India's Foreign Trade Policy

The five-year foreign trade policy that was announced by the Commerce Ministry on 27 August to better India's present shameful share of 1.5 percent in total global trade has several limitations. In fact, it is a hesitant step, as the document dishes out the roadmap for just two years instead of five, citing recession.

Situation of Global Economy
The export target declared in it is also not ambitious because the mention of $200 billion export a year was also made in the policy presented five years ago. But these limitations cannot be ignored in view of the unusual situations of global economy.

The present situation demands such practicality. But more commendable thing in it is that there is a glimpse of concrete effort to free the export sector after a long time from the shadow of the United States and Europe.

Export Growth
India's 70 percent export gone to just three destinations-the United States, Europe, and Japan. Since these three places have emerged later as centers of global recession, it was quite natural that, with their falling demand, India's export sector also had to go down.

Learning a lesson from the export registering a drop of 30 percent in the past 10 months, the Commerce Ministry has now declared export targets for Latin America and several African countries. Similarly, the decision to continue tax exemption and different concessions for exporters is also in the right direction, because exporters suffering from a strong Rupee and cold demand from developed countries badly needed some relief.

Weakness in Export Market
However, the biggest weakness of the Indian export market is that it is compelled to sell goods at 20 percent higher prices than main rival countries such as China, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Cambodia, etc. The high interest rates of export and extremely high transaction costs are the main reasons for it, which have not received adequate attention in the new foreign trade policy.

There has been some effort in this direction through abolishing the fees for applying for different incentive schemes and increasing the facility of electronic transaction, but overall, there does not appear to be any major improvement through such petty steps. It is not without reason that most export organizations are not very enthusiastic about this policy. More dialogue with exporters-importers could perhaps have been the foundation of a better foreign trade policy.

Pakistan At 62

August is a blessed month as 62 years ago a new Muslim country appeared on the world map in the form of Pakistan. The creation of Pakistan was nothing short of a miracle as it was created after thousands of sacrifices. When the time to get rid of the British rule in India came, Hindus began to think that they will now have the opportunity to rule Muslims.

According to the world acclaimed system of politics, democracy, Muslims would have been in minority, while Hindus would have fulfilled their dreams of ruling India as they formed the significant majority. This thinking of Hindus was gauged by the visionary personality of Allama Iqbal and he brought forward Qaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah for the leadership of the Muslim League. Thus, it was because of the efforts and pains taken by Qaid-e-Azam and the Muslim League that Pakistan was created.

Separate Homeland of Indian Muslims
After a period of seven years since the Pakistan resolution, Pakistan was created and hence the dream of a separate homeland for the Indian Muslims was fulfilled. After the creation of Pakistan, thousands of Muslims had to migrate from India to Pakistan. During this journey Hindus and Sikhs began killing Muslims and they did not even spare women, elderly people or children. The ones who were spared of their atrocities were able to reach Pakistan. This migration reminded us of the Migration from Mecca to Medina by the holy Prophet Mohammad.

A lot of people migrated to Pakistan just for the sake of Islam. The Pakistani people also replicated the Ansars of Medina and welcomed the Mohajirs with open hands; hence a new Pakistan began its life journey. The country was established for the sake of Islam, but it has largely remained the domain and politics of the Muslim cleric, chants of the opportunists and in the hearts of ordinary Muslims.

Basis of Ideology
The country was created for the sake of democracy, but it largely became subservient to the wishes of the Army, who ruled over the country for more than half the time since the existence of Pakistan. This country was established on the basis of an ideology, but it was broken down into parts. By losing Bangladesh, we allowed Indira Gandhi to critically state that she has dumped the ideology of Pakistan in the Arabian Sea and has taken revenge for being under the slavery of Muslims for years. The man who raised the slogan that "we will live here, while you live there" received a lot of appreciation for holding an Islamic Conference in the remaining Pakistan, while, in fact, it was organized to recognize Bangladesh. Politicians have always proven to be incompetent. That is why the Army gets an opportunity to come to power, however, the interesting thing is that the idea of municipal level democracy (basic democracy) has always been put forward by the Army generals, while the politicians have been wary of holding elections within their own party so that their dominance within the party does not wither away.

Derive Personal Gains
Religious cleric, generals, clerks, or politicians, and even every person working in any capacity have looted the country to derive personal gains. The way the country has remained into existence is nothing short of a miracle. Despite looting and incompetence, some good people have also come to this country and God has taken the desired work from them.

If you take the example of Ayub Khan among the dictators, he achieved a great feat by establishing a new city in the form of Islamabad and making it the federal capital, he built the Tarbela and Mangla dam, and he is credited for discovering the popular leader Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. He used to call Ayub "daddy", although later he stood up against him and became a popular leader. Bhutto achieved the feat of flour and sugar shortage in the country and in addition, he did great damage to the country by nationalizing the domestic business enterprises and educational institutes.

Under the garb of feudalism, Bhutto raised the slogan of "Roti, Karpa or Makan" and made the common man stand in queues for daily commodities. Despite numerous faults, he had charismatic leadership abilities and is credited for creating political awareness among the masses. The 1973 constitution is an achievement of Bhutto and the will to create a nuclear weapon for Pakistan even if the citizens of the country will be made to have grass to sustain itself is another of his accomplishments. Steel mill, atomic program, the 1973 constitution, and giving the proletariat an identity are the achievements of Bhutto, but he was too hungry for power and this hunger led to the separation of Pakistan. If he would have allowed the assembly session after the elections to take place in Dhaka, Pakistan would not have split into two halves. The same lust for power forced him to commit the heinous crime of rigging the elections in September and General Zia-ul-Haq benefited from this stubbornness of Bhutto. Gen Zia was once the blue eyed boy of Bhutto, but once Gen Zia saw the opportunity he lunged on to power by pushing aside Bhutto. Despite being a dictator, Gen Zia showed good political acumen and he had complete control over the affairs of the country for a decade. Gen Zia tried to Islamicise the Army and shut down any alcohols dens in the Army to infuse the spirit of Islam in them. He became the heartthrob of the Muslim world by supporting Afghanistan in the war against Russia. After the death of Gen Zia, democratic era came back to the country, as Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif jostled for power between each other. The public became dissatisfied with these democratic governments and they also failed to complete the tenure of their respective governments.

Rule of Dictatorship
In Pakistan, democratic governments and military dictatorships repeated past mistakes, which led to their downfall. During the past decade, a military dictator came at the helm of power after sending Nawaz Sharif to exile. Apparently, he looked like a person who is a panacea to all ills in the country, but his actions have shown that he caused the most damage to the country as compared to other national rulers. Former President Pervez Musharraf prevented Nawaz Sharif from returning back to the country, he also benefited from the self exile of Benazir Bhutto. He experimented with new strategies that shook the foundations of the country. He washed in blood the whole area from Waziristan to Red Mosque, and sowed such seeds of lawlessness that his descendants are cutting the harvest.

Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto displayed exemplary understanding by apologizing for the past grievances and dispute between them and prepared a document like the charter of democracy. Although, this was not acceptable to fate and the antistate elements and they removed Benazir Bhutto from the way and when the time for Musharraf to leave power came he handed over the governance to people who are strictly adhering to his policies.

Numerous Ups and Downs
The past 62 years of Pakistan have witnessed numerous ups and downs, but the county was able to progress in the right direction, although at a snail pace. A dictator like Ayub Khan gave the country a new capital and dam projects, while a political leader like Nawaz Sharif constructed the motorway, laid down the foundations of the Gwadar port, and established new airports in Karachi and Lahore.

The creation of Pakistan was not an easy feat since it was not acceptable to both the British and Hindus. It was only acceptable to the supreme creator, God. Hence, God has taken the mantle of protecting this country. That is why false intentions of India have not been backed up with actions on the ground.

Nuclear and Missile Development
Pakistan may be in a pathetic state, but it was blessed to have a great scientist like Abdul Qadeer Khan. The nuclear program was initiated by Ayub Khan, which was ably carried forward by Bhutto and finally Nawaz Sharif carried out the atomic bombs in reply to those done by India. The missile capacity of Pakistan is even perceived as a threat by Israel, and Al-Khalid is also a much talked about missile in the world. Unfortunately corruption, nepotism, and the failure to adhere to merit standards have not allowed the institutions to properly grow in the country.

In the past few years, the media have also become mature and independent and they have started creating awareness in the public. The media played a frontline role in the lawyer movement against the maligned intentions of Musharraf and now the judiciary has become an independent and important institution that is playing a key role in the country. It is hoped that this process of awareness will continue and the common people will be more honest and responsible in the selection of its elected representatives. As a result of this the institutions in the country will strengthen and hence the country will become more powerful.

Presidential Elections in Afghanistan

The second presidential election in Afghanistan was held on 20 August amid bomb explosions, raids on poling stations, bloody clashes with the occupation US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces. Could it be possible for the candidates to organize election processions, meetings, and establish contacts with the voters in the shadow of the bayonets of the collectively 300,000 police personnel and Army of the puppet Karzai administration, including 100,000 NATO forces? The general of the US occupation military had already determined the winning candidate in the elections and have planned for "positive results." Tactics of force, threats, and forgery have been used and its open proof is that the vote counting has not been done yet, but Hamid Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah have announced their success. They claimed to have secured 50 percent votes.

Abdullah Abdullah has expressed his reservation in a very humble and formal manner that the rival may not obtain even 50 percent votes. Therefore, the second phase of the elections will become inevitable in October. However, a person involved in corruption and drug trafficking from his head to toes claims on the decrees of his US masters that he has won 50 percent votes. If the results that would be officially announced two weeks later confirm his assertion, it will be clear that the results have already been determined. Therefore, claim and counterclaim have no validity except another deception.

Fake Presidential Candidates
Moreover, the statement by Zadria Barkazai, deputy chief of the so-called Election Commission of Afghanistan, discloses the claim of the fake presidential candidates that 40 to 50 percent votes were cast in the elections, whereas this ratio of casting votes was 70 percent in the presidential elections of 2004. He has refused to confirm the claims of Karzai and Abdallah saying that the Election Commission will announce the results. Therefore, both candidates should demonstrate patience and tolerance. However, what will these power-hungry persons and traitors of their homeland get?

Rigging and Interventions
A respected and reliable organization EFFA has expressed concerns over widespread rigging and interventions in the elections, while International Republican Institute, a US-based organization now occupying Afghanistan, has opined that, although the election process confirmed serious problems, yet it was reliable. However, the US organization did not explain the serious problems interfering in the election process, and in spite of those problems, the election process was transparent.

More than that, Ibrah Second (first Ibrah attacked Mecca before the birth of the holy Prophet) Obama sitting 11,000 km away welcomed this drama and expressed his determination to continue the policy of military deployment in Afghanistan.

He has showered praises on this election drama, for it is being staged according to his plans, and his favorite candidate will be declared successful. However, the elation of Obama and Gordon Brown ended when three soldiers of the US occupation forces were killed in eastern Afghanistan in the bomb explosions on the roads and subsequent shelling. Moreover, two British soldiers were also killed in Helmand Province. Therefore, Obama will receive election gift of the dead bodies of three brigands and Gordon Brown will received two. This is life, sometimes happiness, sometimes grief.

The media of this crusading Christian faction are airing the impression that large-scale attacks could not take place during the elections as expected. This was also echoed in a statement by Richard Holbrooke, US envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, who is running amok between these two countries like a pawn.

The readers should understand that as the dialogues of some script are learnt and repeated for rehearsal, similarly the statements of the Ibrah Second, Obama and the US organization, International Republican Institute have also been learned and repeated, for they are professional liars.

The United States and the United Kingdom pressure and television channels give a wide-scale coverage to the election congregation of Mir Hoseyn Musavi, instead of the meeting and processions of his rival Mahmud Ahmadinezhad. Even this was not enough; forgery and journalistic dishonesty went up to its extreme when the Western media presented the greatest procession of Ahmadinezhad as Musvai's procession; the same trick was played in Afghanistan. Why does Karzai live underground, if he is so popular? How many electoral campaigns in the country has he led? Why should he conduct campaigns? The US occupation forces are doing this job for him. The people were threatened to be killed along with their women and children, if they did not participate in the elections. More than 135 incidents of violence occurred on the elections day, in which 26 soldiers and common people were killed. Four huge explosions took place in Kandahar. Rockets were fired on the residential areas, while the provincial chief Muhammad Kabir Andrabi of Gaghlan Province said that the battle has been going on since morning and the fighters have been pushed back. More than 22 fighters have been killed.The chief of the Election Commission admitted that the voting process got topsy-turvy in Kabul.

Taliban Factor
The Taliban stormed three polling stations in the western province of Herat, set a building on fire and destroyed all ballot papers. This was reported by the district governor. The Taliban were pushed back in Kandoz when they stormed a polling station. Tow suicide bombers were killed in Gardez. Gen Muhammad Zahir Azimi of the defense ministry claimed this.

What would happen after that? This is the question in the mind of everybody. Obama is not in his daydream, for it he pitted Shiite, Sunni and Kurds against one another in Iraq and established a coalition government, while remaining in the background. In other words, the United States would continue its hold on the military bases and it has full control on oil. Similarly, it will set up a remote-controlled government in Afghanistan too. However, the first point is that stability could not return to Iraq and it cannot be brought over there, too. The reason is that the United States has started disintegrating the country by dividing it among Shiite, Sunni and Kurds. Moreover, it has removed the Ba'ath Party from the scene and paved the way for the Iranian intervention. This move will intensify tension among the Arab and non-Arab (Iran).

Similarly, the United States intends to establish supremacy of the non-Pashtuns in Afghanistan by breaking their (Pashtuns') power. Therefore, it would never want to bring any Tajik or Uzbek into power. It has to place some Pashtun on the seat of the head for just show. It wants to appoint him on the post of president as a hostage besieged by Tajik, Uzbek, and Hazara tribes.

However, it is confronting threats to its neo-colonial plans from Pashtun tribes living across the Durand Line. Therefore, it intends to crush the Pashtuns of Waziristan, Swat, Buner, Dir, Kurram, and Oarkzai Agencies to cope with this situation through the Pakistan Army by throwing the bait of financial support, military aid and showing the way to power corridors to the Pakistani rulers, and it has been successful in its strategy so far.

Punjab Police Launches Anti-Drug Smuggling Drive

The positive outcome is likely to emerge from the green signal given by the Punjab Government to the police to start a drive to prevent smuggling of narcotics in the state. For a long time, Punjab has been the epicenter of narcotic products, especially heroin smuggling. Recently, the Border Security Force (BSF) recovered the biggest consignment of heroin which value in the international market is estimated at $27.5 million.

The contraband was pushed into Punjab from across the border and the same was to be sent to Delhi, Mumbai, and abroad. This process has been ongoing for a long time. Smugglers across the border have been transacting this trade in connivance with their counterparts on the Indian side.

It cannot be denied that this trade could not be made possible without collusion with the security forces and custom authorities on either side. Yet, nevertheless, the credit for recovering such a large consignment of heroin goes to the BSF personnel.

Impact on the Youth
The smuggling of narcotics obviously leaves a massive impact on the youth of Punjab. Not only do they fall victim to the adverse effect of the drug addition, they also play into the hands of smuggles. In order to meet the requirement of their drug addiction habit they get involved into smuggling activity being carried out by antisocial and unlawful elements.

In addition to heroin, other narcotic products are also used by the youth. There are certain areas of the state where the youth find themselves entrapped in the quagmire of drugs. Owing to this, not only the state's economy is being adversely affected but the progress of development projects also is being hampered.

It is not that steps have not been taken by the state administrative machinery to stem this trend. From time to time, steps have been taken toward this end at the social and administrative level, but no positive result has emerged so far.

Special Anti-Drug Addiction Campaign
Now that state Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh Badal has directed the Punjab Police chief to start a special anti-drug addiction campaign, it is to be hoped that some positive results would emerge in the near future. In 2007, a total of 111 kg heroin was seized.

In the current year, up to mid August, 125 kg heroin has been seized so far. A major part of this seizure is likely to be consumed by the youth in Punjab. Badal has underlined the need to secure the cooperation and coordination of the Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) so that the menace of drug addiction could be controlled in an effective manner.

Tight Security Needed
In addition to foreign smugglers and intelligence agencies, anti-social elements also must be behind this large-scale smuggling of narcotics from the long border with Pakistan. Given that a large number of youth in Punjab are suffering from drug addition, its fallout in the form of threat to the security of the Indian borders and regional integrity cannot be ruled out.

Hence, it has become imperative to beef up vigilance along the border along with endeavors to keep the young generation away from drug addiction, through the cooperation of NGOs at the social, religious, and political level.

Indian Black Money in Swiss Banks

Switzerland has refused to divulge information about the black money stashed away in Swiss banks by Indians. This has dealt a big blow to the campaign to bring back black money to India and rein in corruption. The dream of country's development has also been shattered.

Alleviating Country's Poverty
There is so much Indian black money stashed away in Swiss banks that the country's poverty could be alleviated in a day and we would not need to borrow money from any other country or institution. Switzerland has said that the laws there do not allow it to divulge information about bank deposits, but it is not true.

Under an agreement with the United States, it has given information about 4,450 secret accounts of its citizens to the United States. Switzerland does not want to destroy its banking business by giving such information to India.

This business of Switzerland is prospering only on black money. It has provided information about secret accounts to the United States because its bank UBS AG in the United States has been caught in a big financial crisis. In lieu of rescuing that bank from crisis, it has provided information to the United States about the secret accounts. India would, therefore, have to find a way to bring back the country's money stashed away in Swiss banks and to ensure that black money is not smuggled out of India. The country can also think about schemes like general tax amnesty for it, but it has been criticized a lot.

Surplus Money and Foreign Debts
Fifty-six percent of the black money stashed away in Swiss bank belongs to Indians. This amount is approximately $1,500 billion. If this money could be brought back to the country, we could pay off all our foreign debt within 24 hours. Not only that, the surplus money remaining after that would be 12 times more than the foreign debts.

Every year, nearly 80,000 Indians travel to Switzerland. Nearly 25,000 of them travel to that country quite regularly. It is obvious that these people are not tourists.

Attempts were made earlier also to bring the black money back to the country, but they were not very successful because those who have evaded taxes and stashed it away in Swiss banks could bring it back, but those who have earned it through corruption are not going to bring it back.

Nepal Prime Minister Visits India

The India-Nepal agreement signed last week in New Delhi is a matter of satisfaction for India because it indicates that the Madhav Kumar Nepal Government in Nepal desires to maintain cordial relations with India. The progress is specifically satisfactory from India's viewpoint that the Maoist Government headed by Prachanda, preceding the Kumar Government, was "anti-India," but "pro-China."

Prachanda, even before he took over as the Prime Minister of Nepal, during his prime ministership and even now when he is out of power, has made many statements that reflect his enmity toward India. Recently, for instance, he accused India that it wanted to attack China via Nepal.

Developing Bilateral Trade
However, the recent visit by the new Prime Minister of Nepal would reestablish the relations between the two countries and play a significant role in the development of trade ties. The new trade agreement would replace the old similar agreement signed in 1991.

The fresh agreement can easily be termed a significant initiative that would further enhance trade relations between the two countries. On the last day of the five-day official visit of Nepalese Prime Minister Kumar, two other agreements were also signed. In the joint statement released after the conclusion of the visit, India's concern on terrorism has appropriately been addressed. Nepal has assured India that it would not allow the use of its territory for carrying out any kind of terrorist activity against India. India also has extended similar assurance to Nepal.

Terrorism Issue
For some time past, Nepal is being used for anti-India activities. Reports continue to percolate that trained terrorists of various terrorist organizations, including Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) have been entering India via Nepal. Recently, our intelligence agencies have revealed that fake Indian currency comes to India through Nepal. Under these circumstances, it is a matter of great solace that the new Government in Nepal appears to be prepared not to allow any anti-India activity in its territory.

The old friendship treaty signed in 1950 has become somewhat disputed for the past some time. There are several sections that maintain an antitreaty viewpoint and oppose it. Kumar held discussion on this issue with his Indian counterpart Manmohan Singh. Both leaders have agreed, according to the joint statement, that the agreement would be reviewed at the secretary-level. As far as the new trade agreement is concerned, the two countries would keep a check on unauthorized trade, particularly by a third country. Undoubtedly, the agreement would go a long way in safeguarding the trade interests of both countries.

Cross border crimes are a matter of grave concern for both countries. The two countries maintain open borders, which is being used by antisocial elements to serve own interest. To prevent cross border crimes, the two countries have decided that home secretaries of the two countries would meet within two months to find out an effective instrument to stop such crimes and establish security on the borders. The decision to strengthen border administration and legal structure to resolve border disputes is a significant initiative.

Resolving Water Dispute
To resolve water disputes, the committee concerned has been directed to meet within two months. Both countries have also agreed to initiate effective measures to prevent breach of embankments of the river Kosi that plays havoc causing floods.

India has also agreed to extend cooperation in several major projects in Nepal. In a nutshell, it can be asserted that the visit by Kumar would further extend and expand areas of cooperation and mutual relations between the two countries.

Afghan Presidential Elections

The first round of Afghan presidential elections will prove to be a failure because none of the candidates will be able to get 50 per cent or more votes. Therefore, most probably, the Afghan president will be decided in the second round of the elections. The purpose of the presidential elections is to show the world community that, despite all odds, Afghanistan is progressing under American influence. Nevertheless, the majority of Afghans already know who their next president will be. They realize that American and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces have already decided the next Afghan President.

Voting will be held in 7,000 polling stations for more than three dozen candidates. For this purpose, the Afghan Election Commission has issued voting cards to more than fifteen million people so that they could cast their vote. For the very first time, American and NATO forces will perform security duties, under the supervision of the Afghan National Army, at polling stations and important roads. On the other hand, the Taliban are said to have prepared a plan to sabotage the presidential elections."

Taliban Factor
The Taliban have told the Afghan media that they will block all major roads in Southern and South-Eastern Afghanistan, with the added threat that they will carry out suicide attacks on polling stations and cut off the fingers of those who vote in the elections. According to the latest information, the Taliban have begun to implement their threats by blocking the main highways that link the Southern and South-Eastern provinces of Afghanistan. They have, also, blocked the main highway between Kabul and the southern province of Kandahar, as well as the main roads leading to Ghazni, Maidan, Wardag, Zabal, Logar, Khost, and Paktia.

The Taliban conduct a body-search of all people who travel on these roads. Despite the fact that it is the occasion of Afghan Independence, there is silence everywhere as people stay at home and keep off the streets. The people of the southern provinces have shown some enthusiasm during the election campaign compared to the capital Kabul and other areas, but they are also terribly scared of what might happen on election day.

Allied forces have made tremendous security arrangements to ensure that elections are held in a peaceful atmosphere. Snap checking and patrolling on the highways has been increased. It should be pointed out that direct elections for provincial councils are also being held along with the presidential elections. In addition to aerial patrolling, the election commission has hired seven thousand donkeys to deliver the ballot papers in hilly areas.

Focussing Urban Areas
According to the latest information, elections will be held in urban areas only, where Afghan and Allied forces can move swiftly. Conducting elections in rural Afghanistan is not possible where the Taliban occupy fifty percent of the area during the day and seventy five percent during the night. This fear was expressed by Afghan political and military authorities, as well as the international community.

The current elections are being organized by the Americans, who are paying all the expenses. America has also hired the services of ten thousand armed militia men, in addition to its own troops, for the purpose of holding the elections in a peaceful manner. This militia will perform the duties of securing the polling stations and the ballot boxes.

The Taliban could create problems for holding these elections. They have decided to sabotage the elections at all cost because they think that the elections are a means of providing a new life to foreign forces in Afghanistan. Although small anti-government militant groups in different parts of the country have announced a ceasefire during the election period, the overall situation remains grave. Many people are angry with the Afghan government and the allied countries for not allowing important opponents of the government, Gulbadin Hikmatyar of Hizb-e-Islami (Hikmatyar), and former jihadi Maulvi Jalaluddin Haqqani, to participate in the elections because they had opposed the presidential elections. People said that the government should have invited them both to participate in the elections.

In fact, America and the allied countries have allowed only those persons to participate in the elections who do not criticize America or the allied countries. The main contenders of the elections are former President Hamid Karzai, former Foreign Minister and nominee of the Northern Alliance, Dr Abdullah Abdullah, and former Finance Minister and ex Director of the World Bank, Dr Ashraf Ghani Ahmedzai. Hamid Karzai had full support of America and Britain when he was appointed Afghan President five years ago but, today he does not have the support of NATO countries. He has also failed to gain the support of the Afghan masses. He has maligned himself because of mass corruption in national institutions and, also, due to his involvement in drug smuggling run by his brothers.

During his five-year regime, the southern part of the country, which is mostly Pathan, was constantly targeted by Afghan and allied army operations. These operations also obstructed development programs in Southern and South-Eastern parts of Afghanistan. Karzai has selected two of his deputies for the present elections which has angered the majority of Pathan tribes. They include former head of the Afghan secret agency, KHAD, and former Defense Minister, and prominent leader of the Northern Alliance, General Qasim Fahim, and leader of the minority Hazara tribe, Mohammed Karim Khalili. To ensure his victory in the elections, Hamid Karzai has obtained the support of a prominent Northern Alliance leader and former Communist General, Abdur Rashid Dostam. Karzai allowed exiled Dostam to return to Afghanistan on condition of his support in the elections. It should be pointed out that a demand is being put forward for an investigation against General Dostam for killing thousands of unarmed Taliban towards the end of 2001.

Emerging Scenario
The position of Hamid Karzai is very weak because of all these factors. Moreover, his friend, General Pervez Musharraf, is also not present in Pakistan to support him. Pervez Musharraf had secured all the votes of the Afghan refugees based in Pakistan for Hamid Karzai during the previous elections."

According to political analysts, America does not trust Dr Abdullah Abdullah because he is a nominee of the Northern Alliance. He is well-connected with Iran, India and, especially, with Russia simultaneously, and is the common nominee of all parties included in the Northern Alliance. During the election campaign, he has threatened more than once that his supporters could become furious if he loses the presidential election, and that the law and order situation could further deteriorate. According to Dr Abdullah Abdullah, the elections could be massively rigged with the help of foreign powers, while his supporters would not tolerate these riggings.

According to most analysts on Afghanistan, America will arrange Hamid Karzai's defeat merely to shut Dr Abdullah Abdullah's mouth. This would pave the way for Dr Ashraf Ghani Ahmedzai's victory. Be as it may, the presidential elections will be completed in two phases since none of the candidates will be able to secure fifty percent or more votes in the first phase.

Growing Indiscipline in BJP

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) meet for introspection under way in Shimla has been paralyzed by concerns. Important issues such as "road ahead" and "move forward" have been overshadowed by certain concerns.

All efforts are being made to come out of the Jinnah episode, but no positive result is emerging. Since the results of the last general elections were not as expected, power has eluded the BJP.

Jaswant Singh's Book Controversy
The party convened the meeting in Shimla to introspect its election defeat and to decide the road ahead. Even before the meeting could begin, announcement was made to expel senior leader and former Union Minister Jaswant Singh over his book on Mohammad Ali Jinnah.

After that, senior party leaders and strategists got busy in rescuing L K Advani from the Jinnah controversy. Earlier, Advani had to give up party president post over the statement that he made about Jinnah in Pakistan.

New Front Opened
Jaswant Singh has opened a front with regard to his expulsion, which may make the party face new troubles. Party leaders are looking at Advani and Jaswant Singh from different perspectives on the Jinnah issue.

Accordingly, they are presenting their points of defense and attack on the issue. In reality, the BJP has strayed away from basic issues and has unnecessarily got embroiled on the Jinnah issue. Party leaders themselves are responsible for it.

Factionalism in Party
With growing indiscipline and factionalism in the party, ambitions of leaders have also increased considerably. Sidelining issues related to people's concerns, the party has got embroiled in useless issues that have nothing to do with the country or the people in the present context.

If the party is unable to control indiscipline and factionalism in it, the people would sideline the party and its dream of coming to power again would never be fulfilled.

There is not a single BJP leader who is acceptable to all. Atal Behari Vajpayee's personality was different. Everybody respected him. One should not hope for any positive outcome from the Shimla introspection meet.

Conflict has begun within the BJP with regard to the report presented in the meeting over the party's election defeat. The situation could become more serious in the coming days.

India Fails To Spell Out National Action Against Terror Plans

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's statement at the Chief Ministers' Conference that "Pakistani terrorist groups are on the look out for yet another attack on India and we should remain wary of it" has stunned even his supporters who welcomed the joint statement between him and his Pakistani counterpart Yousuf Raza Gilani at Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt. It is tantamount to a virtual "U-turn" from his (Singh)statement at Sharm el-Sheikh. He agreed to de-link the terrorism issue from the India-Pakistan dialogue process during his two-hour talk with Gilani. Then, Singh gave the clarification that Pakistan had assured India that it would not allow the use of its soil for any "anti-India" terrorist activity.

Opposition to PM's Statement
The Congress party leadership opposed Singh's statement. The party leadership was angry over it. Finally, the Prime Minister had to say in the Lok Sabha [Lower house of Parliament] that no shift has taken place in the firm Indian stand on the India-Pakistan talks.

Unless and until Pakistan punishes the perpetrators of the 26 November Mumbai attacks and dismantles the terror infrastructure within its country, talks cannot be held with it.

Lapless At Indo-Pak Talks
It would have been better if the Prime Minister simply observed the formality of mere handshaking and put off the talks at Sharm el-Sheikh just like Atal Behari Vajpayee had done with Musharraf in Kathmandu." The prime minister's talks with Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari tended to soften the Indian stand.

The other lapse that took place was that during the talks with Gilani at Sharm el-Sheikh, Singh relented to such a large extent that he failed to keep in view the diplomacy that Pakistan, under great Indian pressure, was anxious to prove itself innocent. After believing the assurances given by Gilani, Singh returned to the country. But Pakistan persisted with its mischief.

Indian Army Chief's Views
Indian Army Chief General Deepak Kapoor also stated recently that prior to the start of the winter season infiltration attempts by militants have surged. The Pakistani military in these attempts cannot be ruled out. Pakistan does not favor that peace should prevail in Jammu and Kashmir for a long time and hence a spurt has taken place in the infiltration from across the border. Defense Minister A.K. Antony also said that a large number of terrorist training camps were being run in the Pakistani territory. Moreover, incidents of infiltration and pushing arms into Jammu and Kashmir registered a substantial rise during the past four days. This is amply evident from the incidents given below.

August 15: The Border Security Force [BSF] arrested four Pakistanis making a bid to infiltrate near the Tapu checkpoint of Khemkaran and recovered from them four pistols, arms and ammunition, night vision devices, and two kg heroin.

August 16: The security forces foiled the attempts made by militants to cross the Line of Control by cutting the barbed fencing in the "Chakhan da Bagh" area of the Ranigarh section of Poonch.

August 16: In an encounter between the police and the Lashkar-e Taiyiba in the Pulwama sector, one terrorist, John Muhammad, was killed.

August 17: In the Rajouri sector, security forces killed self-styled Hizbul Mujahidin commander Altaf Husayn. It also recovered 20 kg RDX in the Gambhir Mughal forests.

August 17: In the Sir Creek sector of Katch, the BSF arrested nine Pakistani infiltrators near the Akri Moti power plant.

August 18: In the Poonch sector, security forces seized 10 grenades, one carbine, and four pistols.

There are also news reports that the Lashkar-e-Taiyiba is once again trying to start a November 26 type attack from Jafarabad. The Pakistani Government is not taking any action against the main conspirator of the Mumbai attacks, Hafiz Sayeed yet.

Congress Dissatisfaction
The truth is the Congress party was not satisfied with the joint statement at Sharm el-Sheikh. Non-incorporation of Kashmir in the joint statement was being put up as India's achievement. But, harping on the Kashmir issue, Pakistan has started saying that Kashmir is such an issue without which resolution mutual differences of the two nations cannot be sorted out. In such a state of affairs the prime minister, in order to satisfy his partymen, had to mention at the chief minister's meet the possibility of a fresh Pakistani terrorist attack on India.

We reiterate that though the prime minister has made the point of a fresh Pakistani terrorist attack, he has not stated what action India will take in reply. There is also the need to think that fake currency notes, drugs, arms, etc. are often seized in train and bus services between the countries. It should be seen whether due to these services the country is being caused more damage than gain.

Resolving Kashmir Issue

At the meeting held on August 17 in New Delhi on the internal security issue, Kashmir issue took precedence over all other issues. The meeting was attended by chief ministers of difference states in the country. In his address to the conference, the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh threw light on the current situation in Kashmir.

The Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir Omar Abdullah said that although incidents of militancy have come down the infiltration from across the border still continues. He disclosed that terrorists in Pakistan are awaiting an opportune moment to attack India yet again.

Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act
Omar Abdullah also addressed the conference and demanded repeal of the Armed Forces [Special Powers] Act (AFSP), in Kashmir because the situation in the state is getting normal gradually. He also demanded filling of vacancies caused by withdrawal of Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) battalions from Kashmir, so that there is no security lapse in maintaining the rule of law.

On 15 August, the chief minister had specifically emphasized in his speech at the Bakshi Stadium that he would approach the Union Government to get the AFSP Act revoked and also attempt to impress the Union Government to reduce the strength of the Armed Forces deployed in the state. The Chief Minister had already assured that the responsibility of internal security would be handed over to the state police.

If five battalions of the CRPF have been withdrawn, their place can easily be handed over to the state police. He also stressed the need to encourage trade across the border. He specifically pointed out that the barter system has not proved effective and traders do not like to follow the barter system. Some traders have withdrawn themselves from trading.

It is for the Union Government to implement the demands raised by Omar Abdullah who attended the conference as an ambassador of Kashmir. The Chief Minister also drew attention to a very important issue. He informed that a large number of Kashmiris are returning on Pakistan's Passport via Nepal. He termed it an extremely dangerous issue and stressed the need of immediate attention.

Improving Situation
Earlier, the Prime Minister Singh said that the Amarnath Yatra ended peacefully in the state and there was no issue of law and order, nor any attack took place. He termed it adherence to the secular traditions of the people of Kashmir.

The Prime Minister said that although the situation has improved in Kashmir, yet the increase in infiltration is a matter of concern because infiltrators are hardcore militants who are heavily armed. He added that some people have been trying to blow stray incidents like that of Shopian, Baramullah, and Spore out of proportion to create internal dissension.

Earlier addressing the nation from the ramparts of the Red Fort, the Prime Minister had described the role of separatist unnecessary. Going by the situation, it appears that the Kashmir issue has been placed on the back burner, yet again. The Government is only worried about maintenance of law and order and is gravely anxious about when militancy would come to an end.

Sri Lankan Government Faces Defeat at Recent Northern Polls

Elections and democracy are two major components that are interlinked. However, there is a sensible debate in political circles today on whether the series of elections being held one after another in Sri Lanka, would at all help stabilize democracy in the country or would it turn other way round.

Government's Thinking
Some sections believe that there is an ulterior motive behind holding elections in Southern Sri Lanka. This agenda is apparently based on the Government's thinking that it can win any election at any given time.

The Government could well have conducted the elections on a single day as was done in the past instead of holding them at different times. Apparently the Government is wary of doing so as it fears such an all out election throughout the country would only damage its future political interests.

Southern Provincial Council Election was announced while the Uva Provincial Council election campaign was on. That rushed announcement calling for elections to the Southern Provincial council clearly disclosed the Government's electoral game plan.

Defeats in Consecutive Elections
When this Government assumed power in 2005, the main opposition United National Party [UNP] led by Ranil Wickremesinghe had suffered a series of defeats in consecutive elections and it was practically devastated.

The distraught state of affairs in the vanquished UNP naturally caused dissension and splits within the party. It could not stand united any more to encounter any of the elections that were thrown its way.

The defeats thus suffered by the UNP were a source of encouragement to the Government to hold the elections in phases hoping to further exploiting the situation.

As things stand now it appears that the UNP will not be able to win in any future elections held in the country. One factor that could lead to this sorry state is many members of the UNP regard their leader as their main adversary, but do not view their arch political opponent-the ruling alliance-as their real foe.

In this scenario it is really not a surprise to witness that numerous members within the party only long for the defeat of the party rather than its victory.

It is anybody's guess that the Government would deal its final blow to the UNP either at the forthcoming presidential or the general election or both. This is why there is no speculation at all in political circles today on the outcome of the elections, except for talk about the size of the victory.

However, there is speculation whether the Government would be able to secure the much desired two thirds majority at the parliamentary elections. This absolutely confident mindset of the Government victory across the country has been the result of the series of elections that were recently held in southern Sri Lanka. But we certainly say that it was not in an identical political backdrop, the elections in the North too were hastily conducted.

At the time when the elections were conducted in the North and even after conclusion of those elections queries from several sources were raised relating to the period in which those two elections were conducted.

It was argued that it was not proper to hold elections no sooner the war was concluded. Even we had pointed out in this column earlier that it was a faulty decision to conduct the elections in the North before normalcy returned to the district.

Attention on Humanitarian Issues
We reiterated that when the people focused their attention on humanitarian issues they were least worried of casting their votes. However, the Government was keen in conducting the elections somehow or other. The Government would have conducted the elections under two circumstances.

The Government would have thought that elections would be a driving force in establishing normalcy in the North as soon as the war was completed. Further, successful completion of elections would help the Government to claim that Tamils are no more inclined to nationalist sentiments but are concerned of revival of democratic way of life and restoration of normalcy.

The next reason was to feel the pulse of the Northern voters as to how they will vote in the event of the next Presidential Election, because the Presidential Election embraces the entire country.

The votes which could be amassed in Southern Sri Lanka are adequate to achieve a victory in the Presidential Election but not sufficient for a landslide victory which the Government hopes to reap. Especially, if Tamils cast their votes to the presidential candidate of the opposition party certainly it will pose a negative impact. Hence, the Government sought to assess the thinking of the Tamil electorates prior to fixing a date for the Presidential Election. Probably this was another reason that contributed for the elections conducted in haste in the North.

Shocking Message to Government
The pattern of voting conveyed a shocking message to the Government. A mere 18 percent of the voters cast their votes in the Jaffna Municipal Council election. When compared to the voter turn out in Jaffna's electoral history, this percentage of voting is most disturbing. Although it is stated that the southern electorates are tired of frequent elections more than 60 percent of the voters cast their votes in Uva.

We cannot still understand the genuine reason for such low turn out of voters in the North. Independent media was not permitted to cover these elections. As such we are only compelled to arrive at certain conclusions. Three reasons could be attributed to the decline in voting.

The register of voters in the Jaffna Municipal limits would not have been properly maintained. Secondly, it could have been the mass migration of voters during the period of war. A large number of people were killed. Registration of voters would not have been properly done during the period when the war continued.

People of Jaffna would not have displayed interest in the election. The reasons such as the losses they incurred during the war, necessity to liberate their relatives detained in camps and their anxiety to move out to places of their choice would have diverted their anxiety to vote.

Finally majority of the voters would have not voted to demonstrate their opposition to the Government regarding the way the war was concluded and the delay experienced in achieving a political solution to their long standing problem. This could be definitely considered to be the message of Tamil nationalism. If they had not been aggrieved by such sentiments, they would have voted at the election in large numbers, well wishing for the much hyped development projects in the North.

The voters' message coming from the Tamil regions signifying Tamil nationalism may not be lost on the Tamil National Alliance since it is the only political party that is there to stand up and be counted in raising its voice for the sake of the rights and aspirations of the Tamil community in the current political set up of the country.

Assessment
In other words, the northern election results seem to have definitely disappointed the Government. The town council election result in Vavuniya has not brought desirable results to the ruling party crashing its surmises and hopes. The low percentage of votes the Government party secured has practically negated the victory it obtained there.

These election results aptly show the level of the Government's popularity at national level. It is crystal clear that the Government has failed to garner support in the North which it could amass in the South. It could have a noteworthy effect on the Government's dreams and aspirations in the elections conducted at national level.

If the Presidential Election is conducted in the current backdrop, the Tamil votes will definitely be an impediment to the winning chance of the Government.

ASEAN Flexes Muscles To Free All Myanmar Political Prisoners

The Myanmar court has commuted by half the penalty for Aung San Suu Kyi, the Myanmar democratic icon and former leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD). The verdict on August 11, 2009 sentenced Aung San Suu Kyi to three years in prison on the charge of violating the internal security law. The court has recently commuted it to one-and-a-half year, or 18 months, and changed the detention method from imprisonment to house arrest. For John Yettaw, an American who swam to Suu Kyi's residence, the court handed him a seven-year imprisonment for three charges. The court gave him three-year imprisonment for violating internal security law, another three years for illegal entry into Myanmar, and another one year for swimming in a place where swimming is prohibited. What have happened is a challenge for The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that is a group of countries in Southeast Asia. It tested ASEAN whether it has enough potential to convince Myanmar to restore solidarity among its people.

ASEAN Views on Court's Ruling
It is pleasing that two days after the court sentenced Suu Kyi and a 58-year-old American who swam across a lake to see Suu Kyi, on the late morning of the 12th of August, Thailand on the capacity of ASEAN chairman has issued a statement expressing disappointment over the Myanmar court's verdict. The statement also cites the demand of ASEAN foreign ministers that attended the 42nd ASEAN Ministerial Meeting (AMM) and the 16th ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in July 2009 in Phuket province that the Myanmar Government should immediately release all political prisoners, including Suu Kyi, so that those people could take part in the 2010 general elections.

The determined stance of Thailand under the leadership of the Aphisit Wetchachiwa government was a consequence of the fact that the foreign ministries of several countries in ASEAN and in Europe and the United States have expressed dissatisfaction about the unfairly tough penalties handed down to Suu Kyi and the American man by the Myanmar court and military junta. For this reason, the Aphisit government should consult leaders of other ASEAN countries on further actions that the organization should take to pressure the Myanmar military junta to abide by the ASEAN statement, by immediately releasing Suu Kyi and other political prisoners. Then, those people would be able to run in the 2010 general elections.

Throughout the past several years, Myanmar has been a country ruled by an absolute military dictatorship that limits people's rights and liberty. Politicians who were on the opposite side of those in power, and people who disagreed with the government have been killed, arrested and detained and tortured with several methods, particularly Suu Kyi has been held under house arrest.

Sanction Against Myanmar
Although the United States and European countries have imposed economic sanction against Myanmar to pressure the Myanmar junta to release and free Suu Kyi and restore democracy in Myanmar, the sanction has not influenced the Myanmar military junta to adjust its authoritarian policy implementation.

There have been crackdowns against those dissenting the Myanmar junta. The foreign media have been barred from covering the situation in Myanmar. One reason is that certain powerful countries in Asia have supported Myanmar. Another reason is that ASEAN, in which Myanmar is a member, dares not to do anything for fear that Myanmar would be dissatisfied if ASEAN meddled with its internal politics.

Action Against Myanmar Military Junta
It is time now to take serious action against the Myanmar military junta. ASEAN has 10 member countries that are Thailand, Vietnam, Lao, Cambodia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, and Myanmar.

Although nine other countries (except Myanmar) has never handed the Myanmar junta an ultimatum, but from the fact that Thailand on the capacity of ASEAN chairman has issued the official statement based on its goodwill toward Myanmar people and the wish to see peace in Myanmar and to see the progress in national development that is a cooperation between member countries of ASEAN -- that would become ASEAN Union in the next six years, this should be the time for the beginning of a push to make the Myanmar military junta return freedom to Aung San Suu Kyi and let her prove herself in a free and fare general election next year. If such a push could be done, Thailand and ASEAN would win praise from the international community.

Sikh Groups Protest Continues in Frankfurt

Sikh religious organizations in Germany observed the Indian Independence Day on 15 August as a day of "betrayal and black day" for Sikhs by holding a massive protest demonstration in front of the Indian Consulate in Frankfurt.

The organizations included the Amritsar Shiromani Akali Dal, the Sikh Federation, the Babbar Khalsa Germany, the Sikh Youth Federation, the International Babbar Khalsa, and the Dal Khalsa.

Achievement of Freedom
Speaking on the occasion, leaders of the organizations recalled that for the attainment of India's independence, Sikhs made the maximum number of sacrifices by going to gallows. They cheerfully suffered huge loss of life and property and imprisonment in foreign hands.

But, after the achievement of freedom, Delhi rulers backed out of their promise to carve out an autonomous region for the community.

Struggle of Sikhs
Speakers vehemently stressed that the freedom struggle of Sikhs still continues. Minorities, including Sikhs, are being persecuted. During the course of the speeches, slogans such as, "Long live Sant Jarnail Singh Bindrawala," "We will not rest until the formation of Khalistan," etc. rented the air frequently.

The speakers were Bhai Gurdayal Singh, Jathedar Rasham Singh of the Babbar Khalsa Germany, Bhai Amritsar Shiromani Akali Dal chief Jagtar Singh Mahal, Sikh Federation chief Bhai Gurdayal Singh Khanian, senior Sikh Youth Federation leader Bhai Lakhwinder Singh Malli, Jathedar Satnam Singh Babbar, chief Sevadar, Gurdwara Sri Gur Dasmesh Singh Jebha, Bhai Manjit Singh Sohal of the International Babbar Khalsa, Bhai Amarinder Singh Mangupur of the Sikh Federation, Bhai Narinder Singh, former president, Bhai Gurwinder Singh Goldi, Bhai Gurbachan Singh Goraya, and Bhai Jitender Singh of the Sikh Federation, and Bhai Surjit Singh Mahal, Bhai Balwinder Singh (Munikh), Bhai Harminderpal Singh, and Bhai Kanwal Singh.