Afghan Presidential Elections

The first round of Afghan presidential elections will prove to be a failure because none of the candidates will be able to get 50 per cent or more votes. Therefore, most probably, the Afghan president will be decided in the second round of the elections. The purpose of the presidential elections is to show the world community that, despite all odds, Afghanistan is progressing under American influence. Nevertheless, the majority of Afghans already know who their next president will be. They realize that American and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces have already decided the next Afghan President.

Voting will be held in 7,000 polling stations for more than three dozen candidates. For this purpose, the Afghan Election Commission has issued voting cards to more than fifteen million people so that they could cast their vote. For the very first time, American and NATO forces will perform security duties, under the supervision of the Afghan National Army, at polling stations and important roads. On the other hand, the Taliban are said to have prepared a plan to sabotage the presidential elections."

Taliban Factor
The Taliban have told the Afghan media that they will block all major roads in Southern and South-Eastern Afghanistan, with the added threat that they will carry out suicide attacks on polling stations and cut off the fingers of those who vote in the elections. According to the latest information, the Taliban have begun to implement their threats by blocking the main highways that link the Southern and South-Eastern provinces of Afghanistan. They have, also, blocked the main highway between Kabul and the southern province of Kandahar, as well as the main roads leading to Ghazni, Maidan, Wardag, Zabal, Logar, Khost, and Paktia.

The Taliban conduct a body-search of all people who travel on these roads. Despite the fact that it is the occasion of Afghan Independence, there is silence everywhere as people stay at home and keep off the streets. The people of the southern provinces have shown some enthusiasm during the election campaign compared to the capital Kabul and other areas, but they are also terribly scared of what might happen on election day.

Allied forces have made tremendous security arrangements to ensure that elections are held in a peaceful atmosphere. Snap checking and patrolling on the highways has been increased. It should be pointed out that direct elections for provincial councils are also being held along with the presidential elections. In addition to aerial patrolling, the election commission has hired seven thousand donkeys to deliver the ballot papers in hilly areas.

Focussing Urban Areas
According to the latest information, elections will be held in urban areas only, where Afghan and Allied forces can move swiftly. Conducting elections in rural Afghanistan is not possible where the Taliban occupy fifty percent of the area during the day and seventy five percent during the night. This fear was expressed by Afghan political and military authorities, as well as the international community.

The current elections are being organized by the Americans, who are paying all the expenses. America has also hired the services of ten thousand armed militia men, in addition to its own troops, for the purpose of holding the elections in a peaceful manner. This militia will perform the duties of securing the polling stations and the ballot boxes.

The Taliban could create problems for holding these elections. They have decided to sabotage the elections at all cost because they think that the elections are a means of providing a new life to foreign forces in Afghanistan. Although small anti-government militant groups in different parts of the country have announced a ceasefire during the election period, the overall situation remains grave. Many people are angry with the Afghan government and the allied countries for not allowing important opponents of the government, Gulbadin Hikmatyar of Hizb-e-Islami (Hikmatyar), and former jihadi Maulvi Jalaluddin Haqqani, to participate in the elections because they had opposed the presidential elections. People said that the government should have invited them both to participate in the elections.

In fact, America and the allied countries have allowed only those persons to participate in the elections who do not criticize America or the allied countries. The main contenders of the elections are former President Hamid Karzai, former Foreign Minister and nominee of the Northern Alliance, Dr Abdullah Abdullah, and former Finance Minister and ex Director of the World Bank, Dr Ashraf Ghani Ahmedzai. Hamid Karzai had full support of America and Britain when he was appointed Afghan President five years ago but, today he does not have the support of NATO countries. He has also failed to gain the support of the Afghan masses. He has maligned himself because of mass corruption in national institutions and, also, due to his involvement in drug smuggling run by his brothers.

During his five-year regime, the southern part of the country, which is mostly Pathan, was constantly targeted by Afghan and allied army operations. These operations also obstructed development programs in Southern and South-Eastern parts of Afghanistan. Karzai has selected two of his deputies for the present elections which has angered the majority of Pathan tribes. They include former head of the Afghan secret agency, KHAD, and former Defense Minister, and prominent leader of the Northern Alliance, General Qasim Fahim, and leader of the minority Hazara tribe, Mohammed Karim Khalili. To ensure his victory in the elections, Hamid Karzai has obtained the support of a prominent Northern Alliance leader and former Communist General, Abdur Rashid Dostam. Karzai allowed exiled Dostam to return to Afghanistan on condition of his support in the elections. It should be pointed out that a demand is being put forward for an investigation against General Dostam for killing thousands of unarmed Taliban towards the end of 2001.

Emerging Scenario
The position of Hamid Karzai is very weak because of all these factors. Moreover, his friend, General Pervez Musharraf, is also not present in Pakistan to support him. Pervez Musharraf had secured all the votes of the Afghan refugees based in Pakistan for Hamid Karzai during the previous elections."

According to political analysts, America does not trust Dr Abdullah Abdullah because he is a nominee of the Northern Alliance. He is well-connected with Iran, India and, especially, with Russia simultaneously, and is the common nominee of all parties included in the Northern Alliance. During the election campaign, he has threatened more than once that his supporters could become furious if he loses the presidential election, and that the law and order situation could further deteriorate. According to Dr Abdullah Abdullah, the elections could be massively rigged with the help of foreign powers, while his supporters would not tolerate these riggings.

According to most analysts on Afghanistan, America will arrange Hamid Karzai's defeat merely to shut Dr Abdullah Abdullah's mouth. This would pave the way for Dr Ashraf Ghani Ahmedzai's victory. Be as it may, the presidential elections will be completed in two phases since none of the candidates will be able to secure fifty percent or more votes in the first phase.