Sri Lankan Government Faces Defeat at Recent Northern Polls

Elections and democracy are two major components that are interlinked. However, there is a sensible debate in political circles today on whether the series of elections being held one after another in Sri Lanka, would at all help stabilize democracy in the country or would it turn other way round.

Government's Thinking
Some sections believe that there is an ulterior motive behind holding elections in Southern Sri Lanka. This agenda is apparently based on the Government's thinking that it can win any election at any given time.

The Government could well have conducted the elections on a single day as was done in the past instead of holding them at different times. Apparently the Government is wary of doing so as it fears such an all out election throughout the country would only damage its future political interests.

Southern Provincial Council Election was announced while the Uva Provincial Council election campaign was on. That rushed announcement calling for elections to the Southern Provincial council clearly disclosed the Government's electoral game plan.

Defeats in Consecutive Elections
When this Government assumed power in 2005, the main opposition United National Party [UNP] led by Ranil Wickremesinghe had suffered a series of defeats in consecutive elections and it was practically devastated.

The distraught state of affairs in the vanquished UNP naturally caused dissension and splits within the party. It could not stand united any more to encounter any of the elections that were thrown its way.

The defeats thus suffered by the UNP were a source of encouragement to the Government to hold the elections in phases hoping to further exploiting the situation.

As things stand now it appears that the UNP will not be able to win in any future elections held in the country. One factor that could lead to this sorry state is many members of the UNP regard their leader as their main adversary, but do not view their arch political opponent-the ruling alliance-as their real foe.

In this scenario it is really not a surprise to witness that numerous members within the party only long for the defeat of the party rather than its victory.

It is anybody's guess that the Government would deal its final blow to the UNP either at the forthcoming presidential or the general election or both. This is why there is no speculation at all in political circles today on the outcome of the elections, except for talk about the size of the victory.

However, there is speculation whether the Government would be able to secure the much desired two thirds majority at the parliamentary elections. This absolutely confident mindset of the Government victory across the country has been the result of the series of elections that were recently held in southern Sri Lanka. But we certainly say that it was not in an identical political backdrop, the elections in the North too were hastily conducted.

At the time when the elections were conducted in the North and even after conclusion of those elections queries from several sources were raised relating to the period in which those two elections were conducted.

It was argued that it was not proper to hold elections no sooner the war was concluded. Even we had pointed out in this column earlier that it was a faulty decision to conduct the elections in the North before normalcy returned to the district.

Attention on Humanitarian Issues
We reiterated that when the people focused their attention on humanitarian issues they were least worried of casting their votes. However, the Government was keen in conducting the elections somehow or other. The Government would have conducted the elections under two circumstances.

The Government would have thought that elections would be a driving force in establishing normalcy in the North as soon as the war was completed. Further, successful completion of elections would help the Government to claim that Tamils are no more inclined to nationalist sentiments but are concerned of revival of democratic way of life and restoration of normalcy.

The next reason was to feel the pulse of the Northern voters as to how they will vote in the event of the next Presidential Election, because the Presidential Election embraces the entire country.

The votes which could be amassed in Southern Sri Lanka are adequate to achieve a victory in the Presidential Election but not sufficient for a landslide victory which the Government hopes to reap. Especially, if Tamils cast their votes to the presidential candidate of the opposition party certainly it will pose a negative impact. Hence, the Government sought to assess the thinking of the Tamil electorates prior to fixing a date for the Presidential Election. Probably this was another reason that contributed for the elections conducted in haste in the North.

Shocking Message to Government
The pattern of voting conveyed a shocking message to the Government. A mere 18 percent of the voters cast their votes in the Jaffna Municipal Council election. When compared to the voter turn out in Jaffna's electoral history, this percentage of voting is most disturbing. Although it is stated that the southern electorates are tired of frequent elections more than 60 percent of the voters cast their votes in Uva.

We cannot still understand the genuine reason for such low turn out of voters in the North. Independent media was not permitted to cover these elections. As such we are only compelled to arrive at certain conclusions. Three reasons could be attributed to the decline in voting.

The register of voters in the Jaffna Municipal limits would not have been properly maintained. Secondly, it could have been the mass migration of voters during the period of war. A large number of people were killed. Registration of voters would not have been properly done during the period when the war continued.

People of Jaffna would not have displayed interest in the election. The reasons such as the losses they incurred during the war, necessity to liberate their relatives detained in camps and their anxiety to move out to places of their choice would have diverted their anxiety to vote.

Finally majority of the voters would have not voted to demonstrate their opposition to the Government regarding the way the war was concluded and the delay experienced in achieving a political solution to their long standing problem. This could be definitely considered to be the message of Tamil nationalism. If they had not been aggrieved by such sentiments, they would have voted at the election in large numbers, well wishing for the much hyped development projects in the North.

The voters' message coming from the Tamil regions signifying Tamil nationalism may not be lost on the Tamil National Alliance since it is the only political party that is there to stand up and be counted in raising its voice for the sake of the rights and aspirations of the Tamil community in the current political set up of the country.

Assessment
In other words, the northern election results seem to have definitely disappointed the Government. The town council election result in Vavuniya has not brought desirable results to the ruling party crashing its surmises and hopes. The low percentage of votes the Government party secured has practically negated the victory it obtained there.

These election results aptly show the level of the Government's popularity at national level. It is crystal clear that the Government has failed to garner support in the North which it could amass in the South. It could have a noteworthy effect on the Government's dreams and aspirations in the elections conducted at national level.

If the Presidential Election is conducted in the current backdrop, the Tamil votes will definitely be an impediment to the winning chance of the Government.