Thai Problems Solving Must Be Based on Democratic Means

Recently, the Newsweek published an interesting article entitled How Democracy Dies by Joshua Kurlantzick, an expert on Southeast Asia affairs of the Council of Foreign Relations. The article talked about political phenomena worldwide, saying the situation for democracy was worrying.

Reason for Regression
The article analyzed that democracy in several country had regressed and this happened in Africa, Latin America, Middle East, Russia and Asia. The main reason for the regression was the middle class people who used to fight for freedom and democracy by toppling dictatorial regimes. The article said the middle class people were seeing that it was hard to create true democracy so they became disappointed in the system.

The main reason that prompted the middle class people to feel so was the fact that leaders of several new democratic countries regarded elections as only a way to power. And after they won an election, they abused the administrative power and practiced nepotism. Their interpretation of democracy that way was distortion of democracy, and thus causing the public to lose faith in the democratic system.

Kurlantzick also analyzed that the economic crisis also affected democracy in certain countries because the middle class regarded that democracy and freedom came with the adoption of globalization and capitalism. After their income dropped because of the economic crisis, they blamed the democracy for the economic crisis.

Implementing Policies
The article cited examples from several countries, including the Philippines, Venezuela, Russia and Cambodia. Kurlantzick highlighted the case of Thailand as a graphic example. In the example, Kurlantzick talked about former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, saying he got the power through democratic means and implemented policies as promised during the election campaigns and helping the poor. But Thaksin eventually abused the authority. Kurlantzick also talked about the summary killings of drug suspects during Thaksin's war on drug and the disappearance of lawyer Somchai Nilaphaichit.

This is the view of a westerner who still remembers the administrative style of Thaksin. Kurlantzick also talked about the phenomenon of the middle class people in Bangkok becoming disappointed and calling for the use of special power and a coup instead of using democratic means to bring about changes by supporting the opposition or by pushing for changes via newspapers.

Kurlantzick recounted that the middle class reasoned that the coup needed to be staged to preserve democracy. And eventually, the middle class people got what they wanted - they could topple the Thaksin regime and destroy democracy at the same time.

Kurlantzick did not conclude who was right or wrong. He simply presented an analysis in a view of a foreigner. But he added that after the middle class caused the democracy to regress by a coup and other undemocratic means, the lower class people became dissatisfied, leading to protests. Kurlantzick said this did not happen only in Thailand but also in Bolivia and the Philippines.

His last observation in the article was that kind of fight destroyed system and mechanisms of the country administration as well as the people's rights and freedom. He said it would take a long time to rebuild these democratic elements and there is no guarantee that the rebuilding would be successful.

Solving National Crisis
So, I am sharing this article so that Thai people would know how other people are viewing our situation. Sometimes, all Thais are like being caught in the middle of a bout in which fighters are fiercely fighting with no indication that they would stop. When we see how our "audience" analyze and think about our situation, we may be able to see it through and find a way-out for solving our national crisis.

The principle that we need to adhere to and need to have a common stand is that democracy is the best system for providing equal political and economic chances to the people and for guaranteeing the rights and freedom of the people. All problem solving efforts must be based on democracy. What happened in the past should be regarded as a painful lesson and we should never choose a coup as a way-out again.

Check-and-Balance Mechanisms
Most of all, there must be mechanisms for sharing power so that all sides and all classes in the society will take part in the ruling with the feelings that they are all owners of the country. All interests must be equally distributed instead of being concentrated to only a group of people no matter whether they are old or neo fenders. And when someone has money and power, that person must use the power with justice instead of abusing it to benefit himself and associates. To achieve this, the check-and-balance mechanisms of the public and private sectors must be strengthened as soon as possible.

We are all humans no matter whether we are elites or ordinary people. We need to respect each other because if we fail to see each other's face and respect each other, we will end up fighting against each other.

Malaysia Becomes Hong Kong's 11th Largest Trading Partner

Hong Kong Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah has recently disclosed that Malaysia and Hong Kong's trade volume has maintained a steady growth of 7.5 percent in the past five years. He said that 2009, Malaysia was Hong Kong's 11th largest trading partner. The total bilateral trade volume between Malaysia and Hong Kong in 2009 was more than 93 billion Hong Kong dollars (M$40 billion ringgit).

Tsang also said that 15 percent or 62 billion Hong Kong dollars (M$27 billion ringgit) of the Malaysia-China trade volume was done through Hong Kong.

Springboard for Foreign Companies
Tsang said: "We should continue to work on the free trade agreement, namely, the Closer Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) to break through trade barriers in inter-regional trade, service and investment trade barriers."

Hong Kong Financial Secretary Tsang pointed out that financial service was one of the most important areas in the bilateral relations between Malaysia and Hong Kong. He said Hong Kong played the role as a springboard for foreign companies, including Malaysian companies to do business in China.

Bilateral Cooperation
Hong Kong enjoys a high degree of cooperative relationship in the financial field with Malaysia. More recently Hong Kong and Malaysia have both opened their respective financial liberalization door for both sides to create more opportunities for cooperation.

Tsang Chun-wah also said that one of Hong Kong's further cooperation with Malaysia was in Islamic finance. He said Malaysia has a lot of experience in this field. He said that in the field of Islamic finance, Hong Kong hoped to develop more opportunities for bilateral cooperation with Malaysia, including the development of Islamic bond market.

Greece and Iceland Financial Crisis Pose Warning for Vietnam

Vietnam should study seriously the experiences of two European countries which are Iceland and Greece although at the moment our situation is better. We have Official Development Aid (ODA), which means long term loans with low interest, and the total debit balance is not too high.
A company will go bankrupt if it can not pay off all its debts at the deadline, and so will a country. In 2009, Iceland fell into that situation. This year, Greece is also facing the possibility of bankruptcy.

If a company faced with bankruptcy is not bailed out by creditors or third parties, it can go bankrupt, be forced to sell its assets to clear its debts, and liquidate. It is hard for a country to be liquidated, but there is a high possibility of having to sell properties and selling concessions for lands and mines to clear its debts, or future generations will have to work their hands to the bone, and tighten their belts to pay off the debts.

Greek Syndrome
The Greek government had to raise taxes and reduce expenses to pay the interest and one part of the principal on its national debt of over 400 billion euros. People took to the streets to protest against the policies of tax increases and reduction in welfare programs.

Sixteen European finance ministers seemed to agree on the Greek rescue plan in a meeting in Brussels on 15 March, although the detailed plan has not been revealed.

Fell Into Bankruptcy
It is as simple as a family or a company. A government has to spend money to maintain the government apparatus, national security and defense, and development. Balancing the expenses, the government has receipts. If the expenses surpass the receipts, the government has to ask for loans inside or outside of the country. Printing money to settle will cause immeasurable inflation, which is another form of tax on everybody.

The domestic receipts of the government come from taxes, fees, sales of natural resources such as oil and coal, and other sources such as domestic loans and bond and treasury bill sales.

Foreign receipts include nonrefundable aid, which is not significant, foreign loans (ODA), and commercial loans, for example issuing bonds on the international market as Vietnam has done recently to raise $1 billion.

Ineffective use of loans, corruption leading to loss, loose tax collection and tax evasion, or insufficient taxation can cause debts to pile up and can easily lead to bankruptcy.

The press has said that Greece went bankrupt because of corruption and tax evasion. The credit rating of Greece fell from A- to BBB+, the lowest rating of European countries. A low credit rating makes it even more difficult to get new loans, and interest rates will be high.

Common Condition
Based on the experience of Iceland and Greece, the increasing debt, and the uses of the funds in Vietnam is cause for concern. The credit rating of Vietnam has just been lowered to BB- by Fitch, a global ranking organization providing data, research, and credit forecast independently for the international credit market. Vietnam's trade deficit has been continuously high for many years. Domestic and foreign debts of the government have increased rapidly, although they are reported to be at a safe level (less than 40 percent GDP is considered safe).

According to the Ministry of Finance, as of 30 June, 2009, Vietnam's foreign debt Vietnam equaled 29.8 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), $23.6 billion. After June 2009, Vietnam signed loans and loan guarantees worth nearly $4.5 billion in total - $1.205 billion with Asian Development Bank (ADB), $927 million with the World Bank, $1.33 billion with Japan, not including $290 million the Japanese loaned Vietnam at the beginning of March this year, and issued $1 billion of international bonds.

If all this money is disbursed, the foreign debt of Vietnam will increase to 35 percent of GDP, not to mention that the total domestic debt of the government is unclear. The concern is that the returns on spending and investment are not high, corruption and the thirst for investment on the part of state agencies have not been reduced, so debt will increase rapidly if there is not strict control.

Perhaps the National Assembly will discuss the bauxite projects, the high speed railroad project, the nuclear power project, and many other mega-projects. The Finance Ministry has just taken a decision on supplementing authorized capital for Agriculture and Rural Development Bank (Agribank) for an amount of more than 10.2 trillion Vietnam dong. All these mega-projects and financings of corporations and state units need huge amounts of money. The federal government is in debt, corporations are in debt, and localities are also in debt.

Diagnose and Treatment Needed
Ho Chi Minh City has just established the Ho Chi Minh City Financial Investment Company (HFIC) to mobilize capital from organizations and individuals inside and outside of the country, issue bonds, raise funds from financial and credit organizations, accept financial assistance, and managed-account funds.

Hanoi City is also developing a proposal for a foreign loan of billions of dollars. Perhaps Hanoi will also follow the example of Ho Chi Minh City to establish its own financial investment company.

Unclear About Other Provinces Activities
Not even mentioning that these state financial investment companies will prevent banks from mobilizing capital, I note that if local state financial investment companies and corporations are not under strict control, and make extensive loans for extensive investment at higher interest rates than the central government pays, it can push the country into debt and lead to the possibility of bankruptcy in the future, and our descendants will have to work hard to pay off the debts.

The thirst for investment can be the condition of any government if there is not strict control and supervision. There are many temptations and apparently good reasons for loans and expenses, but please do not put the burden on future generations.

We must identify clearly what the country must do, and invest in the army, the legislature, law enforcement, and infrastructure, for example, but the government should not do business, nor invest in business.

German Chancellor's Visit to Turkey

German Chancellor Angela Merkel concluded her two-day visit to Turkey on 30 March. On the first day she held talks with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, discussing possible sanctions for Iran, Turkey's relations with the EU, and the controversial issue of Erdogan's proposal for Turkish high schools in Germany.

During her tour, German Chancellor Merkel also met with Turkish President Abdullah Gul, and State Minister and Chief Negotiator for EU talks Egemen Bagis in Ankara. On the second day, the German chancellor went to Istanbal, accompanied by Bagis and Tourism Minister Ertugrul Gunay.

Iran's Issue
As far as Iran's issue is concerned, the German chancellor said the international community may have to consider stronger measures. She said: "If Iran does not in the end show transparency over the question of nuclear energy, we must also consider sanctions."

Turkey has been developing its trade and political relations with Iran in recent years, and Erdogan said he was against the possible measures. He said: "We are of the view that sanctions are not a healthy path and that the best route is diplomacy."

Turkey's Possible EU Membership
Talking about Turkey's possible European Union (EU) membership, German Chancellor Merkel dropped the term privileged partnership, saying she had realized that it did not have a positive connotation in Turkey. In any case, the "open-outcome process" of talks first required a whole raft of issues to be resolved, among which Merkel highlighted Turkey's need to take account of the interests of Cyprus, she pointed out. Merkel assuranced her Turkish counterpart: "We are continuing with the entry negotiations."

The German chancellor rebuffed allegations from Turkey that Berlin had altered the "rules of the game" during the negotiations. Although former Federal Chancellor Adenauer had promised membership to Turkey in the 1960s, the present EU was not to be compared with the then European Economic Community, she argued. Erdogan responded that Turkey continued to expect "full membership." He welcomed the fact that the "environment chapter" of negotiations with the EU had now been opened. He believed that the relations between Germany and Turkey should serve as a model for other EU countries' relations with Turkey.

Opening of Turkish High Schools in Germany
During her stay, the German chancellor softened her stance against Turkish schools in Germany. She supported the existence of Turkish-language schools, pointing out that many schools were already teaching the language in Germany, and said such programs should be expanded.

However, she stressed that these programs should not serve as an excuse for Turkish immigrants to forgo the study of German. She said both languages should be taught, highlighting the importance of bilingualism and the integration of immigrants into German society.

Red-Shirted Leaders, Thai Government Truce Talks Collapse

United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) co-leader and opposition Puea Thai Party MP Jatuporn Prompan said on 30 March that the truce talks between the government and the red-shirted UDD were over because the two sides had totally different standpoints. Jatuporn said that there would be no more negotiations and the red-shirted leaders would not hold talks with the government behind people's back. The two sides just cannot end their differences.

During talks late 29 March, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva offered the UDD a compromise, saying he was willing to call a general election by the end of the year, one-year ahead of schedule.
Jatuporn said: "We want the government to dissolve the House in 15 days, but the government said it needs nine months. The government and the UDD are like water and oil. We just cannot get along together."

Revocation of Internal Security Act
The government also cannot ask for further talks in exchange for the revocation of the Internal Security Act. The red-shirted rally will now be intensified, from pressuring the government for dissolution to expelling the government, but we will continue to protest peacefully.

However, if the government would consider dissolving the House in three months, the UDD leaders would discuss it and ask for the people's views on the same. Abhisit has expressed regret at the collapse of the talks.

It is a pity that protest leaders have swiftly rejected the government's offer and signaled the immediate end of talks. Despite this, the government is still open for negotiations. Deputy Interior Minister Boonjong Wongtrairat said that the cabinet on 30 March agreed to extend the use of the Internal Security Act (ISA) in Bangkok and two adjoining provinces for another week.

Tough Time Ahead
The security law, invoked in Bangkok, Nonthaburi and Samut Prakan to ensure peace and order during the antigovernment rally, had been due to end on 30 March. The cabinet has approved a plan to impose the ISA in Petchaburi's Cha-am district and Prachuap Khiri Khan's Hua Hin district during the Mekong River Summit, Deputy Education Minister Chaiwut Bannawat.

The Mekong River Commission will meet from 2 to 5 April in Hua Hin, Prachuap Khiri Khan. The invocation of the security law is to ensure security for foreign leaders attending the meeting.

President Obama Visits Afghanistan

Coming as it does eight years after the invasion on Afghanistan, US President Barack Obama's secret tour reflects the state of warfare there. Even after the lapse of eight years if the US President cannot openly visit Afghanistan, then what is the outcome of the war? It is obviously the security factor behind the secret tour. It is due to the apprehension of a possible Taliban attack that Afghan President Hamid Karzai was intimated about Obama's visit just an hour in advance.

After meeting North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces General and the US envoy in Kabul, Obama called on Karzai. By the time news about Obama's visit emanated, he was already on his return journey.

Objective of Tour
As per news reports, the objective of Obama's whirlwind tour was to hold a direct meeting with Karzai and the NATO General. The news reports say that the main issues that came up for consideration at the meeting with Karzai was the rampant corruption in Afghanistan, ineffective judicial system and inefficient administration in that country. While the strategic significance of the meeting will be a subject of debate for many days ahead, yet certain points have emerged in a clear manner. The first and foremost point is that Obama attaches not much importance to Karzai. Although Karzai has become Afghan President with US patronage, yet the fact remains that it was the US compulsion. He has failed to rein in corruption and enhance his credibility.

The United States, currently trying to explore solution of the Afghan problem through elimination of corruption and strengthening of the judicial system, patronized corruption, the chief instance of which is the elections.

Talks With Taliban
The US dilemma over Afghanistan has become a mystery now. On one hand, the strength of the US forces is being increased and on the other, it is rearing to retreat from that country. News reports from various sources have also been emanating to the effect that the United States is willing to hold talks with the Taliban at some or the other level. During his just concluded visit, Obama spoke in terms of reconciliation with various sides.

Recently, the NATO forces General apologized for the killings of innocent people. During the NATO offensive, 21 innocent people were killed. The apology that was tendered to justify his credibility manifests that he is not receiving the requisite support for his offensive.

Winning of People's Confidence
The principles that were underlined at the time of the offensive were not strictly adhered to during the actual operation. The United States declared that one of its major motives was to eliminate smuggling.

In recent days, the United States had linked the permission of poppy cultivation in Afghanistan with the winning of the confidence of the people in that country. The chief concern at the time of the grant of this permission was to what impression would be created on the US public when they will observe photographs of the US troops, moving around in the vicinity of poppy fields?

Afghanistan's Future
In the circumstances, the people of this region were duly concerned about Afghanistan's future. If the United States quits that country, then what turn will the situation take? At this juncture, it seems that the claims of democracy, security and human values have been put into cold storage in order to justify the war in Afghanistan.

Now, the United States is in a hurry to shy off the deteriorating conditions. Have the human apprehensions not increased in the wake of the US-led NATO forces war against Afghanistan? How can the United States escape from the responsibility of these apprehensions?

Spat Between China, US Over RMB Value Will Not Help Resolve Trade Disputes

The spat between China and the United States over the appreciation of RMB (Renminbi) exchange rate seems to have the tendency to heat up and expand. The US Treasury will release its annual report on 15 April. In this report, whether China will be blacklisted as a currency manipulator country might decide the future international trade direction.

As the date of the release of the US Treasury annual report approaching, the pressure coming from all directions in pressuring China to raise its RMB exchange rate has also intensified. Recently, 130 members of the US Congress have collectively sent letters to US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and US Commerce Secretary Gary Locke, requesting that the United States should list China as one of the countries that manipulates its currency. In addition EU Trade Commissioner De Gucht also felt that China's RMB is undervalued and that China should allow its currency to appreciate. Then came the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) that followed through and exerted pressure on China to appreciate the value of its RMB.

Revival of Global Economy
Facing overwhelming pressure coming from the western society, Beijing's tone has also been raised. In his work paper for the "two sessions" this year, Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao announced that the Chinese Government would not yield to external pressure and the RMB exchange rate will remain "basically stable." At a public forum held on 21 March, China's Minister of Commerce Chen Deming also said that if China was listed by the United States as a currency manipulator and if China suffered trade sanction, China would take retaliatory measures against the United States. He made this remarks in response to US corporate executives' questions on this issue at the public forum.

Issue relating to the currency rate of RMB has tremendous impact on the world community. As the world's two largest trading countries, if a trade war really breaks out between China and the United States, it will affect all other countries in the world and it may lead to the gradually reviving global economy back to the valley of economic setback again. Objectively speaking, the RMB exchange rate issue is not without a solution.

However, using high profiled propaganda measure to resolve the issue is not the best way to end the trade conflicts between China and the United States. It is obvious that the policy makers in Washington and Beijing are forced to take their respective stand on the RMB exchange rate issue because both governments are confronted by their respective internal situation and pressure.

US Health Care Reform Bill
Although the Obama Government has had its health care reform bill passed, the effort taken by the Obama administration to get it through has already consumed considerable political capital of Obama. Since becoming the US President, Obama has been actively promoting rational public affairs. But now his bipartisanship appeal has also fallen apart.

However, the unemployment rate in the United States has remained high. With the mid-term congressional election approaching, the White House has no choice but to pay more attention to the public opinion and value the feedback from the public opinions as well as to attend to the pressure coming from the opposition party and the pressure from within the ruling party.

The US public opinions attributed the US unemployment problem to the exchange rate of RMB. They said the RMB was unreasonably depressed by the Chinese authority and that as a result it has become a setback to the US export industries. At this very moment, the US domestic political scene is such that the Obama administration is n the defense side when facing the US public. As such, in dealing with the RMB issue, the weaken US Government has subtly reflected its intention to diverge its domestic pressure onto China's RMB by raising its voice sternly.

Economic Transformation
Similarly, on diplomatic front, China also cannot afford to show its weakness. This is because within China, its economic transformation has been slow, its employment situation is grim and its societal tension is on the rise. Voices coming from China's civil society demanding for societal structural change are continued to be heard. The Chinese Government is now faced with a populist movement. At this period of time when the Chinese Government has to pay full attention to handle domestic challenge, China really cannot afford to show its weakness in public diplomacy.

International pressures can only force the Chinese government to hold firm to its position and will not give in an inch. In other words, policy makers in Washington and Beijing were forced out of the internal situation to demonstrate a strong stance. However such situation will not help to solve the RMB exchange rate issue, but would further weaken each other's room for maneuver.

Trade Problem and RMB Issue
In fact the US-China trade problem and the RMB issue are not as insoluble as reflected on the surface. China's gradual accumulation of inflationary pressures will eventually prompt the Chinese Government to let the RMB to appreciate (but the appreciation rate and speed may not be what the United States intends it to be).

To this end, the Chinese Government has also sent a signal. Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao said that China advocated free trade. He said China would not go for the pursuit of trade surplus. In response to the US concern, he also stressed that China would make effort to expand imports. He said maintaining China-US trade balance should be a long-term efforts and direction.

Earlier, China's central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan also said China's current exchange rate policy was a temporary strategy in response to the global financial crisis. He said that adjustment of the value of Chinese currency was but a matter of time.

Exerting Pressure on China
Past experience has shown that if the United States publicly and openly exerts pressure on Beijing, it will be counterproductive. EU Trade Commissioner De Gucht has also pointed out that on dealing with China's RMB issue; the US Congress should adopt a cautious approach.

De Gucht believed that exerting pressure on China publicly and openly would only lead to negative and counterproductive result. As such he said he would not recommend that EU and Euro zone should adopt such an open approach to deal with China's RMB issue.

Communique of Communist Party of Vietnam's Central Committee

The 12th Plenum of the Communist Party of Vietnam Central Committee (CPVCC), 10th Tenure, has convened in Hanoi from 22 to 28 March to continue its discussions on important issues in preparation for the upcoming 11th National Party Congress. Secretary General Nong Duc Manh has presided, opened and closed the conference.

Strategy for National Construction
The CPVCC has discussed draft documents of the 11th National Congress after having considered the opinions collected from the 11th CPVCC plenum, former leaders of the Party and the State, leaders of provincial and municipal Party Committee (PC), CPVCC organizations, experts and scientists.

The documents discussed include: the Political program for national construction in the transition to socialism (complemented and developed for 2011); the 10-year (2011-2020) Strategy for socioeconomic development; the Political Report of the CPVCC (10th tenure) at the Party's 11th National Congress; the Report on the implementation of Party Rules and recommendations for supplements and amendments; recommendations for the completion of draft documents before announcing to party congresses at all levels and the people for their opinions.

Major Issues and Implementation
The CPVCC has also discussed on the orientation for the personnel planning of the CPVCC of the 11th tenure; the number and partition of delegates to attend the 11th National Party Congress and several other issues.

1. The CPVCC has revised the whole draft Political Platform for National Construction During the Transition Period to Socialism (to be complemented and developed in 2011) with the emphases on: the social characteristics of the socialism that our people are building and our general objective when the transitional period ends; basic orientations; the position and role of different economic sectors during the transition to socialism in our country.

2. The CPVCC has revised every aspect of the draft of the 10-year (2011-2020) Strategy for Socioeconomic Development and concentrated its discussions on the defining of the goals of the Strategy with the development concepts and breakthrough stages as well as the different orientations and development measures.The main theme of the Strategy is defined as: To continue the boosting of the industrialization and modernization process with rapid and sustainable development by mobilizing the entire nation's strength to transform our country basically into a modern industrialized country. On the implementation results of the 2001-2010 Strategy for socio-economic development, the draft Strategy evaluated that: After 10 years of implementation of the 2001-2010 strategy, we have greatly achieved important results by bringing the country out of the less developed situation with the successful implementation of essential targets of the Strategy.

3. The CPVCC has discussed and basically endorsed the draft Political Report while adding some recommendations on the following important issues to perfect the draft:The theme of the Political Report and overall objectives during the term of the 11th Congress approved by the CPVCC will be: To strengthen the capacity of the leadership and combative spirit of the Party, bringing into full play the nation's strength and pushing forward the comprehensive renewal work to lay the foundation for our country to basically become a modern industrialized country by 2020. Based on preliminary estimation, the draft Political Report has presented a number of important growth targets for the five-year period of 2011-2015 with an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate at 7-8 percent and an average GDP per capita of $2,100 by 2015, which is 1.7 times of that of 2010.

4. The CPVCC has discussed and gave recommendations to the Report on the Implementation of Party Statute of the 10th Party's tenure and the proposals for complements and amendments; the Report on the Personnel Plan for the 11th tenure CPVCC and the number and representation allocation of delegates from the Central Party Committee to attend the 11th Party Congress.

Assessment

At the 12th Plenum, the CPVCC also reviewed, approved and proposed some additional opinions on the representation allocation and total number of delegates to participate in the 11th Congress and several other important issues.

The CPVCC called on the entire party, people, and Army to strive arduously to weather all difficulties and challenges to successfully implement the 2010 socioeconomic development targets and the 10th Party Congress's resolution; to organize with success all the big national celebrations in 2010 and the party congresses at all levels and finally, to contribute valuable opinions for the finishing of the congress's documents as well as to ensure the great success of the upcoming 11th Party Congress to be held at the beginning of 2011.

Red-Shirted Movement Challenges Thai Government

Political conflicts over the past four years have prompted the society to learn and see that the root of the conflicts is not only about former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra or about different levels of intelligence and accesses to information as claimed by some people. The actual root of the problem is "the disparity" in the society.

Prime Minister Aphisit Vejjajiva has told the media "The disparity problem is a fact that has been in Thai society for a long time. We shouldn't raise this issue to be the condition for stirring up hatred in the society. During the Thaksin government, the proportion of debt per households among Thais has increased more than one fold. Thaksin's wealth also increased more than one fold. This is also a kind of disparity."

Social Disparity Through Class System
Red-shirted leaders have been trying to explain social disparity through class system, "amataya-commoners." It could be concluded that the "amataya system" is "the cultural structure of power that lends power to a group of people that are the minority in the society without going through a democratic process which is an election. However, the group can exercise their power by intervening politics and public administration system without being accountable to the public. And they are not held responsible to the exercising of their authority politically or legally."

Amataya's power has been sometime dubbed "non-constitutional power." However, its meaning according to the norm is "influence." It is a kind of power in the conventional cultural structure of power, which accepts the existence of some "special power." The society believes that such power is the representative of morality, or the power of morality.

Blocking Democratic Consolidation
Although Thailand's administration system has been changed to democracy almost 80 years ago, some are still ''yearning for" the power of morality. The trace of nostalgia has been clearly reflected during the early phase of the "New Politics" proposal. It was proposed "If the government were corrupt of disloyal to the monarchy, the military may stage a coup d'etat. The monarch, on the capacity of the supreme commander of Thai armed forces, may freely appoint armed force commanders without waiting for the nomination by the prime minister."

The amataya system is hinged on the special power. In fact, there are two perspectives on the amataya system. One group views that the system is a unique attribute with historical value related to national development. At present, the system is still worthful because it could balance the power of corrupt politicians. (For example, it has helped get rid of a corrupt government.) However, another group says such special power is the root of problems that block democracy consolidation and cause social disparity.

This is because 1. Amataya power is not hinged on people power because amataya or elite bureaucrats are not elected; 2. amataya has intervened politics and public administration system. As a result, the power has undermined the importance of election because the government elected by the people has been dominated or regulated by another power. The government then may not implement policies according to the wills of the people. Amataya power could even overwrite the importance of election because the power has staged a coup to topple the government elected by the people.

This kind of disparity is the root of inequality problem in the "one man = one vote" system. It causes the minority to have "privilege" over the allocation of power and social and political interests beyond the majority in the society. It leads to law issuance and law enforcement with "double standards." The law that is contradicted to the equality of human beings and that violates the freedom of expression or other rights have been issued. And the law has been unequally enforced against people from different classes or different groups.

For this reason, "amataya" is viewed as a "privilege class." For "commoners", they are people in the class that has been exploited by privilege people or has been branded by the latter as being stupid, poor, sick and being used as corrupt politicians' tools. The latter thought they were not free people who understand "democracy" and they are not capable of exercising the rights to govern themselves with free judgment. Therefore, "commoners" should not have the rights to fully govern themselves. The power should be centralized for unity and security of the state.

However, the picture of disparity reflected through the "amataya-commoners" discourse is merely the reflection of disparity in only one direction. There are several more other directions of disparity. An example that could be easily seen is the disparity in educational opportunities. Farmers, papaya salad sellers, motorbike, taxi drivers or daily wage earners in general cannot or have any bargaining power to ask any educational institution to admit their children without going through the official admission system. At the same time, the number of "students admitted through special channels" from civil servants and generals might not be as high as the number of "students admitted through special channels" from business people, local politicians and national politicians who often have long lists of students that they have to place in various educational institutions.

Problems Between Conflicting Parties
University lecturers also have privilege over university officials, security guards and cleaners. Thaksin and retired generals that became Phuea Thai Party members, politicians, business people, and academics in Phuea Thai Party and in the red shirted movement, or those supporting the red shirted movement also have life styles and economic and social statuses that are different from those of exploited "commoners" in red shirted rallies, most of whom are from northeastern and northern provinces.

Generally speaking, there are several directions of disparity in the society. But even though political conflicts right now have made disparity more visible for us, the debating issues and negotiation conditions that could end conflicts still focus on individuals or conflicting parties.

Each party still talks about General Prem-Thaksin-Aphisit, or government– red-shirted people, amataya-commoners or yellow-shirted-red shirted. As a result, the negotiation to compromise or to save faces of certain individual or party has gained priority over a talk to find solution together to end social disparity problems.

Demand of Situation
Hence, the attempt to prolong conflicts is rather about ''winning or losing" a political game. If the parliament were not dissolved, no one could see a way out of the conflicts. If the parliament were dissolved, we might see the changing hands of power. But we might not see a way to solve "structural problems" that would concretely reduce disparity in different directions.

If we all insisted that ongoing political conflicts have developed to the point that people are clearly aware of disparity problems beyond problems of an individual or problems between conflicting parties, a question that should be raised during the negotiation between red shirted people and the government is how the decision to dissolve or not to dissolve the parliament could be a condition leading to the attempt to solve social disparity.

Each party should talk about the solution of disparity problem, which has been the root cause of conflicts. They should show the public their suggestions on how to solve disparity problems, to drive the society to move forward.

Otherwise, the attempt to end social disparity should be a key issue that political parties, civic groups or people in all sectors should campaign during the next canvassing campaigns or during the design of constitution or political reform in the future.

India Test-Fires Nuclear-Capable Ballistic Missiles

India successfully test-fired its indigenously developed, nuclear-capable, Short Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM) Agni-I from the Integrated Test Range (ITR) at Wheeler Island, approximately 100-km from here off the Orissa (east Indian State) coast on 28 March. It was a fantastic mission carried out by the Indian Army. The test-fire of the Agni-I missile met all parameters.

Guidance and Reentry System
Blasted off from a rail mobile launcher, the surface-to-surface, single-stage missile, powered by solid propellants, roared into the sky trailing behind a column of orange and white thick smoke. After piercing the sky, the missile reentered the earth's atmosphere and its dummy warhead impacted in the waters of the Bay of Bengal in the down range. According to the details, the guidance and reentry system worked well.

User of the missile, the strategic force command of the Indian Army, executed the entire launch operation with the necessary logistic support being provided by the Defense Research Development Organization (DRDO) at the Integrated Test Range (ITR).

Preparedness of Indian Army

Weighing 12 tons, the 15-meter tall Agni-I, which can carry payloads weighing up to one ton, has already been inducted into the Indian Army. The Agni-I has a range of up to 700-km. The command chain has been validated. This is a major step in the preparedness of the Army in using this weapon system. The defense scientists have reached the full range capability of the missile.

The entire trajectory of today's mission was tracked by a battery of sophisticated radars, telemetry and electro-optic systems and a naval ship anchored in the impact point. The command, operation, integration, execution and networking for the launch were done by the Army.

Nuclear-Capable Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles

India successfully test-fired two nuclear-capable medium-range ballistic missiles Prithvi-II and Dhanush in quick succession from different locations off the Orissa coast on 27 March. Dhanush was test-fired from INS Subhadra, about 50 nautical miles from Puri, while Prithvi-II was test-fired from a mobile launcher from the ITR. Prithvi-II has a range of 295-km while Dhanush, the naval version of Prithvi, can cruise up to 350-km.

On 22 March, the supersonic cruise missile BrahMos, jointly developed by India and Russia, was successfully test-launched from INS Ranvir off the Orissa coast.

Hong Kong Maintains Close Economic Ties With US

Hong Kong Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah said that since 1983 Hong Kong began to establish currency exchange system pegged with the US currency. Although such currency peg has gone through ups and downs in the past 27 years, Hong Kong has maintained good economic relationship with the United States. He said Hong Kong has no intention to change the present currency exchange system to follow China's monetary policy.'

Tsang said this in response to a question if it would be possible for Hong and China to implement the same monetary system. He said that Hong Kong's per capita income was more than $30,000. He added that in term of economic development, Hong Kong and the United States have maintained very close relationship. As such Hong Kong has no intention to change its monetary exchange rate pegging system with the United States.

Tsang Chun-wah said that although China's Renmibi (RMB) was an important currency, it was not an easily convertible currency. This was an area Hong Kong was currently trying to assist China.

Some places in Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries also allow the use of RMB as trading currency. It is hoped that Hong Kong can become such a platform and base for RMB to rise and continue to grow strong.

Establishing Two Financial Centers
Hong Kong Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah opined that since China has a population of 1.3 billion people, having Hong Kong and Shanghai as its two financial centers were not many. China can have two financial centers.

On primary and secondary industries, China has already grown very strong. China is now working on third tier of industries. This should be the economic growth engine to push China's economy further ahead.

Learning From Malaysia on Islamic Finance Development
Tsang said that Malaysia's experience in Islamic financial sector and in Islamic investment as well as in public education for it were very successful. As such, one of the main reasons he visited Malaysia was to learn from Malaysia in these areas. He said that at this moment, for Hong Kong to develop the Islamic financial sector, the most important thing is to enhance public education and promotion about it and to allow more market participants to understand that the Islamic financial sector was not only for Muslims to participate only. It was a financial field that all interested investors could join and participate.

When Tsang Chun-wah accepted a joint interview with the Malaysian media, he said that Hong Kong's Muslim population was not much. But Hong Kong has a robust financial structure. Hong Kong could become a regional platform, in particularly a platform for China to participate in Islamic finance and service.

In addition, Tsang also said that the purpose of his visit to Malaysia was also to see if the bi-lateral cooperation between Hong Kong and Malaysia could further be advanced in certain direction or to develop cooperation model. He said while he hoped his visit could promote bi-lateral economic relationship between Hong and China, he also wanted to learn from Malaysia's success economic stories.

He said that when he met and talked to Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib earlier, he gained many constructive views. He believed this would help to make the bilateral economic growth and cooperation between Hong Kong and Malaysia to move forward.

Country's NKRA Measure
Hong Kong Financial Secretary Tsang Chun-wah said that in order for Hong Kong to maintain healthy economic development, Hong Kong has identified six priority areas in order to diversify Hong Kong's economic base and create employment opportunities. He said Hong Kong's priority measures and Malaysian Government's measures to identify National Key Result Areas (NKRA) were quite similar in essence.

He said that the six priority areas identified by the Hong Kong Government included education services, pharmaceutical services, laboratory certification, innovation and technology, environmental industries as well as cultural and creative industries.

When Tsang Chun-wah presented his keynote address at a public forum themed as "New Economic Order in Post Global Financial Crisis Era, he said: "The top priority area concept carried out by Hong Kong holds many common grounds as Malaysia's National Key Result Area policy. Through such comparison, I can see many opportunities for cooperation between Hong Kong and Malaysia. Such cooperation opportunities can help us to achieve our common goal. We should try to create these opportunities. "

Obama Wins Congressional Battle on Heath Care Bill, Not Public Support

For many years in the past, the US Government failed to achieve a universal health care plan that can benefit all citizens. But US President Barack Obama has achieved it. This can be viewed as a political achievement for him since he became the US President more than a year ago.

To majority of the US people, they feel President Obama's domestic and foreign policies have not been able to achieve outstanding results as they have expected. As such President Obama and his supporters have to depend on the passing of this health care reform plan legislative process to win back the support of the majority so that they can stand a better chance to do well in the coming midterm congressional election to be held toward the end of the year.

People's Opinion
However, when Obama's health care reform bill was finally passed by the US Congress, it was but a narrowed win for President Obama. The public opinion has reflected the reality that there are indeed more Americans who oppose the health care reform plan than supporting it. Political analysts opine that President Obama's health care reform plan will become the main debating issue in the coming midterm congressional election. Such prediction can affect the public opinion as midterm congressional election draws nearer each day.

In fact, this is a hint to show that although President Obama has won the congressional battle over his health care reform bill, but on the ground, he might lose the support of majority votes. It is not going to be an easy task for President Obama to win the coming midterm congressional election.

Employment Insurance System
Most Americans do not agree with President Obama's universal health care reform plan for the following two reasons:
First, it is because of the abortion issue. It remains a fact that majority of the people in the United States do not agree with abortion. However, President Obama's health care reform has included medical insurance coverage for abortion. As such for those who oppose abortion, they feel that they pay their taxes to encourage the evil formation of abortion. Since majority of the US people are indeed opposed to abortion, it has led to majority of the people also oppose to Obama's health care reform plan.

Second, the previous US employment insurance system allowed the employees and their family members to be covered with insurance benefits. As such, when the employees retired or if they sudden lost their jobs, they still do not have to worry about their health care insurance coverage. They feel this is a reward for the hard working people. They feel they deserve such benefits for they have worked hard and paid for the same.

The Hurdle
The problem is, with the health care reform bill enacted as law, the hard working people will have to pay more taxes to look after the medical welfare of the people who do not work as hard and thus do not deserve same health care benefits.

As such, most of the people in the United States criticize that Obama's health care reform plan will make the hard working people suffer but allow the lazy people to enjoy the health care benefits.

Google Shifts From China to Hong Kong

In order to live up to its words and its promise, the world's largest search engine site Google has officially announced it would shut down its China-based site, cease the filtering search results in Chinese and move to a Hong Kong-based portal. The decision to move Google from China to Hong Kong is apparently taking advantage of China's legal loopholes. To the Chinese authorities, such decision by Google is a challenge.

Unequivocal Statement
From a commercial point of view, this decision by Google is definitely not a win-win development for both parties. The technology in China is able to allow the Chinese authorities to block Chinese Internet users to access the Hong Kong based Google's Chinese sites that have not been censored and filtered by the Google corporation.

However, in its clear and unequivocal statement Google did criticize that more than 10 Chinese human rights activists' Gmail accounts have been hacked and that such hacking act was related to China's move to further restrict freedom of expression on the internet network in 2009. Therefore, due to Google's statement, China will again bear the stigma of stifling internet freedom.

Dissatisfaction and Indignation
Interestingly, after Google announced its withdrawal from China and move to Hong Kong, Google's competitors in the United States have not answered to Google's call to support the global debate on Internet freedom. Moreover, the Barack Obama administration that has taken a high-profiled manner to support Google earlier has also become silent without giving Google strong support as it has done in the past. In response to Google's statement and decision to withdraw from China, the White House statement only expressed its disappointment that Google has failed to reach an agreement with the Chinese Government.

However, although the Chinese authorities have sharply criticized Google's decision as breaching its promise with China, Chinese government only emphasized that "the Chinese government resolutely opposes to politicizing business issue. The Chinese authority expresses dissatisfaction and indignation to Google's unjustified accusation." Clearly, in order to pave a smoother path for Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to the United States, both the Chinese and the US authorities would like to play down the Google incident from now onward.

Dveloping Controversies

As the controversial Google dispute develops, it has now become an issue that it is Google's own insistence on the principle of Internet freedom that has led to its leaving the potential Chinese market. However, Google has continued to maintain its research and development team in China. Google has also maintained its sale personnel in China.

Moreover, we also notice that the Chinese authorities have also not making a point to pressure the closure of Google's research and development plant from China. It is not impossible for Google to return to China one day. Google's leaving the potential Chinese market is not a win-win development for both parties.

Vietnamese Officials Mull Over Internet Security Risks

In the Fifth Security World 2010 Conference and Showcase held recently in Hanoi, Nguyen Viet The, director of the Department of IT operations, Department General of Logistics and Technology, Ministry of Public Security has evaluated the situation of high tech crimes in 2009 is still alarming and complex. This is reflected through the following indicators: increase of website attacks and malicious viruses, the number of attacks has doubled and the criminals are targeting agencies in the financial, banking and stock exchange sectors for illegal profits.

When IT develops, we are facing new emerging challenges in the cyber space namely the problem of hackers. The explosion of IT and the development of a flat world have made the problem of cyber crimes more complex. According to the statistics, during 2009, our country has encountered more than 1,000 websites attacked by hackers, a double increase compared to 2008 (461 websites) and triple if compared to 2007 (342). The Internet network in Vietnam still poses latent security risks. In the first three months of this year, more than 300 websites belonging to individuals and organizations with the domain name have been have been probed and attacked by foreign hackers. The victim websites belong mainly to online transaction businesses, banks and service providers.

According to Nguyen Viet The, the reason for these attacks is largely due to the weakness of the websites in Vietnam with regard to the control of loopholes, weak management and by ignoring the security warning of the safety information organizations. The number of vulnerable security points discovered in 2009 has reached 4,000 (in 2008 only 3,500) with 30 percent of the loopholes are of high risk. Nearly half of the security loopholes (49 percent) do not have the remedy patches provided by the software supplier.Nguyen Viet informed that viruses are still a dangerous threat since 2009. More than 64.7 million times/computers were infected with viruses of which the most widespread are the family of the super polymorphic virus W32.SalityVF.PE which has infected over 483,000 computers. In Vietnam, there are more than 47,000 new variants of computer viruses, an increase of 30 percent compared to 2008.First appeared in 12-2008 and spreading widely by 4-2009, virus Conficker has caused headaches for security researchers and created confusion among computer users. It is estimated that in 2009, the damages caused by virus Conficker on infected computers have reached around $20 million. In Vietnam, there are 81,000 infected PC resulting in lost of billion VN Dong to businesses, organizations and individuals.

During 2009, with the 49 discovered cases of high-tech crimes alone, the damages caused by this sort of crime have reached thousand of billion VN Dong. The information attacks aimed at banks, stock exchange market are on the rise. But due to the sensitive nature of this sector, the majority of the cases are not reported or made public so people cannot totally assess the dangerous degree of such attacks.

New Threats

Answering questions from the press, Nguyen Viet The informed that one of the present threat is the installing of malware right on the hardware component. He gave an example of a battery charger through the USB port bought from the US also has malware. And inspection to discover malwares in these equipments is very difficult and requires the coordination of many countries to inspect right from the manufacturing and assembling stages. Though at the moment there are not many equipment discovered to be infected with malwares.

After the announcement of both VinaPhone and Viettel to supply iPhone with cheap price, around VND 4 million, even at Zero VND, an iPhone "fever" has erupted in Vietnam. Only after a few days after the announcement, there are already about 50,000 registrations to buy iPhone online. At the Security World 2010, security specialists have issued warning that this will be a new target for high-tech criminals when Apple comes to Vietnam.When the "Apple" becomes an electronic wallet to be used in e-commerce, e-business transforming the iPhone into a mini PC, the degree of danger will increase.In addition, the supplier Apple still has not got any information security safeguarding solution for iPhone and on the web there is already news of hackers trying to break into the "Apple." Hence, I believe 2010 will be a challenge for web security, particularly with the new services.

Saving Confidential Data

On this issue, Vu Quoc Khanh, Director of the Vietnam Computer Emergency Response Team (VNCERT) remarked that the smart phone of Apple uses an operating system and can install or download new software and in the process can be infected with malicious virus.Khanh warned that the user must be vigilant when saving confidential data in those phones series. On the other hand, internet service providers must exchange information, update their security services and join hand to fix the problem when it happens.Following are some of the predictions on the cyber security dangers in 2010:

* The attack technology will be more sophisticate and more effective; malwares will be more "malicious" and there will be more new security challenges in 2010.

* As the global economy is going through crisis, in the information era, hackers will strive every possible way to profit and make money.

* Social networks will become an appealing prey for hackers as they know that these social networks are not just a transient trend but a firm evolution into an effective means helping people to network and communicate with each other.

* In 2009, saw the appearance of a series of fake antivirus softwares in just a short period of time causing confusion to the web users around the world. By sending emails or through search engines, hackers lured the user to visit their fake anti virus online scanning websites, which have an interface similar to Windows. According to the statistics, in 2009 there were 144 fake anti-virus softwares. It is predicted that there will be many more fake anti-virus programs.

* There will appear many bootnets administered by highly skilled hackers together with the danger of possible wars on the internet (cyber wars).

Is India Losing Hold on Sri Lanka?

Indian Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao's recent visit to Sri Lanka stirred hope and optimism among Tamil factions as well as in Tamil media circles to a considerable extent. However, the same cannot be said of the Sinhala people and the Sinhala media.

The question raised by most people is; what is the objective of her visit to Sri Lanka had been, especially at this time? Until someone who is well connected with the decision makers in New Delhi tell us what the true reason was, we have nothing much to do than seek refuge in speculations. Nevertheless, it is now obvious that it has nothing to do with the Tamil question. Then, of course it should be in the interest of India.

Relations With India
Since recent times, we observed, especially after the presidential election, that no one in Colombo seems to be showing any enthusiasm about the Colombo-Delhi relationship. This dreary attitude is a sharp contrast to the excited atmosphere that prevailed here a few months ago, during the latter half of 2009. Because of the affiliations in the war, both countries seemed to be very chummy during that period.

Now, it appears that the 'flirting' has suddenly ended. Some eyebrows in Delhi were raised and foreheads were creased when President Mahinda Rajapaksa went to Russia in his first visit after ending the war in Sri Lanka. Considering the volume of support New Delhi extended to Rajapaksa during the decisive phase of his war against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Ealam (LTTE), as well as the blessings bestowed by them for his controversial presidential contest, it is to India he should have paid his first visit after the conclusion of both contests.

However, even after two months of the conclusion of the presidential election, not only did the Lankan president make a goodwill visit to his closest neighbor, nor has he made any strong gesture to indicate that he has not forgotten. Of course, some statements were issued by the Presidential Secretariat to thrill New Delhi to the effect that, "Sri Lankan soil would never be allowed to be used for any action against India," and so forth. But even these kind of political lullabies have stopped since the past two months.

Considering these transformations, the million dollar question that arises now is: "Will the relationship of Colombo with New Delhi fadeout during the second tenure of Mahinda Rajapaksa's office?' The time will provide an answer to this question. It is important to note that certainly India too should have felt this sudden change of attitude of Sri Lanka.

There is another matter that should be mentioned at this juncture. India was not allowed to play any role in the gigantic development activities that are earmarked for the Hambantota District and in the surrounding areas in the south, which is the forte of Mahinda Rajapaksa.

Massive Development Projects
All the massive development projects have been granted to China. It was learned that Beijing has agreed to help build a most modern airport in south. Therefore, if there is any ebb tide in the Colombo-New Delhi 'love affair', there is a sense of urgency from the Delhi (not from Colombo) that it should be rectified as soon as possible. India's melancholy became evident by the congratulatory attitude radiated by Madam Rao during her short stay in the island. She was full of praises and applauds during her stay here. She even said India and Sri Lanka are like two sisters.

Moreover, utilizing this opportunity to please Tamil Nadu could have been another supplementary objective of New Delhi. Karunanithi had issued a statement a few weeks ago, more or les, to the effect that they will strive to win a just solution for the Lankan Tamils ethnic issue. By this, it becomes apparent that for some reason, Tamil Nadu needs the Lankan Tamils to win a political solution for the ethnic problem.

May be Chennai did turn some screws that are painful to New Delhi in this regard. May be, it could be that center wanted to please its southernmost state. It also could be that is why New Delhi chanted old lines such as "reconciliation among communities," "resolution for the ethnic issue," prior to Rao's Colombo expedition. New Delhi is well aware that statements are all that is needed to humor Tamil Nadu.

India's Objective
Probably, this could have been only an additional objective of India, while the prime objective being related with the one we mentioned earlier. However, it has become explicitly clear that India is not going to assume an offensive or punitive posture against her naughty little sister. New Delhi believes that maintaining control over Colombo, at this juncture, should be attained by radiating goodwill.

At any cost, the relationship should be maintained. That is why; Colombo was applauded and back-patted while several aid programs were announced, especially to resettle displaced people in the North and the East. Also infrastructure development was pledged for Mullattivu and Kilinochchi Districts along with financial assistance to construct railway tracks in the North. Feasibility of establishing a branch of the Indian High Commission in Jaffna too was explored.

Tamil Issue
What about the Tamil question? There is nothing significant in that direction though some persons still think wishfully that India is relentlessly pressing Sri Lanka to find a solution for the ethnic issue pronto. This is not true.

In fact, India is no longer in a position to coerce Sri Lanka. If New Delhi wishes to be 'hanging around' in the island, at least under the pretext of monitoring the aforesaid aid projects, it is important that it secures the goodwill of Colombo. If Colombo declines assistance, there is nothing the big sister could do. The only other option India has is resorting back to its old strategy of conspiring against Colombo as it did during 1980s. India presently does not relish theatrical conspiracies. Therefore, all what is left is sweet-talk Sri Lanka.

Conclusion
In a nutshell, India is not in a position to call shots for the Lankan ethnic issue. That is why the good Madam Rao kept mum with regard to this issue thus pulling the rug off Tamil factions here. May be the subject could have been skimmed and it could be that the president did not make any enticing moves. And the bitter fact is that India has nothing to do in this regard.

However, it becomes apparent when observing the potentials of the projects of New Delhi, that it has shown keen interest in tools that would give India controlling interest, not just over the North and East regions but if possible, upon the entire people of Sri Lanka. An embassy in Jaffna is nothing but a medium to control the Tamil people in the region.

Therefore, it should be comprehended without any illusions that India is not going to champion a speedy political resolve for the Tamil ethnic problem here. Also, it would not be surprising at all if we Tamils have to try to wriggle ourselves from the political pull of India once again.

Afghan Government Fails To Check Corruption, Restore Peace

It is amazing that after their eight years in Afghanistan, the international community does not realize whether Hamid Karzai and his government, in fact, have the capacity to check corruption in the country or not. In fact, they fail to understand whether Karzai and his government can check corruption in a situation that corruption is started, strengthened and supported by this government itself.

Now, conditions President Barack Obama has put forward to President Karzai, which are to ensure good governance, eliminate corruption, check narcotics trafficking, restore peace, and bring the criminals to trial, seem to be a plot to deceive people. All, particularly the United States, knows that all people in the Karzai government, right from Karzai himself to a district chief, are supporting corruption rather than controlling and checking the same.

They know that introduction of reforms is out of the power of this government in many ways:
1. Corruption in Government
Corruption in the Afghan Government is no more limited to persons. It is now among the families. The brothers, sons, daughters, wives, and even near relatives of all those having power through slots in the government are involved in corruption. Therefore, it is now impossible to check corruption on personal level. Now, even checking corruption on the level of families seems to be something impossible.

2. Fair Cabinet
The formation of a fair cabinet is impossible because before the presidential election, the portfolios in the Afghan Government had been distributed among thieves, robbers, murderers and war lords who are having strong links in the government, and who act like levers around whom the entire government is revolving. Karzai is not having his ministers and his own nominated governor because the portfolios were distributed among groups with the force of guns. Karzai, therefore, cannot reshuffle the whole cabinet to reorganize it as a good cabinet. Even if he forms a new cabinet in a way that half of it is formed on the basis of his pledges during elections and the remaining half of it comprises new and technocratic people, even then, honest people would not prefer to work in such a cabinet having people of different and opposite mentalities. And even if the honest people work in such a cabinet, they will do it with a great difficulty. It is so because the Afghan Government has now been converted to a field of Buz Kashi (an Afghan game, in which horse-riders drag dead goat) by those forces, who were organized by the intelligence agencies of other countries. And good people are routed in this field of the game. No one who is having an ideology, who loves his country and people and who is having honesty and belief, will ever want to be a part of such a government.

3. Checking Narcotics Trafficking
Checking of narcotics trafficking has actually got out of the government's control. Family members and friends of the top tier of the authorities in the government are involved in narcotics trafficking. And no one can check them because the control of the current government is in the hands of a strong narcotics mafia. Hence, it is impossible to bring an end to narcotics trafficking in the country. It is a mere excuse to say that the Taliban are generating finances from narcotics trafficking. Narcotics are transported via long routes in Afghanistan. The narcotics traffickers cross the areas where the Taliban have no control. The Taliban may take benefits from narcotics in the areas under their control. But at the moment, all the highways and big cities are under the control of the government. Then, who are carrying narcotics to the Taliban and who are purchasing drugs from them? If the international community is not blind, it should "kindly" see banglows in Sherpur Forte. Most of these houses belong to the top officials in the present government. Can a minister, an adviser or a governor get such a huge amount through fair means? This very fact is a proof that the center of narcotics trafficking is inside the present government itself and not outside the same. All groups of narcotics traffickers that were out of the government or that were having a weaker lobby in the Afghan Government are in the prisons. Go and see how many officials of the government or the persons they have hired for the transportation of narcotics are in prisons for the crime of narcotics trafficking?

4. Restoring Security
Restoration and maintenance of security in the country will be a dream until the government is completely reshuffled, because it is the government itself that is responsible for deteriorating law and order situation. Security situation in the country is not in a position now, in which a corrupt government is having the power to disarm a force like the Taliban, who carry out their activities even in the heart of Kabul and who are having the control of many areas in the country. Worsening of the security situation is related to the Taliban. A larger part of it is related to the government itself. It is the government that has made the people upset, that has made corruption to rule the country and has empowered the robbers to rule. The government has created disunity among the people; it has imposed hunger and unemployment on people; it has deceived the country through false pledges, an example of which was seen during the presidential elections.

5. Problems With Karzai

The international community is having some problems with Karzai. Whether they tell lies or truth, but they have put people in troubles. The international community is having problems, first with Karzai and his family, that is, his brothers. Moreover, it is having troubles with his governmental corruption. Then, it is having troubles with corruption in government, narcotics trafficking and last, with insecurity. Solution to these problems and control of the persons involved in these is out of the control of the Karzai government. So, if Obama has not gained enough experience and if he has not come to know about the weakness of Karzai and his weak and corrupt group, it will be an extreme inexperience on the part of President Obama to give another test to Karzai for the next six months. And everyone knows that Karzai will never succeed in this test, because he could not succeed in this regard when there was complete peace in the country. Now, correcting the situation is like a dream, because on one hand, security situation is worsening with the passage of every single day, on the other, corruption has been increasing.

6. National Reconciliation
In the history of Afghanistan, direct reconciliation by coming face to face meeting of adverse groups for the first time has never taken place, particularly when the groups have been at enmity for such a long time and have killed thousands of people from each other. It has always been the responsibility of a third party to reconcile them, to take decisions for them and to guarantee peace and reconciliation between them. That is why the reconciliation under the leadership of the present government has no chances of success at all. And the country is also not playing any part in this process, because Karzai is not having a suitable plan. Moreover, now the Taliban also call themselves strong and they do not accept reconciliation easily.
7. Trial of the Criminals
This is also impossible because the campaigners of Karzai were all those who were criminals and whose hands were stained with the blood of the Afghans and who got, and are still getting, financial support from Karzai. Without these criminals, Karzai is not having any role or if he is having a role without them, it is very minor. Otherwise, he would not have committed such a vast rigging in his election.

Karzai mainly depended on those criminals in his election. So, in this case, if he is bringing the criminals to justice, he should first bring his supporters to justice. And this is something out of Karzai's power to do.

This lazy and hypocritical politics has some results:
1. The United States wants to have a weak and corrupt government in Afghanistan that is also involved in drug trafficking. Perhaps the United States wants such a government in Afghanistan, and is supporting and retaining it to prepare a way for sending more troops to Afghanistan and to make an excuse for its forces to stay there and shorten the time for its long-term strategy in the region. This action on their part will arouse the feelings of the neighbors of Afghanistan and will provide them with an excuse to carry out terrorist activities in the country through their paid people.

2. It is also possible that the current war has become a burden on the United States and its allies, and they are in search of finding an excuse to quit Afghanistan. But withdrawal from Afghanistan on the basis of such an excuse will be considered as a defeat on the part of the United States, as it was considered a defeat on the part of the Soviet Union in past. This withdrawal will also bring another problem to the surface, which will have a negative impact not only on Afghanistan but on the whole world.

For the solution of this problem, both the Afghans and the international community should find a way that no more are the Afghans or the international community troubled for the sack of a small and corrupt group. Obama's six-month plan is not beneficial for the Afghans and international community. In addition to a time wasting and deceiving process, this problem needs a decisive action, which is to introduce the third mechanism.

Obama Considers Health Care Reform Important Agenda of Presidency

Finally, US President Barack Obama managed to have his biggest political engineering work, which is the US health care bill, passed by the US Congress. The bill was passed with 219 supporting votes as against 212 opposing votes.

Fighting to have the health care reform bill passed has not been an easy battle for President Obama. Nevertheless, President Obama has at least won the battle. However, he and the average American people understood that this was a narrowed victory and a victory that President Obama could not be too proud about the result.

Support for Bill
There were a total 431 congressional seats in that Congress. President Obama's Democratic Party has taken up a total of 253 seats and the opposing Republican only has 178 seats. However when the voting result was known, President Obama only received a total 219 supporting votes. Apparently, there were as many as 34 Democrat congressional representatives did not abide with party line to support the Obama Government's health care reform bill. If President lost four more votes at that critical voting period, his health care bill would be rejected.

Despite the fact that President Obama has cancelled his scheduled visit to Australia and Indonesia and absorbed the embarrassment in public diplomacy by staying back in Washington to lobby the lawmakers, he still could not convince 34 Democrat lawmakers to change their minds and support his health care reform bill. The fact that President Obama has such a narrowed victory in getting his health care bill passed by the Congress has reflected the reality that his health care reform plan does not reflect the views of the majority US citizens.

During the time when the US Congress was debating on the health care bill, the result of the public opinion poll jointly organized by the ABC television channel and Washington Post, a US mainstream media that supports the Obama administration, has shown that there were more people opposing the health care reform bill than the people wanting to support it. This public opinion poll has also shown that President Obama's health care reform bill did not get the consensus of the majority of people.

Reducing Federal Deficit
President Obama wants to use US$ 950 billion tax payer's money to implement the first stage of his national health care plan. This first phase of health care insurance expenditure can help the Obama government to reduce $138 billion federal deficit. This is a health care policy that needs to use high amount of tax payers' money to help the government to save just little money. What the government needs to do next will perhaps be to increase tax or to increase the medical fee for senior citizens. As such many people have criticized Obama's health care medical bill as a bill that can indirectly murder the elderly citizens.

President Obama has his reason to insist on his health care reform pan. He said in the United States as high as 40 million citizens were without health care insurance to protect them. His health care reform plan could allow these 40 million needy people to obtain health care insurance protection.

The Other View
In theory, the action taken by President Obama is laudable for universal medical insurance coverage for all citizens is an equitable policy. However, many American people still feel that there is this 'lazy class of people' who does not want to work hard to earn their living but want to enjoy free medical benefits. The tax payers do not agree to use their income tax to look after the lazy class of people in the society. Many tax payers are also unwilling to use their money to assist in forced abortion. These are perhaps the reasons why majority of the US people are not agreeable with President Obama's universal health care reform plan.

In fact, among the Democratic Party presidents such as Truman, John Kennedy, and Bill Clinton have all tried but could not achieve this massive health care reform plan that President Obama managed to get done. The main reason is that President Obama has insisted on his health care reform plan. He considers this health care reform agenda as his most important mission as the US President.

High-Level Pak-US Strategic Dialogue

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has stated about high-level Pak-US strategic dialogue that the United States will provide $125 million assistance to Pakistan. Moreover, the United States has also assured Pakistan cooperation in thermal power projects and giving Pakistani goods access to US markets. She has stated many others areas of cooperation and assistance.

Dialogue's result depends on General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, Pakistan Army chief's negotiations. He is at the back. Kayani is sincere to people and the country. Some segments feel only General Kayani and General Ahmed Shuja Pasha, ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) chief, are being given importance in Washington. According to sources, General Kayani's wife, son, daughter and daughter-in-law are with him in Washington. General Kayani is busy in Washington dialogue while the family is residing in New York.

Satisfied and Confident
"Official wedding procession" has arrived in the United States with a long list of demands. The Wall Street Journal claims a list of 56 pages has been handed over to Obama administration. The bridegroom from Pakistan is Shah Mehmud Qureshi while the United States considers General Kayani as the bridegroom. Efforts are on to tie new knots to the old relations. Amendment to the democratic system is also being deliberated. Wedding customs have formally started. The most interesting character among the hosts and the guests is General Kayani.

Warm welcome accorded to General Kayani by the US officials and media gives an impression that the Pakistani Government does not feel threatened during General Kayani's tenure. The United States feels satisfied and confident in negotiating with Pakistan Army. Foreign Minister Shah Mehmud Qureshi is the bridegroom in Pakistani delegation. However, the United States has wedlock with Pakistan Army. Finance Minister Ahmed Mukhtar, a participant in the dialogue, has secondary importance. Some segments believe that traditional dialogue between Pakistan and the United States is being portrayed as strategic dialogue in order to befool people.

Importance of Talks
The process of dialogue between the government's wedding procession and the "US Empire" is mere eyewash. Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari government's supporters and opponents are busy in comments and discussions while the Pakistani community in the United States does not attach any importance to this dialogue. They say Pakistan neither was nor will be free to make its own decisions. Pakistan ahs always been governed by the Army. Democratic governments are nothing more than puppets.

The Pakistani community feels that the Army is supporting the incumbent regime as well. Some segments feel that General Kayani enjoys the same status as generals of yore enjoyed in Pakistan. Only a dictatorship and dictatorial democracy in Pakistan suits the United Stats. The incumbent government has come to power, apparently, through peace's votes. However, it is looking for scaffoldings to complete its term. Pakistan has an elected president as well. However, the real force comes from the Army and Army is considered synonymous with the United States. The segment, weary of Army and the so-called democratic regimes feels that the Army has very cleverly taken advantage of civil government's weakness.

Interference in Pakistani Politics
The United States considers the civilian government corrupt and inefficient whereas the Army is carrying out successful military operations, is arresting wanted terrorists, cooperating fully with the United States in war on terror. That is why Army is the focus of this dialogue. Simply put, the bride is not being wed with the bridegroom. The Pakistani delegation's body language shows that Pakistan's democratic government is feeble while the general is strong. Corrupt and dishonest government can never look straight into the US and Indian eyes, while the military bigwigs can look clearly through the US glasses. The US interference in Pakistani politics is as customary as oil and Henna are in wedding ceremonies. The ruler, whoever he might be, has to follow the rules; otherwise he will be sent packing.

The "villain" is closely looking at the Pak-US relations, especially the meetings. India is not willing to retreat any front including the important issues like nuclear deal with the United States, the water, Kashmir and Afghanistan issues. India is a US friend as Pakistan is. There are limits to implementation on Pakistan's wish list.

However, the Indian friendship is preferred. India has reservations over General Kayani's protocol and his inclusion in the dialogue. Pakistan believes that India wants to weaken the Pakistan Army, diminish its power and pride. However, the United States has different designs. Hillary Clinton said we have talked about developing Pakistan Army on modern footings. The United States has friendly relations with both Pakistan and India. Clinton said we cannot pressurize India over water issue in Pakistan.

India To Continue Reconstruction Work in Afghanistan

Afghanistan and India do not have a common border today. A third country, i.e., Pakistan is now dividing them. But there was a time when that country was an important part of the ancient Indian empire. According to eminent historians, the Aryan culture spilled over to India's mainland from here. Later, it also became the center for spreading Buddhism.

Strengthening Old Ties
Thousands of years have passed since then. The situation in the subcontinent has changed drastically. India-Afghanistan friendship is reaching new heights.

However, conditions in Afghanistan turned from bad to worse after its separation from India. It became a toy in the tug-of-war of foreign powers. Totally ruined after being treated as a playground by the United Kingdom, the United States, and Russia, it faces the greatest threat today from Pakistan, which handed over this country to a monster like the Taliban. As a result, Afghanistan has once again become a war field.

Removal of Taliban
The Taliban rule in Afghanistan has been overthrown. Yet, its remnants are still creating trouble. International effort is continuing to reconstruct the country destroyed by the Taliban. India is playing a leading role in it, much to Pakistan's chagrin. Pakistan leaves no stone unturned to obstruct this work. The Indian Embassy there has been attacked several times as part of this plot. Places where Indians involved in the reconstruction of Afghanistan reside have become special targets. The hands of Pakistan's notorious intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), in these attacks have also been exposed.

Time and again, Pakistan has gone all out to reveal its dislike for India's presence in Afghanistan. But despite all threats, India is not prepared to shirk away from its responsibility toward its neighbor. It has spent more than Rs.2 billion for providing facilities like schools, roads, hospitals, and electricity in the country, thoroughly devastated by the war.

Main Responsibilities
It is said that more than 4,000 Indians are helping to make the country self reliant at enormous risks to their lives. The Afghan Government is quite cautious about the security of Indians, but it has its own limitations. In this situation, the Indian Government is also sending its security forces there.

The very sights of Indians delight Afghans today, whereas they are allergic even to the mention of Pakistan. That is why India must adhere to its task of helping Afghanistan, despite all odds. No direct gain might seem to be derived from it. Yet, by carrying out its obligation, India may play a crucial role in foiling Pakistan's terrorist conspiracies. One of the main responsibilities of India is to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a terrorist grazing ground.

Israeli Premier's Stand Challenge to US Administration

The disagreements between the administration of US President Barack Obama and the Israeli Government, led by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, over the settlement activity in occupied Jerusalem have increased. According to US dailies, these disagreements were clearly evident at the latter's meetings and tense talks with US officials.

Internal and External Interests
Netanyahu considers himself more powerful than the US President and his administration's officials because he enjoys great support from the two largest establishments in the United States, the Congress and the Jewish lobby, AIPAC (American-Israeli Public Affairs Committee). Therefore, he appeared uninterested in the calls on him to halt the settlement activity and go back to the table of indirect negotiations with the Palestinian side.

This arrogant stand on the part of the Israeli prime minister constitutes the greatest challenge, not only to President Obama, but also to the entire governing US establishment. This challenge makes it incumbent on the governing US establishment to confront the Israeli prime minister forcefully and effectively in a way that will serve the United States' internal and, particularly, external interests.

Successive Israeli Governments rebelled against the White House in the past, but the disagreements and crises that resulted from their action were not so serious that they were difficult to contain or overcome. The current crisis, however, is completely different in terms of its timing and the magnitude of dangers that it entails.

Wars in Region
The United States is currently fighting two ferocious wars in the region, one in Iraq and the other in Afghanistan. At least about a quarter of a million US soldiers are taking part in these two wars, and the Israeli settlement activities and acts of aggression began to have a negative effect on the US soldiers in these two wars, as was admitted by Commander of the US Central Command David Petraeus.

What we mean to say is that the United States cannot contain the current crisis through the same means that it used to contain previous crises. In addition, Israel currently suffers a quasi international isolation and increasing campaigns of hatred in the circles of the peoples of its allies in the Western states, namely in Europe.

Aggression Against Gaza Strip
Israel is no longer the only democratic state in the Middle East that represents the Western culture and abides by the law. Rather, it has become a terrorist rogue state in the eyes of many people following the war crimes that it committed during its latest aggression against the Gaza Strip and after it used the passports of more than six Western states (the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Ireland, Australia, and Italy) in assassinating martyr Mahmud al-Mabhuh. Al-Mabhuh, one of the founders of the military wing of the Islamic Resistance Movement, HAMAS, was assassinated in an allied and peaceful state, the United Arab Emirates.

We do not know who will emerge as a winner in the current conflict between Obama and Netanyahu, between the president of a superpower and the prime minister of a small state that cannot live or rather survive without the former's support and backing. What we do know, however, is that the United States is the loser so far, only because this crisis broke out the way we saw, which was humiliating to the United States and to its international and regional standing.

Freezing Settlement Activity
What is certain is that the United States will not give up its Israeli ally because of the current crisis. On the other hand, Netanyahu will not make it easy for the United States to back down on its current stand on the need to halt or freeze the settlement activity to save what has remained of the peace process, which is truly collapsed. Netanyahu announced that occupied Jerusalem is not a settlement, but an eternal capital for the State of Israel.

What is noticeable is the fact that the Arab states are standing as spectators and not trying to help their US ally in such a confrontation with Israel. But this is not a strange stand because these states have no weight and value and are accustomed to living on the sidelines and to receiving insults and slaps.