The United States wants to put an end to its longest war, the war in Afghanistan. US President Barack Obama made this comment recently. Although many people do not accept this or do not want to accept it, these comments bear a strange resemblance to the comments made by the last Soviet President, Mikhail Gorbachev, when the Soviet forces were withdrawing from Afghanistan. Gorbachev really succeeded in ending the longest war in the history of his country, but it nevertheless cost the then Soviet Union and Afghanistan dearly. Although it portrayed Soviet defeat in Afghanistan in the most honorable way, it opened the gate for new long and frustrating wars in our country.
Does Obama also want to end the longest war in the history of his country the way Gorbachev did? Obama's comments clearly contradict comments made by the United States and its military commanders in the past. Previously, continued military cooperation and possible long-term US presence was emphasized. What has happened now that US officials are now showing an inclination towards ending their military presence in Afghanistan?
Legitimate Solutions
Meanwhile, Taliban leader Mullah Omar surprisingly showed in his Id message that he has revisited his previous position.
It is not clear how the Afghan Government found out that the statement is indeed issued by Mullah Omar because Hamid Karzai has constantly been in doubt whether the Taliban really stage attacks and kill people when they assume responsibility for such incidents. He had argued that since nobody has seen Taliban spokespersons, nobody can know that these persons who contact the media truly represent the Taliban and their leader). Mullah Omar said in the statement that any legitimate solutions to the Afghanistan issue can be considered. The Taliban leader has not explained what his group deems as legitimate, but it is clear that this group has constantly emphasized on a political role for itself under special conditions.
New Developments
Anyway, several points emerge from the US president's comments and Mullah Omar's statement:
First, when Obama says he will soon end the longest US war, he may mean he will do so to handle the financial cost the war is inflicting. The most recent report by the two Senate committees on the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq says that 60bn dollars were wasted on two useless wars. The report emphasizes that 60bn dollars of taxpayers' money have been wasted due to suspicious contracts, lack of oversight and transparent mechanisms. This may have prompted the US president to speak about ending the war in Afghanistan.
Second, after Usamah Bin-Ladin's death, the 10-year war in Afghanistan, which the Americans regard as the longest war in US history, entered a new phase and many Americans said that continued presence of their troops in Afghanistan is no longer justified. It is also important to remember that the level of international interest in the menace of terrorism is not as high as it used to be and many people believe that the Westerners were mistaken in defining terrorism.
Third, the United States wants to have a long-term presence in Afghanistan and in the region, which can be facilitated if military bases are built. This is why the Americans are tying to have a strategic declaration with Afghanistan to achieve this objective and practically maintain a powerful and long-term presence in Afghanistan. To achieve this objective, there is a need to secure the consent of a number of powerful regional countries including Pakistan, China and Russia and it seems some countries have consented already.
Fourth, the government of Afghanistan has been busy trying to include a number of Taliban and their leaders in the political process and a number of countries supporting Afghanistan have agreed to this or have been encouraging this. Mullah Omar's statement can be viewed as a green light to the forthcoming talks in Turkey. The international community wants to hold a regional conference in Turkey and invite a number of groups and neighboring countries involved in Afghanistan before it holds the Bonn II conference. It is said that the conference can enable the Taliban to enter the political process in the country. Although the Americans have said that there is no place for the Taliban in the Bonn II conference, the government of Afghanistan has constantly emphasized that the Afghan delegation will be composed of one group under the umbrella of the government of Afghanistan. Karzai has extended an invitation to the Taliban to participate in the conference under these conditions.
Fifth, authoritarian circles within the government are trying to convince the United States and Western governments that the best solution to the crisis in the country is to negotiate with and give insurgent groups a share in the government. Therefore, the lengthy war is likely to come to an end through talks with these groups.
Sixth, the government of Afghanistan wants to convene a Loya Jirga or grand assembly of Afghans, which many analysts think would be a ceremonial event, to secure the agreement of the Jirga to the joint declaration with the United States and thus pave the way for the Taliban to enter the government.
Seven, Americans are not satisfied with what has happened in Afghanistan in the past 10 years and by having a regional ally they want to rid themselves of the need to spend heavy sums of money. It is not important for them as to who will ensure their interests as long as their interests are ensured.
Eighth, President Karzai embarked on a tour of Saudi Arabia shortly prior to Id ul-Fitr citing umrah (pilgrimage to the Holy Kaba in Saudi town of Mecca) as the reason, but Saudi Arabia had previously assembled a number of other Afghan groups. The statement by the Office of the President about Hamid Karzai's trip had alluded to talks with Saudi officials for peace in Afghanistan.
Ninth, these show that fresh efforts are being made to maintain the status quo while at the same time find a solution for Afghanistan. This can stand in blatant contradiction with the achievements of the international community in the past 10 years in Afghanistan. These new developments can also jeopardize true peace and sideline the enlightened and pro-reform forces in the country.
Does Obama also want to end the longest war in the history of his country the way Gorbachev did? Obama's comments clearly contradict comments made by the United States and its military commanders in the past. Previously, continued military cooperation and possible long-term US presence was emphasized. What has happened now that US officials are now showing an inclination towards ending their military presence in Afghanistan?
Legitimate Solutions
Meanwhile, Taliban leader Mullah Omar surprisingly showed in his Id message that he has revisited his previous position.
It is not clear how the Afghan Government found out that the statement is indeed issued by Mullah Omar because Hamid Karzai has constantly been in doubt whether the Taliban really stage attacks and kill people when they assume responsibility for such incidents. He had argued that since nobody has seen Taliban spokespersons, nobody can know that these persons who contact the media truly represent the Taliban and their leader). Mullah Omar said in the statement that any legitimate solutions to the Afghanistan issue can be considered. The Taliban leader has not explained what his group deems as legitimate, but it is clear that this group has constantly emphasized on a political role for itself under special conditions.
New Developments
Anyway, several points emerge from the US president's comments and Mullah Omar's statement:
First, when Obama says he will soon end the longest US war, he may mean he will do so to handle the financial cost the war is inflicting. The most recent report by the two Senate committees on the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq says that 60bn dollars were wasted on two useless wars. The report emphasizes that 60bn dollars of taxpayers' money have been wasted due to suspicious contracts, lack of oversight and transparent mechanisms. This may have prompted the US president to speak about ending the war in Afghanistan.
Second, after Usamah Bin-Ladin's death, the 10-year war in Afghanistan, which the Americans regard as the longest war in US history, entered a new phase and many Americans said that continued presence of their troops in Afghanistan is no longer justified. It is also important to remember that the level of international interest in the menace of terrorism is not as high as it used to be and many people believe that the Westerners were mistaken in defining terrorism.
Third, the United States wants to have a long-term presence in Afghanistan and in the region, which can be facilitated if military bases are built. This is why the Americans are tying to have a strategic declaration with Afghanistan to achieve this objective and practically maintain a powerful and long-term presence in Afghanistan. To achieve this objective, there is a need to secure the consent of a number of powerful regional countries including Pakistan, China and Russia and it seems some countries have consented already.
Fourth, the government of Afghanistan has been busy trying to include a number of Taliban and their leaders in the political process and a number of countries supporting Afghanistan have agreed to this or have been encouraging this. Mullah Omar's statement can be viewed as a green light to the forthcoming talks in Turkey. The international community wants to hold a regional conference in Turkey and invite a number of groups and neighboring countries involved in Afghanistan before it holds the Bonn II conference. It is said that the conference can enable the Taliban to enter the political process in the country. Although the Americans have said that there is no place for the Taliban in the Bonn II conference, the government of Afghanistan has constantly emphasized that the Afghan delegation will be composed of one group under the umbrella of the government of Afghanistan. Karzai has extended an invitation to the Taliban to participate in the conference under these conditions.
Fifth, authoritarian circles within the government are trying to convince the United States and Western governments that the best solution to the crisis in the country is to negotiate with and give insurgent groups a share in the government. Therefore, the lengthy war is likely to come to an end through talks with these groups.
Sixth, the government of Afghanistan wants to convene a Loya Jirga or grand assembly of Afghans, which many analysts think would be a ceremonial event, to secure the agreement of the Jirga to the joint declaration with the United States and thus pave the way for the Taliban to enter the government.
Seven, Americans are not satisfied with what has happened in Afghanistan in the past 10 years and by having a regional ally they want to rid themselves of the need to spend heavy sums of money. It is not important for them as to who will ensure their interests as long as their interests are ensured.
Eighth, President Karzai embarked on a tour of Saudi Arabia shortly prior to Id ul-Fitr citing umrah (pilgrimage to the Holy Kaba in Saudi town of Mecca) as the reason, but Saudi Arabia had previously assembled a number of other Afghan groups. The statement by the Office of the President about Hamid Karzai's trip had alluded to talks with Saudi officials for peace in Afghanistan.
Ninth, these show that fresh efforts are being made to maintain the status quo while at the same time find a solution for Afghanistan. This can stand in blatant contradiction with the achievements of the international community in the past 10 years in Afghanistan. These new developments can also jeopardize true peace and sideline the enlightened and pro-reform forces in the country.
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