Bangladesh Rejects Indian Proposal for Exporting Natural Gas

Bangladesh has turned down an Indian proposal for exporting natural gas to that country. Indian Power Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde placed the proposal on 15 September 2011 during his visit to Dhaka to join a meeting of the (South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) energy ministers. Dhaka did not respond positively to the proposal.
Growing Problems
In this regard, State Minister for Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Mohammad Enamul Haque said Bangladesh was unable to export gas at this moment because of deficit of the energy in the country. At a news conferee on the evening of 15 September 2011 the state minister said Bangladesh will export gas to foreign countries in future subject to availability of the energy.
It has been learnt that the two countries a meeting discussed 250-MW electricity from India. In this regard, the sate minister electricity from India could be received from India in due course of time as per the commitment of New Delhi. He said the media report published on the complexities regarding construction of joint gridline between Bangladesh and India was not completely right. But he admitted that some problems were created over acquiring lands for the gridline at a number of places in the Indian state of West Bengal. He said that Bangladesh had the similar problem.
At this moment Power Secretary Abul Kalam Azad said electricity from India could be availed from in India on time. He said the problem created in the West Bengal will not hamper the project. Because, a minor section of the gridline will be required to be built on the India side while rest was in existence from earlier.
SAARC Energy Ministers’ Meeting
Moreover, the two-day meeting of the SAARC energy ministers ended at Rupashi Bangla Hotel in Dhaka on the same day through the concluding ceremony. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina chaired the concluding session. Power ministers from five countries and 35 represetatives attended the meeting.
The SAARC member countries at the meeting reached a consensus on singing power deals among the countries. In addition, the meeting adopted a survey on attaining energy security in the South Asia.
Presenting the detailed outcome of the meeting at a news conference in the evening, Power, Energy and Mineral Resources State Minister Mohammad Enamul Haque said the SAARC countries will sing a power exchange agreement within the next year (2012). The meeting decided to elicit opinion on the draft agreement until 31 October 2011.
Regional and Energy Trade Survey
He further said the meeting adopted the SAARC Regional and Energy Trade Survey. The survey recommended guidelines on production and trade in the power and energy sector of the SAARC countries. An analysis of the survey shows that the committee of experts has stressed the need for signing a framework agreement for enhancing capacity in the power and energy sector of the SAARC countries.
The experts believe such a framework agreement will benefit every member state. They also put emphasis on regional trade and legal compulsion.
Energy Security System
The survey shows the yearly demand for fuel oil by the SAARC member countries is increasing by 5 percent while for gas by 6.34 percent. The per hour demand for electricity the SAARC countries by 2020 will increase to 2920693 KW.
A source with the meeting said the member countries are in a state worry over the present quantity fuel for power generation. And as a result, they put stress on building an energy security system through mutual cooperation.
According to the survey, the Maldives is ahead of all the member countries in the commercial use of energy. The next positions go to India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Afghanistan at the last.
The survey report says the SAARC countries have their peculiarities in the use of energy. But India and Pakistan are dependent on more than one source of energy. The rest countries have unilateral source. The survey stressed the need for diversifying the use of energy in those countries.
The state minister at the press conference said the SAARC countries at the meeting agreed to carryout survey on inter-grid power exchange. Besides, Bangladesh at the meeting placed a proposal for forming a SAARC Energy Regulatory Commission.

Libya's Future After Gadhafi's Downfall

When I turned on my computer in the morning and clicked into the website of Reuters, the big headline reads: ‘Rebels enter Tripoli, crowds celebrate’. Beneath the headline was a picture of a rebel sitting at the windowsill of a car -- he stretched half of his body out of the window and raised his arms high up to cheer.
Continuing Civil War
Libya has plunged into a civil war for more than six months following the eruption of the reform wave in Middle East early this year. The civil war has finally come to an end?
Finally, the winner emerges between the Libyan revolutionaries backed by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the force loyal to Colonel Muammar Gaddafi after a half-year tough fight. But I have put a question mark there because this only marks the end of a civil war. Another or more civil wars are brewing, or we may say that it has actually already started.
Libya is a country. But more accurately, it is actually a tribal society. There are altogether about 2,000 small and big tribes in Libya. Strictly speaking, Libyan people are actually loyal to their own tribes. In Libya, a country with such special attribute, the people identify themselves more with their tribes than with the country.
Suppressive and High-Handed Approach
In the past 42 years, Gaddafi had ruled Libya using suppressive and high-handed approach. In the eyes of democratic European and North American countries, Gaddafi is beyond doubt a dictator. But in a typical tribal society that practices the rule of the jungle, it is an absolute daydream if we hope the nation would elect an Obama in accordance with the standard of the West.
From the perspective of the outsiders, the Libyan people are now liberated and Libya is now reborn. But what actually happens in the country now is that a civil war within a civil war is boiling up and may break out at any moment.
There may be a reign of terror among the Libyan tribes now. The war between tribes may be brewing and poised to erupt. What follow will be fighting back, revenge, and power struggle.
Gaddafi already fell. But his followers and the Gadhafa tribe which has been loyal to him would not just await their doom. They would definitely fight back and take revenge.
At the same time, the opposition is similarly factional. In late July this year, Major General Abdul Fatah Younis -- former interior minister in Gaddafi's regime who subsequently defected to the rebels and became the chief commander of the revolutionaries -- was killed in an ambush. What the transitional government claimed when announcing his death was contradictory, making some to suspect if Major General Abdul Fatah Younis was assassinated by ‘his own men’. His death also revealed the internal contradiction in the opposition camp.
Challenges Faced by Transitional Government
Meanwhile, the transitional government is also facing tricky and tough issues like the distribution of interests and power after it takes over the ruling power; the post-war reconstruction of Libya, and putting the chaotic society back to order.
NATO, which is led by the West, had deployed their troops to Libya in the name of democratizing Libya. Now, as the Libyan tyrant Gaddafi is coming close to his ‘last breath’, is Libya advancing towards democracy?
Let us take a look at Iraq and Afghanistan. Commotion and social disorder have prevailed after the two nations overthrew their dictators. In a Third World country in transition, democracy is still a luxurious gift.

One Year of Obama Administration

On 20 January, Barrack Obama would have sworn in as the US President for a whole year. The gains and loses of President Obama during his first White House year were full of different opinions. Some people think that President Obama has basically done what he was aspired to do when he first came to power with the vision to change the US society, revitalize the US economy, promote the health care reform, reconstruct the US international image, and so on. However, there are also people holding different opinions about him. They felt that the glory of his "stardom" has faded, the US economy is still struggling at the bottom, the financial industry and the automotive industry still crumbling, and the unemployment rate is still close to two digits. Nevertheless, President Obama has given himself a performance rating of B plus, a rating that is between B and A.

Major Achievement of President Obama During First Year in Office
When people look back at President Obama's achievement during the past year, many people's feeling about President Obama was similar to the feeling about him when he was awarded the Nobel Peace prize. They have overwhelming doubt in their mind. They felt Obama was granted the Nobel Peace prize when they still could not see any great peace achievement done by President Obama. This is an unfair and unbalanced comment on Obama. This is because during the past one year, President Obama did help the United States make changes in world affairs, although these changes were a far cry from many people's expectations.
For example, in international political arena, the US relationship with Muslim countries such as Turkey, Iran and other nations, including Russia, Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea, and other countries have shown signs of improvement. During the past one year, the pace of President Obama's overseas trip across Latin America, Africa, Europe, and Asia did permeate "multilateralism," "flexible diplomacy" and "pragmatic" approach of the Obama administration's foreign policy. Within the first year of Obama administration, the US President has fully abandoned former US President George W. Bush's unilateral diplomacy. He has allowed the United States to begin the long march to rebuild the US image in many Muslim countries. On US-China diplomacy, President Obama has walked an extra mile than Bush in trying to reduce Beijing's traditional dissatisfaction factors toward the United States' criticism on its human rights records, armed race, and other issues. In the process, President Obama tried to pave a larger diplomatic space with China to enter into a win-win strategic relationship of mutual trust.
Because of President Obama's effort, the US prestige in the world has also gradually climbed up from the valley and moved upward. In June 2009, a public opinion poll announced that based on a study in 22 countries, the poll result has indicated that since Barrack Obama became the US President, the US image abroad has boosted up to a 6 percent point and that 42 percent of the people overseas said that they had a good impression of the United States. In June the same year, another survey done overseas in 24 countries also indicated that many countries held positive view of the United States. Such positive view about the United States has almost returned to former US President Clinton's era.

Domestic Support Rate for Obama Fades in 2009
On domestic economy, President Obama managed to persuade the US Congress to approve the $787 billion economic stimulus package. This financial budget was mainly used for the expansion of domestic infrastructure. The effect of this economic stimulus was significant. At the same time, President Obama also made use of the relief budget of $350 billion approved during the Bush administration as relief fund for the three major automobile manufacturers in order to stabilize the US automobile industry. After going through four consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, the US Department of Commerce has recently reported that from July to September 2009, the US economy has rebounded to a growth of 3.5 percent.
In addition, President Obama also made every effort to promote universal health care reform for all citizens. After a whole year of intense debate with the US Congress, President Obama's health care reform bill was finally gone through the US House and Senate. It has always been the dream of few generations of past presidents to push forward some kind of health care reform plan for people. President Obama has fulfilled this health care reform dream during his term as the president.
However, there were also some citizens whose confidence and support rate of President Obama have dropped drastically. They could not conceal their disappointment toward President Obama because many of his campaign promises have not been fulfilled. These people lost their confidence in Obama not because of economic or unemployment issue but because they felt Obama did not done a good job in the elimination of divide and difference between different political parties. Survey has shown that the success rate of Obama in trying to mend the political rift has dropped to 28 percent as compared to the 54 percent that he achieved a year ago. However, in the United States, the support rate for a US President is considered by the US people as the barometer for the public to gauge the performance of the US president and for him to gain public recognition. The opinion poll has already shown that the support rate for President Obama has fallen below the half way mark and it was clear that the prestige and image of President Obama has gone done substantially in the eyes of his domestic audience.
Some US citizens also felt Obama was a weak US President. They said that when making major decision, Obama has reflected hesitation. On budget expenditure and taxation, they said President Obama has done them in great hurry without giving details consideration.
There were also people who criticized President Obama's world peace effort. They said Obma has said many things and has paid great effort to do the peace work but the result has been ineffective. For example, although the Obama administration did try hard to mediate lasting peace between Palestine and Israel, but Palestinian-Israeli relations remain stalled. Although President Obama has actively promoted the concept of a nuclear-free world, but the number of "quasi-nuclear state" has not decreased but has increased. Although President Obama advocated the abolishment of the term "counterterrorism war," but the US troop withdrawal plan from Iraq has been delayed in implementation. On Afghanistan war front, the eight-year war in Afghanistan ended up having the United States to continue adding more troops to Afghanistan. On Russia, although President Obama managed to broker and discuss a new nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia by taking the initiative to stop the construction of antimissile bases in Eastern Europe, however, people do not see any significant progress on his effort or observe significant change in US-Russian relations. On the North Korea nuclear weapon issue, the international community does not see a breakthrough and any sign that the Six-Party Nuclear Weapon Negotiation Talks with North Korea will soon reassume. On the US relationship with Iran, President Obama did try to use "badminton diplomacy" for the Iranian authority to release the US woman journalist. However, in dealing with the most crucial Iran's nuclear fuel issue, both parties remain at an intransigent stage.
At this moment, we hear overwhelming waves of criticism and doubt flocking into the White House. They said that Obama did not end the war. They said that Obama did not close the Guantanamo Bay. They said that Obama did not let all citizens to have access to health care. They said that Obama did not reduce the high unemployment rate. They said that Obama did not provide health care access to all. They said Obama did not manage to reduce the high federal budget deficits. There are many criticism about President Obama. Different criticism just comes out one after another. This has led to the mainstream US media to lament that perhaps these are indeed the deep cries of the US people. To the US media, they seem to conclude that "in the past one year, the greatest achievement of President Obama was to kick George W. Bush out from the White House."
In response to all these external criticism, President Obama's response was to call the US people to be "patience." In fact, to be fair, any reform a new government tries to take will surely face resistance from all sides. Moreover, President Obama is but a novice President on the road for reform. When Obama's reform plan coincided with the US financial crisis, many blood warming presidential campaign slogans President Obama promised his supporters that he would do after becoming the US President eventually were not many. However, it is unfair to say that President Obama was only putting up a "political show" during presidential campaign time. On contrary, we feel that all along, President Obama still put in effort trying to fulfill his commitments to the voters.

Greater Challenges Ahead for President Obama in '10
After ruling the country for one year, President Obama's real test has just begun. In 2010, there are three most critical challenges President Obama must face. First, it is the high unemployment rate. This is the most urgent and most difficult economic problem for any US Government to handle. The White House National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers admitted that improving employment opportunities for workers should be the Obama administration's top priority in 2010. Second, the United States has an astronomical figure on the federal budget deficit. In 2009, the most serious economic recession since the Great Depression has led to sharp drop in US revenue. While the US Government's expenditure on providing unemployment insurance and other social security schemes are soaring, the US federal budget deficit has also turned record high. We believe how President Obama can reduce the fiscal deficit should be another major challenge faced by the Obama government in this New Year. Third, the United States continues to face the consequence of the two wars in Afghanistan and in Iraq. The Afghanistan war launched by the former Bush administration has turned into the "Obama's war." In many people's view, the war in Afghanistan has developed more and more like another kind of Vietnam War the United States has to shoulder. However, for the Afghanistan war the United States is facing now, there is no indication that the United States can win the same. Instead, there is indication to show that the United States might likely to be dragged into a muddy situation that can be difficult for the country to pull out.
The aforementioned three critical challenges faced by President Obama will determine the success or failure of President Obama's "New Deal" as well as the entire success of President Obama's full term as the US President. However, all these three critical challenges have a lot of variables. The situational development of any one of them may be far beyond President Obama's scope as US President to control. Fortunately, President Obama has reacted such challenges with a clear mind. For instance, on economic issues, he repeatedly warned that the United States still faces a series of tough challenges. He also warned that economic and complete recovery is still long way off for the United States. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has also said that although a sharp decline in the US economy in the coming days is unlikely, but the United States should not rule out the possibility that a "double-dip" economic recession could also happen. Many economic experts also believe that it might take five to six years for the US economy to return to a healthy level.
On the problem of unemployment issue, in a recent interview, President Obama said: "We cannot be unconcerned or be complacent. The unemployment rate in the United States is still exceedingly high." In addressing the unemployment problem, the Obama government has announced an economic package to promote employment rate for the workers.
On the Afghanistan war issue, President Obama also faces similar challenge. In general, most people believe that 2010 will be the year for the United States to "surge US troop presence" in Afghanistan. President Obama must try to seek significant military progress in Afghanistan within a short period. Then, he can send the entire US troops home after 18 months as planned. In other words, President Obama has already set a target that before the end of his first term as US President he must withdraw most of the US troops from Afghanistan. Otherwise, his effort to seek reelection as a second term president might come to naught.

Whither Obama Promises to Islamic World?

That night of 20 January was the night to dream with open eyes, when the son of a black Muslim was seen in the historical function to take oath as the 44th President of the United States. That moment for the black US people was the realization of their dreams. However, the black and Muslim people of the entire world started having a new dream from that day. That dream was about good United States.
Now a question mark is being observed on the performance of Barack Obama after eight months and it is not asking from a single individual, rather from the history as to "what happened to that dream?" That dream, which faded out as soon as it was dreamt. Now ash of that dream is flying hither and thither in the shape of speeches on the global stage and its script writer is the US establishment.

Freedom of Palestine
Intellectuals of the world agreed on it that Obama would do nothing. However, there was a hope that the United States would correct its mistakes in the shape of Obama and would let the world win peace and freedom without which the word "civilization" is meaningless. However, the violence gripped this world after the break up of the Soviet Union and disintegration of the socialist block.
The nations of the world, which sacrificed three or four generations for freedom, their goal of freedom seemed a mirage to them. What is the answer the United States of Obama to this question as "what has happened to the freedom of Palestine?" Now Palestinians are not launching suicide attacks on the Jews and they are no more hijacking aircrafts. Why are they still under barbaric besiege of Israel?

Occupation of Iraq and Withdrawal from Afghanistan
The United States had a great opportunity in the shape of Obama to seek apology for the occupation of Iraq and to withdraw from Afghanistan. If it had sought guarantees from Islamic countries to do this, it would have obtained. However, it wasted the opportunity. Now the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan would be nothing more than a retreat. The reason is that it has been decided that the United States cannot stay in Afghanistan for long. It has to leave it. It would have been a lot better, if it had left it with honor.
As far as the prosperity of the world is concerned, people are leading life worse than before. All books of the capitalist world have turned into a heap of garbage, which described that the world once out of the threat of communism would become a paradise. Now communism is no more a threat. However, the world has become worse than before. Promises the United States pledged to the international community and the countries standing by it against the Soviet Union have not been honored. Pakistan is a sorrowful example of those broken promises. India supported the Soviet Union during the Cold War era. It did not support NATO countries. India did not support the United States or its allies from Afghanistan to Africa.

Bonhomie with India
However, the United States started bonhomie with India after the elimination of the Soviet Union and pushed Pakistan aside. India conducted nuclear tests and Pakistan paid it back in the same coin. However, both were subjected to sanctions. Then this shameful discrimination was exercised that the United States signed nuclear pact with India and announced that Pakistan should not expect such pacts. The United States used to request Pakistan for help during the Cold War era.
However, it started issuing aggressive threats in order to use Pakistan for its interests after the Cold War was over. Pakistan was subjected to discriminatory treatment regarding nuclear cooperation when Pakistan was either killing its friends of cold war era or it was handing them over to the United States, although they did not pose any threat to Pakistan. However, those best friends of Pakistan turned into the worst enemies because of the United States. Pakistan now stands alone in the war on terror, in which it was forcibly pushed into by the United States.
The United States is violating the sanctity of the Pakistani frontiers with its drone spy planes and the Indian intelligence agency, Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) has set up a large network in Afghanistan because of the United States. It has launched every kind of activities against Pakistan under the cover of aid to Afghanistan. The United States knows all this. Now its allies are also acknowledging this fact that India is using Afghan soil against Pakistan. However, the United States is calmly looking at this drama and doing nothing in this regard. If it is doing something, it is adding insult to Pakistan's injuries and that too with the US brand name. How is the United States playing its role in this regard?
The United States should realize this that the history of world does not stop. However, it happens that its pace is decreased through force, but its total stoppage is impossible. The anger against the United States is mounting and if the countries of the world do not form a front against the United States, people of the world could gather on a platform against the United States. The history is changed through the public role. If the countries of world do not devise policies to reflect the aspirations of the concerned public, the common people would come forward to play its role and the world would enter into a good and new era. The establishment of the world makes people subjugate the common people through technology. It exploits them.
However, the common people use the same technology to benefit them and the world establishment is rather flabbergasted over it. Now the anger in the entire world is emerging against the United States in a new way. The public realized the United States would change with the arrival of Obama. However, the common people are feeling sorry over its simplicity and innocence, which is transforming into revenge. The people of the world are feeling humiliated. A fire of revenge is burning in their hearts against the United States. The United States should fear this fire. It is the fire of the public, which has the courage and ability to change the history.
It is being proved from the recent statements of President Obama that white Bush is speaking in the guise of black president. He is still presenting Pakistan as Al-Qa'ida sanctuary. The United States is increasing the number of its troops in Afghanistan along with the number of drones that strikes missiles on the Pakistani borders. This drama is being staged during the government about which the US stand is that "We are strengthening democracy in the world."

Drone Attacks in Pakistan
Will drone attacks strengthen democracy in Pakistan? The difference between the United States of Obama and the United States of Bush, which emerged in the minds of people of the world ends when the dictator of the same (Pakistan) country visits the United States like a royal guest and holds political talks with George W. Bush.
The people of world would soon be disappointed from the change, which they attached to that US realization declaring Obama continuance of Bush. The important question in this regard is: Will the United States be able to bear the reaction of the disappointment of the people of the world?

Afghan Presidential Elections

The first round of Afghan presidential elections will prove to be a failure because none of the candidates will be able to get 50 per cent or more votes. Therefore, most probably, the Afghan president will be decided in the second round of the elections. The purpose of the presidential elections is to show the world community that, despite all odds, Afghanistan is progressing under American influence. Nevertheless, the majority of Afghans already know who their next president will be. They realize that American and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces have already decided the next Afghan President.

Voting will be held in 7,000 polling stations for more than three dozen candidates. For this purpose, the Afghan Election Commission has issued voting cards to more than fifteen million people so that they could cast their vote. For the very first time, American and NATO forces will perform security duties, under the supervision of the Afghan National Army, at polling stations and important roads. On the other hand, the Taliban are said to have prepared a plan to sabotage the presidential elections."

Taliban Factor
The Taliban have told the Afghan media that they will block all major roads in Southern and South-Eastern Afghanistan, with the added threat that they will carry out suicide attacks on polling stations and cut off the fingers of those who vote in the elections. According to the latest information, the Taliban have begun to implement their threats by blocking the main highways that link the Southern and South-Eastern provinces of Afghanistan. They have, also, blocked the main highway between Kabul and the southern province of Kandahar, as well as the main roads leading to Ghazni, Maidan, Wardag, Zabal, Logar, Khost, and Paktia.

The Taliban conduct a body-search of all people who travel on these roads. Despite the fact that it is the occasion of Afghan Independence, there is silence everywhere as people stay at home and keep off the streets. The people of the southern provinces have shown some enthusiasm during the election campaign compared to the capital Kabul and other areas, but they are also terribly scared of what might happen on election day.

Allied forces have made tremendous security arrangements to ensure that elections are held in a peaceful atmosphere. Snap checking and patrolling on the highways has been increased. It should be pointed out that direct elections for provincial councils are also being held along with the presidential elections. In addition to aerial patrolling, the election commission has hired seven thousand donkeys to deliver the ballot papers in hilly areas.

Focussing Urban Areas
According to the latest information, elections will be held in urban areas only, where Afghan and Allied forces can move swiftly. Conducting elections in rural Afghanistan is not possible where the Taliban occupy fifty percent of the area during the day and seventy five percent during the night. This fear was expressed by Afghan political and military authorities, as well as the international community.

The current elections are being organized by the Americans, who are paying all the expenses. America has also hired the services of ten thousand armed militia men, in addition to its own troops, for the purpose of holding the elections in a peaceful manner. This militia will perform the duties of securing the polling stations and the ballot boxes.

The Taliban could create problems for holding these elections. They have decided to sabotage the elections at all cost because they think that the elections are a means of providing a new life to foreign forces in Afghanistan. Although small anti-government militant groups in different parts of the country have announced a ceasefire during the election period, the overall situation remains grave. Many people are angry with the Afghan government and the allied countries for not allowing important opponents of the government, Gulbadin Hikmatyar of Hizb-e-Islami (Hikmatyar), and former jihadi Maulvi Jalaluddin Haqqani, to participate in the elections because they had opposed the presidential elections. People said that the government should have invited them both to participate in the elections.

In fact, America and the allied countries have allowed only those persons to participate in the elections who do not criticize America or the allied countries. The main contenders of the elections are former President Hamid Karzai, former Foreign Minister and nominee of the Northern Alliance, Dr Abdullah Abdullah, and former Finance Minister and ex Director of the World Bank, Dr Ashraf Ghani Ahmedzai. Hamid Karzai had full support of America and Britain when he was appointed Afghan President five years ago but, today he does not have the support of NATO countries. He has also failed to gain the support of the Afghan masses. He has maligned himself because of mass corruption in national institutions and, also, due to his involvement in drug smuggling run by his brothers.

During his five-year regime, the southern part of the country, which is mostly Pathan, was constantly targeted by Afghan and allied army operations. These operations also obstructed development programs in Southern and South-Eastern parts of Afghanistan. Karzai has selected two of his deputies for the present elections which has angered the majority of Pathan tribes. They include former head of the Afghan secret agency, KHAD, and former Defense Minister, and prominent leader of the Northern Alliance, General Qasim Fahim, and leader of the minority Hazara tribe, Mohammed Karim Khalili. To ensure his victory in the elections, Hamid Karzai has obtained the support of a prominent Northern Alliance leader and former Communist General, Abdur Rashid Dostam. Karzai allowed exiled Dostam to return to Afghanistan on condition of his support in the elections. It should be pointed out that a demand is being put forward for an investigation against General Dostam for killing thousands of unarmed Taliban towards the end of 2001.

Emerging Scenario
The position of Hamid Karzai is very weak because of all these factors. Moreover, his friend, General Pervez Musharraf, is also not present in Pakistan to support him. Pervez Musharraf had secured all the votes of the Afghan refugees based in Pakistan for Hamid Karzai during the previous elections."

According to political analysts, America does not trust Dr Abdullah Abdullah because he is a nominee of the Northern Alliance. He is well-connected with Iran, India and, especially, with Russia simultaneously, and is the common nominee of all parties included in the Northern Alliance. During the election campaign, he has threatened more than once that his supporters could become furious if he loses the presidential election, and that the law and order situation could further deteriorate. According to Dr Abdullah Abdullah, the elections could be massively rigged with the help of foreign powers, while his supporters would not tolerate these riggings.

According to most analysts on Afghanistan, America will arrange Hamid Karzai's defeat merely to shut Dr Abdullah Abdullah's mouth. This would pave the way for Dr Ashraf Ghani Ahmedzai's victory. Be as it may, the presidential elections will be completed in two phases since none of the candidates will be able to secure fifty percent or more votes in the first phase.

US and British Forces in Afghanistan

Official figures issued by the British Defense Ministry indicate that 20 soldiers have been killed in the ongoing war in Afghanistan since the beginning of July. The figure is high by all standards because it brings up to about 200 the number of only the British soldiers who have been killed since the beginning of this war eight years ago.

The British people who have been following these figures and their significance began to feel uneasy about these figures that are repeated almost on a daily basis. They also feel uneasy about the lack of any official clarification by their government of the policies that are followed in Afghanistan and the logical reasons for the continuation of these policies even though they began to be counterproductive in most cases.

What also worries the British public opinion and some prominent writers in the British media is that the labor government, through statements by its Prime Minister Gordon Brown and the foreign and defense ministers, asserts that victory is inevitably coming, while the facts on the ground completely contradict these statements.

Strong Hold of Taliban Movement
Some people may argue that the rise in the number of the dead among the British soldiers is attributed to the current NATO forces' attack on the Taliban Movement's stronghold in the Helmand Province where the Pashtun Tribe to which the Taliban Movement belongs resides.

They may also argue that these human losses are the result of an advance and victories achieved on the ground. But these victories are temporary and the result of an accurate tactic used by the Taliban Movement. Using this tactic, the movement withdraws from before the huge Western military machine and then resumes the attack on it in qualitative commando operations of the "hit and run" style.

The US Administration increased the number of its troops in Afghanistan to more than 68,000 and asked its ally, Britain, to dispatch 2,000 additional soldiers, but the latter sent only 800 soldiers. Britain sent these soldiers amid intensive criticisms by the military and the media that cast doubt on the success of this move and speak about the British forces' bad armament.

However, the increase in the number of the troops means an increase in the number of the dead in the ranks of these forces and in the ranks of the Taliban Movement. Nevertheless, this increase does not mean that achieving the goal, in other words, destroying the Taliban Movement, has become imminent. The reason is that this increase might lead to temporary victories but these victories will evaporate in the long run, exactly like the situation that we saw in Iraq one way or another following the formal US withdrawal from major cities, namely from the capital, Baghdad.

US Big Gamble
The US President Barack Obama is making a big gamble by making Afghanistan the "jewel in the crown" of his administration's foreign policy, because achieving an accomplishment in this country that has resisted all invaders seems near impossible, if not truly impossible.

The British Government made a grave mistake when it followed the George W. Bush Administration and served as its largest partner in the war on Iraq. And perhaps it will make a bigger and graver mistake by following the present Obama Administration and sinking deeper in the mud of the war in Afghanistan. This is particularly true in light of the fact that the modern British history includes two bitter defeats in that country, and we would not be exaggerating if we said the third one is inevitably on its way.

Political or Diplomatic Solutions
The US and British officials began to admit that military force alone cannot achieve the desired results in Afghanistan, that is to say, to destroy Taliban. This is an important admission, but translating it into effective steps or policies on the ground remains arguable, particularly because those who seek political or diplomatic solutions count on the occurrence of a split within the Taliban Movement or the formation of awakening forces by winning over tribes that are hostile to Taliban.

However, it is difficult for a split to take place within the Taliban Movement because the cohesion of Taliban is based on tribal foundations. Besides, the statement that there is a moderate wing and an extremist one within Taliban has been proved to be untrue throughout the past 15 years, that is to say, nearly since the movement was founded.

As for the incitement of tribes the against Taliban and winning their leaders over with money and the formation of awakening forces, the Soviets made an attempt in this regard and so did the British, but the results were disappointing.

Nevertheless, a dialogue with Taliban in order to secure an honorable withdrawal and reduce the losses is the only way before Britain and the United States. And it is better to resort to this option early rather than late, exactly as was the case in Iraq, Vietnam, and other parts of the world.