US and British Forces in Afghanistan

Official figures issued by the British Defense Ministry indicate that 20 soldiers have been killed in the ongoing war in Afghanistan since the beginning of July. The figure is high by all standards because it brings up to about 200 the number of only the British soldiers who have been killed since the beginning of this war eight years ago.

The British people who have been following these figures and their significance began to feel uneasy about these figures that are repeated almost on a daily basis. They also feel uneasy about the lack of any official clarification by their government of the policies that are followed in Afghanistan and the logical reasons for the continuation of these policies even though they began to be counterproductive in most cases.

What also worries the British public opinion and some prominent writers in the British media is that the labor government, through statements by its Prime Minister Gordon Brown and the foreign and defense ministers, asserts that victory is inevitably coming, while the facts on the ground completely contradict these statements.

Strong Hold of Taliban Movement
Some people may argue that the rise in the number of the dead among the British soldiers is attributed to the current NATO forces' attack on the Taliban Movement's stronghold in the Helmand Province where the Pashtun Tribe to which the Taliban Movement belongs resides.

They may also argue that these human losses are the result of an advance and victories achieved on the ground. But these victories are temporary and the result of an accurate tactic used by the Taliban Movement. Using this tactic, the movement withdraws from before the huge Western military machine and then resumes the attack on it in qualitative commando operations of the "hit and run" style.

The US Administration increased the number of its troops in Afghanistan to more than 68,000 and asked its ally, Britain, to dispatch 2,000 additional soldiers, but the latter sent only 800 soldiers. Britain sent these soldiers amid intensive criticisms by the military and the media that cast doubt on the success of this move and speak about the British forces' bad armament.

However, the increase in the number of the troops means an increase in the number of the dead in the ranks of these forces and in the ranks of the Taliban Movement. Nevertheless, this increase does not mean that achieving the goal, in other words, destroying the Taliban Movement, has become imminent. The reason is that this increase might lead to temporary victories but these victories will evaporate in the long run, exactly like the situation that we saw in Iraq one way or another following the formal US withdrawal from major cities, namely from the capital, Baghdad.

US Big Gamble
The US President Barack Obama is making a big gamble by making Afghanistan the "jewel in the crown" of his administration's foreign policy, because achieving an accomplishment in this country that has resisted all invaders seems near impossible, if not truly impossible.

The British Government made a grave mistake when it followed the George W. Bush Administration and served as its largest partner in the war on Iraq. And perhaps it will make a bigger and graver mistake by following the present Obama Administration and sinking deeper in the mud of the war in Afghanistan. This is particularly true in light of the fact that the modern British history includes two bitter defeats in that country, and we would not be exaggerating if we said the third one is inevitably on its way.

Political or Diplomatic Solutions
The US and British officials began to admit that military force alone cannot achieve the desired results in Afghanistan, that is to say, to destroy Taliban. This is an important admission, but translating it into effective steps or policies on the ground remains arguable, particularly because those who seek political or diplomatic solutions count on the occurrence of a split within the Taliban Movement or the formation of awakening forces by winning over tribes that are hostile to Taliban.

However, it is difficult for a split to take place within the Taliban Movement because the cohesion of Taliban is based on tribal foundations. Besides, the statement that there is a moderate wing and an extremist one within Taliban has been proved to be untrue throughout the past 15 years, that is to say, nearly since the movement was founded.

As for the incitement of tribes the against Taliban and winning their leaders over with money and the formation of awakening forces, the Soviets made an attempt in this regard and so did the British, but the results were disappointing.

Nevertheless, a dialogue with Taliban in order to secure an honorable withdrawal and reduce the losses is the only way before Britain and the United States. And it is better to resort to this option early rather than late, exactly as was the case in Iraq, Vietnam, and other parts of the world.