The red-shirt people have not changed their plan to hold a massive rally on 14 March. The red-shirt movement has not changed the plan although it has been attacked so severely that it had to be on defensive.
The red-shirt movement has been attacked with reports released by the government leaders. The reports prompted the society to fear possible violence that may break out because of the rally. But what happened could not become obstacles to prevent the red-shirt movement from holding the massive demonstration. In particular, the United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) will go ahead with its plan to hold the rally.
Planned Rally
The information warfare by the government might become successful up to a point because the government managed to prompt the middleclass and Bangkok residents to fear or have concern about the planned rally by the red-shirt people. The information warfare became successful because Bangkokians are normally sensitive and would not tolerate any demonstration that would cause trouble and turmoil.
This is because the past demonstrations by either the yellow-shirt and red-shirt movements against the government often caused some Bangkok residents to become fed up. The Bangkokians could not accept the fact that these protesters caused traffic congestions and caused misery to their daily life. Most of all, the demonstrations affected the image and economy of the country.
Opportunity for Government
As a result, if the red-shirt movement provides more opportunity for the government to create more legitimacy and to win support from more middleclass people, the red-shirt people will stand to lose much further. The movement will further lose ground if it remains on defensive.
The weakest point of the red-shirt people is that they could not win support form the middleclass people for their campaign to topple the government like what the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) could do in the past. The red-shirt movement could not win support from middleclass in Bangkok although some Bangkokians became infuriated when the PAD-led protesters besieged the Government House to try to topple the nominee government of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
But it was undeniable that many Bangkokians have declared themselves as yellow-shirt people by joining the protests against cabinet members of then Prime Minister Samak Sunthorawet and Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat. This fact was also reflected when a vendor on Soi Lalaisap off Silom Road shouted at then prime minister Thaksin. The incident became the talk of the town.
Major Disadvantage
Although the red-shirt movement is on disadvantage because it does not have as many supporters among the middleclass as what the PAD has, the red-shirt movement also has a strong point. We must not forget that the red-shirt movement's strong point is its strong support among the grassroots people in northern and northeastern provinces as well as provinces around Bangkok. These grassroots people can move in to join the UDD protesters in Bangkok once their leaders blow the whistle.
The strategy that allows the red-shirt movement to have the biggest advantage over the opponents is the strategy of "besieging the capital with wilderness". That is, they will mobilize provincial people to Bangkok to join the protests against the government. This game may give the red-shirt movement an advantage, prompting the government to be unable to handle the situation as planned.
In particular, the announcement to move its protesters to Bangkok by road and water apparently caused the government to be worried a lot. The security situation monitoring committee failed to reach a decision during a meeting on 4 March as to whether to enforce the Internal Security Act to control the situation during the mass rally on 14 March. Despite the indecision, what happened indicated that the security agencies became very nervous.
Tough Task for Government
What the government and security agencies should do with extreme caution is to assess the situation to find out what could be an incident that would trigger violence or increase the political temperature, which could allow the red-shirt movement to become successful.
The government should monitor the networks of politicians and their canvassers in all levels in all provinces as the MPs and canvassers will coordinate will UDD leaders to mobilize the people. The monitoring should be done through state mechanisms and underground tactics. The government should do this because if the UDD leaders go ahead with the plan of using provincial people to besiege the capital to try to topple the government and the elitist polity, a civil war could happen.
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