19th ASEAN Summit

The 19th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit, gathering heads of state or government from 10 ASEAN member states – Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore and Vietnam – was held in Bali (Indonesia) on November 17–19. The summit, themed "ASEAN Community in a Global Community of Nations", is chaired by Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.
After some 12 months of intense meetings and activities, which left a new landmark in ASEAN's history, Indonesia handed over the chair of the group to Cambodia today.
Visibly proud of what Indonesia's achievements over the past year, President Yudhoyono handed over the symbolic gavil to Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen. The simple but dignified ceremony was heralded by a short video of the highlights of ASEAN 2011.
For many delegates in the audience – particularly the exhausted staff of the ASEAN Secretariat – it was a moment of nostalgia, relief, and pride, as they were reminded of the activities which they had slogged for.
Bali Declaration
Leaders of the 19th ASEAN Summit stressed high political determination and the allocation of necessary resources to implement on schedule the process to build the ASEAN Community on three pillars. They also stressed the fully implementation of the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity, which is important in the process to build a consolidated ASEAN Community by 2015, considering it a leading priority in the cooperation within ASEAN and between ASEAN and its partners.
Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung asked ASEAN to continue boosting cooperation and proper investment in such fields as narrowing the gap of development, promoting security, energy, and food security as well as boosting cooperation to effectively deal with emerging challenges, namely climate change, maritime security, environment, the sustainable use of water sources of rivers, especially the Mekong river to contributing to sustainable and uniform development in the region.
On ASEAN Connectivity, the PM stressed the significance of the full implementation of the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity in the process of building the ASEAN Community by 2015, saying that this continues to be the top priority in ASEAN cooperation as well as cooperation between ASEAN and its partner countries.
The Vietnamese prime minister added: “The group needs to efficiently implement agreements and commitments on trade liberalization, facilitation of goods and services transactions, investment and people-to-people exchanges, an initial study on implementation of ASEAN Travel Cards for ASEAN citizens, as well as special immigration desks for regional citizens at international border gates of the member countries.”
The Bali Summit addressed a broad range of issues impacting the region such as global economy, G20 Summit, disaster management, climate change, food and energy security, regional integration, among others, and adopted several outcome documents, including the Bali Declaration on ASEAN Community in a Global Community of Nations.
Foreign Ministers’ Meet
The ASEAN foreign ministers have agreed on the need for talks with Beijing over the South China Sea dispute.
After the meeting, Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa said that ASEAN seeks dialogue with China over the maritime issue. He also said the foreign ministers were encouraged by Myanmar's attempts at reforms, as Napyidaw says it will release more prisoners under an amnesty deal.
ASEAN-UN Engagement
At the fourth ASEAN-UN Summit, the ASEAN leaders and UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon reviewed the implementation of the decisions of the previous summit, which took place in Hanoi in October 2010.
The ASEAN leaders spoke highly of the support of the UN and its agencies for ASEAN in building the Community, realising the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), strengthening regional connectivity, narrowing the development gaps and boosting the development of subregions, especially the Mekong Subregion, improving the capacity to cope with climate change and natural disasters, reduce poverty and prevent diseases as well as boosting the reasonable and sustainable exploitation and use of water resources.

Fifth East Asia Summit

The fifth East Asia Summit (EAS), held on 30 October at the Vietnamese capital Hanoi, was chaired by Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung and attended by Leaders of ASEAN countries, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and India. Also in presence were Russian Foreign Minister and US Secretary of State who represented their respective Presidents as special guests of the chair and participated at the last session of the Summit.

Hanoi Declaration
The Leaders reaffirmed the agreed principles, objectives and modalities of the EAS and adopted the Hanoi Declaration on the Commemoration of the Fifth Anniversary of East Asia Summit, in which they reiterated their commitment for continued efforts to enhance dialogue and cooperation and set out direction and priority of development for the next period.

The Leaders agreed to intensify cooperation in five priority areas, namely education, finance, energy, disaster management and avian flu prevention, while exploring the possibilities of cooperation in some new areas like post-crisis recovery, sustainable development, climate change etc. The Leaders of EAS participating countries expressed support for the ASEAN Leaders' Statement on Human Resources and Skills Development for Economic Recovery and Sustainable Growth, which was adopted at the 17th ASEAN Summit, and affirmed their close coordination with ASEAN toward sustainable economic growth in the region. The EAS countries agreed to conduct further study on the possibility of establishing the East Asia Free Trade Area (EAFTA), in parallel with the Comprehensive Economic Partnership in East Asia (CEPEA) and tasked senior officials to work on the issue and submit concrete recommendations to the Leaders.

Regional and International Issues
The EAS Leaders exchanged views on regional and international issues of mutual interest, including closer coordination and consultation to prepare for the participation and contribution of the ASEAN Chair at the upcoming G20 Summit in Seoul, Korea, the situation on the Korean Peninsula, the global nuclear issue etc.

Recognizing the growing importance of the EAS in promoting dialogue and cooperation in the region, the EAS Leaders committed to further promote dialogue and cooperation on broad strategic political and economic issues for peace, stability and prosperity in East Asia, including dealing with traditional and non-traditional challenges, at the same time, support and assist the peaceful settlement of disputes on the basis of international laws.

The Leaders tasked the Ministers and senior officials to explore ways and means for the improvement of proper mechanism to effectively implement the Leaders' decisions towards an action-oriented EAS process.

The Leaders discussed the expansion of the East Asia Summit and the evolving regional architecture. The EAS Leaders supported ASEAN's view on the formation of a regional architecture, based on the existing regional cooperation processes and ensuring ASEAN centrality. The Leaders welcomed the pro-active participation and constructive contribution of external partners in dealing with emerging challenges facing the region. Taking into account the desire and the potential of contribution by Russia and the United States to this open and inclusive forum, the fifth EAS decided to officially invite Russia and the United States to participate in the EAS from 2011.

French President's Reconciliation Visit to China

Chinese President Hu Jintao on 29 April said on his three-day state visit China-France ties have "opened a new page" as French President Nicolas Sarkozy pays his second state visit to China। Hu and Sarkozy held about 50 minutes of private talks before starting their formal, large-scope talks which Hu described as "candid, friendly and productive" and reaching "many important agreements."

It is Sarkozy's fourth visit to China and his second state visit as French president। He paid his first state visit to China six months after taking office in May 2007. He attended the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympic Games and took part in the 7th Asia-Europe Meeting held in Beijing in 2008.

Four-Point Proposal for Bilateral Ties
To further upgrade the China-French comprehensive strategic partnership, Hu made a four-point proposal at his talks with Sarkozy। Hu said China hopes to work with France to maintain high-level exchanges and dialogue and consultations on major issues of common concern.

Hu also suggested both sides boost pragmatic cooperation। He said in addition to cooperation in traditional fields, the two sides should actively promote cooperation in energy saving, environmental protection, new energy, agriculture and farm produce processing, and among small and medium size businesses to seek long-term, stable and reciprocal common development.

The two countries should strengthen cultural exchanges, facilitate language education, two-way travel, and dialogue between each other's media and think tanks। China and France are expected to together meet local and global challenges to achieve a peaceful and stable international environment, citing reform of the international financial system, improving the global economic governance structure and coping with climate change.

The Chinese president said the Chinese side set a high value on the role the European Union (EU) play in international affairs and appreciates the constructive stance taken by the French side in promoting China-EU relations. France is the initiator of the reform of the global economic governance mechanism. Hu added China supports France's holding of next year's G20 summit.
France will hold the presidency of the G20 summit this November and host the 2011 summit।

Sarkozy said France was willing to work closely with China to ensure a successful summit। He said that China was a very important strategic partner of France and they both need to cooperate closely on major global issues such as pushing economic growth, and maintaining world peace.

Diplomatic Ties
The French president said that there was only one China in the world and that Taiwan and Tibet were both part of China। This is the policy France has been adhering to since the France-China diplomatic ties were established in 1964. There is no change in the policy.

The French president said France is willing to work with China to further beef up cooperation and exchanges in fields including peaceful use of nuclear energy, aviation, transport, environmental protection, finance, agriculture and culture.

East Asian Community Concept Reveals Complex Reality of Asian Region

In the big Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) family, when problems exist between Japan and the United States, the cordial family atmosphere has become somewhat embarrassing. More importantly, the logical thinking of the East Asian Community as proposed by Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama even at this stage of conventional thinking, is that this is an East Asian Community involving “ASEAN plus 3 (ASEAN plus Japan and South Korea) or “ASEAN 10 plus 1” political pattern.
However, for such a regional integrated community, China is cautious. However, ASEAN hopes for an East Asian Community to have a wider scope to include the United States and India. In addition, the United States wants to get involved in it as well. Under such situation, the connotation of Japan's East Asian Community concept becomes unclear. It is blurred in its context of extension and expansion. The East Asian Community concept mooted by the Japanese leader can become a utopia.

Continual Rise of China
The main reason is that within the internal East Asia region, countries have not formed enough consensuses about this East Asian community. When the opinion of China, Japan and South Korea over the formation of East Asian Community remain unclear; with ASEAN member countries having doubt or even fear the continual rise of China; and with the United States worries that its status in East Asia might be sidelined, Hatoyama's East Asian Community looks more than a deep water bomb testing the water, but in the end opening up the geopolitical complexity of the East Asian region.
It brings to the reality that while the formation of this “regional body” is not difficult, but for all countries within the East Asian Community to reach consensus over what the community should do together become extremely difficult.

US-China Relationship
In addition, the US-China relationship has also become increasingly more and more difficult to predict. Interestingly, in addition to contradiction that exists in the US-Japan ties, of late, the function of APEC has also carried with it a dramatic color between China and the United States triggered by a speech delivered by Singapore Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew in the United States over his “Asian balance theory.”
This speech by Lee was interpreted by the Chinese media as “the United States wants to contain China theory.” While it is meaningless to debate the merits and demerits on this issue, but this incident does confirm two facts. First, the Asia-Pacific framework is going through a process of fundamental change. But this change is not caused by the chain reaction of China's growing strength.

Growing US Interest in Asia
This new change has caused anxiety and shock to ASEAN countries as they look at their old pattern of operations; this change has also forced China and the United States to reexamine the role they should play in the Asia-Pacific region. Second, on the surface, the United States says that it hopes China will play a “leading role” in the region, but beneath the surface, it is the US intention to increase its contact with ASEAN region. The US's intention to return to Asia has become the accelerated diplomatic strategy of the United States.
Following the US accession into the "Treaty of Amity and Cooperation", the United States can now engage in “ASEAN 10 plus 1” dialogue with ASEAN region. In addition, the United States is also keen to improve its relationship with Myanmar, one of the ASEAN countries. But the progressive engagement of contact with ASEAN by the United States is regarded by some public opinion in China as the United States exerting pressure on China.
Moreover, when the relationship between the United States and ASEAN countries turned deeper each time through contacts, ASEAN member countries would always regard such deeper contact as their diplomatic achievement. This stems from the basic principle that as small nations ASEAN member countries want to hold on as a group “to keep warm” so that the best interests of ASEAN can fit well in the power balance between China and the United States.
The United States is still a strong power. Although China is also getting stronger as days go by, the Chinese Government does not exclude or reject the presence of the United States in ASEAN. But to the Chinese common people, they feel that perhaps the United States really has the intention to resist the influence of China in Asia. Of concern is that the Chinese people and the Chinese community might send out a message that is different from the Chinese official view about the United States. Such message coming from the Chinese community will create a communication pattern, whereby the official stance over the role of the United States in Asia is quiet, but the public opinions are making a lot of noses about it. As such, to the United States and ASEAN, both parties should understand the societal situation in China and to deal with public opinions coming from China calmly. They cannot habitually blame China as adopting “nationalism” over their remarks on ASEAN or on the United States."

Importance of APEC
In fact, both the United States and China have a broader dialogue mechanism in the form of China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue mechanism. Both countries are also more concerned on using the G20 Summit as their global platform. To both China and the United States, the importance of APEC has somehow faded vis-a-vis the G20 Summit and the bilateral strategic dialogue between them. At this APEC Summit held in Singapore, many of the problems or the media arguments between China and the United States were triggered by ASEAN issue only. A metaphor to describe this phenomenon is that: “It is like a small ASEAN making two big countries jealous of each other.”
However, the characteristic of APEC Summit is harmony. Although it is difficult to untie the knot of certain issues in the US-China relationship, but over wines and drinks, the national leaders of both countries can still hold their glasses and send cheers to each other. More importantly, at this APEC, China has already reminded the United States not to engage too much in trade protectionism. This is a prelude the Chinese leader given to President Obama as he begins his China tour.

International Community Reacts to Iran’s New Nuclear Plant Declaration

The final week of September has been an important one with respect to world politics and the world economy. On 24 September, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) session was held under the leadership of US President Barack Obama. Recently, the G20 Summit was held in the American state of Pittsburgh, which ended on a note similar to the previous conference held in April of this year: with new promises, new undertakings, and new programs.

Some events have emerged for the first time in the final days of September. For example, this is the first time ever that a US President has chaired a Security Council session. Libyan President Muammar Gaddafi has come to the United States for the first time in his forty years in power and he has addressed the United Nations General Assembly for the first time in his life, and has declared the role and performance of the Security Council on world matters as unsatisfactory. It has also been decided for the first time that in future, the G20 will replace G8 after its function ceases. Similarly, it is also during this week that for the first time a relatively severe reaction from world powers is being witnessed at the discovery of Iran's “secret” nuclear plant for uranium enrichment. On 27 September, Iran has also test-fired two short-range missiles about which it is said that this has been done with an aim to further strengthen Iran's defense capability. It is the view of some commentators that the range of these missiles may be as far as Israel and the US bases in the Gulf. Iran's nuclear program issue, therefore, appears to be taking a new turn.

Threat of Nuclear Weapons
To reduce the global threat of nuclear weapons, the 15-member states of the UNSC have agreed on a resolution for a joint strategy. In his presidential address, Obama has stated: "Although we have remained safe from nuclear disasters during the Cold War, we are now faced with a complex situation with regard to nuclear proliferation. It is, therefore, necessary to chart a new plan and strategy." On this occasion, Obama also said that by the use of a single nuclear weapon in a single city, hundreds of thousands of people could be annihilated. This one city could even be New York or Moscow, Tokyo or Beijing, or London or Paris. Referring to a quote by Ronald Reagan, he told the session: "A nuclear war cannot be won [so] it should never be fought."

The voicing of such sentiments by Obama is surely a welcome development. Welcoming the resolution, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said that through this, a clear and united message had been conveyed to the world that the leaders of countries with nuclear weapons and of those countries without nuclear weapons were united and unanimous today in ridding the world of the problem of nuclear weapons.

Western Countries Stand
Iran's announcement that it has a second uranium enrichment plant has given various Western countries further cause to put pressure on Iran. Therefore, the chance of positive developments in talks between Germany and five other world powers on 1 October have further reduced. Presently, this situation appears to be taking an increasingly complicated turn, whereby we shall view it in light of a statement made by Teheran according to which Iran will not accept any compromises on the issue of enrichment.

On the occasion of the G20 Summit, Obama, Brown, and Nicolas Sarkozy said in a joint statement that following the revelation of another nuclear plant in Iran, not only had there been increased apprehension, but it had also led to violations by Iran of the UNSC decisions.

Prior to this, the leaders of the United States, France, and the United Kingdom revealed in a joint briefing that they had provided detailed evidence relating to a nuclear plant near the Iranian city of Qum to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Simultaneously, Iran had been warned that if it did not fulfill its international responsibilities, strict economic sanctions could be enforced against it.

New Nuclear Facility
The revelation of Iran's new nuclear facility came when the G20 Summit and the UNSC session ended on one hand, while on the other, as it has been mentioned before, Iran is about to have negotiations with six world powers on the issue of its nuclear program. In one respect, therefore, the apprehensions of the world leaders are not unfounded. Iran has previously been a source of much aggravation for western powers, the United States in particular, so the risk of tensions in bilateral relations after the revelation of the new nuclear plant has increased. In addition, missile tests and the testing of a launcher with the capability to fire more than one missile have also been carried out, which has already heated up relations between the West and Iran.

Israel has also felt the intensity of this heat. The Israeli foreign minister has pleaded with the Western powers that they should adopt a clear and decisive position against this new situation that has developed. He has said that the presence of this uranium enrichment plant proves that Iran definitely wants to build nuclear weapons. He has further stated that they have been saying all along that Iran is speeding up its nuclear activity for military purposes and following the revelation of the nuclear plant, their fears have been vindicated.

Iran's stance, however, is that the purpose of its nuclear program is to produce electricity. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad has said that their program was in no way a “secret”; they are ready to have it inspected by the inspectors of the IAEA. Referring to the rules of the IAEA, they have said that it was necessary to inform the mentioned agency six months before beginning the process of uranium enrichment, whereas according to them, they had made the declaration 18 months before hand. The clear implication of this is that there is currently no enrichment taking place at the plant.

If this incidentally is the situation and the IAEA rules are indeed so, the question that arises is: Why do the United States, the West, Israel, and various other powers need to create such uproar about it? One possible reason for this could be that these powers do not believe the statement by the Iranian leadership that Iran has not yet begun the process of enriching uranium. The other possibility is that, in their view, the legal position of Iran is weak. The third and final possibility is that under no circumstance do the world powers wish to view Iran as an emerging state on the world stage, the kind of state that is militarily strong and whose political, economic, social, and cultural foundations are also firm. There is no ambiguity in that a strong Iran is an impediment to the US imperial agenda. The third reason for the hue and cry is, therefore, political, and the truth is that it is also the most important reason.

Subsidiary Arrangement
Here, it is also worth mentioning that in 2003, Iran had consented over the Subsidiary Arrangement in the spirit of which it was mandatory to inform the IAEA at the initial stages of preparing a uranium enrichment plant. It was also in 2003 that Iran signed the Additional Protocol based on which the IAEA was given the authority to inspect the location. Subsequently, however, Iran reneged on both the above-mentioned agreements in 2006 and 2007. Concerning the former agreement, the IAEA states that this kind of unilateral rejection is not legally permissible, but Iran has maintained a single stance for suspending both agreements that permission could not be obtained from the parliament, which is a mandatory condition for international agreements. Moreover, Iran also insists that it will continue to act on the rules and regulations of the NPT and that it is the IAEA's prerogative to delegate itself additional authority. In reality, this is the procedure whereby a politically clear situation appears to be falling victim to legal ambiguity. Iran's belief that demands for halting uranium enrichment through the UNSC resolutions is not a legal, rather a political issue, is a meaningful point. There is no doubt that legal details are not more important than political actions and political considerations.

The Bleak Future Ahead
The revelation of a new nuclear plant can also be seen as an action by Iran against the United States, the West, and Israel. This reaction by Iran, which has remained under constant by the US pressure and its allies since 9/11, was not inconceivable. If Iran adopts an even more severe stance in its reaction, the comprehensive negotiations of 1 October fail, its legal position is also proven weak, and if Iranian President Ahmedinejad adopts an inflexible and uncooperative attitude. Worried by economic restrictions, will they accept some compromise on their nuclear program? Or will the United States or Israel wage war against Iran? In the view of commentators, a war by the United States against Iran is impossibility, although executing an attack through Israel cannot be ruled out.

If a situation to wage war against Iran from anywhere develops [God forbid], the statistics provided by the World Bank on the occasion of the G20 Summit on the political, economic, and social condition of humans inhabiting this earth could become a hundred times more horrendous: "Owing to economic shock, poor and extremely insecure people have reached a most dangerous turn in their lives: many homes have been sacrificed at the altar of poverty and desperation, health care facilities have suffered the most, there has been a decline in the number of children going to school, and the progress cycle in other areas of life has stopped or is moving in reverse."