Iran’s Space Programme

Any space launcher is in effect a potential Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) that could reach anywhere on earth with very small changes in their guidance systems. Much like other states that have benefited militarily from improvements in their space programmes, Iran is also using the development of its space programme to improve its conventional Weapon of Mass Destruction (WMD) delivery systems.

Iranian officials often discuss space and missile developments simultaneously, perhaps indicating the parallel nature of the programmes. They have openly admitted that the Shahab missile system has been used as the basis for Iran’s space launch vehicle. In 2005, Brigadier General Ahmad Wahid, Chairman of Iran’s Aerospace Industries Organisation, commented that Iran was developing its space programme both for military and civilian uses.

Iran’s missile programme has been geared towards serving its security interests and has shown a steady progress in its range, precision and sophistication. During the 1980s, it was Iraq that was Iran’s main adversary and most of its missile capability was geared towards countering the threat from Iraq.

During the eight-year war with Iraq, most of Iran’s major cities, including Tehran, came under repeated attacks of Iraqi Scud missiles. It used Oghab and Mushak-120 missiles against Iraq in the Iran-Iraq war and also sought short-range Scud missiles from North Korea. China, North Korea and Russia have been Iran’s primary partners in the development of missile capability. It purchased CSS-8 short-range ballistic missile from China in the late 1980s.

Intermediate Range Missiles
From early 1990s, Iran’s focus shifted towards the development of intermediate range Shahab-3 and Shahab-4 missiles. Shahab-3 is based on North Korea’s No Dong missile and it gives Iran the capability to hit every major city in Israel and some in Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

Though Shahab-4 has been characterised by Iran as a space launch vehicle, it could be used as a technical base for intermediate and intercontinental-range missiles. Shahab-4 is based in Soviet R-12 (SS-4 sandel) technology obtained from Russia.

As concerns about Iraq’s WMD programme grew after the First Gulf War, Iran also accelerated work on its own missile capability. Shahab-3 is seen as central to Iran’s deterrent posture, particularly vis-à-vis Israel’s nuclear capability.

Acquiring Missile Capability
Iran is also keen on acquiring missile capability that counters American hostile foreign policy towards it and as tensions between the US and Iran have increased in recent years, Iran’s efforts to acquire nuclear and concomitant missile capability have also gathered momentum.

Iran is following parallel paths with their civilian and military programmes to legitimise purchases and maintain an ambiguous posture. It is apparent that any improvements in Iran’s peaceful space programme will also benefit Iran’s military programme and the broad trajectory of Iran’s progress in its space programme remains clear in so far as Iran will eventually have capability to threaten the US and Europe even though the time-line as to when it might achieve that capability remains far from clear.