Peace Process in Afghanistan

The United States wants to put an end to its longest war, the war in Afghanistan. US President Barack Obama made this comment recently. Although many people do not accept this or do not want to accept it, these comments bear a strange resemblance to the comments made by the last Soviet President, Mikhail Gorbachev, when the Soviet forces were withdrawing from Afghanistan. Gorbachev really succeeded in ending the longest war in the history of his country, but it nevertheless cost the then Soviet Union and Afghanistan dearly. Although it portrayed Soviet defeat in Afghanistan in the most honorable way, it opened the gate for new long and frustrating wars in our country.
Does Obama also want to end the longest war in the history of his country the way Gorbachev did? Obama's comments clearly contradict comments made by the United States and its military commanders in the past. Previously, continued military cooperation and possible long-term US presence was emphasized. What has happened now that US officials are now showing an inclination towards ending their military presence in Afghanistan?
Legitimate Solutions
Meanwhile, Taliban leader Mullah Omar surprisingly showed in his Id message that he has revisited his previous position.
It is not clear how the Afghan Government found out that the statement is indeed issued by Mullah Omar because Hamid Karzai has constantly been in doubt whether the Taliban really stage attacks and kill people when they assume responsibility for such incidents. He had argued that since nobody has seen Taliban spokespersons, nobody can know that these persons who contact the media truly represent the Taliban and their leader). Mullah Omar said in the statement that any legitimate solutions to the Afghanistan issue can be considered. The Taliban leader has not explained what his group deems as legitimate, but it is clear that this group has constantly emphasized on a political role for itself under special conditions.
New Developments
Anyway, several points emerge from the US president's comments and Mullah Omar's statement:
First, when Obama says he will soon end the longest US war, he may mean he will do so to handle the financial cost the war is inflicting. The most recent report by the two Senate committees on the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq says that 60bn dollars were wasted on two useless wars. The report emphasizes that 60bn dollars of taxpayers' money have been wasted due to suspicious contracts, lack of oversight and transparent mechanisms. This may have prompted the US president to speak about ending the war in Afghanistan.
Second, after Usamah Bin-Ladin's death, the 10-year war in Afghanistan, which the Americans regard as the longest war in US history, entered a new phase and many Americans said that continued presence of their troops in Afghanistan is no longer justified. It is also important to remember that the level of international interest in the menace of terrorism is not as high as it used to be and many people believe that the Westerners were mistaken in defining terrorism.
Third, the United States wants to have a long-term presence in Afghanistan and in the region, which can be facilitated if military bases are built. This is why the Americans are tying to have a strategic declaration with Afghanistan to achieve this objective and practically maintain a powerful and long-term presence in Afghanistan. To achieve this objective, there is a need to secure the consent of a number of powerful regional countries including Pakistan, China and Russia and it seems some countries have consented already.
Fourth, the government of Afghanistan has been busy trying to include a number of Taliban and their leaders in the political process and a number of countries supporting Afghanistan have agreed to this or have been encouraging this. Mullah Omar's statement can be viewed as a green light to the forthcoming talks in Turkey. The international community wants to hold a regional conference in Turkey and invite a number of groups and neighboring countries involved in Afghanistan before it holds the Bonn II conference. It is said that the conference can enable the Taliban to enter the political process in the country. Although the Americans have said that there is no place for the Taliban in the Bonn II conference, the government of Afghanistan has constantly emphasized that the Afghan delegation will be composed of one group under the umbrella of the government of Afghanistan. Karzai has extended an invitation to the Taliban to participate in the conference under these conditions.
Fifth, authoritarian circles within the government are trying to convince the United States and Western governments that the best solution to the crisis in the country is to negotiate with and give insurgent groups a share in the government. Therefore, the lengthy war is likely to come to an end through talks with these groups.
Sixth, the government of Afghanistan wants to convene a Loya Jirga or grand assembly of Afghans, which many analysts think would be a ceremonial event, to secure the agreement of the Jirga to the joint declaration with the United States and thus pave the way for the Taliban to enter the government.
Seven, Americans are not satisfied with what has happened in Afghanistan in the past 10 years and by having a regional ally they want to rid themselves of the need to spend heavy sums of money. It is not important for them as to who will ensure their interests as long as their interests are ensured.
Eighth, President Karzai embarked on a tour of Saudi Arabia shortly prior to Id ul-Fitr citing umrah (pilgrimage to the Holy Kaba in Saudi town of Mecca) as the reason, but Saudi Arabia had previously assembled a number of other Afghan groups. The statement by the Office of the President about Hamid Karzai's trip had alluded to talks with Saudi officials for peace in Afghanistan.
Ninth, these show that fresh efforts are being made to maintain the status quo while at the same time find a solution for Afghanistan. This can stand in blatant contradiction with the achievements of the international community in the past 10 years in Afghanistan. These new developments can also jeopardize true peace and sideline the enlightened and pro-reform forces in the country.

Tripartite Conference on Afghanistan

Recently, an urgent conference was held between foreign ministers of Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan. The conference recognized the important role of these three countries in establishing peace, stability, and development of the war-torn Afghanistan. It was also stressed that only those countries should participate in the conferences who are the immediate neighbors of Afghanistan. The foreign ministers of Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan agreed on the expansion of this tripartite conference and stressed on the need for the inclusion of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan¸ Tajikistan and Peoples Republic of China.

Handling Osama
If this conference is viewed in the background of the international conference held in the United Kingdom earlier this month, this conference is taking place to exclude India from this group. This enjoys the support of the Western powers and it is probable that China is also supporting this move. This step should have been taken prior to launching the attack on Afghanistan, when George W. Bush was asking for handing over Osama Bin Laden. He had rejected the Taliban offer of handing over Osama Bin Laden to a neutral country. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Pakistan had cut off their diplomatic ties with the Taliban, although these countries had recognized the Taliban government earlier. In this regard, the oppressive Pervez Musharraf violated the international law laid down in the Vienna Convention of 1961 and 1963, by handing over the ambassador of Afghanistan, Mullah Zaeef, to the United States.
The US security officials slapped him while taking him into custody. He fell on the ground as a result of the slap. Later his beard was shaved and put in the Guantanamo Bay prison. No crime was proved against him and he was later released. This act is so shameful that if any other country does the same act with a US ambassador, the United States will have no right to object to that. Since, this is a tradition of international diplomacy, that if any nation misbehaves with an ambassador of a country, that country has the right to misbehave with the country's ambassador in the same manner.
Since the 9/11, Afghanistan is on the international radar. It has been occupied by 42 countries, including the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members. They have been authorized by the UNSC to capture Afghanistan under the garb of establishing security in the country. Russia and China are not part of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), so this whole solely US drama. The other countries in this drama have no more value than the pawns of the chessboard. At present, 68,000 US forces are present in Afghanistan and during the current year additional troops will be arriving at regular intervals. As a result, the total strength of the US forces will reach the 0.1 million mark.

Prevailing Situation
It is evident from this that the United States wants to remain occupied in this region. However, Barack Obama because of the public pressure had announced a conditional troop withdrawal by 2011. Moreover, the US generals and other officials have been constantly saying that they cannot give a fixed deadline for the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. The US special ambassador to Afghanistan and Pakistan has said that the withdrawal will be equivalent to surrender. Therefore, the US forces in Afghanistan cannot be called back. This is dependent on the situation prevalent in the country.
These are the ground realities. Afghanistan is an occupied country and Hamid Karazi is a puppet president of the occupied forces. The present Pakistani Government is also subservient to the United States. They are not even able to stop the drone attacks on their own soil as accepted by Defense Minister Ahmed Mukhtar. As far as Iran is concerned, it in spite of being against the United States has accepted and is actively supporting the pro-US Afghan and Iraqi Governments. Iran did not oppose the US attacks on Afghanistan and Iraq. Let alone this, it has also been supportive of these attack because of its open rivalry with the governments of the Taliban and the Ba'ath Party. The Khatami government, in particular, openly supported the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. The United States also had the support of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan for attack on Afghanistan. On 16 May 2001, US General Tommy Frank went to Dushanbe and offered special military aid for Tajikistan because of its strategic position. The dictator ruler of that country agreed to join NATO "for the sake of peace."
At present, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan have operational US Army bases and provide other facilities. In all these affairs, Russia is also included and has allowed transit facility for the nonmilitary equipment to the occupying forces in Afghanistan. As far as Pakistan is concerned, they are fighting the US war for the sake of the $1.5 billion aid. It is also raising a loud hue and cry for more aid because their economy has been destroyed because of this antiterrorism campaign. However, China is a silent spectator in this scenario and is watching this scene. It has only raised concerns about the presence of such a large US and NATO forces close to its border, but nothing more than that.

Development of Afghanistan
The conference highlighted all states involved in the theatre of war taking place in Central and South Asia, so that it becomes evident on the readers that except for China there is no neutral state. Although India is not close to this region, the Western powers are trying to involve India into this conflict. India gained the maximum from the fall of the Taliban government. It seems as if they have taken the contract for the development of Afghanistan. They are involved in making roads, bridges, dams. In addition, they are training the Afghan Police.
Afghan Foreign Minister Rangin Dadfar Spanta and Abdallah Abdallah are both pro India as is evident from their anti-Pakistan planning and policies. Then, how can anybody talk about the exit of the Indians from Afghanistan. No doubt, Shah Mahmood Qureshi can call such numerous conferences, but the opportunity to solve this problem has been lost by the Pakistani rulers when it could be sorted between the regional states. As far as Americans are concerned, as previously stated, they along with their European allies and puppet rulers of the developing countries launched an offensive against Afghanistan. In addition, they by involving the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) have made this problem an international issue. Now, when the United States is feeling that it is unable to defeat the freedom fighters, it has asked its counterpart, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, to arrange a carnival. Naturally, the London Conference is going to be an international affair rather than a regional one since all countries involved in the Afghan crisis, the United States, France, and Germany are not part of the regional states. All these countries have come from a long distance to loot this country. Their mere presence in the region is the reason behind chaos, uncertainty, restlessness and terrorism in the region.

Establishing Consensus
The Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) had a dominant role in this area but that also has become ineffective like the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC). Afghanistan was the NAM fundamental member, but now when it is facing a difficult situation, NAM is not paying any attention to the same. When Russia assaulted Afghanistan, NAM had passed a resolution for the withdrawal of foreign security forces and armed militants from Afghanistan and establishing a consensus government in Afghanistan. As a result, then Soviet Union President Mikhail Gorbachev did pull back his army from there, but the United States is worse colonial power than Russia. It wants the control of oil wealth of Iraq and by occupying Afghanistan, the United States wants to stop the supply of gas from the Central Asian states to South Asian states.
I fail to understand the Russian policies as to why it does not openly oppose the US aggression and occupation in Afghanistan. Although the United States is expanding and establishing its military bases in the Central Asian states. It is also trying to get into Ukraine and Georgia. In addition, it wants to have a puppet regime like that of Karzai and to include these countries in NATO. On contrary, Russia has failed to counter the US aggression in Georgia and the West.

Assessment
If a conference is held of the regional countries regarding Afghanistan, it will be known as a US drama because of the participants mentioned in the above lines are all partial and want to strengthen the Karzai government. Now, Karzai does not have even the confidence of his parliament. How can the Taliban have confidence on those countries that have been supporters of the Northern Alliance and are still supporting them? Therefore, this issue can only be sorted out by a war for freedom, which it has been carrying out for the last nine years.