The Libyan revolutionaries captured the country's capital Tripoli with a crushing force. Three sons of the Libyan tyrant Colonel Muammar Gaddafi who made up a last-ditch fight were seized one after another. Now the revolutionaries are stepping up their hunt for Gaddafi while taking over the control of Libya's economic lifelines. This indeed marks the death of "the era of Gaddafi". Although Gaddafi still tries hard to turn the tide, he has lost his control over the country. The name of Gaddafi may become obsolete soon.
Under the coordination of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the Transitional National Council formed by the anti-Gaddafi alliance is now gradually taking over the ruling power. This has not only realigned the political forces in Libya, but has also added an uncertain variable to the new order of Middle East, which is yet to be established. This variable may be in the form of what predicted by the US State Secretary Hillary Clinton -- an Iraq-style civil unrest in Libya. But it could be in the form of the resurrection of nationalism in Middle Eastern tribes as well. The fanatic nationalism may replace the tyrant politics and start to expand its external influence again. Whichever scenario it is going to turn out, the situation in Libya worries the outsiders a lot.
What worries us the most now is the rekindled nationalism among the public in Middle East. The emergence of nationalism almost coincides with the collapse of the tyrant rule. Nationalism has timely filled in the blank in the people's hearts after the downfall of the tyrant politics. In countries used to be ruled by tyrants like Iraq, Tunisia, and Egypt, nationalism has helped the people found their new starting point. However, the over emphasis on nationalism may cause new commotion. Another concern is the anti-Gaddafi alliance because we could see the shadow of Gaddafi cast upon the alliance. Under this shadow, we do not see any candidate who can replace him at the moment yet. This is why many Western people have predicted that after the downfall of Gaddafi, Libya will plunge into an internal strife, which will be more sinister and destructive than that in Iraq. The hatred and violent confrontation between tribes may lead the country to a crisis of separation.
It is beyond doubt how the weapons of mass destruction and bio-chemical weapons possessed by Libya could influence the balance of powers in Middle East. Therefore, a pressing mission for the gulf countries now is to rebuild the "natural equilibrium" of Middle East. Countries like the United States, the United Kingdom, and France have called on Gaddafi to hand over his power the soonest possible, so that the Transitional National Council led by Mahmoud Jibril can take over the administration temporarily. This is not only related to how fast Libya can be consolidated, this is also related to the establishment of the equilibrium in Middle East. If a political and economic alliance can be established and the different tribes in the country can agree and come out with a consistent diplomatic policy in the post-Gaddafi Libya, then it is possible that we will see a power balance between the Libyan alliance and other Arabic countries. If Libya is unable to establish such a political and economic alliance at the moment, then the country should develop some form of negotiation mechanism among the many tribes in the country to ensure the security in Libya itself, as well as in Middle East. This kind of arrangement of the power structure is rather similar to the equilibrium in Europe in the 19th century, but at the same time, this is indeed the direction of the development of our history today.
Disintegration in Arab World
In addition to diplomatic arrangement, the West should also find way to mitigate the shocks caused during the disintegration process in Iraq, Tunisia, and Egypt by tackling from the perspective of internal affairs. The West has hoped to see Middle East transit from tyrant politics. However, the changes have been too speedy for the West to handle. We have even observed the panic and confusion of the West as they are unable to be on top of these changes. Initially Russia opposed to the call of the United States and Europe that demanded Gaddafi to step down. But the country changed its mind in late July and called on Gaddafi to step down the soonest possible. This is an example of how some have failed to have a good command of the situation. This is why the West should get in touch with the revolutionaries as soon as possible to learn about their thoughts, to provide them the necessary aids, to appease the grudge among the tribes, and to prevent another civil war from breaking out.
Deterioration of Country’s Economy
The deterioration of the Libyan economy triggered the movement that eventually toppled the Gaddafi regime. However, the deteriorated economy would not get improved as an immediate result of the collapse of the tyrant politics or the rise of nationalism. What would the Libyan people do when they realize nationalism is not going to bring them warm winter?
Perhaps some would get frustrated; but it is more likely that some would advocate Fascist and nationalist dictatorship and attack the West for bringing the Libyan economy into trouble. They may impute the economic problems to the West and a series of civil wars may break out between tribes in support of Gaddafi and anti-Gaddafi tribes.
Role of International Community
Thus, what the whole international community should do today is to think of how to address the issue based on the fact of the power vacuum in Libya. For the West, the United States especially, the current pressing task is to understand and handle the changing state of affairs in Libya by employing a new framework. The new framework has to cover both the internal affairs and diplomatic fronts. In relation to internal affairs, they should establish communication channels with all tribes in Libya to be on top of the situation. At the same time, they should offer economic aids as soon as possible to help the Libyan people get through the coming severe winter and prevent Fascism or civil wars from breaking out.
Diplomatically, they should try to reestablish the equilibrium to prevent the expansion of the Arabic nationalism. For the entire international community, handling the changing state of affairs in Libya is like managing an international crisis. It is the greatest challenge to the political wisdom and resolution of the Western world as to whether or not they can handle this crisis in an appropriate manner and whether or not they can prevent the predicted disaster.
Under the coordination of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the Transitional National Council formed by the anti-Gaddafi alliance is now gradually taking over the ruling power. This has not only realigned the political forces in Libya, but has also added an uncertain variable to the new order of Middle East, which is yet to be established. This variable may be in the form of what predicted by the US State Secretary Hillary Clinton -- an Iraq-style civil unrest in Libya. But it could be in the form of the resurrection of nationalism in Middle Eastern tribes as well. The fanatic nationalism may replace the tyrant politics and start to expand its external influence again. Whichever scenario it is going to turn out, the situation in Libya worries the outsiders a lot.
What worries us the most now is the rekindled nationalism among the public in Middle East. The emergence of nationalism almost coincides with the collapse of the tyrant rule. Nationalism has timely filled in the blank in the people's hearts after the downfall of the tyrant politics. In countries used to be ruled by tyrants like Iraq, Tunisia, and Egypt, nationalism has helped the people found their new starting point. However, the over emphasis on nationalism may cause new commotion. Another concern is the anti-Gaddafi alliance because we could see the shadow of Gaddafi cast upon the alliance. Under this shadow, we do not see any candidate who can replace him at the moment yet. This is why many Western people have predicted that after the downfall of Gaddafi, Libya will plunge into an internal strife, which will be more sinister and destructive than that in Iraq. The hatred and violent confrontation between tribes may lead the country to a crisis of separation.
It is beyond doubt how the weapons of mass destruction and bio-chemical weapons possessed by Libya could influence the balance of powers in Middle East. Therefore, a pressing mission for the gulf countries now is to rebuild the "natural equilibrium" of Middle East. Countries like the United States, the United Kingdom, and France have called on Gaddafi to hand over his power the soonest possible, so that the Transitional National Council led by Mahmoud Jibril can take over the administration temporarily. This is not only related to how fast Libya can be consolidated, this is also related to the establishment of the equilibrium in Middle East. If a political and economic alliance can be established and the different tribes in the country can agree and come out with a consistent diplomatic policy in the post-Gaddafi Libya, then it is possible that we will see a power balance between the Libyan alliance and other Arabic countries. If Libya is unable to establish such a political and economic alliance at the moment, then the country should develop some form of negotiation mechanism among the many tribes in the country to ensure the security in Libya itself, as well as in Middle East. This kind of arrangement of the power structure is rather similar to the equilibrium in Europe in the 19th century, but at the same time, this is indeed the direction of the development of our history today.
Disintegration in Arab World
In addition to diplomatic arrangement, the West should also find way to mitigate the shocks caused during the disintegration process in Iraq, Tunisia, and Egypt by tackling from the perspective of internal affairs. The West has hoped to see Middle East transit from tyrant politics. However, the changes have been too speedy for the West to handle. We have even observed the panic and confusion of the West as they are unable to be on top of these changes. Initially Russia opposed to the call of the United States and Europe that demanded Gaddafi to step down. But the country changed its mind in late July and called on Gaddafi to step down the soonest possible. This is an example of how some have failed to have a good command of the situation. This is why the West should get in touch with the revolutionaries as soon as possible to learn about their thoughts, to provide them the necessary aids, to appease the grudge among the tribes, and to prevent another civil war from breaking out.
Deterioration of Country’s Economy
The deterioration of the Libyan economy triggered the movement that eventually toppled the Gaddafi regime. However, the deteriorated economy would not get improved as an immediate result of the collapse of the tyrant politics or the rise of nationalism. What would the Libyan people do when they realize nationalism is not going to bring them warm winter?
Perhaps some would get frustrated; but it is more likely that some would advocate Fascist and nationalist dictatorship and attack the West for bringing the Libyan economy into trouble. They may impute the economic problems to the West and a series of civil wars may break out between tribes in support of Gaddafi and anti-Gaddafi tribes.
Role of International Community
Thus, what the whole international community should do today is to think of how to address the issue based on the fact of the power vacuum in Libya. For the West, the United States especially, the current pressing task is to understand and handle the changing state of affairs in Libya by employing a new framework. The new framework has to cover both the internal affairs and diplomatic fronts. In relation to internal affairs, they should establish communication channels with all tribes in Libya to be on top of the situation. At the same time, they should offer economic aids as soon as possible to help the Libyan people get through the coming severe winter and prevent Fascism or civil wars from breaking out.
Diplomatically, they should try to reestablish the equilibrium to prevent the expansion of the Arabic nationalism. For the entire international community, handling the changing state of affairs in Libya is like managing an international crisis. It is the greatest challenge to the political wisdom and resolution of the Western world as to whether or not they can handle this crisis in an appropriate manner and whether or not they can prevent the predicted disaster.
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