Population Explosion: Causes and Remedies

Ever since the five billionth baby was born on July 11, 1987, it has been observed as World Population Day. The population of the world in 2005 was approximately estimated at 6.396 million. The six billion mark was reached on Oct. 12, 1999. Population, growing at 78 million a year, has doubled since 1960. However, the most noticeable thing is that over 95 per cent of population growth is in developing countries. Whereas, population growth has slowed in Europe, North America and Japan. World population is projected to grow to 9.2 billion by 2050.

Population is growing fastest in the poorest countries. The fastest-growing regions of the world are sub-Saharan Africa, parts of South Asia and West Asia. Their share of the global population has been increasing steadily for the last 40 years.

Within six years, more than half of human beings will live in cities for the first time in history, according to new projections. The world will be increasingly dominated by vast congregation in Asia and Africa. In 1990, the largest cities were London, New York, Paris, Berlin and Chicago. But as per the projections, by 2015, Tokyo, Mumbai, Lagos, Dhaka and Sao Paulo will be the biggest.

The proportion of people in the world living an urban life remained at no more than five per cent from the Roman to the Victorian eras. By contrast, 53 per cent of the world’s population in 2015 will be city-dwellers. As estimated 13 million refugees have fled their own countries to escape from presentation, armed conflict or violence. Only two per cent of the world’s population are migrants. Migrants send more than $ 70 billion to their home countries each year in the form of remittances, and investments in some host countries depending on the labour and skills of foreign-born workers

World Population
The world's population will hit 7 billion early in 2012 and cross 9 billion in 2050, with the majority of the increase taking place in developing countries, revised United Nations estimates show.

India, United States, China, Bangladesh and Pakistan are among nine countries which are projected to account for half of the world's population increase from 2010 to 2050. The others are Nigeria, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Tanzania.

There have been no big changes for the recent estimates and we have not changed the assumptions for the future. It is still projecting that by 2050 the population of the world will be around 9.1 billion.


UN Report
The United Nations Population Division (UNDP) has recently released its report on world population. The report states that the world’s population is likely to reach 9.2 billion by 2050, with virtually all new growth occurring in the developing world.

The report states that the world’s population estimate is a decrease in expected deaths from AIDS because of the rising use of antiretroviral drugs and a downward revision of the prevalence of the disease in some countries.

The report estimates 32 million fewer deaths from AIDS during the 2005-2020 period in the 62 most affected countries, compared with the previous UN estimate in 2004. This change contributed to the slightly higher world population estimate of 9.2 billion in 2050 than the 9.1 billion figure in the 2004 estimate, the report states.

The report also states most population growth will take place in less developed countries, whose numbers are projected to rise from 5.4 billion in 2007 to 7.9 billion in 2050.

India’s Population
Populationwise, India is second in the world after another Asian giant China. India’s population crossed one billion mark on May 11, 2000. The population increased to 1,027 million in March 2001 (531.3 million males and 495.7 million females). India accounts for a meagre 2.4 per cent of the world surface area of 135.79 million sq km, but it supports 16.7 per cent of the world population. It is estimated that at the present rate of growth (1.93 per cent during 1991-2001) India will overtake China by 2050.

In India a population Census is conducted every ten years. This Census throws light on basic facts relating to India’s population. First such Census was conducted way back in 1872, followed by second in 1881. Since then, these have been conducted regularly. Last such Census was conducted in 2001. The next Census will fall due in the year 2011.

It is clear from the size of India’s population that whereas during the first 60 years (1901 to 1961), population increased by about 200 million, during the next 40 years (1961 to 2001), it increased by about 588 million. In the next 40 years it is expected to increase by 620 million.

Countdown to Census 2011
The countdown to the world’s largest democracy—India’s—headcount has begun. The big day is still four years away but Census officials have started the groundwork that will tell the story of how India has grown over the decade. The first phase of the field test for some of the questions to be asked was nearing completion. This is the first time that they have stated the homework nearly four years in advance for the D-Day that would see lakhs of enumerators going from door to door.

The Causes
The causes of population growth can be grouped into two parts which account for this rapid increase—(i) Natural Growth and (ii) Migration.

(i) Natural Growth: Natural growth of population is defined as the difference between the birth-rate and the death-rate prevailing in India. In India, the natural growth rate has been increasing by each passing year.

The following major factors are responsible for the prevailing high birth-rate in the country.

First, the major cause of the high birth-rate is the widespread poverty. The incidence of pregnancy and the number of children born in a poor household is generally larger.

Second, the birth rate in a country is determined by three factors like (i) number of women in the reproductive age; (ii) number of married women in the reproductive age; and (iii) the average age at marriage among females. Similarly, child marriage and marriage at an early age are common pheno­mena in the country.

Third, family planning is not an accepted norm among the couples in the country, especially among the low-income groups. The major reason, again is, poverty, rather than their illiteracy or ignorance about family planning methods, as is generally believed.

Further, improved medical and health facilities help people grow well. Epidemics like cholera, HIV/AIDS, smallpox, cancer, plague, tuberculosis, etc., used to take a heavy toll in the past, have been checked to a great extent. Better housing and sanitary conditions have also controlled the death rate.

(ii) Migration: Migration and the influx of refugees from other neigh­bouring countries like Pakistan, Nepal, Myanmar, Bhutan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, in particular, has also been responsible for increasing the number of people in our country. However, total influx of such population, as proportion of the total population, has never been significant.

Impact on Economy
Population growth has played havoc with the country’s economic system. The increasing numbers have neutralised all good efforts made during the Five-Year Plans to raise the standard of living and economic welfare of the people. Population growth can safely be singled out as the most important cause of a number of ills of the Indian economy.

If the population of the country increases, the rate of growth of per capita income fails to keep pace with the rate of growth of national power. Increasing population increases the supply of manpower which ultimately results in high unemployment rate.

There is already lack of housing, education and health care facilities in the country, which demand an additional expenditure in these sectors.

Remedies
India is the first country in the world that has adopted family planning as the official policy. The family planning programme is comprised the following:

(i) using various means of communications to persuade people to adopt the small family norm of one or two children;

(ii) making available family planning methods through different outlets in urban, semi-urban and rural areas;

(iii) establishing of family planning centres to make available the various services related to family planning;

(iv) financial assistance to acceptors and motivators of family planning methods like sterilisation;

(v) making health services available to lower mortaility among infants;

(vi) provision of nutrition, immunisation and other protective and preventive measures against diseases, etc;

(vii) promoting female education and employment;

(viii) arrangement for education in health and biology of reproduction;

(ix) promotion of delayed marriages;

(x) creating greater awareness of opportunities for legal termination of pregnancies; and (xi) more intensive research in family planning methods and practices.

Though the message of family planning has reached every nook and corner of country, yet the response, in terms of its adoption, specially among the low income groups, has not been very encouraging.

A proper population policy should be two-fold. Firstly, it should aim at a quick eco­nomic development. Secondly, it should aim at controlling the rate of multi­plication of the existing population. In other words, while population should slaen in its pace to enable production to catch up with it, production must, on its part, take strides not only to catch up with population but also to outstrip it.