The largest ever number of presidential candidates in the history of this country is contesting the coming presidential election to be held on 26 January. Nominations for the election were accepted on 17 December. The Election Commission announced nominations had been registered from 22 contenders with one being rejected.
Significant Election
The coming presidential election in considered to be significant in several aspects. The United National Party [UNP], which has contested all elections since independence has for the first time in its own history not fielded a party candidate to contest the election, but is instead supporting a common candidate of an opposition alliance led by the party.
The contest at the election is set to be a close tussle between two main candidates who have emerged as the most powerful contenders. This has turned out to be another crucial aspect of the election. It will be no surprise if this election runs into the second count of preferential votes to come up with the winner.
As far as the election law of Sri Lanka is concerned, if a candidate fails in the first count to secure 50 percent of the votes polled, the second count of preferential votes has to be done to decide on the winner. This would be a new factor in the election history of Sri Lanka because there has been no precedent for a need of a second count. The previous highest number of presidential candidates at one election has been 13.
Thirteen candidates contested presidential elections in 1999 as well as in 2005. Only three candidates contested the 1988 presidential election. This is the lowest number of candidates at a presidential election. Twenty-two candidates contesting the presidential election to be held next year is a new record. Of the two main presidential candidates Mahinda Rajapaksa or Sarath Fonseka will win the election and the other 20 candidates are well-aware of this fact.
Then, why are they contesting? There are several reasons that can be attributed for this, the most important one being that of splitting votes to deprive both leading candidates of a majority in the first count.
Their next objective is that no other candidate or party should get votes from their electorate. Their thinking is that the votes, which could be potentially polled against Mahinda Rajapaksa should not be secured by Sarath Fonseka and those votes of supporters of the UNP and Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna [JVP] who do not want to cast their votes to Fonseka should not vote for Rajapaksa. It is on the basis of this train of thought that a large number of candidates is contesting the coming presidential election.
Although a large number of candidates is contesting this election it is very doubtful as to whether they will be able to even save their deposits or at best draw 100,000 votes each.
Tamil Vote Bank
The Tamil vote bank has become indispensably valuable to two main candidates. There is a reasonably conducive atmosphere, in which Tamils can go to the polls as compared with the atmosphere that existed back in 1988.
While the chief presidential candidates are in the field exploiting the military victory, the main question that begs and answer is : For which candidate will the Tamil people, who are subjected to the miseries and sufferings of war, vote this time.
The number of registered voters in the north is 1 million. Similarly, as per the census conducted in the year 2007 the number of registered Tamil voters in the east is 400,000. Therefore, approximately 1,300,000 voters are eligible to cast their votes in the North and East. Leaving them aside there is also a considerable number of Tamil voters living in Colombo and its outskirts.
In these circumstances, election analysts say, the candidate who secures the Tamil vote will win the election. But Tamil voters have no particular desire to have any truck with either of the two main candidates. Both of them have earned a good measure of animosity and hatred from the Tamil community. It is against this backdrop that every one awaits anxiously the decision that the Tamil voter will finally take.
Sivajilingam, Tamil National Alliance [TNA] MP, is also contesting the election as an independent candidate and his objective might be that of securing the votes of Tamils who are in the bitter grip of hatred toward the two main contenders. Similarly there are also three Muslim candidates in the presidential election to further divide the votes of the Muslim voters who do not favor the candidacy of both Fonseka and Rajapaksa.
Former MP Illiyas is contesting as an independent candidate. Myown Mustapha, who was holding the portfolio of deputy higher education minister, is also contesting as an independent candidate. He crossed over from the UNP to the ruling party. As such he might divide the Muslim votes of the UNP.
In addition to these two candidates another Muslim candidate called Ismail is also contesting the election on the Democratic United National Front [DUNF] ticket.
Since three Muslim candidates are contesting there is a possibility of the Muslim votes being split. Another fact with regard to the main Muslim parties is that they are either with the ruling alliance or with the UNP. Meanwhile, Wickremabahu Karunaratne, leader of the New Left Front, will also divide the votes of Tamils.
In sum, there are Sinhala candidates to divide the votes of the Sinhala people and Tamil candidates to divide Tamil votes. As such, the possibilities of all votes being divided are many. The minor candidates can only hope for creating a negative impact only at the point of the first count. It is at this point that the second count becomes significant.
In the face of the claim made by the main political parties that they will abolish the presidential system of government this could well turn out to be the last presidential election we will see. A total of 14,088,500 persons are eligible to cast their votes at the election this time.
Of these voters 1,955,312 voters do not have identity cards. The relevant statistics are for districts other than Jaffna.
Election Law Specification
The election law specifies that those who do not possess identity cards cannot cast their votes and should this be rigidly applied a large number of Sri Lankans would be deprived of their right to vote. Similarly, 190,000 easterners also do not have national identity cards. Meanwhile, 42 percent of the voters in Vavuniya District is said not to have identity cards.
However, the election secretariat states that action is being taken to issue special identity cards to those who do not have national identity cards. We, however, do not know how far this would be fruitful. Tamil voters might especially be deprived of voting or they would deliberately give the election a miss.
Although there are more than 20,000 displaced civilians in Jaffna, less than 1,000 voters have applied to cast their votes. This is a clear example to show Tamil voters are not keen on the election. The international community is as keenly interested as we all are to know, which way the Tamil vote will go. This election will help all concerned to arrive at conclusions about certain long outstanding doubts and questions.
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