Sunday, November 20, 2011

Possible Facets of Afghan War

The current year is going about to end and we are entering 2012, the scene is it that the United States and its allies are badly entangled in Afghanistan. The activities of the Taliban are growing with each passing day. The expenditure of the US Army is growing to unbearable extent. According to the promise with the US people and the world, President Barack Obama has to start withdrawal of his forces, but that does not seem to be turning conducive for that. Now even the US officials have also stared admitting that the dream does not seem to be true. In addition to the growing distance between the United States and the allied countries, some Western countries are also starting withdrawal of their troops this year.
The most serious problem is that the harmony between the US, Pakistani, and Afghan Governments, which should be, is not there. The United States will increase pressure on Pakistan for increasing pressure on the Taliban according to the US desire, so that they are defeated on the battlefield or at least they agree to reconciliation on US terms. Pakistan will try that the United States makes it an ally by taking it into confidence on the future strategy for Afghanistan and desists from giving any role to India in Afghanistan. After badly frustrated with the global role, the Afghanistan will make serious effort to reconcile with the Taliban and Kabul will be demanded the United States and Pakistan to delegate it authority and also to compel the Taliban for reconciliation with the Afghan Government.
Carrot-and-Stick Policy
Until now, the situation is that all are pursing the carrot-and-stick policy toward each other. The three parties are also paying their share of the price, but at the moment none is ready to give up its path. It seems this game will continue in 2012 as well and it may further intensify. Thus, there is no chance of the situation taking a decisive turn in 2012. The trends will, however, be set during this year. By the end of the current year, the final moves of all parties will be clear and after the cards are shown by the three players, the plan of action of the resisting groups like the Taliban and Hizb-e-Islami will also become explicit. Al-Qaida as well as the Taliban considers 2012 decisive with regard to their struggle. They will adopt the carrot-and-stick policy toward Pakistan, whereas in response Pakistan will also demonstrate the similar attitude. Both sides will also indicate at reconciliation and full force will also be demonstrated and if no way for reconciliation is found, 2012 will be extremely bloodstained for Pakistan.
The trend of the Taliban's relations with Al-Qaida will also become explicit in 2012 and their direction will be set as to whether the Taliban break up with Al-Qaida or further increase their dependence on it. It is also to be decided this year that whether Al-Qaida maintains the status of this region as its battlefield or turns to any other region.
Lasting Peace in Region
From India to Iran and Saudi Arabia to Russia and Turkey, all are respondents and actors with one reference or the other, but they key is in the hand of three characters -- the US, Pakistani, and Afghan Governments. If confidence is built among them in real sense during 2011; they really become friends; they adopt the path of trusting each other instead of playing games with each other and if they adopt a joint strategy keeping in view the reservations and interests of each other instead of benefiting from weaknesses of each other, the crisis can be resolved and the chances of a lasting peace in the region can be created. But if the games with each other in the name of friendship and cooperation continue and the use of carrot-and-stick at the same time continues, the crisis and chaos will intensify and the difficulties of the three countries -- the United States, Pakistan, and Afghanistan -- will increase. Thus, not only the game of bloodshed and destruction will continue in the region but this fire will spread to the areas where even it cannot be imagined.
Interests of Other Countries
If the status quo persists or the gulf between the three mentioned parties further widens, the United States and its allies will suffer loss, Pakistan will head toward instability and Afghanistan will continue to be the battlefield. China and India will reap the benefits.
The war of the survival and interests of Iran, Russia, and China will continue on the Afghan and Pakistani soil, whereas the loss and humiliation will fall in the lap of the United States and Afghanistan, and Pakistan will face destruction. India will benefit because the attention of the Pakistani security forces will be focused on the western border instead of the eastern border, while the jihadists, who had turned toward militancy to fight India, will be fighting with the Pakistani forces.

No comments: