UPA Returns to Power

It was said of Mexican generals that as military strategists they were always fighting the last war. In 2009, India’s 15th Lok Sabha election saw television commentators and political analysts too busy predicting the last election. Indeed, the calculations of the opposition parties, including the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the CPI(M) and a gaggle of other regional forces from the AIADMK to the Samajwadi Party (SP), were based on the 2009 election replicating the trend of the 2004 election and devolving into a conglomeration of State contests.Politics and the public have a way of surprising pundits. While State identities and local issues and compelling personalities did play a role, the Lok Sabha election that has just concluded was underpinned by a national mood. What the Congress has won is not quite a national mandate — perhaps, even it wasn’t quite ready for it — but sometimes resembles it more closely than anything in a long, long time, certainly since the NDA victory of 1999.Broadly, there are three sets of winners and losers in this election. The trend they collectively indicate sometimes seems contradictory. However, the message that the voter is sending at the end of the day is fairly categorical — and one that will please anybody who believes India is more than just the sum of its parts.

The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) has raced to an unexpected decisive victory in what was billed as one of the most unpredictable Lok Sabha elections. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was clearly the man of the moment as he scripted history by becoming the first Prime Minister after Jawaharlal Nehru to come back to power after completing a full term in office.

The grand old party did exceptionally well on its own as it crossed the 200 mark while the incumbent ruling combine was comfortably placed at over 250 in the 545-member Lok Sabha. The UPA’s estranged allies like the Left parties, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) were humbled even as the main opposition party, the BJP finished at a low of 116 seats.

Manmohan Singh’s Personal Image
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s personal image as a man of learning and integrity and the electorate’s preference for stability proved to be key factors in these elections. Realising that he enjoys a groundswell of goodwill, Congress President Sonia Gandhi and Nehru-Gandhi scion Rahul Gandhi went out of their way to repeatedly project him for the top job, thus converting this election into a Presidential contest. BJP leader LK Advani’s personal attacks against Manmohan Singh only ended up improving his popularity ratings.

The fear of a fractured mandate with disparate small political parties calling the shots at the Centre also appears to have scared the electorate, which has shown a preference for national parties, although nobody is writing off the regional parties.

Given present line-up, the Congress is comfortably placed to form the Government with its pre-poll allies though it is a few seats short of the majority mark. It no longer requires the Communists or its former partners or even the Samajwadi Party to muster a simple majority in the Lok Sabha. Well aware that it is in a position to call the shots, the Congress has already indicated that it will tap Independent members and smaller like-minded parties like the Janata Dal (SD), Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and Assam’s AUDF for support to make up for the shortfall instead of seeking support of the Fourth Front . However, the Congress continued to be soft towards Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, whose Janata Dal (United), swept the State.

Admitting privately that they are more comfortable dealing with Nitish Kumar as he represents the classical Lohia school of thought, Congress leaders said the Bihar leader will have to take a call on whether he wants to continue with his dependence on the Bharatiya Janata Party or branch out on his own.

While attention will turn to the nitty gritty of government formation in the coming days, the Congress was busy savouring its victory today, made possible by its massive gains in states like Kerala, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh and its unexpected performance in the other Hindi heartland states of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister YSR Reddy was the real game changer as he was able to improve on his tally of 29 seats even though all other political parties were ranged against him.

Congress Comeback in Uttar Pradesh
The party’s surprise comeback in Uttar Pradesh with 21 seats, where the Congress has been in the wilderness for over two decades, has proved to be a real morale booster for the grand old party as it is seen as the beginning of its revival in the Hindi heartland.

What is even more heartening for the Congress is that the party is gradually regaining its old base with the minorities and the upper castes veering towards it. The UP performance is, however, a personal victory for All-India Congress Committee(AICC) general secretary Rahul Gandhi who had argued that isntead of going in for an unequal alliance, the Congress should fight on its own.

In contrast to the Congress, the BJP suffered serious reverses as its tally has plummeted from 138 to 112 seats. However, all is not lost for the saffron party as it has held its own in Chhattisgarh and improved in Karnataka.

Similarly, the DMK-Congress combine managed to minimize its losses in Tamil Nadu where the rival Jayalalitha-led AIADMK front was projected to sweep the polls banking on the emotive Sri Lankan Tamils issue.

Setback for Kingmaker
It is noticeable that one politician who has received a severe drubbing in the elections is Nara Chandrababu Naidu. His Telugu Desam Party has been defeated in the elections to the Lok Sabha and the Andhra Pradesh State Assembly.

Only the other day, he was considered the most important politician in the post-poll scenario. His next move was watched by the Congress, the BJP and their allies. Apparently, both the national parties were too happy to have him on their side but Naidu was keeping everybody guessing.

Naidu reportedly said, “new friendships, new groupings and new polarisation will emerge in the days to come”. Apparently, he was inclined towards the yet-to-be born Third Front. His preference was the Third Front rather than joining the BJP-led NDA.

He has been quoted as saying that rumours were spread that TDP had no option but to move closer to the NDA. This was started by the BJP because its leaders knew that “they on their own are not going to be in a position to form the Government”.

Clearly, Naidu knows both the BJP and the Congress very closely. He was an important ally of the BJP in the NDA.As for the Congress, he began his political career in that party as an Youth Congress activist.

The election results have, however, changed the political scenario. Though he fought a bitter battle with the Congress, even by forming a “Grand Alliance” with the TDP, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi, the CPI and the CPM, his strategy to trounce the Congress has failed.

End of Political Instability
By winning the elections to the 15th Lok Sabha, the Congress-led UPA has certainly pulled the nation out of the jaws of political instability that was worrying most countrymen all these months.

The people have also voted for continuity which is essential for tackling enormous domestic and external challenges facing India as also pulling up the economy caught in a slowdown.

Essentially, the vote speaks highly of the maturity of Indian voters who have certainly opted for the policies which, despite odds and vagaries of coalition politics, the UPA Government led by Manmohan Singh followed during the past five years.

In the process, the electorate has also outrightly rejected the negative policies followed by the Left from one end and the Hindutva brigades of the BJP from the other. Their rejection seeks to underscore the fact that the real India — which neither the Left parties, nor the BJP has tried to understand — believes in liberal democracy which can take care of the common man’s daily bread as well as the need to push economic growth which can create more jobs as well as build an India of the 21st century.

The 2009 General Elections Results

Congress: 205, BJP: 116, SP: 22, BSP: 21, JD(U): 20, AIADMK: 9, DMK: 18, PMK: 0, MDMK: 1, TDP: 9, RJD: 4, LJP: 0, NCP: 9, TMC: 19, Left: 24, JD(S): 3, BJD: 14, INLD: 2, RLD: 6, TRS: 2, AGP: 1, Akali Dal: 4, NC: 3, PDP: 0. Others: 20