Phuea Thai Party core members have shed their tears of joy after their party scored a clear majority victory, winning 265 MPs. But several problems, caused by factors both inside and outside the party, are lying ahead of female prime minister-designate Yinglak Chinnawat.
Several core members of the Phuea Thai realized that it is not easy for the five-party coalition government with 299 MPs to stay in office until it completes the four-year term without facing major obstacles.
War of Political Conflicts
The country is still in the war of political conflicts while major power realignment is taking place in the Thai society. In particular, the results of the election showed that the Phuea Thai won the hearts of many grassroots people in the North and Northeast but it still failed to win support of the middle-class people in the capital.
The Phuea Thai won 265 House seats but failed to seize control of the capital. It was beaten by the Democrat Party in Bangkok at the rate of 10 to 23 MPs. This should serve as a reminder that if Yinglak fails to please the middle-class people by failing to tackle economic woes and by making mistakes in her administration, the city residents could lose faith in her very fast.
To remain popular and remain in office as long as possible, the government must be able to win support from all classes, not only the grassroots. The government must also win support from the middle-class and high-class people and former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has learned this lesson bitterly.
Tough Time Ahead
Survival of Yinglak and the Phuea Thai-led government will depend on her ability to tackle so many problems, which are waiting for her. The lack of political experience is a major weak point that may cause Yinglak to fail to pilot her government ship to the shore.
Unlike Yinglak, the two previous proxy prime ministers of Thaksin - Samak Sunthorawet and Somchai Wongsawat - had experience in country administration quite a lot.
Late Samak was a veteran politician, who had a lot of experience from several election contests. He also had rhetoric but he eventually succumbed to the pressure from the opponents. His government could last for only nine months before the Constitution Court disqualified him as the prime minister for working as a TV host in a cooking program. Somchai, a brother-in-law of Thaksin, stayed in office as the prime minister for only three months before he faced a legal case for ordering the crackdown on protesters led by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) on 7 October. Eventually, the Constitution Court dissolved the People Power Party, leading to power realignment that saw the Democrat becoming the government.
It is worth waiting to see whether inexperienced Yinglak will be able to withstand all the pressures. Will her strong points, which are her gender, her humbleness and her willingness to compromise, help her survive?
Major Adversaries
Of course, the condition in this battle for Yinglak has changed a lot. But several characters, who stand on the opposite side from Thaksin, remain unchanged. They include the PAD and the Army, which remain Thaksin's major adversaries until now. A factor that could affect the survival of the Yinglak government is amnesty for Thaksin. Although Yinglak and Thaksin have insisted that no amnesty would be given for a single person, it could be seen that an amnesty would definitely be given eventually. They likely to grant a blanket amnesty for all cases happened after the 19 September 2006 coup. A new constitution-drafting assembly may be assigned to draft a new charter with a provisional clause to grant the amnesty.
And the immediate problem Yinglak will face is to satisfactorily share benefits inside the Phuea Thai. Earlier, Thaksin has used several Phuea Thai and red-shirt leaders to fight for him in the war for power, causing several of them to face legal cases. As a result, after the war has been won, these Phuea Thai and red-shirt leaders hope to receive rewards from the big boss.
Whi le there are several persons waiting for the rewards, the Phuea Thai will have only 27 to 28 Cabinet seats for sharing after giving the others to four coalition partners. Lessons from the past showed that when a major party allocated Cabinet seats, rifts often occurred after all factions could not be satisfied. The People Power was an example, which showed that rifts from Cabinet seat sharing caused it to eventually fall during the Samak term.
But if Thaksin allows red-shirt leaders and Phuea Thai core members, who are facing legal cases, to become Cabinet members, the new Cabinet will lack public trust. The Phuea Thai scored an overwhelming victory partly because the people have high expectation in the Phuea Thai government. As a result, the Phuea Thai must rush to shore up public confidence by making its Cabinet look good. Good and capable persons must be brought into the Cabinet to tackle the economic crisis. The government must also refrain from touching sensitive issues that will bring about criticisms and conflicts in the society.
Another problem waiting for Yinglak is the ties with the Army, which remain volatile. Army Commander-in-Chief General Prayut Chan-ocha stands on the opposite side with Thaksin and Yinglak so if Yinglak rushes to put Army officers loyal to Thaksin to power inside the Army, her government could face severe resistance from the Army.
Another problem waiting for her government is related to the issue of loyalty to the King. Thaksin and Phuea Thai members have been trying to portray themselves as being loyal to the King. Yinglak has announced that she would hold a grand celebration for His Majesty the King to mark his 84th birthday anniversary. Such a grand celebration may prompt certain groups of red-shirt people to become dissatisfied against the Phuea Thai government. The groups earlier attacked the Phum Chai Thai for what they saw as wasting the money for organizing such a grand celebration.
Moreover, the ties between the red-shirt movement and the Phuea Thai could become a time bomb in the future. This is because the United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship still adheres to its ideology to fight against the aristocrats. Their stand could contradict with the future stand of the Phuea Thai. And if the Phuea Thai pushes for a blanket amnesty for all sides, its policy could run against the stand of the red-shirt people.
Implementing Populist Schemes
As a result, it is not easy for Yinglak to run the country as the prime minister amid volatile rifts both inside and outside her party. Worse still, she will be also be required to honor her words to implement several populist schemes, which will require several hundreds of billions of baht.
Several core members of the Phuea Thai realized that it is not easy for the five-party coalition government with 299 MPs to stay in office until it completes the four-year term without facing major obstacles.
War of Political Conflicts
The country is still in the war of political conflicts while major power realignment is taking place in the Thai society. In particular, the results of the election showed that the Phuea Thai won the hearts of many grassroots people in the North and Northeast but it still failed to win support of the middle-class people in the capital.
The Phuea Thai won 265 House seats but failed to seize control of the capital. It was beaten by the Democrat Party in Bangkok at the rate of 10 to 23 MPs. This should serve as a reminder that if Yinglak fails to please the middle-class people by failing to tackle economic woes and by making mistakes in her administration, the city residents could lose faith in her very fast.
To remain popular and remain in office as long as possible, the government must be able to win support from all classes, not only the grassroots. The government must also win support from the middle-class and high-class people and former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has learned this lesson bitterly.
Tough Time Ahead
Survival of Yinglak and the Phuea Thai-led government will depend on her ability to tackle so many problems, which are waiting for her. The lack of political experience is a major weak point that may cause Yinglak to fail to pilot her government ship to the shore.
Unlike Yinglak, the two previous proxy prime ministers of Thaksin - Samak Sunthorawet and Somchai Wongsawat - had experience in country administration quite a lot.
Late Samak was a veteran politician, who had a lot of experience from several election contests. He also had rhetoric but he eventually succumbed to the pressure from the opponents. His government could last for only nine months before the Constitution Court disqualified him as the prime minister for working as a TV host in a cooking program. Somchai, a brother-in-law of Thaksin, stayed in office as the prime minister for only three months before he faced a legal case for ordering the crackdown on protesters led by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) on 7 October. Eventually, the Constitution Court dissolved the People Power Party, leading to power realignment that saw the Democrat becoming the government.
It is worth waiting to see whether inexperienced Yinglak will be able to withstand all the pressures. Will her strong points, which are her gender, her humbleness and her willingness to compromise, help her survive?
Major Adversaries
Of course, the condition in this battle for Yinglak has changed a lot. But several characters, who stand on the opposite side from Thaksin, remain unchanged. They include the PAD and the Army, which remain Thaksin's major adversaries until now. A factor that could affect the survival of the Yinglak government is amnesty for Thaksin. Although Yinglak and Thaksin have insisted that no amnesty would be given for a single person, it could be seen that an amnesty would definitely be given eventually. They likely to grant a blanket amnesty for all cases happened after the 19 September 2006 coup. A new constitution-drafting assembly may be assigned to draft a new charter with a provisional clause to grant the amnesty.
And the immediate problem Yinglak will face is to satisfactorily share benefits inside the Phuea Thai. Earlier, Thaksin has used several Phuea Thai and red-shirt leaders to fight for him in the war for power, causing several of them to face legal cases. As a result, after the war has been won, these Phuea Thai and red-shirt leaders hope to receive rewards from the big boss.
Whi le there are several persons waiting for the rewards, the Phuea Thai will have only 27 to 28 Cabinet seats for sharing after giving the others to four coalition partners. Lessons from the past showed that when a major party allocated Cabinet seats, rifts often occurred after all factions could not be satisfied. The People Power was an example, which showed that rifts from Cabinet seat sharing caused it to eventually fall during the Samak term.
But if Thaksin allows red-shirt leaders and Phuea Thai core members, who are facing legal cases, to become Cabinet members, the new Cabinet will lack public trust. The Phuea Thai scored an overwhelming victory partly because the people have high expectation in the Phuea Thai government. As a result, the Phuea Thai must rush to shore up public confidence by making its Cabinet look good. Good and capable persons must be brought into the Cabinet to tackle the economic crisis. The government must also refrain from touching sensitive issues that will bring about criticisms and conflicts in the society.
Another problem waiting for Yinglak is the ties with the Army, which remain volatile. Army Commander-in-Chief General Prayut Chan-ocha stands on the opposite side with Thaksin and Yinglak so if Yinglak rushes to put Army officers loyal to Thaksin to power inside the Army, her government could face severe resistance from the Army.
Another problem waiting for her government is related to the issue of loyalty to the King. Thaksin and Phuea Thai members have been trying to portray themselves as being loyal to the King. Yinglak has announced that she would hold a grand celebration for His Majesty the King to mark his 84th birthday anniversary. Such a grand celebration may prompt certain groups of red-shirt people to become dissatisfied against the Phuea Thai government. The groups earlier attacked the Phum Chai Thai for what they saw as wasting the money for organizing such a grand celebration.
Moreover, the ties between the red-shirt movement and the Phuea Thai could become a time bomb in the future. This is because the United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship still adheres to its ideology to fight against the aristocrats. Their stand could contradict with the future stand of the Phuea Thai. And if the Phuea Thai pushes for a blanket amnesty for all sides, its policy could run against the stand of the red-shirt people.
Implementing Populist Schemes
As a result, it is not easy for Yinglak to run the country as the prime minister amid volatile rifts both inside and outside her party. Worse still, she will be also be required to honor her words to implement several populist schemes, which will require several hundreds of billions of baht.
If her government really implements the populist schemes, the fiscal status of the country could be affected. But if she declines to implement the schemes or implement them only a little, she will be regarded as failing to keep her words.
Other Major Challenges
1. Consequence of Uncertainty Related to Mps Endorsement by the Election Commission (EC): So far, the EC has not yet endorsed up to 95 per cent of MPs so that the House of Representatives could convene its first meeting within 30 days after the election. Yinglak herself and 12 red-shirt leaders, who are Phuea Thai party-list MPs-elect, have not been endorsed either.
2. Election Cases and Complaints Against Coalition MPs: These cases range from vote-buying complaints in constituency-based elections to frauds that may require the Phuea Thai to be dissolved. Moreover, a Phuea Thai candidate, Somkhit Banthaisong, who won most votes in Nong Khai's Constituency 1, has received a yellow card. The Democrat has planned to attack the Phuea Thai when it announces the policy statement to Parliament. The Democrat is expected to hit the Phuea Thai over the yellow card and over allegations that it violated Article 53 of the MPs and Senators Election Act by allegedly telling lies during election campaigns. The Democrat will also attack the Phuea Thai for allowing former prime minister Thaksin Chinnawat, who is under five-year political ban, to interfere in the management of the party.
3. A Direct Hot Potato in Yinglak's Hands: If she becomes the prime minister, her assets declaration to the National Anti-Corruption Commission will be a hot potato for her. Her assets statement will be watched and scrutinized because parts of her assets will be related to the sale of Shin Corp's shares and her stake in the SC Assets firm. Moreover, her testimony to the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Office in the Bt46 billion seizure case against Thaksin may also return to haunt her in the assets declaration.
4. Rhetoric of the Professional Opposition Democrat Party: Democrats are eagerly waiting to test Yinglak's limit in a parliamentary debate. The party is rushing to elect its new executive board before the Yinglak government announces its policy statement in Parliament. The policy debate will become like a censure debate against her by the Democrats.
5. Promise of Bt300 Daily Minimum Wage: The Phuea Thai's promise to increase daily minimum wage for unskilled workers to Bt300 has not been welcomed by the private sector because it will raise the cost of the business sector. It is also in doubt as to whether the Bt300 wage policy could be implemented because the daily minimum wages will have to be approved by the tripartite Wage committee, whose members are representatives of the government, employers and employees. Moreover, the Constitution and the convention of the International Labor Organization require wages to be given equally without discrimination. This means foreign laborers in Thailand will also be entitled to the Bt300 minimum wage.
6. Promise To Guarantee New University Graduates' Salary of Bt15,000 a Month: This policy is opposed to by businessmen because it will increase the manufacturing cost. And the measure to reduce corporate income tax rate from 30 per cent to 23 per cent would not compensate the added cost caused by salary increase. Later on, some Phuea Thai members corrected themselves by saying only university graduates, who have received a special training, would be eligible for the Bt15,000 monthly salary. But the Phuea Thai failed to state this point during the election campaigns. It is also in doubt whether the plan to increase salaries of state employees to Bt15,000 for private firms to follow suit would be successful. Critics fear that this measure would instead add a budget burden on the government.
7. Rice Pledging Scheme: The pledging scheme is seen as having impact on the market mechanism and it is still unclear how to prevent massive corruptions that happened in the past.
8. Promise To Hand Out Free Tablet Computers to Students: There is a question about the budget for buying the co mputers and quality of the computers. Critics also question how to make sure that students will make most of the computers for studies and creativities.
9. Living Cost and Economic Hardship: So far, it is still unclear how Yinglak would tackle the rising prices of consumers' goods although Yinglak talked about this problem repeatedly during her election campaigns.
10. Political Time Bombs: There are several political time bombs including the reconciliation process, political amnesty and efforts to help Thaksin return home. Will these lead to another round of severe rifts in the country?
All of these challenges will come up for the Yinglak government to handle one by one. If she fails to tackle these problems or deal with these issues with satisfactory results, not only her government will have no future but Thais also will see their future dimmed.
Our words will become our master. So, no one should blink while watching Yinglak facing the challenge as Thailand's first woman prime minister.
Other Major Challenges
1. Consequence of Uncertainty Related to Mps Endorsement by the Election Commission (EC): So far, the EC has not yet endorsed up to 95 per cent of MPs so that the House of Representatives could convene its first meeting within 30 days after the election. Yinglak herself and 12 red-shirt leaders, who are Phuea Thai party-list MPs-elect, have not been endorsed either.
2. Election Cases and Complaints Against Coalition MPs: These cases range from vote-buying complaints in constituency-based elections to frauds that may require the Phuea Thai to be dissolved. Moreover, a Phuea Thai candidate, Somkhit Banthaisong, who won most votes in Nong Khai's Constituency 1, has received a yellow card. The Democrat has planned to attack the Phuea Thai when it announces the policy statement to Parliament. The Democrat is expected to hit the Phuea Thai over the yellow card and over allegations that it violated Article 53 of the MPs and Senators Election Act by allegedly telling lies during election campaigns. The Democrat will also attack the Phuea Thai for allowing former prime minister Thaksin Chinnawat, who is under five-year political ban, to interfere in the management of the party.
3. A Direct Hot Potato in Yinglak's Hands: If she becomes the prime minister, her assets declaration to the National Anti-Corruption Commission will be a hot potato for her. Her assets statement will be watched and scrutinized because parts of her assets will be related to the sale of Shin Corp's shares and her stake in the SC Assets firm. Moreover, her testimony to the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Office in the Bt46 billion seizure case against Thaksin may also return to haunt her in the assets declaration.
4. Rhetoric of the Professional Opposition Democrat Party: Democrats are eagerly waiting to test Yinglak's limit in a parliamentary debate. The party is rushing to elect its new executive board before the Yinglak government announces its policy statement in Parliament. The policy debate will become like a censure debate against her by the Democrats.
5. Promise of Bt300 Daily Minimum Wage: The Phuea Thai's promise to increase daily minimum wage for unskilled workers to Bt300 has not been welcomed by the private sector because it will raise the cost of the business sector. It is also in doubt as to whether the Bt300 wage policy could be implemented because the daily minimum wages will have to be approved by the tripartite Wage committee, whose members are representatives of the government, employers and employees. Moreover, the Constitution and the convention of the International Labor Organization require wages to be given equally without discrimination. This means foreign laborers in Thailand will also be entitled to the Bt300 minimum wage.
6. Promise To Guarantee New University Graduates' Salary of Bt15,000 a Month: This policy is opposed to by businessmen because it will increase the manufacturing cost. And the measure to reduce corporate income tax rate from 30 per cent to 23 per cent would not compensate the added cost caused by salary increase. Later on, some Phuea Thai members corrected themselves by saying only university graduates, who have received a special training, would be eligible for the Bt15,000 monthly salary. But the Phuea Thai failed to state this point during the election campaigns. It is also in doubt whether the plan to increase salaries of state employees to Bt15,000 for private firms to follow suit would be successful. Critics fear that this measure would instead add a budget burden on the government.
7. Rice Pledging Scheme: The pledging scheme is seen as having impact on the market mechanism and it is still unclear how to prevent massive corruptions that happened in the past.
8. Promise To Hand Out Free Tablet Computers to Students: There is a question about the budget for buying the co mputers and quality of the computers. Critics also question how to make sure that students will make most of the computers for studies and creativities.
9. Living Cost and Economic Hardship: So far, it is still unclear how Yinglak would tackle the rising prices of consumers' goods although Yinglak talked about this problem repeatedly during her election campaigns.
10. Political Time Bombs: There are several political time bombs including the reconciliation process, political amnesty and efforts to help Thaksin return home. Will these lead to another round of severe rifts in the country?
All of these challenges will come up for the Yinglak government to handle one by one. If she fails to tackle these problems or deal with these issues with satisfactory results, not only her government will have no future but Thais also will see their future dimmed.
Our words will become our master. So, no one should blink while watching Yinglak facing the challenge as Thailand's first woman prime minister.
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