Possible Facets of Afghan War

The current year is going about to end and we are entering 2012, the scene is it that the United States and its allies are badly entangled in Afghanistan. The activities of the Taliban are growing with each passing day. The expenditure of the US Army is growing to unbearable extent. According to the promise with the US people and the world, President Barack Obama has to start withdrawal of his forces, but that does not seem to be turning conducive for that. Now even the US officials have also stared admitting that the dream does not seem to be true. In addition to the growing distance between the United States and the allied countries, some Western countries are also starting withdrawal of their troops this year.
The most serious problem is that the harmony between the US, Pakistani, and Afghan Governments, which should be, is not there. The United States will increase pressure on Pakistan for increasing pressure on the Taliban according to the US desire, so that they are defeated on the battlefield or at least they agree to reconciliation on US terms. Pakistan will try that the United States makes it an ally by taking it into confidence on the future strategy for Afghanistan and desists from giving any role to India in Afghanistan. After badly frustrated with the global role, the Afghanistan will make serious effort to reconcile with the Taliban and Kabul will be demanded the United States and Pakistan to delegate it authority and also to compel the Taliban for reconciliation with the Afghan Government.
Carrot-and-Stick Policy
Until now, the situation is that all are pursing the carrot-and-stick policy toward each other. The three parties are also paying their share of the price, but at the moment none is ready to give up its path. It seems this game will continue in 2012 as well and it may further intensify. Thus, there is no chance of the situation taking a decisive turn in 2012. The trends will, however, be set during this year. By the end of the current year, the final moves of all parties will be clear and after the cards are shown by the three players, the plan of action of the resisting groups like the Taliban and Hizb-e-Islami will also become explicit. Al-Qaida as well as the Taliban considers 2012 decisive with regard to their struggle. They will adopt the carrot-and-stick policy toward Pakistan, whereas in response Pakistan will also demonstrate the similar attitude. Both sides will also indicate at reconciliation and full force will also be demonstrated and if no way for reconciliation is found, 2012 will be extremely bloodstained for Pakistan.
The trend of the Taliban's relations with Al-Qaida will also become explicit in 2012 and their direction will be set as to whether the Taliban break up with Al-Qaida or further increase their dependence on it. It is also to be decided this year that whether Al-Qaida maintains the status of this region as its battlefield or turns to any other region.
Lasting Peace in Region
From India to Iran and Saudi Arabia to Russia and Turkey, all are respondents and actors with one reference or the other, but they key is in the hand of three characters -- the US, Pakistani, and Afghan Governments. If confidence is built among them in real sense during 2011; they really become friends; they adopt the path of trusting each other instead of playing games with each other and if they adopt a joint strategy keeping in view the reservations and interests of each other instead of benefiting from weaknesses of each other, the crisis can be resolved and the chances of a lasting peace in the region can be created. But if the games with each other in the name of friendship and cooperation continue and the use of carrot-and-stick at the same time continues, the crisis and chaos will intensify and the difficulties of the three countries -- the United States, Pakistan, and Afghanistan -- will increase. Thus, not only the game of bloodshed and destruction will continue in the region but this fire will spread to the areas where even it cannot be imagined.
Interests of Other Countries
If the status quo persists or the gulf between the three mentioned parties further widens, the United States and its allies will suffer loss, Pakistan will head toward instability and Afghanistan will continue to be the battlefield. China and India will reap the benefits.
The war of the survival and interests of Iran, Russia, and China will continue on the Afghan and Pakistani soil, whereas the loss and humiliation will fall in the lap of the United States and Afghanistan, and Pakistan will face destruction. India will benefit because the attention of the Pakistani security forces will be focused on the western border instead of the eastern border, while the jihadists, who had turned toward militancy to fight India, will be fighting with the Pakistani forces.

Hamid Karzai's Coming US Visit

Afghan President Hamid Karzai, accompanied by a high level delegation, is traveling to the United States next week. Although the Afghan Government has not released any statement about the aims of the visit, political experts are of the view that there may be two subjects which would be points of the agenda of the meetings:

1. Talks with Taliban in the forthcoming Peace Consultative Jirga (assembly of elders).

2. Restoration of relations between Karzai and the United States.

Achievement of Targets
The question that arises here is that to what extent President Karzai's visit to Washington would contribute to the achievement of the targets. Although there is no Afghan, including me, who would oppose talks, because they have been very much put in trouble by war, yet there are some authorities, both inland and abroad, who do not think the talks with Taliban at this time as beneficial for Afghanistan. They argue so because their benefits might be at stake. This opposition of talks with Taliban at this moment has brought the Afghan President face to face with a number of obstacles in the way of his talks with Taliban.

However, the mafia members close to President Karzai also do not want the talks of the government with Taliban and Hizb-e-Islami, as the peace talks with Taliban would affect them negatively.

According to a report published by The Washington Post, both the deputies of the Afghan President, namely Mohammad Qasim Fahim and Karim Khalili, are showing opposition to talks with Taliban. The daily states with reference to both of them that if Taliban are brought to government, Karzai might be killed.

But the question is that whether they are so much worried about Karzai or there is something in their minds. Is not there something that lies in the bottom?

Karim Khalili and Mohammad Qasim Fahim both are war lords and members of mafia on national level. They are notorious on national level for the killing of thousands of people and grabbing land by force. And it is possible that in case of peace talks with the Taliban, they would lose their benefits.

Talks With Taliban
A number of Americans also do not consider this time as a proper time for talks with the Taliban. They say that Taliban are not united and talks with them at this moment might not give noticeable result. Moreover, they think that the Taliban are gaining more and more strength with the passage of every single day. They add that Taliban are sure about their victory, and, therefore, they are not willing for talks at present.

Another important agenda of the discussion of Obama and Karzai is the restoration of the weakened links between them. A month ago, President Karzai charged the international community for rigging in the elections and severely criticized it. On the other hand, Karzai also charged the US forces for the large number of civilian killing and several other issues and added that if this continues, the general public in Afghanistan might develop a hatred for the US forces. Alongside it, President Obama, during his visit to Afghanistan in June, also referred to President Karzai failure in checking corruption in the country. All these led to the creation of an atmosphere of the lack of confidence between them.

There is a wise saying in Pashto: "A person gets fire from his own skirt", and President Karzai has also got fire from his own skirt, as his own deputies are opposing the peace talks with Taliban. Then why should we complain from the government, the opposition and the opponent parties?

Karzai should first get the support of his own circle and then go on to talk with Taliban. I mean that as long as these war lords and mafia members, who are giving preference to their personal interests over the national interests, are there in the government, peace talks are impossible.

Peace Consultative Jirga
Now, Karzai wants to talk to US President Barack Obama on these two points during his Washington visit. And it was for this reason that the peace consultative jirga, planned to be held in May, was delayed. It is possible that Karzai would discuss it with Obama and get the support of United States for holding the jirga and peace talks with Taliban.

Karzai! Complaints are directed against those who are not one's opponents. That is why we are complaining to you and are criticizing you. The eyes of the nation are not closed to facts and you should also not make blank excuses to convince yourself. You are convincing the Afghans on daily basis with your empty remarks and statements. And now you are going to convince the international community as well. First, you should bring changes in your government to get internal support for restoring peace and then go ahead for talks with Taliban. And if you are also just wasting time like Hazrat sahib (Perhaps he means Sibghatullah Mujaddidi), then it is another thing.