Pashtuns') power. Therefore, it would never want to bring any Tajik or Uzbek into power. It has to place some Pashtun on the seat of the head for just show. It wants to appoint him on the post of president as a hostage besieged by Tajik, Uzbek, and Hazara tribes.
Does this reveal that militancy in Afghanistan is weakening? There are no signs of it. However, as claimed by the US and British commando, the militancy is getting stronger and the allied forces are at the verge of defeat. This means that retaliating forces of Afghanistan are bringing change to the strategy. This situation is very encouraging for Pakistan. Comparatively, having a look at the latest defeat to the Pakistani Taliban's reveals that peace chances in tribal areas of Pakistani brightened.
The Afghanistan government’s failure to deliver has led to the resurgence of the Taliban in most parts of the country. There has not been enough development activity to prevent the Taliban from remaining a force to be reckoned with. Karzai’s alliance with warlords like Abdur Rashid Dostum for winning the elections may further embolden the forces of instability. Karzai may come back to power, exploiting his Pashtun background and US support, but the country will have to pay a heavy price for his desperate acts, though guided by political expediency.
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