Peace Process in Afghanistan

The United States wants to put an end to its longest war, the war in Afghanistan. US President Barack Obama made this comment recently. Although many people do not accept this or do not want to accept it, these comments bear a strange resemblance to the comments made by the last Soviet President, Mikhail Gorbachev, when the Soviet forces were withdrawing from Afghanistan. Gorbachev really succeeded in ending the longest war in the history of his country, but it nevertheless cost the then Soviet Union and Afghanistan dearly. Although it portrayed Soviet defeat in Afghanistan in the most honorable way, it opened the gate for new long and frustrating wars in our country.
Does Obama also want to end the longest war in the history of his country the way Gorbachev did? Obama's comments clearly contradict comments made by the United States and its military commanders in the past. Previously, continued military cooperation and possible long-term US presence was emphasized. What has happened now that US officials are now showing an inclination towards ending their military presence in Afghanistan?
Legitimate Solutions
Meanwhile, Taliban leader Mullah Omar surprisingly showed in his Id message that he has revisited his previous position.
It is not clear how the Afghan Government found out that the statement is indeed issued by Mullah Omar because Hamid Karzai has constantly been in doubt whether the Taliban really stage attacks and kill people when they assume responsibility for such incidents. He had argued that since nobody has seen Taliban spokespersons, nobody can know that these persons who contact the media truly represent the Taliban and their leader). Mullah Omar said in the statement that any legitimate solutions to the Afghanistan issue can be considered. The Taliban leader has not explained what his group deems as legitimate, but it is clear that this group has constantly emphasized on a political role for itself under special conditions.
New Developments
Anyway, several points emerge from the US president's comments and Mullah Omar's statement:
First, when Obama says he will soon end the longest US war, he may mean he will do so to handle the financial cost the war is inflicting. The most recent report by the two Senate committees on the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq says that 60bn dollars were wasted on two useless wars. The report emphasizes that 60bn dollars of taxpayers' money have been wasted due to suspicious contracts, lack of oversight and transparent mechanisms. This may have prompted the US president to speak about ending the war in Afghanistan.
Second, after Usamah Bin-Ladin's death, the 10-year war in Afghanistan, which the Americans regard as the longest war in US history, entered a new phase and many Americans said that continued presence of their troops in Afghanistan is no longer justified. It is also important to remember that the level of international interest in the menace of terrorism is not as high as it used to be and many people believe that the Westerners were mistaken in defining terrorism.
Third, the United States wants to have a long-term presence in Afghanistan and in the region, which can be facilitated if military bases are built. This is why the Americans are tying to have a strategic declaration with Afghanistan to achieve this objective and practically maintain a powerful and long-term presence in Afghanistan. To achieve this objective, there is a need to secure the consent of a number of powerful regional countries including Pakistan, China and Russia and it seems some countries have consented already.
Fourth, the government of Afghanistan has been busy trying to include a number of Taliban and their leaders in the political process and a number of countries supporting Afghanistan have agreed to this or have been encouraging this. Mullah Omar's statement can be viewed as a green light to the forthcoming talks in Turkey. The international community wants to hold a regional conference in Turkey and invite a number of groups and neighboring countries involved in Afghanistan before it holds the Bonn II conference. It is said that the conference can enable the Taliban to enter the political process in the country. Although the Americans have said that there is no place for the Taliban in the Bonn II conference, the government of Afghanistan has constantly emphasized that the Afghan delegation will be composed of one group under the umbrella of the government of Afghanistan. Karzai has extended an invitation to the Taliban to participate in the conference under these conditions.
Fifth, authoritarian circles within the government are trying to convince the United States and Western governments that the best solution to the crisis in the country is to negotiate with and give insurgent groups a share in the government. Therefore, the lengthy war is likely to come to an end through talks with these groups.
Sixth, the government of Afghanistan wants to convene a Loya Jirga or grand assembly of Afghans, which many analysts think would be a ceremonial event, to secure the agreement of the Jirga to the joint declaration with the United States and thus pave the way for the Taliban to enter the government.
Seven, Americans are not satisfied with what has happened in Afghanistan in the past 10 years and by having a regional ally they want to rid themselves of the need to spend heavy sums of money. It is not important for them as to who will ensure their interests as long as their interests are ensured.
Eighth, President Karzai embarked on a tour of Saudi Arabia shortly prior to Id ul-Fitr citing umrah (pilgrimage to the Holy Kaba in Saudi town of Mecca) as the reason, but Saudi Arabia had previously assembled a number of other Afghan groups. The statement by the Office of the President about Hamid Karzai's trip had alluded to talks with Saudi officials for peace in Afghanistan.
Ninth, these show that fresh efforts are being made to maintain the status quo while at the same time find a solution for Afghanistan. This can stand in blatant contradiction with the achievements of the international community in the past 10 years in Afghanistan. These new developments can also jeopardize true peace and sideline the enlightened and pro-reform forces in the country.

General Kayani's Washington Visit and US-Pak Cooperation

At present, the entire Pakistan is under the threat of terrorism, which appears to be without end. However, far way from this bloodshed, some decisions are being taken in Washington and the GHQ (General Headquarters) in Rawalpindi that will determine the future of Pakistan in the days to come.

In pursuit of its political objectives, the United States is attempting to devise a broader strategy for the war against terror under which the Pakistani military will get the opportunity to play the leading role. The main goal of this strategy is to bring down the Taliban and Al-Qa'ida and also to eliminate the Pakistani groups associated with this network. The primary focus of this strategy is to isolate Taliban's supreme commander Mullah Omar in order to force him to negotiate with the United States and pave the way for the US withdrawal.

Pakistan will hold a key position in this whole planning and the last month's arrest of Mullah Omar's deputy Mullah Beradar is part of the same planning. The Pakistani military will play a central role in this whole plan, and General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani's visit to the United States was meant for the same purpose. That is why General Kayani, the Pakistan Army chief, is the main focus of the US attention.

56-Page Document
The main point of the strategic dialogue between the United States and Pakistan held in Washington was to guarantee Pakistan's role in the Afghan conflict and take decisions to eradicate the terrorism network. It has become clear after this dialogue that the United States wants to withdraw from Afghanistan and it requires Pakistan's assistance in this regard.

Pakistan was aware of what did the United States want. Therefore, a 56-page document was prepared after consultation with the military officials, which talked about what Pakistan wants from the United States and the concerns that are prevalent in Pakistan with reference to the United States. This document was handed over to the United States before the strategic dialogue. Pakistan mentioned the sacrifices, which it has given in the war against terror and also put forward its demands before the United States.

These demands include the transfer of nuclear technology from the United States to Pakistan, acknowledgment of Pakistan's status of a Muslim nuclear power, Pakistan's involvement in talks regarding the future of Afghanistan and the US funding for water projects to resolve the power crisis in Pakistan. In addition to these, issues like additional aid for Pakistan under the coalition support fund, release of blocked funds, supply of drone technology to Pakistan, pressure on India to resolve the Kashmir issue, and the US intrusion in the matter concerning blockage of Pakistani water were also talked about in this 56-page document.

Resolving Disputes With India
Pakistan demanded of the United States to supply gunship helicopters, spy planes, and other warfare equipment to be used in fight against the Taliban and requested for increased cooperation between the intelligence agencies of the two countries. In addition to this, concerns were raised over India's military preparation and procurement of weapons from the United States. Pakistan also requested Washington to play a direct role in restoring the peace process between India and Pakistan that has been brought to a standstill after the Mumbai attacks in November 2008.

The main point of this document was to ensure Pakistan's safety on the eastern borders. It has further stated with regard to issues that Pakistan's strategic interests will continue to clash with the US strategic interests in the region, and Pakistan will only be able to take limited action against the Taliban until Pakistan's safety is guaranteed on its eastern borders.

This document has left the US officials in jeopardy. The document was debated in the US Department of State and it was decided where to favor Pakistan and where not to. Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi led the delegation consisting of Defense Minister Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar, General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, chief of the Army staff, senior advisers and secretaries of different ministries. However, the US delegation consisted of Defense Secretary Robert Gates, Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and other high-ranking officials.

These negotiations took place in a pleasant atmosphere. The United States accepted most of Pakistan's demands. However, the United States refused to accept some, for instance, it refused to play a role in resolving the water dispute with India, and said that this dispute between the two countries was 50-year-old. The United States has accepted Pakistan's demand to ensure that the Pakistani products have access to the US markets. The US ambassador to Islamabad has also ruled out the possibility of civil nuclear agreement with Pakistan, which shows that the United States is not providing civil nuclear technology to Pakistan.

Pakistan's Security Needs
The biggest achievement of this dialogue is the assurance given to the military leadership by the US officials that the United States will fulfill its vows regarding Pakistan's security needs, and will provide latest equipment as well as drone technology to Pakistan. This assurance was given during General Kayani's meeting with Robert Gates and Admiral Mike Mullen.

According to a statement issued by the Pentagon, bilateral defense issues were the main focus of General Kayani's meeting with Robert Gates and Mike Mullen. The US defense secretary assured General Kayani that the United States will fulfill Pakistan's security requirements in the war against terror on urgent basis, ensure that drone technology and modern equipment and weapons are provided to Pakistan, and all promises are fulfilled. General Kayani talked about the needs of the Pakistani security forces, regional security and stability, new US Afghan policy, and outcome of the Helmand Operation to this point during this meeting with Robert Gates.

US Withdrawal From Afghanistan
According to a senior US military official, who was part of the recent meetings with General Kayani and other Pakistani officials, Pakistan knows that there is not much time left for the United States to directly assist Islamabad. He claimed that General Kayani focused all of his attention on establishing cooperation between the Pakistani and Afghan Governments at a time when the United States is reducing the number of troops and investment in Afghanistan. Most importantly, India has rejected the idea of any third-party mediation in the decade-old disputes between India and Pakistan.

It will not be wrong to declare these negotiations as a success for Pakistan. The United States is currently in a weak position and hence it is possible to make it accept some other demands as well. The United States should pay a price for withdrawal from Afghanistan. Perhaps this is the reason why attempts are being made by the United States to make General Kayani the most powerful personality in Pakistan's military history, so that he can improve the political situation in Pakistan without doing any harm to the present democratic system.

US Objectives
The US objectives are behind this whole planning and since Pakistan's military has to play the most important role in this whole planning, attempts are being made to improve and strengthen relations with the military.

Even the extremist groups are not unaware of this planning and they are preparing to play the final round of their fight. The biggest target of the extremists is the Pakistani military and that is why there has been a rise in attacks on the military. The Pakistani military also knows that the next face of the Afghan war will not be short of resistance. Let's see who will play the cards right in this game.

US Rulers Seem Divided on Maintaining Peace in Afghanistan

Afghanistan has never been peaceful for the past long history. At times, the fight among tribal chiefs lingered on and sometimes imperialistic forces occupied various parts of it with the intention of grabbing the remaining territory.
In between, peace prevailed for a couple of decades. One such period was when a pro-Soviet regime remained in power that irked US citizens. They prepared a mujahidin force in neighboring Pakistan and toppled the Najibullah-led government in the wake of its losing the Russian patronage after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Later, they silently witnessed the rise of the Taliban and fall of the mujahidin. Until then it was an ordinary move of global diplomacy for US rulers.

Changing Face of Action
Then the times underwent a change. Under the patronage of the Taliban regime Al-Qa'ida terrorist organization was raised. Even after that, the US Government failed to comprehend the situation. Realization dawned over it, however, when an Al-Qa'ida-sponsored attack was launched on the World Trade Center in New York. Then, it became a prestige issue for the United States. Then President George W. Bush carried out a military offensive against Afghanistan.
The war triggered by Bush continues to be waged until now. His successor Barack Obama has come to realize that the end of the war is not yet discernible. The coffin boxes carrying dead bodies of US military men arrived in the United States. The unrest in the United States and the problems of the US administration continue. The United States has not succeeded in crushing the Al-Qa'ida and its supporter Taliban terrorists even by chasing them right up to Pakistan's interior.
In such a scenario, the US Government has now opted for talks. Tired of the prolonged war, its allies also now favor talks. The United Nations also is contributing to it. In the ongoing talks, the path of distinguishing the "good Taliban" and "bad Taliban" has been adopted as a part of fresh political tactics. Recognizing Mullah Omar, the Taliban chief, as a partner of Osama Bin Laden, he is being kept at a distance from the talks. Foreign Minister of the then Taliban regime, Wakil Ahmed Muttawakil, has been recognized as a symbol of "good Taliban" and, hence, has been released from prison. The talks will focus on how far Muttawakil is different from the rest of the Taliban.

Maintaining Peace
Earnest people across the world favor maintenance of peace in Afghanistan. But, US rulers do not seem to be united on this point even at such a juncture. Its direct evidence is that in order to pave the path for talks the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) once again is being used as a contact factor, which until a week ago was described by US rulers as the main contention.
The US investigators projected the links of David Headley, the prime accused of the Mumbai attack, with an ISI Major as responsible for the attack. If they proceed further with the talks through the same ISI mediation, then only good wishes can be offered.
Meanwhile, India is being kept aloof from the whole process. India has to its credit a major contribution to the rehabilitation work for Afghanistan after the widespread bloodshed caused there. A member of Indian engineers, offices, and laborers laid down their lives during the reconstruction of the country. All this has been forgotten. All this service notwithstanding, the Indian Government has agreed to extend cooperation.

Role of India
It is astonishing that Pakistan has been involved in the talks in spite of the fact that it pays less attention to its due responsibility than using the occasion against India. Its rulers are daily issuing statements that the Indian Government intends to target Pakistan by strengthening its position in Afghanistan. Earnestness is not a one-way traffic.
The US Administration and its allies should understand the fact that the entire India would tolerate its exclusion from talks, but if Pakistani rulers persisted with their approach of abusing this process also, then it will not be possible for it to keep silent. While this cannot be expected of Pakistan realizing the stark reality, countries extending patronage to it will have to comprehend the ground situation.