Monday, November 9, 2009

Iran-Pakistan Conflict Intensifies

The most likely country that has the intention to stage a war against Iran is not Pakistan but the United States or Israel or any other Western nation. Pakistan will not be on the top-ten list of countries likely to use force on Iran. As such, if a war breaks out between Iran and Pakistan, a third country will quickly enter the fray.

Possibility of US Involvement
If Iran-Pakistan conflict intensifies, the possibility of US involvement in this round of Iranian-Pakistan conflict is high. After all, the intention to overturn the rule of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the Iranian leader has long been on the US agenda. Although US President Barack Obama and former US President George W. Bush's foreign policy are different, but their desire to get rid of Ahamadinejad is the same.
In addition to this, the involvement of the United States in Iran-Pakistan affairs can also give the United States good opportunity to probe into level of the Iranian nuclear weapon development situation. This is also part and parcel of the unfinished US foreign policy objective in that part of the world.
Moreover, staging war with another nation is not the strength of Pakistan also. In the past 60 years, Pakistan did engage war with India but its war achievement had nothing good to comment about.

Border Warfare
Although Pakistan did make great effort to make nuclear weapons, its nuclear weapons are clearly targeted at India, not at Iran. As such, Pakistan probably knows that it is unwise for it to reveal its military and nuclear strength to Iran if a border war breaks out with Iran. In this regard, if for some reason the United States wants to intervene with its border warfare with Iran, the Pakistani Government will be happy to allow the United States to offer military assistance and to let the United States do the job for Pakistan to ward off military advances from Iran if tension between Iran and Pakistan intensifies.
Although it is but hearsay of the United States to accuse Iran of having or developing nuclear weapons, but if the United States really wants to get involved in the possible Iran-Pakistan battlefield, the United States will also assume that Iran is a country with nuclear weapon facilities already. The United States will probably want to treat Iran as it had handled the former Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq before. In tackling Iran, the United States will probably want to take control of air power by sending its military aircrafts to bombard the virtual nuclear weapon facilities in Iran to destroy all the possible nuclear weapon development sites (or imaginary nuclear weapon sites) in Iran first before moving its ground troops from the Pakistan-Iran border.

Nationalism Sentiment
But if the United States begins to get involved in the Iran-Pakistan warfare, the United States might stir up nationalism sentiment in Iran. Then Ahmadinezad will become a national hero and such scenario will allow Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to use the blood and flesh of the Iranians to resist the US invasion. Yet the United States must bear in mind that Iran's Revolutionary Guard force is much stronger than Saddam's National Guard force.
Of course, one cannot rule out the possibility that the Iranian leader Ahmadinejad might also take pre-emptive measure to tackle the United States also. For example, Iran can, through the Afghanistan and Iraq alliance guerrillas, carry out suicide bombing on US troops on one side and on the other side, Iran might make use of the Hezbollah force in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine to prevent any advancement of Israeli army in order to diverge the attention of US forces if the border war between Iran and Pakistan break out. When this happens it will become a clash between the West and the Islamic world.
Without any doubt, if the United States really wants to get involved in Iranian-Pakistani conflict, the military strength is clearly on the US side. But Ahmadinejad is not Saddam Hussein. This is also a reality.

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