Pakistan has long suffered from ethnic and sectarian divisions in different parts of the country. But the more recent threat from a well-armed and well-organised Islamist insurgency pushing for the establishment of strict Islamic law in the country’s North West Frontier Province (NWFP) adds a new and more dangerous dimension to the country’s challenges. Although the collapse of the Pakistani state may not be imminent, as some have recently argued, the Government’s surrender of the Swat Valley is a major victory for Islamist extremists seeking to carve out pockets of influence within the country.
Islamabad’s decision to allow the implementation of a parallel Islamic courts system in the Malakand Division of the NWFP (including Swat Valley) demonstrates the weakness of the Pakistan Government and military in the face of an onslaught by Taliban-backed extremists seeking to take over parts of the province.
Tide of Talibanisation
Nothing like a bit of history to refresh the mind as we regard the present. Pakistan launched the Taliban into Afghanistan in the early 1990s and virtually ran the government of Mullah Omar, the “Amir-ul-Momineen”, or prince of the faithful, for the five years that it terrorised Afghanistan between 1996 and 2001.
Pakistanis made a tryst with Talibanisation way back around 1947, and now the time comes when they shall reap what they have sown, if not wholly or in full measure, then very substantially. Interestingly, the fulfilment of Pakistan’s long-standing quest for puritanical Islamic rule to not only forge an identity for its people and to unite them against India, but also to crush ethnic nationalism within its own borders should really not cause too much concern in India.
Quite aside the fact that on its own India cannot, even if it wanted to, halt Pakistan from becoming a medieval Islamic state, there is no reason why India should attempt to prevent this from happening. If anything, India should not only call Pakistan’s bluff (or, if you prefer, blackmail) of the mullahs taking over in Islamabad, but also encourage and, if possible, assist the spread of Talibanisation in Pakistan.
Army Strikes in Swat
Widening its crackdown on the Taliban, the Pakistan Army has attacked militants with helicopter gunships and tanks, as troops rolled in to wrest control of the restive Swat valley killing 62 extremists in one of the most bloodiest fightings, leading the tolls at over 300.
Thirty-five Taliban fighters were killed as troops, under heavy tank fire cover, engaged the militants in street fighting in Mingora and took control of Emerald Mines, which Taliban were exploiting to enrich their coffers. Heavy fighting also raged in the nearby Buner district where troops blasted Taliban fortifications in Pir Baba and Sultanwas areas, killing 27 militants.
Around 50,000 people have left various towns of the Swat valley with the provincial authorities saying that the figure could go as high as 500,000. About 140 Sikh families comprising 1,200 persons have been displaced by fighting between militants and Pakistani security forces in Buner district of the restive NWFP. The military has accused the Taliban of violating the accord by abducting and killing civilians and security personnel.
Leaving Swat Valley
Thousands of terrified civilians have fled Swat valley after relaxation of curfew, where Pakistani security forces are engaged in fierce clashes with the resurgent Taliban, even as the authorities feared over a million people may be displaced.
It is expected that more than 1,00,000 people would quit their homes from the embattled Swat valley.
Pakistan has asked residents of the Swat to leave the valley over the past week, while its fighter jets and helicopter gunships have pounded Taliban positions in an operation backed by the US, which has been termed by the Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani as “war of the country's survival".
US-Af-Pak Meeting
The US President Barack Obama and his Afghan and Pakistan counterparts Hamid Karzai and Asif Ali Zardari, respectively held a two-day second tri-lateral meeting in Washington DC. The US President has now twice held trilateral meetings with the Presidents of Pakistan and Afghanistan in a bid to solve the problem of extremism and to deal a body blow to Al Qaeda and its local associates, especially the Taliban. The first summit was in late 2006 when President George W. Bush was at the helm.
At the end of the meeting, the three Presidents have resolved to strengthen the strategic partnership between the three countries and reaffirmed their commitments to combat the menace of extremism and terrorism.
The three countries also expressed a shared desire to deepen the strategic dialogue between Afghanistan and Pakistan and to continue the trilateral talks. The US also reaffirmed its strong commitment to the strategic partnerships at bilateral level with both Pakistan and Afghanistan. While the US reiterated its strong support for stability and security of the two countries, Islamabad and Kabul on the other hand agreed to continue the cross-border Jirga process so as to build consensus on matters of mutual interest.
Need of the Hour
Without a strong political determination to defeat the Taliban/al-Qaeda threat to the existence of Pakistan, the Pakistani Army cannot succeed on its own in its operations in the tribal areas. There is no consensus among political leaders about the seriousness of this threat. No political party, including the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) can dare campaign against the Taliban/al-Qaeda or, for that matter, against any of the banned terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi.
On the contrary, they try to appease Taliban/Al-Qaeda by howling against America's drone attacks on their hideouts or by snubbing India for showing concern for the Sikh community in the Orakzai agency. Pakistan's Foreign Minister Sham Mehmud Querishi, while condemning India's concern, did not say a word about Taliban's authority to collect jaziya from them.
As far as India is concerned, it must remain on its toes. With the Taliban openly declaring their intention to impose their writ in all of Pakistan, there is a very real possibility that sooner or later our security forces would have to confront them. There is also the nightmarish possibility of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal falling into the Taliban’s hands. Thus, given the seriousness of the situation in Pakistan complacency is the last thing that anyone would want, and it is imperative that India prepares for any eventuality.
In the final analysis, it will be up to the Pakistani military to decide how much of the country will be ceded to the Taliban. But Pakistani military leaders rightly acknowledge that they need the public behind them before they can take on the Taliban militarily. Pakistani civilian leaders have been too slow to awaken to the threat before them and too willing to sacrifice their constituents to the brutal policies of the Taliban.
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